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Latest Forum Topics / DBS    Last:42.08    -0.22  Post Reply
ICBC Estimated Fair Value - Willis Ow
famouspinky
Supreme
28-Aug-2017 20:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Time frame for return does not equate to when close shop.

Hei123      ( Date: 28-Aug-2017 13:17) Posted:

A very special msg from willisow to famouspinky.

To my most respected grandmastress famouspinky. ICBC, a thread which I specially left behind in sj
for my dearest grandmastress famouspink have hit its fair value of hk$6.04, fetching a 44% return.
Again, I humbly ask my grandmastress famouspinky, any comment on value investing without time frame?

Below a nice and relax entertaining story for you ah, wahahaha ..................cheekysmileycheeky
Some year' s down the road your pinky daughter got married n one day you brought your pinky daughter n son in law
to attend your long tiem good friend' s business opening ceremony.  During the event, your son in law asked your good friend,
" towkay, what is the time frame u set to close shop your business ah?" . Your good friend immediately face black n decline to answer
becos first day of his biz open he was asked to set a time frame for his biz to close shop. Your son in law see your good friend didn' t
reply n he follow by saying, " my pinky mother in law said investing without a time frame is absurb, a very famous quote
which can be found in sj ah" .  Your good friend immediately unfriend you the next moment ............sadsurprisesad
wahahaha ..................tough life    cryingcryingcrying
 

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Hei123
Senior
28-Aug-2017 13:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A very special msg from willisow to famouspinky.

To my most respected grandmastress famouspinky. ICBC, a thread which I specially left behind in sj
for my dearest grandmastress famouspink have hit its fair value of hk$6.04, fetching a 44% return.
Again, I humbly ask my grandmastress famouspinky, any comment on value investing without time frame?

Below a nice and relax entertaining story for you ah, wahahaha ..................cheekysmileycheeky
Some year' s down the road your pinky daughter got married n one day you brought your pinky daughter n son in law
to attend your long tiem good friend' s business opening ceremony.  During the event, your son in law asked your good friend,
" towkay, what is the time frame u set to close shop your business ah?" . Your good friend immediately face black n decline to answer
becos first day of his biz open he was asked to set a time frame for his biz to close shop. Your son in law see your good friend didn' t
reply n he follow by saying, " my pinky mother in law said investing without a time frame is absurb, a very famous quote
which can be found in sj ah" .  Your good friend immediately unfriend you the next moment ............sadsurprisesad
wahahaha ..................tough life    cryingcryingcrying
 
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jeremyow
Master
31-Mar-2017 12:16     
 
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Thanks Willis again for your generous sharing! Hope your donation campaign for helping the strays can grow even more with more people benefitting from your investment sharing and contributing to help the strays in turn! laugh 

willisow      ( Date: 31-Mar-2017 12:01) Posted:



Tough Life........

 

 
Brokers' Latest Ratings & TPs on ICBC (Table)
2017/03/31 11:37
 
 
 
 
 
 
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SHOW:  STOCK INFO    SHORT SELL 
 
 


After close yesterday (30 March), ICBC (01398.HK)    -0.010 (-0.195%)        Short selling  $169.01M   Ratio  15.995%      announced that for the year ended 31 December 2016, net profit amounted to RMB278.249 billion, representing a yearly increase of 0.4%, slightly higher than median of brokers' forecast (RMB277.251 billion). EPS amounted to 77 fen final dividend amounted to 23.43 fen (2015: 23.33 fen).

12 brokers updated their ratings and target prices:

Brokers/ Ratings/ Target prices(HK$)
Jefferies/ Buy/ 7.6
Morgan Stanley/ Overweight/ 7.2
Nomura/ Buy/ 6.92
Goldman Sachs/ Buy/ 6.6
UBS/ Buy/ 6.3
Credit Suisse/ Outperform/ 6.3
Macquarie/ Outperform/ 6.3
JPMorgan/ Overweight/ 6.15
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Buy/ 6.02-> 5.96 
Deutsche Bank/ Buy/ 5.73
Citigroup/ Buy/ 5.42
HSBC Global Research/ Hold/ 5.1
(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2017-03-30 16:25.)


willisow      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 20:09) Posted:



 

I once show off my investment in ICBC, the world largest bank, to my most respected Grandmastress Famouspinky. I told her i bought it in 2016 Q1 at HKD4.18 and i happily haolian to her when ICBC price hit about HKD5.16 somewhere between Sept-Oct 2016. Grandmastress Famouspinky told me to sell otherwise my profit would be gone but i didn' t listened to her becos my fair value was higher. Unfortunately she got it right and ICBC price corrected and fell to about HKD4.49, a 13% correction which lasted about 6 months and currently climb back to the level before it corrected. 

Today ICBC reported its 2016 full year result and I raise my estimated fair value from HKD5.89 to HKD6.04 and again I show off to her and also to prove to her that value investing work in all companies that included the PRC companies. PRC ppl mostly engaged in speculation with the belief that value investing can' t work in PRC companies. Such sayings are navie and ignorant, so long the stock players are human being, value investing always work becos it tap on discrepancies between a stock price and its long term fair value which resulted due to fear and greed. 

I have been closing all my other threads but i will leave this one specially open for my Grandmastress Famouspinky until ICBC fair value materialise. She is also welcome to bet with me with the same conditions as DBS offered to her. She is also welcome to state her comments and remarks, wahahaha.... :p

 



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willisow
Master
31-Mar-2017 12:01     
 
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Tough Life........

 

 
Brokers' Latest Ratings & TPs on ICBC (Table)
2017/03/31 11:37
 
 
 
 
 
 
PRINT 
   
 
Close
 
 
 
SIZE 
 
SHOW:  STOCK INFO    SHORT SELL 
 
 


After close yesterday (30 March), ICBC (01398.HK)    -0.010 (-0.195%)        Short selling  $169.01M   Ratio  15.995%      announced that for the year ended 31 December 2016, net profit amounted to RMB278.249 billion, representing a yearly increase of 0.4%, slightly higher than median of brokers' forecast (RMB277.251 billion). EPS amounted to 77 fen final dividend amounted to 23.43 fen (2015: 23.33 fen).

12 brokers updated their ratings and target prices:

Brokers/ Ratings/ Target prices(HK$)
Jefferies/ Buy/ 7.6
Morgan Stanley/ Overweight/ 7.2
Nomura/ Buy/ 6.92
Goldman Sachs/ Buy/ 6.6
UBS/ Buy/ 6.3
Credit Suisse/ Outperform/ 6.3
Macquarie/ Outperform/ 6.3
JPMorgan/ Overweight/ 6.15
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Buy/ 6.02-> 5.96 
Deutsche Bank/ Buy/ 5.73
Citigroup/ Buy/ 5.42
HSBC Global Research/ Hold/ 5.1
(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2017-03-30 16:25.)


willisow      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 20:09) Posted:



 

I once show off my investment in ICBC, the world largest bank, to my most respected Grandmastress Famouspinky. I told her i bought it in 2016 Q1 at HKD4.18 and i happily haolian to her when ICBC price hit about HKD5.16 somewhere between Sept-Oct 2016. Grandmastress Famouspinky told me to sell otherwise my profit would be gone but i didn' t listened to her becos my fair value was higher. Unfortunately she got it right and ICBC price corrected and fell to about HKD4.49, a 13% correction which lasted about 6 months and currently climb back to the level before it corrected. 

Today ICBC reported its 2016 full year result and I raise my estimated fair value from HKD5.89 to HKD6.04 and again I show off to her and also to prove to her that value investing work in all companies that included the PRC companies. PRC ppl mostly engaged in speculation with the belief that value investing can' t work in PRC companies. Such sayings are navie and ignorant, so long the stock players are human being, value investing always work becos it tap on discrepancies between a stock price and its long term fair value which resulted due to fear and greed. 

I have been closing all my other threads but i will leave this one specially open for my Grandmastress Famouspinky until ICBC fair value materialise. She is also welcome to bet with me with the same conditions as DBS offered to her. She is also welcome to state her comments and remarks, wahahaha.... :p

 


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jeremyow
Master
30-Mar-2017 22:57     
 
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Great job Willis! I am also vested in ICBC but I will be discreet here and not disclose my average holding price. Yes, agree with you on your estimated fair value price for ICBC. smiley 

willisow      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 22:49) Posted:

👍 👌 ✌

famouspinky      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 21:40) Posted:

Every companies, even the cup of coffee that u drink has a fair value, i dont deny this. Its sad to close other threads same as closing positions. Life still has to move on. Impt is being happy. Kudos to ur ethical post
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willisow
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30-Mar-2017 22:49     
 
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famouspinky      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 21:40) Posted:

Every companies, even the cup of coffee that u drink has a fair value, i dont deny this. Its sad to close other threads same as closing positions. Life still has to move on. Impt is being happy. Kudos to ur ethical post.

willisow      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 20:09) Posted:



 

I once show off my investment in ICBC, the world largest bank, to my most respected Grandmastress Famouspinky. I told her i bought it in 2016 Q1 at HKD4.18 and i happily haolian to her when ICBC price hit about HKD5.16 somewhere between Sept-Oct 2016. Grandmastress Famouspinky told me to sell otherwise my profit would be gone but i didn' t listened to her becos my fair value was higher. Unfortunately she got it right and ICBC price corrected and fell to about HKD4.49, a 13% correction which lasted about 6 months and currently climb back to the level before it corrected. 

Today ICBC reported its 2016 full year result and I raise my estimated fair value from HKD5.89 to HKD6.04 and again I show off to her and also to prove to her that value investing work in all companies that included the PRC companies. PRC ppl mostly engaged in speculation with the belief that value investing can' t work in PRC companies. Such sayings are navie and ignorant, so long the stock players are human being, value investing always work becos it tap on discrepancies between a stock price and its long term fair value which resulted due to fear and greed. 

I have been closing all my other threads but i will leave this one specially open for my Grandmastress Famouspinky until ICBC fair value materialise. She is also welcome to bet with me with the same conditions as DBS offered to her. She is also welcome to state her comments and remarks, wahahaha.... :p

 



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famouspinky
Supreme
30-Mar-2017 21:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Every companies, even the cup of coffee that u drink has a fair value, i dont deny this. Its sad to close other threads same as closing positions. Life still has to move on. Impt is being happy. Kudos to ur ethical post.

willisow      ( Date: 30-Mar-2017 20:09) Posted:



 

I once show off my investment in ICBC, the world largest bank, to my most respected Grandmastress Famouspinky. I told her i bought it in 2016 Q1 at HKD4.18 and i happily haolian to her when ICBC price hit about HKD5.16 somewhere between Sept-Oct 2016. Grandmastress Famouspinky told me to sell otherwise my profit would be gone but i didn' t listened to her becos my fair value was higher. Unfortunately she got it right and ICBC price corrected and fell to about HKD4.49, a 13% correction which lasted about 6 months and currently climb back to the level before it corrected. 

Today ICBC reported its 2016 full year result and I raise my estimated fair value from HKD5.89 to HKD6.04 and again I show off to her and also to prove to her that value investing work in all companies that included the PRC companies. PRC ppl mostly engaged in speculation with the belief that value investing can' t work in PRC companies. Such sayings are navie and ignorant, so long the stock players are human being, value investing always work becos it tap on discrepancies between a stock price and its long term fair value which resulted due to fear and greed. 

I have been closing all my other threads but i will leave this one specially open for my Grandmastress Famouspinky until ICBC fair value materialise. She is also welcome to bet with me with the same conditions as DBS offered to her. She is also welcome to state her comments and remarks, wahahaha.... :p

 


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willisow
Master
30-Mar-2017 20:09     
 
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I once show off my investment in ICBC, the world largest bank, to my most respected Grandmastress Famouspinky. I told her i bought it in 2016 Q1 at HKD4.18 and i happily haolian to her when ICBC price hit about HKD5.16 somewhere between Sept-Oct 2016. Grandmastress Famouspinky told me to sell otherwise my profit would be gone but i didn' t listened to her becos my fair value was higher. Unfortunately she got it right and ICBC price corrected and fell to about HKD4.49, a 13% correction which lasted about 6 months and currently climb back to the level before it corrected. 

Today ICBC reported its 2016 full year result and I raise my estimated fair value from HKD5.89 to HKD6.04 and again I show off to her and also to prove to her that value investing work in all companies that included the PRC companies. PRC ppl mostly engaged in speculation with the belief that value investing can' t work in PRC companies. Such sayings are navie and ignorant, so long the stock players are human being, value investing always work becos it tap on discrepancies between a stock price and its long term fair value which resulted due to fear and greed. 

I have been closing all my other threads but i will leave this one specially open for my Grandmastress Famouspinky until ICBC fair value materialise. She is also welcome to bet with me with the same conditions as DBS offered to her. She is also welcome to state her comments and remarks, wahahaha.... :p

 

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willisow
Master
24-Nov-2016 20:45     
 
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  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015  
OPERATING PROFIT $106,104 $156,883 $233,961 $193,281 $245,320 $318,045 $371,207 $406,908 $450,090 $468,671 IN MILLION
OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 58.42% 60.94% 75.42% 62.47% 64.43% 67.58% 70.08% 70.29% 70.90% 70.08%  
RETURN ON ASSETS 1.41% 1.81% 2.40% 1.64% 1.82% 2.05% 2.12% 2.15% 2.18% 2.11%  
LOAN PROVISION RATIO 2.68% 2.84% 2.97% 2.54% 2.46% 2.50% 2.50% 2.43% 2.34% 2.35%  
SHARE BASE 334,019 334,019 334,019 334,019 349,019 349,084 349,620 351,390 353,495 356,407 IN MILLION
DIVIDEND PAID $22,130 $5,344 $44,425 $55,113 $56,783 $64,220 $70,912 $83,565 $91,960 $91,026 IN MILLION
DIVIDEND PER SHARE $0.07 $0.02 $0.13 $0.16 $0.16 $0.18 $0.20 $0.24 $0.26 $0.26  
PE RATIO 15.21 11.82 5.82 11.13 8.24 5.06 5.18 4.53 4.45 3.56  


 

Im pleased to present the world largest bank from PRC, ICBC. My own assessment of its fair value at HKD5.89 and ideal entry price at HKD4.04. A gentle reminder to all investors, the ideal entry price is derived based on a historical safety margin off its fair value. Investors are advised to buy in batches to further safeguard your own capital against volatility. The estimated fair value is derived on a long term horizon and i have no timeline to realise its value. Investors with short term investment horizon are advised not to follow.

PLEASE DO NOT COMMENT OR REPLY IN THIS THREAD, THIS IS STRICTLY MEANT FOR VIEWING ONLY. Readers are welcome to direct your comments or queries to my discussion thread " Feel free to share anything about investment" , thank you :)
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