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Japfa IPO 15 August
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finance
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15-Oct-2014 15:54
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Is Japfa a good stock to buy at current price for upside if hold for a few months? Any views? |
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finance
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15-Oct-2014 14:52
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Have you sold your 25 lots of Japfa which you bought at 84 cts? Or are still holding on to your these 25 lots of Japfa now?
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ash902
Veteran |
11-Oct-2014 11:30
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drop below IPO price liao because of market sentiments. I feel its a good buy for long term hold, hopefully they introduce dividend policy. |
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pltbp08
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26-Sep-2014 11:02
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Japfa - CIMB Initiate with Add rating, sum-of-parts target at S$1.25 We like Japfa&rsquo s market positioning as 1) a clear No.2 in the Indonesian animal protein market and 2) as one of the early-mover, independent foreign dairy company, expanding in China&rsquo s upstream dairy sector. We see Japfa is a play on the rising wages of Asia&rsquo s middle-lower income population and the inevitable shift of food sources to industrialised farms. The group&rsquo s origins started in Indonesia. Japfa Tbk (JPFA IJ, IDR1,295, Not Rated) was a single-country, single-product food staple company. We believe Japfa Ltd&rsquo s leap into China will turn it into a dual-country, dual product food staple company. With beef and Indochina set in place to be future growth pillars, we envision Japfa Ltd to be a truly diversified Asia food staple company in future. We initiate coverage on Japfa Ltd with an Add rating and a target price of S$1.25, on a SOTP valuation basis. Japfa has a strong animal protein business in Indonesia and peripheral emerging markets, but the key earnings catalyst in the next few years is the rapidly expanding dairy business in China. With beef and Indochina as future growth pillars, Japfa is set to become a truly diversified agri-food business that spans the entire value chain, producing different animal proteins and entrenching itself in Asia&rsquo s most populous markets. We initiate with an Add, with the roll out of its five farms in China over the next three years as an earnings catalyst. Our SOP-based target price implies 15.2x CY16 P/E. Protein for Asia&rsquo s populous developing countries. Food consumption patterns show that a person&rsquo s meat intake increases substantially as his income level rises to the US$2k-6k range. Japfa produces and sells animal protein in Indonesia (GDP per capita: S$3,375), Vietnam (US$1,910) and China (US$6,807). It also plans to sell meat in India and Myanmar. These are Asia&rsquo s most populous developing nations, where animal protein consumption is already outpacing GDP growth. In Indonesia, Japfa is the No.2 chicken supplier after CPIN. Management seems to have a good grasp of the business&rsquo s biggest risk (disease) and has in-house vaccines to respond to outbreaks. It even supplies vaccines to CPIN. Upstream dairy, a sweet spot in China. The supply shortage in China&rsquo s milk industry badly needs to be resolved. Since the melamine incident in 2008, buyers have flocked to foreign imports or established milk retail brands, augmenting their bargaining power over small dairy farms. Faced with the poor selling price for milk (partly due to the lack of quality), the small farms sold their livestock to the beef market as beef prices have tripled in the past six years. Hence, China&rsquo s milk output growth has stagnated, even as milk demand rose by 5% CAGR since 2008. Large, industrialised dairy farms (like Japfa) are investing in new capacity as small farms exit. The large farms form only 15% of the market, their milk output is of higher quality. They are the answer to both China&rsquo s milk quality issues and supply shortage. &ldquo Premiumisation&rdquo of food. Food scandals will send consumers gravitating to the trusted brands and big brands will turn to the most consistent, high-quality sources typically the large-scale industrialised farms. Large farms&rsquo pricing premiums are a reflection of demand. In our view, the industrialisation of farms is an inevitable trend. |
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pltbp08
Member |
25-Sep-2014 11:18
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A meaty proposition. - DBSV An integrated Dairy, Animal Protein, and Consumer Foods producer with presence in Asia&rsquo s fastgrowing markets. First-mover advantage with premium pricing in Dairy to drive 53% earnings CAGR in FY13-16F and offer core ROE of 9.2-11.8% in FY14F-16F. Japfa is a fully integrated player in a high entry barrier industry within rising middle-class markets. Initiating with BUY for 36% upside to S$1.16 TP. The right segment at the right place. Japfa Limited (Japfa) has been actively expanding in all of its business segments not only in Indonesia, but also in China, India, Vietnam and Myanmar &ndash where per capita demand for dairy, animal protein and branded consumer foods is still rising. With over 40 years of track record and significant market shares in most of its businesses, we expect Japfa to continue capitalising on Asia&rsquo s demographic dividend. We expect the group to deliver FY13-16F bottom line CAGR of 53% and core ROE of 9.2% -11.8% in FY14F-16F. Structural opportunity. We value Japfa at US$1,651m (or S$2,039m), based on sum-of-parts valuation, employing comparative EV/EBITDA multiples. Our TP implies FY15F PER of 12.5x and PEG ratio of 0.24. Japfa&rsquo s growth will primarily be driven by capacity expansions in China and Indonesia, where strong dairy and animal protein demand continues to drive both volume and prices. Strong relative positioning. Japfa&rsquo s prospective earnings growth rate is superior to its peers in Indonesia, thanks to its fast-growing dairy segment, significant market shares and brand recognition. Japfa&rsquo s competitive advantage lies in its bio-security measures, high milk yield, full integration model (now being replicated across its market presence) and widely recognised So Good and Greenfields brands. Initiating with BUY. As the second largest poultry player and an established branded dairy producer in Indonesia, as well as a fast-growing dairy farmer in China Japfa is a beneficiary of Asia&rsquo s growing requirement for animal protein. We believe the counter remains undervalued at the current level. |
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yingli
Veteran |
11-Sep-2014 22:42
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? Yup still holding lol....me done homework one.
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dragonn
Veteran |
11-Sep-2014 21:44
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Likely due to exercise of Overallotment, Don' t worry, unless you see bird flu strike Japfa, everything should be fine. This industry is still sustainable, and looks good, likely I' ll let go first 0.810/0.820 (if it drops) and wait for price stablisation then buy back. Can come back for Japfa During Nov/Dec
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bishan22
Supreme |
11-Sep-2014 20:52
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The trend similar to Tetratech. Scary.......... |
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kimchi_korea
Member |
11-Sep-2014 17:18
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Are you sure still keep for $1?
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yingli
Veteran |
11-Sep-2014 13:03
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Done researching $1 tp.....and still waiting lol
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dragonn
Veteran |
11-Sep-2014 09:50
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This counter is still good the only time when I let go is when it breaks 0.80, but you guys do your own research
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dragonn
Veteran |
08-Sep-2014 09:35
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I believe the recent down could be the bird flu scare http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/111186/business-in-brief-5-9.html Disease-free breeding areas are setup in many Agriculture industry to prevent the spread of these diseases. |
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dragonn
Veteran |
04-Sep-2014 09:26
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You are really observant for the movement.
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yingli
Veteran |
03-Sep-2014 21:14
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dragonn
Veteran |
03-Sep-2014 21:12
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I saw the strong hands you' re talking about
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think2profit
Master |
03-Sep-2014 14:59
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Seem like shares have been moving fr weak hands to strong hands. We may see a strong spike to above $1 soon. |
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dragonn
Veteran |
02-Sep-2014 22:13
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Japfa is currently trading at it' s support level 0.915 currently, it' s a good stock with potential growth of 100% to 200% over the year or 2. From the trades that I' ve noticed any lots selling below 0.935 is below the trading average for the past weeks. http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2099557/data-ekonomi-ri-penopang-laju-ihsg (An article 14 hours ago) Some of the counter recommendations by Indonesian stock analyst on Indonesia stock exchange market. PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM), PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR), PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) untuk jadi pertimbangan pelaku pasar. |
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dragonn
Veteran |
30-Aug-2014 12:54
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http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/japfas-1st-half-profit-drops-34-soaring-costs/ Apologize for this article, Japfa Comfeed section drops 34% profit However the overall profit increased by 11% in 2nd half
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dragonn
Veteran |
29-Aug-2014 17:26
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http://vnmoney.nld.com.vn/vnmoney/ti-phu-van-dao-indonesia-lam-xieu-long-nha-giau-viet-20140829093217742.htm Article posted 9 hours ago, Vietnam is currently recieve large amount of money from investors for its property. On top of that Indonesia Giant Livestock Japfa is looking for opportunities over in Vietnam to facilitate it' s growth. Other than big opportunities for Japan for Japfa, agriculture industry has opportunity opened in Vietnam. This would bring Japfa a greater revenue in the comings! Looking forward for more $ |
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dragonn
Veteran |
28-Aug-2014 21:19
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http://m.sindonews.com/read/895933/32/japfa-bukukan-penurunan-laba-bersih-34
In the meantime japfa comfeed did extremely well! |
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