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China Avation Oil to hit above $1.60?
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Secret_Squirrel
Master |
19-Sep-2023 15:51
Yells: "buy share cannot keep keep long will LPPL ,back to square on" |
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Are they buying cheap Russia oil?
If yes, then will have better profit margin.
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LowLow12
Elite |
19-Sep-2023 11:46
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Must call Chen Jiu Lin to find out if can buy or not | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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ozone2002
Supreme |
19-Sep-2023 11:40
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Reason for the run up yesterday KGI Research  China Aviation Oil (CAO SP)  - Long &ndash Entry 0.900, Target 0.960, Stop 0.870 Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.   |
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Maxgrow68
Elite |
18-Sep-2023 10:01
Yells: "Right and Kind. Choose Kind then you are always Right !" |
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Vol need to pick up. Now v low 381k only
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ozone2002
Supreme |
18-Sep-2023 09:50
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0.905      ![]() CAO biz only value at 6c irresistible value
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FrancisLim
Elite |
18-Sep-2023 09:09
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China Aviation Oil like all the China equities, abandoned.  Oil has gone up, aviation has rebounded.   |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
09-Sep-2023 11:10
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trading at cash at hand value of 84c, means aviation biz is free!
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EPS  (SGD)  a | 0.05242 | Trailing EPS  (SGD)  b | 0.05171 | NAV  (SGD)  c | 1.4263 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE  a | 16.978 | Trailing PE  d | 17.211 | Price / NAV  c | 0.6240 |
Dividend Yield  (%)  e | 1.798 | Cash In Hand  (SGD)  f | 0.8422 | Issued & Paid-up Shares  g | 860,184,000 |
Piotroski F Score | 6 | Market Cap (M) | 765.564 | Free Float (%) | 27.2 |
Return on Equity (ROE) (%)  h | 3.625 | Revenue Growth (%) TTM  i | -29.383 | ||
Net Earnings Growth (%)  j | -9.691 | Net Debt/Equity  k | Net Cash | Net Debt (SGD ' 000) | 205,395 |
Under CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS) | Yes | ||||
Sector & Industry | Other Service Activities - Wholesale Distributors | ||||
Category Classification | China / Oil & Gas | ||||
Index Components | FSTCT / FTSE ST All-Share Energy Index / FTSE ST All-Share Index / FTSE ST China Index / FTSE ST Small Cap Index   |
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Veteran
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China' s travel rebound risks super-charging jet fuel prices
After years of pent-up demand for leisure and business travel due to the ravages of Covid-19, millions of Chinese are taking to the skies again as the nation leads an aviation boom across Asia.
 
China&rsquo s return is thought to be the final missing piece in the global air travel recovery. Domestic travel has led the rebound in Asia&rsquo s top aviation market, and now international travel is set to take off after the lifting of a ban on group tours to popular destinations.
 
Yet the resurgence comes with a drawback: It&rsquo s likely to lift jet fuel consumption amid tight supplies, potentially super-charging prices.
 
In recent months, the availability of aviation fuel has slipped, with stockpiles at hubs such as Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp below seasonal averages. That&rsquo s due to a series of unplanned refinery outages, as well as increased diesel production at the expense of jet fuel.
 
While aviation fuel prices are nowhere near the highs of last year, they&rsquo ve jumped about 30% this month compared with the start of July, trading above US$116 a barrel in Singapore, according to Bloomberg Fair Value data.
 
Aviation' s Recovery Gains Pace on China' s Easing | Global jet fuel demand to climb to 2019 levels in 2024
 
Higher jet fuel prices may weigh on airlines currently enjoying bumper profits, while travelers could see higher fares if companies pass along those steeper costs.
 
Global oil prices have risen more than 15% in the past two months, due to OPEC+ output curbs as well as higher run rates by refiners looking to cash in on good fuel-making profits. Banks such as UBS AG have adjusted their oil price forecasts upward, citing a market deficit.
 
A big question mark for the outlook on oil and the global economy has been China&rsquo s uneven recovery. While overall growth in the nation has been weaker than expected, various data on flight bookings are an encouraging sign.
 
On the domestic side, China weekly flights surged 13% above pre-Covid levels in the week ending Aug. 20, according to travel platform Flight Master.
 
International travel is also picking up. Bookings for overseas group tours during the National Day Holiday in October more than tripled from a month ago as of Aug. 17 &mdash a week after China eased restrictions &mdash according to a statement by online travel agency  Trip.com  Group. Searches for overseas flights as of early August already surpassed the same time period in 2019, according to a separate statement. Flights between the US and China are set to double from current levels by the end of October.
 
A full recovery for Chinese international tourism won&rsquo t come overnight. After four years of harsh Covid restrictions, those looking to travel are facing high costs amid a weakening yuan, the sluggish economy and difficulty in getting travel documents such as visas.
 
Fuel Demand
Also, the increase in demand comes as fuel supplies are stretched, leaving markets more vulnerable to diesel and jet fuel price shocks.
 
China&rsquo s jet fuel demand is poised to accelerate from August, and could return to pre-Covid levels by the fourth quarter, Energy Aspects said in a note. On a global level, while demand is set to rise by an average of 200,000 barrels a day in the latter half of the year from the first six months, a return to pre-pandemic levels will only take place as soon as mid-2024, said Mukesh Sahdev, head of oil trading/downstream solution at Rystad Energy.
 
Oil markets are pricing in a scarcity for so-called middle-distillate fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. Inventories at key oil hubs have been thinned by a global refinery system that has been pressured by outages and capacity shutdowns in recent years.
 
More refinery maintenance work lies ahead in North America and Europe during September and October, meaning these fuel supplies could shrink further, said Rystad&rsquo s Sahdev.
 
&ldquo Right now the supply risk for oil products is strong,&rdquo he said. Jet fuel prices could peak in September, putting pressure on recovering airlines, he added.
 
Rising fuel bills may prompt airlines to pass on some of their costs to customers by lifting or introducing fuel surcharges, said Tim Bacchus, senior aviation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. This could also crimp demand for travel, especially in Asia, where consumers are already paying for more expensive tickets, he said.
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Secret_Squirrel ( Date: 24-Aug-2023 11:12) Posted:
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Master
Yells: "buy share cannot keep keep long will LPPL ,back to square on"
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FrancisLim ( Date: 24-Aug-2023 10:03) Posted:
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Senior

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Master
Yells: "buy share cannot keep keep long will LPPL ,back to square on"
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PhillipTan ( Date: 20-Aug-2023 12:08) Posted:
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Elite
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So it seems that with covid zero, CAO doing nothing produced a better set of results(excluding the passive interest income).
Management is contibuting negatively.
With the recent slew of not so good economic news, really looking for a miracle for the grounded planes to take off?
 
Supreme
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' Bumpy take-off' for China Aviation Oil has OCBC Investment Research lowering TP to $1.10
 
A bumpy take-off for China Aviation Oil (CAO) has OCBC Investment Research maintaining its &ldquo buy&rdquo call, but with a lower target price of $1.10 from $1.12 previously.
 
OCBC&rsquo s Ada Lim says that CAO had a disappointing 1HFY2023 ended June results, on the back of slower-than-expected outbound travel recovery from China.
 
CAO&rsquo s 1HFY2023 total revenue fell 32.4% y-o-y to US$6.3 billion, with the company hamstrung by lower oil prices and a 16.1% y-o-y decline in total supply and trading volume, says Lim.
 
In addition, share of results from associates also fell 14.7% y-o-y to US$8.3 million ($11.23 million), largely due to a 15.9% decline in contributions from key subsidiary, Shanghai-Pudong International Airport Aviation Fuel Supply Company (SPIA), which suffered an inventory impairment caused by the decline in oil prices.
 
Lim notes that CAO&rsquo s lower revenue and gains from trading activities were partially offset by other operating income (as compared to a loss in 1HFY2022), on the back of higher interest income which increased by $8.8 million y-o-y, as well as favourable exchange rate movements.
 
&ldquo Altogether, CAO reported a relatively stable net profit of US$19.4 million, down 1.1% from US$19.6 million in 1HFY2022. The company remained in a strong net cash position as at 30 June 2023, with US$534.4 million worth of cash and cash equivalents and no net interest-bearing debt,&rdquo says Lim.
 
CAO is heavily dependent on international flights out of China, and suffered from lagging outbound travel recovery in 1HFY2023.
 
However, Lim &ldquo awaits a more meaningful outbound travel recovery&rdquo , noting that search popularity for outbound flight tickets in the summer has exceeded the same period in 2019, suggesting a healthy appetite for outbound travel.
 
In addition, given CAO&rsquo s entrenched presence in China and status as a market leader in the region, Lim says that it is well positioned to capture the gradual recovery in jet fuel demand with China&rsquo s reopening,
 
The increasing affluence of the Asia Pacific region and burgeoning middle class in China will also support the long-term growth of the regional aviation fuel market, making CAO an attractive multi-year investment story, adds Lim.
 
She notes that data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China showed that there were only 3,368 weekly international passenger flights as at the end of June 2023, accounting for about 44% of pre-pandemic levels.
 
&ldquo Going forward, we expect policy support to promote further outbound travel recovery, given that the need to increase international flight capacity was explicitly mentioned at July&rsquo s Politburo meeting,&rdquo says Lim.
 
Lim turns more conservative on her forecasts by delaying some of her recovery assumptions, while fine-tuning some of her cost of equity assumptions.
 
&ldquo As a result, our fair value estimate dips from $1.12 to $1.10. CAO is currently trading at a 12-month forward PE ratio of 8.39x, which is slightly below its five-year historical average of 8.44x,&rdquo she adds.
Elite
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Need patience, currently I believe tis still have growth potential
Will pump in more if still have extra $$$
Elite
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Supreme
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China Aviation Oil on the road to recovery despite underwhelming results in first half: OCBC Securities
CAO will benefit from a strong recovery in China' s aviation sector, says OCBC Securities.
SINGAPORE &ndash Despite its underwhelming performance in the first half of 2023, China Aviation Oil (CAO) is poised to benefit from the gradual recovery in jet fuel demand with China&rsquo s reopening.
 
Beyond this immediate catalyst, the increasing affluence of the Asia-Pacific region and burgeoning middle class in China will support the long-term growth of the regional aviation fuel market, making CAO an attractive multi-year investment story.
 
OCBC Securities made this call in its Aug 10 report, where it posted a $1.10 price target on the stock of the largest physical jet fuel trader in the Asia-Pacific region.
 
The latest price target is slightly below its earlier target of $1.12. Shares of CAO last traded at 92 cents on Thursday.
 
OCBC Securities analyst Ada Lim noted that CAO&rsquo s financial performance has been battered in recent years by the Covid-19 pandemic and an extended period of lockdowns due to China&rsquo s zero-Covid policy.
 
CAO&rsquo s revenue for the first half of the year ended on June 30 fell 32.4 per cent year on year to US$6.3 billion (S$8.5 billion) due to lower oil prices, a decline in total oil supply and falling contributions from associate companies and key subsidiary Shanghai-Pudong International Airport Aviation Fuel Supply Company.
 
But its net profit remained stable at US$19.4 million, just 1.1 per cent down from the previous year&rsquo s first-half profit of US$19.6 million. Also, the company was sitting on a strong cash position of US$534.4 million at end-June, with no interest-bearing debt on its books.
 
OCBC Securities noted that CAO remained a key supplier of imported jet fuel in the civil aviation industry in China, and a strong proxy for the growing Chinese aviation industry.
 
Being heavily dependent on international flights out of China, CAO suffered from lagging outbound travel recovery between January and June. Data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China showed that there were only 3,368 weekly international passenger flights as at the end of June, or some 44 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
 
But according to online travel and booking platform Trip.com, searches for outbound flight tickets in the summer have exceeded the same period in 2019, which suggests a healthy appetite for outbound travel.
 
&ldquo Going forward, we expect policy support to promote further outbound travel recovery, given that the need to increase international flight capacity was explicitly mentioned at July&rsquo s Politburo meeting,&rdquo the report said.
 
Just this week, China announced the resumption of outbound tours to destinations including Australia, Britain, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United States.
 
The investment house added that despite its difficult recent past, CAO remained well-positioned to capture the gradual recovery in jet fuel demand with China&rsquo s reopening, given its entrenched presence in China and status as a market leader in the region.
 
OCBC Securities expects CAO&rsquo s full-year earnings per share to grow 23.4 per cent to 4.8 cents per share in 2023, and another 27.6 per cent to 6.1 cents per share in 2024.
 
It expects the company to pay a dividend per share of 1.9 cents in 2023 and 2.7 cents in 2024.
Elite
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China&rsquo s culture and tourism ministry  said Thursday that group tours will resume to over dozens of locations in Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa and North America.