| Latest Forum Topics / Avarga |
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UPP
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eric998
Supreme |
18-Jan-2021 10:38
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250 wall might be broken.. lets see..
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Contratrader
Elite |
18-Jan-2021 10:37
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Today due date for 12/1 high volume.. Isdn also roll higher liao...This stock the BB not working ? still 34... | ||||
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JerryMaple
Veteran |
18-Jan-2021 10:35
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Busy.. Load Ceap!! My Tp 60cents minimum..
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kandinsky
Master |
18-Jan-2021 10:17
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The company won't do share buyback if they know the shares are going to plunge. They know positive earnings result coming.
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Piston88
Supreme |
18-Jan-2021 09:21
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May be good news coming | ||||
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PQTPQK
Supreme |
18-Jan-2021 09:19
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good...
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Joelton
Supreme |
18-Jan-2021 09:06
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Avarga
Avarga led the buyback tally, buying back 10 million shares for a consideration of S$2,959,551. As of Jan 14, the current buyback mandate had seen the company purchase 1.72 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares) as of the date of the current share buy-back resolution.
 
Formerly known as UPP Holdings, Avarga operates three core businesses that include paper manufacturing, power generation and building materials distribution.
 
The company operates in five countries, employs more than 800 people and is expected to report its FY20 (ended Dec 30) financial results before the end of February.
 
The group' s revenue for its H1FY20 was S$720.3 million, compared to S$688.6 million for its H1FY19.
 
The overall gross profit for its H1FY20 increased by S$10.2 million or 14 per cent with revenue and gross profit from the building products business contributing at least 88 per cent of the group' s performance for both comparison periods on a consolidated basis.
 
In Avarga' s Q3FY20 business update back on Nov 13, for its statement on building products distribution, it referred to the Q3FY20 press release and earnings report announced by Taiga Building Products (Taiga), a firm in which it has an interest.
 
On May 22, 2020, Avarga announced it was increasing its interest in Taiga, including the interest held through Avarga Canada, from 67.9 per cent to 69.7 per cent of the issued common shares of Taiga. For its Q3FY20 (ended Sept 30), Taiga reported its consolidated net sales had increased 40 per cent from Q3FY19, largely attributed to higher selling prices for its commodity products.
 
Avarga maintains a market value of more than S$300 million. Its share price rallied from 15.6 Singapore cents per share at the end of 2019 to 28.0 cents per share at the end of 2020, with 1.22 cents paid in dividends over the calendar year. The company ended 2020 as a top 100 stock by turnover, up from its ranking as a top 300 stock by turnover for the first six months of the year.
 
Global Investments bought back 3,049,800 shares for a consideration of S$432,762, at an average price of 14.19 Singapore cents per share. As of Jan 14, the current buyback mandate had seen Global Investments purchase 3.55 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares) on the current mandate. The preceding share buyback mandate saw it buying back 8.52 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares).
 
Director and substantial shareholder transactions
 
The five trading sessions saw just over 40 changes in director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for 25 primary-listed stocks. This included five company director acquisitions, with one disposal filed, and substantial shareholders filing 12 acquisitions and nine disposals.
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anthony2978
Member |
18-Jan-2021 08:53
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the highest but back share stock, now see movement | ||||
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ghetto
Master |
18-Jan-2021 00:10
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Minimally should be about 40 but hopefully 50... | ||||
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PQTPQK
Supreme |
17-Jan-2021 23:51
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It should test 0.40 soon
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MarcLim
Veteran |
17-Jan-2021 22:49
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56 super power if reach. Huat to siao.  No change If above 355/36, next 40...if drop 320/325 good px if buy DYDD Huat all.
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PQTPQK
Supreme |
17-Jan-2021 20:37
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let cheong.. | ||||
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JerryMaple
Veteran |
17-Jan-2021 08:22
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Thanks for your update.. However based on the 4quarter demand, I doubt avarga net profit will drop 44% as compare to q3..It should be a slight drop or maybe match q3 performance.. Weather was good enough for builder to continue their backlog and surging demand that's why the price of Lumber has been climbing up during the winter.. Highest is 900+usd.. You should lower your PE calculation as a safety margin to enter the stock.. 10X is abit on the high side.. 6-8X P. E should be reasonable... Cheers AVG holders..
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superstartup
Supreme |
17-Jan-2021 00:24
Yells: "Enjoy doing Fundamental Research" |
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To recap, with my additions in red: On 26 Aug 2020: AVARGA: " Fair value is S$0.43 at the minimum," says KGIValuation & Action:      We think a fair value of S$0.43 is the minimum for Avarga.We utilise a 10x FY2020F P/E, which is based on the 3-year historical average of Avarga. Avarga& rsquo s crown jewel is its 70.8%-owned Canadian-listed building material distribution company - Taiga Building Products (TBL CN). We forecast Taiga& rsquo s 3Q20 earnings to jump 78% QoQ as it benefits from higher lumber prices and strong demand, but conservatively estimate that 4Q20 will drop 44% QoQ on the back of a seasonally weak 4Q. Taiga Net Profit: 1Q C$6.7m 2Q C$13.1m 3Q C$33.4m      (increase of 155% QoQ. Well exceeded KGI' s earnings forecast for Taiga) 4Q (Pending. Noted that Lumber prices remain high for 4Q as well (well above the $400 for Q1 and Q2), and wave of renovations and home building continues to outpace seasonal averages, etc. . Extracted for easy reference:  " Lumber futures fell to below $845 per 1,000 board feet in the second week of January, as investors unwound long positions after a rally to above $900 earlier in the month. Still, the demand and supply fundaments remain supportive for the lumber market, as the wave of renovations and home building continues to outpace seasonal averages thanks to builder-friendly winter weather and new Covid-19 lockdowns while near term supply remains tight after lumber mills closed for maintenance." As a result, we estimate profits after minority interest of at least S$41mn for Avarga in FY2020F. Assuming 4Q net profit for Taiga dropped 44% QoQ as forcast by KGI: Taiga 4Q Net Profit = 56% of 3Q = C$18.7m Whole Year Taiga Net Profit = C$71.9 Avarga Interest in Taiga = 70% So Avarga' s share of Taiga' s Whole Year Earnings = 70% of C$71.9 = C$50.3m = S$52.5m = 5.64 Singapore Cent per share (Avarga OS = 930.8m after latest share buy back) Our fair value does not include the value of Avarga& rsquo s two other businesses (paper manufacturing and power plant in Myanmar), and hence we believe that our valuation is on the conservative side. We utilise a 10x FY2020F P/E, which is based on the 3-year historical average of Avarga. 10x FY2020 P/E = 5.64 Singapore Cent x 10 =      56.4 Singapore Cent Above extracted from the following resource materials: https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/943-2020/13734-avarga-fair-value-is-s-0-43-at-the-minimum-says-kgi https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber https://www.taigabuilding.com/media/news-updates Please do your own due diligence. Just sharing tabulations. Best is CGS-CIMB starts to cover Avarga.  |
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tcctcc
Senior |
16-Jan-2021 11:27
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Definitely worthwhile to hold till their result released. | ||||
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kandinsky
Master |
15-Jan-2021 21:11
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Hope the management do a few more buybacks.
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pkli899
Supreme |
15-Jan-2021 20:02
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Unlikely to go back to below 30. The Tongs' will be first to defend. They have already shown and warned those who try to press down the price. |
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JerryMaple
Veteran |
15-Jan-2021 18:56
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Boat already sail.. This time round no return.. Next stop at 40cents..
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kandinsky
Master |
15-Jan-2021 18:49
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Hope the boat never returns lol
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shk363
Elite |
15-Jan-2021 18:16
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waited 2 days at 29.5... boat refused to come back | ||||
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