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CMB Estimated Fair Value - Willis Ow Post Reply Rate topic
willisow Master	27-Mar-2017 20:22        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Following the announcement of China Merchant Bank (CMB) Q4 result, SJ members are advised not to follow the existing data of this thread becos it will not be updated with the latest interim statistic. This thread will be closed with immediate effect and once again investors are advised not to follow the past stipulated entry price and fair value indicated by myself. Thank you.        CLOSED....
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willisow Master	25-Nov-2016 19:28        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015   OPERATING PROFIT $10,419 $18,540 $26,601 $19,992 $33,431 $46,000 $51,547 $61,076 $70,239 $87,557 IN MILLION OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 41.90% 45.17% 47.81% 38.56% 46.63% 47.62% 45.31% 45.91% 42.22% 43.31%   RETURN ON ASSETS 1.12% 1.41% 1.69% 0.97% 1.39% 1.65% 1.51% 1.52% 1.48% 1.60%   LOAN PROVISION RATIO 2.88% 2.79% 2.47% 2.02% 2.05% 2.24% 2.16% 2.22% 2.59% 3.00%   SHARE BASE 14,703 14,705 14,707 19,119 21,577 21,577 21,577 25,220 25,220 25,220 IN MILLION DIVIDEND PAID $3,160 $1,712 $4,206 $1,474 $4,528 $6,249 $9,062 $13,593 $15,656 $16,925 IN MILLION DIVIDEND PER SHARE $0.21 $0.12 $0.29 $0.08 $0.21 $0.29 $0.42 $0.54 $0.62 $0.67   PE RATIO 23.26 25.26 7.94 19.46 12.66 7.36 7.16 6.82 6.99 5.27     The above consolidations are from a PRC bank known as China Merchant Bank (CMB). For past 10 years, its operating profit rose by 7 times, equivalent to 26% growth per annum, 4 times PRC GDP. However, its loan provision is pretty high, thus investors need to assess your own risk profile if you wish to take a position in it. My assessment of CMB estimated fair value is HKD26.52 and ideal entry price at HKD13.63 or below. A gentle reminder to all investors, the ideal entry price is derived based on a historical safety margin off its fair value and it is not a price prediction. Investors are advised to buy in batches to further safeguard your capital against volatility. The estimated fair value is derived based on a long term horizon and i have no timeline to realise its value. Investors with short term investment horizon are advised not to follow. PLEASE DO NOT REPLY OR COMMENT IN THIS THREAD, THIS IS STRICTLY MEANT FOR VIEWING ONLY. Readers are welcome to direct your comments or queries to my discussion thread " Feel free to share anything about investment" , thank you :)
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