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Latest Forum Topics / Rex Intl    Last:0.069    -0.002  Post Reply
The future a constructive discussion
Sharetrade8888
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25-Jun-2022 13:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		About investors confidence, some will leave new ones will come looking at the march SSH list the long term SSH looks like more of the same but I saw a new name Morgan Stanley holding 27+ Mio shares.
With regard to dividends isn't it what we HV been hoping for? From zero to something and even more over time when company gets even stronger
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Sharetrade8888
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25-Jun-2022 13:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I wonder how an earlier investor of this stk need to do damage control as px is still way above 2yrs ago? No offence paiseh
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Sharetrade8888
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25-Jun-2022 13:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi wud u wanna rework the numbers for 1half again as ur calculations may hv double counted the production costs hence wudnt it be more accurate if u used the gross profits to deduct the funds used of 80+Mio which works out to be a profit of about 10mio USD?

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:36) Posted:

My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 

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stanip
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25-Jun-2022 11:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		According to Rex report, the $80m costs were for Q1 and Q2.
Here are the trends comparing to Q3 and Q4 last year. (not sure the M& A impact though...and how much will be capitalzied for future depreciation)
The company didn' t bother to give any comment to give us comfort which in my view was not a good sign.

21Q3  $6.1m
21Q$  $12.4m
22Q1 Actual: $44.9m
22Q2 Forecast $35.3m

Given the nature of these expenditures, it is highly unlikely it will go back to FY21 level in 22H2 so quickly.
You can make your guess what those numbers will be like and do a projection for full year FY22.... 

In my view, Rex is facing serious challenges in 3 fronts this year:    P& L due to volume damages and one off costs, Cashflow due to dividend and all these new costs and shareholder confidence crisis.
I held Rex for 2 years and had taken some damage control actions myself... sigh.



 

Share7      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 17:45) Posted:

The 80M is full year expenses for FY21, right? If right, then 1H is still profitable as both sets of your calculation already accounted the production costs of Yumna & Brage.

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:36) Posted:

My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 


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Sharetrade8888
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24-Jun-2022 18:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hiya his ebita calculations shud use the gross number as the exploration and production costs projected and incurred for 1st half includes exploration production office & staff expenses etc...
As for his 2nd half of 2022 his projected number sounds abit conservative but its always good to be conservative. Of cos im kinda more interested in the khufai dig and other business developments.
Happy wkend ya. Take care cheers 🍻

Share7      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 17:45) Posted:

The 80M is full year expenses for FY21, right? If right, then 1H is still profitable as both sets of your calculation already accounted the production costs of Yumna & Brage.

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:36) Posted:

My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 


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Share7
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24-Jun-2022 17:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The 80M is full year expenses for FY21, right? If right, then 1H is still profitable as both sets of your calculation already accounted the production costs of Yumna & Brage.

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:36) Posted:

My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 

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ahberngh
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24-Jun-2022 17:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		So bad, with oil over US$100 per barrel.

Unbelievable.

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:36) Posted:

My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 

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blesskeemun
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24-Jun-2022 16:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		My guess is:
Oman +Brage: 1H' 22 EBITA: -US$22M (Due to higher ops costs reported before at US$80.28M and lower production of Oman)
                          2H' 22 EBITA: US$30~40M
                          FY2022: US$15~25M

 
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blesskeemun
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24-Jun-2022 16:26     
 
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EBITA Tracking of 2022              
Yumna Field             Rex owns 91.81 of Masirah/Masirah 65% vs. Omani Gov 35%
CONTRACT Actual     Prod Production Monthly Rex Owned (%) Daily Production Monthly Prod Rex Owned (%)
MONTH AVE LOW HIGH bpd Days Prod Gorss Revenue Costs Costs Net Revenue
JAN  91.21 77.04 91.70 7,518 31 233,058 12,685,565 80,000 2,480,000 10,205,565
FEB 100.99 87.72 105.79 2,237 28 62,636 3,774,902 80,000 2,240,000 1,534,902
MAR 105.47 96.95 133.09 4,637 31 143,747 9,047,552 80,000 2,480,000 6,567,552
APR 107.91 96.93 139.13 1,271 30 38,130 2,455,454 80,000 2,400,000 55,454
MAY 122.84 101.30 125.28 4,800 31 148,800 10,908,024 80,000 2,480,000 8,428,024
JUN 119.27 112.50 125.16 1,600 30 48,000 3,416,456 80,000 2,400,000 1,016,456
JUL 110.00     3,200 31 99,200 6,511,900 80,000 2,480,000 4,031,900
AUG 110.00     7,500 31 232,500 15,262,265 80,000 2,480,000 12,782,265
SEP 110.00     7,500 30 225,000 14,769,934 80,000 2,400,000 12,369,934
OCT 110.00     7,500 31 232,500 15,262,265 80,000 2,480,000 12,782,265
NOV 110.00     7,500 30 225,000 14,769,934 80,000 2,400,000 12,369,934
DEC 110.00     7,500 31 232,500 15,262,265 80,000 2,480,000 12,782,265
2022 AVE 108.97 95.41 120.03 55,245 365 1,921,071 124,126,515 80,000 29,200,000 94,926,515
      AVE 5,230            
                     
Depletion Tracker of Yumna Field: As at Jan' 21 (Reserve 2P is 8,600,000mmboe)        
2P  YTD Prod  Bal ROD (Mth) EXP            
6,600,000 626,371 5,973,629 16.6 May' 23            
Adjusted Jun and Jul' 22 estimated productions:
1. Jun' 22 Run (4,800 X10)/30 (Halted since 11/6)=1,600b/d
2. Jul' 22 Run (5,000X20)/31 (Since replacement of parts to be completed by 10 Jul' 22 assuming weather is good)=3,200b/d
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Longtermer
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24-Jun-2022 16:23     
 
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 Alert Admin
FY2020 - oil $34 - loss USD15.2m
FY2021 - oil $67 - profit USD78.9m
FY2022 - oil $105 to $110 - profit USD ???
DYODD - see the BIG picture

Longtermer      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 16:13) Posted:

Rex International Holding Ltd (REXI SP): More catalysts for oil

  • Rex International Holding Limited operates as an independent oil exploration and production company. It operates through Oil and Gas, and Non-Oil and Gas segments. The company offers Rex Virtual Drilling, a liquid hydrocarbon indicator, which uses seismic data to search for oil. The company is involved in the oil and gas exploration and production activities with a focus in Oman and Norway.
  • Russian oil ban.  Yesterday, European Union leaders agreed to pursue a partial ban on Russian oil, paving the way for a sixth package of sanctions to punish Russia and its president, Mr Vladimir Putin, for the invasion of Ukraine.
    The sanctions would forbid the purchase of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia delivered to member states by sea but include a temporary exemption for pipeline crude. This immediately covers more than two-thirds of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine. Officials and diplomats still have to agree on the technical details and the sanctions must be formally adopted by all 27 nations.
  •  
    Harvest time for oil & gas companies.  On 28 Feb, Rex reported FY2021 net profit of US$78.9mn, a significant turnaround from the US$15.2mn loss in FY2020. This was on the back of US$67 per barrel average realised oil price in FY2021, almost double compared to US$34 it realised in FY2020.
  • Positive consensus estimates.  According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the company currently has a rating of 3 BUYS, 0 HOLD and 0 SELL, with a 12M TP of S$0.58, representing approximately a 70.6% potential upside as of 31 May 2022.
  • While we have a technical buy TP of S$0.365, we have a fundamental outperform rating and TP of S$0.54 based on DCF-backed valuations.
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Longtermer
Elite
24-Jun-2022 16:13     
 
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Rex International Holding Ltd (REXI SP): More catalysts for oil

  • Rex International Holding Limited operates as an independent oil exploration and production company. It operates through Oil and Gas, and Non-Oil and Gas segments. The company offers Rex Virtual Drilling, a liquid hydrocarbon indicator, which uses seismic data to search for oil. The company is involved in the oil and gas exploration and production activities with a focus in Oman and Norway.
  • Russian oil ban.  Yesterday, European Union leaders agreed to pursue a partial ban on Russian oil, paving the way for a sixth package of sanctions to punish Russia and its president, Mr Vladimir Putin, for the invasion of Ukraine.
    The sanctions would forbid the purchase of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia delivered to member states by sea but include a temporary exemption for pipeline crude. This immediately covers more than two-thirds of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine. Officials and diplomats still have to agree on the technical details and the sanctions must be formally adopted by all 27 nations.
  •  
    Harvest time for oil & gas companies.  On 28 Feb, Rex reported FY2021 net profit of US$78.9mn, a significant turnaround from the US$15.2mn loss in FY2020. This was on the back of US$67 per barrel average realised oil price in FY2021, almost double compared to US$34 it realised in FY2020.
  • Positive consensus estimates.  According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the company currently has a rating of 3 BUYS, 0 HOLD and 0 SELL, with a 12M TP of S$0.58, representing approximately a 70.6% potential upside as of 31 May 2022.
  • While we have a technical buy TP of S$0.365, we have a fundamental outperform rating and TP of S$0.54 based on DCF-backed valuations.
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Longtermer
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24-Jun-2022 15:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Dont need to be concern about technical maintenance and repairs issues.
It is a cycle and production efficiency will ramp up to increase rate eventually over time.
The oil price is the main determinant for the company revenue and profitability.
At the moment, oil price is about 60% more than last year avg and production costs roughly the same or marginally more, profits will be at record high.
Many oil companies are reporting unprecedent profits and REX is no different.
Current price is being pressed down and should see a reversal in time to come.
Be steady.. Cheers
 
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kiattt2
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24-Jun-2022 14:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yup and that is the reason why the share price will not go up despite high oil price. Also there is a reason why the company isn' t buying back any shares at this company price despite the price being so attractive. They know things that investor doesn' t

doremifatso      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 13:59) Posted:

At first, shut down to change tank. Then, shut down to change MOPU. Then whn finally start up, realised that electric pump got issue. After fixing the pump, then got minor flowline leakage and need to shut down again since 11 June. After everything is fixed, in october/september, they probably need to shut down yet again to change the electric pump. Really.... how come so many production issues one after another? Seems like the company is not cut out for production and should have stayed in the exploration business.
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doremifatso
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24-Jun-2022 13:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		At first, shut down to change tank. Then, shut down to change MOPU. Then whn finally start up, realised that electric pump got issue. After fixing the pump, then got minor flowline leakage and need to shut down again since 11 June. After everything is fixed, in october/september, they probably need to shut down yet again to change the electric pump. Really.... how come so many production issues one after another? Seems like the company is not cut out for production and should have stayed in the exploration business.
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Sharetrade8888
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24-Jun-2022 13:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Get used to it liao if not how those shorties convert their virtual gains after interest costs into real money leh lol take advatage of their action to max up returns potential for ourselves imho lah

kt3152      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 13:40) Posted:

Seems like someone is trying to press down the price to collect cheap..... I may be wrong though....
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kt3152
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24-Jun-2022 13:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Seems like someone is trying to press down the price to collect cheap..... I may be wrong though....
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Sharetrade8888
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24-Jun-2022 13:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lol interesting thots thou flawless diamonds are hard to find and comes at a hefty premium px

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 12:51) Posted:

Recommendated immediate cost savings measures to REX and all subsidiaries: (In order to compensate the lost of PRODUCTION QTY in 1H/22)
1. Stop pay rise set variable portion of salary (75%) link to production result and ocurance of number of incidence 
2. Reduce director fees (75%)
3. Fly economy class and stay budget hotel for all business trip and all level of staff
4. Move office to Pulau Ubin (Preparing all to be survive as if in field
5. Send all REXI Singapore staff to experience the work on the field of Oman and Norway especially during monsoon period.
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ahberngh
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24-Jun-2022 13:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Most ceos and directors pay themselves high salaries but are not worth what they are paid.

This one of the main reasons why sgx is in the state it has been in for the past one or two decades.

SGX needs a reset with  new vision, just throw out whatever deadwood populating it currently.

finjungle      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 12:58) Posted:

Good hard try. Try harder. 

All management is the same.   Look at Hong Fok. The directors are paying themselves so much that they are laughing all their ways to the banks. 

The Singapore stock market is indeed a market worse than a thief' s market. 

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 12:51) Posted:

Recommendated immediate cost savings measures to REX and all subsidiaries: (In order to compensate the lost of PRODUCTION QTY in 1H/22)
1. Stop pay rise set variable portion of salary (75%) link to production result and ocurance of number of incidence 
2. Reduce director fees (75%)
3. Fly economy class and stay budget hotel for all business trip and all level of staff
4. Move office to Pulau Ubin (Preparing all to be survive as if in field
5. Send all REXI Singapore staff to experience the work on the field of Oman and Norway especially during monsoon period.
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finjungle
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24-Jun-2022 12:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good hard try. Try harder. 

All management is the same.   Look at Hong Fok. The directors are paying themselves so much that they are laughing all their ways to the banks. 

The Singapore stock market is indeed a market worse than a thief' s market. 

blesskeemun      ( Date: 24-Jun-2022 12:51) Posted:

Recommendated immediate cost savings measures to REX and all subsidiaries: (In order to compensate the lost of PRODUCTION QTY in 1H/22)
1. Stop pay rise set variable portion of salary (75%) link to production result and ocurance of number of incidence 
2. Reduce director fees (75%)
3. Fly economy class and stay budget hotel for all business trip and all level of staff
4. Move office to Pulau Ubin (Preparing all to be survive as if in field
5. Send all REXI Singapore staff to experience the work on the field of Oman and Norway especially during monsoon period.
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blesskeemun
Master
24-Jun-2022 12:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Recommendated immediate cost savings measures to REX and all subsidiaries: (In order to compensate the lost of PRODUCTION QTY in 1H/22)
1. Stop pay rise set variable portion of salary (75%) link to production result and ocurance of number of incidence 
2. Reduce director fees (75%)
3. Fly economy class and stay budget hotel for all business trip and all level of staff
4. Move office to Pulau Ubin (Preparing all to be survive as if in field
5. Send all REXI Singapore staff to experience the work on the field of Oman and Norway especially during monsoon period.
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