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The Trading Floor
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 17:57
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Then you wait for Bro Spore to read and tell you. When you dont follow the discussions here and then suddenly drops in and ask what is this or what is that or why like this or why like that, it is like when I am watching KIN which is into its 538th Episode tomorrow and my lovely one suddenly drops in next to me and ask why this person and person has become enemies when they were good friends or why this character and this character are now like buddies when they used to be enemies, I will just sigh and I hardly know where to begin to start explaining. Just like I have been putting in alot of effort to post charts and talk about doing BUY & HOLD for the GRs and I explained why GRs are good for BUY & HOLD not once but many times and in spite of this, if someone just drop in and ask me to explain all over again why can buy, I will feel like..... 
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kiseki_2818
Master |
13-Dec-2020 17:31
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uncle wave, too many posts..me no time to read all. So random select.
my guess gr js good reits or golden reits or good rocks or..good retailers.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 17:14
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
DBS Research 10 Nov 2020 Our Views Downgrade to HOLD, time to take a breather after the strong surge of c.400% in share price YTD. We believe that Riverstone Holdings& lsquo (RSTON) steep share price increase is nearing its end, especially with more positive news of COVID-19 vaccines coming onstream. Expect rising ASP trend to moderate. The company& rsquo s average selling price (ASP) continues to sky-rocket on strong demand and tight supply due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 4Q20 results are expected to be strong. Beyond FY20F, we expect the ASP trend to stabilise in FY21F and decline in FY22F, though demand is still expected to be firm. We have imputed an average of 70% y-o-y increase in ASPs in FY20F, flat in FY21F and decline of 20% to 30% in FY22F. The surge in ASP has led to the abnormally high margins and profits which are not likely to be sustainable in the longer term. Potential catalysts: Further capacity expansion, higher ASP and inorganic growth. Risks Global economic slowdown. While margins for cleanroom (CR) gloves are higher, demand for these gloves could be threatened by a global economic slowdown. Valuation Downgrade to HOLD, TP S$2.03. Earnings estimates for FY20F/FY21F are raised by 70%/62% on higher ASP and margins. Target price (TP) is cut to S$2.03, as we pegged it to average 5-year price-to-earnings (PE), in line with our valuation methodology for RSTON& rsquo s peers. ................................................ I ever thiah lung cong kana si wa eh Dai Lole Amator cong one.... that when a Research House downgrades a stock to HOLD, it means SELL.   
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 17:00
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
You another one need to.....  Go and read the last 3 days' postings.
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spore1
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 13:54
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x 0 Alert Admin |
is great to know! Btw, what do you mean by GRs ? Can enlighten us?
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 13:31
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Bro Spore, The GRs will stop falling only when the selling by funds is done. This selling has been going on since Aug/Sep. That' s 4 to 5 months already. So should be ending soon. It will end when it ends. So just wait for it to end. And for the U-Turn to come. Maybe end-Dec or early-Jan ? |
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spore1
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 11:58
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x 0 Alert Admin |
1.84 I am waiting to collect some. What about you
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spore1
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 11:56
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x 0 Alert Admin |
2.71 I am happy to collect some . What about you?
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 01:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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JP Morgan pegs these glove makers' fair value at up to half their market price, says supernormal cycle is over The Edge Sat, Dec 12, 2020 12:16am - 1 day ago KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 11): JP Morgan has reinstated coverage of Top Glove Corp Bhd, but with an underweight recommendation and a fair value of RM3.50 &mdash that' s about half its current market price of RM6.90 &mdash as it sees the passing of a supernormal growth cycle for glove makers, in anticipation of a huge oversupply in the market, as glove demand decelerates in tandem with the pace of testing for Covid-19. Besides the world' s largest rubber glove maker, it also initiated coverage of its closest peers Hartalega Holdings Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, also with UW ratings. It gave a fair value of RM8.50 for Hartalega, down 38% from its last traded price of RM13.72, and a fair value of RM3.80 to Kossan, which is 30% less than its closing price of RM5.39 today. Its analysts Jeffrey Ng and YY Cheah, in a note to clients today, said they expect glove prices to weaken in the second half of next year. " Global testing trends have also plateaued, which ought to ease current supply tightness. JP Morgan&rsquo s proprietary fund flow analysis indicates the glove sector is a crowded trade, implying significant downside momentum. Near-term concerns on rising costs, plus long-term overcapacity risk, spell downside risks. Once Malaysia lifts the short selling ban, downward pressure could be amplified," they wrote. In particular, they noted that 13 of 17 highly populated nations&rsquo testing trends have started to trend downwards from their peaks since the end of September. This, they wrote, may be an early indication that glove prices too have peaked, and similarly for producers&rsquo profits and share prices. They also view the expectation that the use of gloves per capita would double post Covid-19 as " overly optimistic" , given global population growth is substantially slower than projected glove capacity growth. Glove production capacity, they noted, is expected to grow 87% in the next three- to five years from this year&rsquo s, with 130 billion pieces per annum capacity to come from the big four glove makers of Top Glove, Hartalega, Kossan and Supermax Corp Bhd, and 20 billion pieces more from non-conventional players. &ldquo The most worrying factor is oversupply, as we see not only significant capex plans from the big four producers but also from new players. While it is hard to measure the potential oversupply, we can take a leaf from the crude palm oil industry which saw a decade of oversupply post a supernormal cycle in the early 2000s,&rdquo they noted. Additionally, glove makers' profitability is expected to be negatively affected by higher raw material prices and rising labour costs. " Pressure on foreign workers' treatment has and will continue to lift opex. Board members of certain glove producers have also asked for a raise in board fees. All these will add to higher opex and erode margins," they wrote. Amid all this, they think the upside potential for glove stocks may be capped, with retail and foreign participation having reached all-time highs. Malaysia&rsquo s government linked funds are the only hope to lift the sector, they wrote, yet they have also been trimming their exposure recently. " The market cap of the top-four producers is RM170 billion, equal to 66% of local non-government-linked funds&rsquo AUM (asset under management). Our proprietary analysis shows most funds have exposure in gloves and their cash holdings are low. To date, local mutual funds have invested 11% of AUM in gloves. Retail and foreign participation are at all-time highs. It is thus difficult to find incremental dollars to drive this sector higher," the note read. Meanwhile, they noted that Top Glove and Hartalega' s capital management decisions have not been optimal for creating value for shareholders due to the focus on accelerating capex via cash to support capacity growth. &ldquo Despite the strong cash generation in the next 12 months, Top Glove has guided that it will maintain a 50% dividend payout, as it aims to increase its capex to RM2 billion per annum for the next five years, a four times increase relative to its historical average. Utilising equity at a cost of 7.7% versus cost of debt of less than 5% to fund capex, in our view, is not optimal to shareholders&rsquo value creation,&rdquo it explained. Similarly, Hartalega' s management has guided that it would increase its capex by 2.3 times in the next three years, compared with the financial year ended March 31, 2017 (FY17) to FY19. The analysts believe Hartalega could unlock more value if it uses its debt to fund capex, as its cost of equity of 7.8% is higher than its cost of debt of 2.5%. " Management has also guided that it will only maintain its 60% dividend payout for the next three years, despite the strong cash generation and supernormal cycle," they added. Among risks to JP Morgan' s sector call is a second global wave of Covid-19 cases, and any unplanned glove production disruption that could create supply tightness &mdash both of which could lift glove prices to new heights. A relaxation of foreign worker policy or cut in worker levy would also improve profits, so would any greater-than-forecast drop in nitrile and natural rubber prices. Further challenges to its sector call would be a significant step-up in dividend payout plus capital repayment that would lighten the glove makers' balance sheet, and a substantial depreciation of the ringgit that would improve reported profit, as gloves are sold on US dollar terms. http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/765419 |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 01:29
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Those vested in COVID stocks, you may want to take note of this report and its implications and of any possible knee jerk reaction and short term impact on the prices of COVID stocks. ...................... KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 12): The world' s largest rubber glove maker Top Glove Corp Bhd' s latest record-breaking net profit surged past RM2 billion, backed by strong demand for gloves in both developed and emerging markets, thanks to the pandemic. But behind this super profit, the group has been dogged by issues ranging from import bans in the US market over allegations of forced labour, a surge of Covid-19 infections among its workers that has halted half its production capacity, and possible legal action by Malaysian authorities for housing its workers in cramped and poorly ventilated accommodations that do not meet minimum standards set by the law. Add these to the flood of news about imminent availability of an effective Covid-19 vaccine, it' s not surprising that Top Glove' s share price has been sliding, despite the company' s persistent share buyback efforts to arrest the decline, with over RM1 billion spent so far. This week, the share-purchase baton was picked up by its founder and chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai, who bought RM29.77 million worth of Top Glove shares. Yesterday, JP Morgan initiated coverage on its stock, but with a fair value of RM3.50 - about half its last traded price of RM6.90 - as it sees the passing of a supernormal growth cycle for glove makers, in anticipation of a huge oversupply in the market, as glove demand decelerates in tandem with the pace of testing for Covid-19. Rising costs are also expected to eat into profitability. So what does Top Glove have to say about sustaining its super profits? Below are its chairman' s written answers to some questions posed by The Edge after the release of its first quarter results. Question by The Edge: Your profit margin stood at 49.9% in the first quarter ended Nov 30, 2020 (1QFY21). Is the current profit margin sustainable? Answer by Lim: The coming quarters performance will be better with below reasons: 1. Additional new capacity 2. Higher nitrile gloves mix by switching some latex capacity, and sufficient Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) latex 3. Higher ASP which is in line with market prevailing price 4. Demand continue to increase underpinned by in both healthcare and hygiene awareness Q: It is noticed that Top Glove has conducted share buybacks during the one-month blackout period before the release of the quarterly results. Are companies allowed to do that under listing rules? A: There is no blackout period for companies to buy back shares. The blackout is for directors and principal officers of the company. Q: Will the company continue to buy back its own shares? If so, what is the budgeted amount for this exercise? A: The company will evaluate the need for share buy back on an ongoing basis, taking into account the share price, the potential earnings, the available cash in hand. Q: Top Glove has spent a total of RM2.5 billion to pay dividends and buy back its own shares now. How will its cash pile be like, moving forward? A: The group is now in a net cash position and will continue to be in a net cash position, with an increasing trend of cash flow from operating activities, which we expect to further increase its cash position. Q: Sitting on a net cash of RM3.46 billion now, will Top Glove invest more in investment securities? A: Investment securities is not investment in quoted shares in listed companies. It is an accounting terminology for cash in hand that we placed in money markets to gain better returns than FD (fixed deposit). Q: With its net cash position now, will Top Glove redeem the perpetual sukuk that was issued on Feb 27, 2020 to raise RM1.3 billion? A: The sukuk is a long-term funding and we evaluated it for long-term cash planning purposes, when we raised the fund. Q: Can you explain what are these contract liabilities worth RM1.09 billion listed under your balance sheet? A: These are the deposits collected for customers for future orders. Q: For Tan Sri, since you are a substantial shareholder of Tropicana, were you aware that Tropicana purchased over RM70 million Top Glove shares recently? A: Please refer to Tropicana& rsquo s Bursa announcement in this link. Tan Sri Dr Lim is the non-executive chairman of Tropicana and he was not involved in the deliberation and decision of such investment. Q: Following the strong 1QFY21 earnings of RM2.38 billion, what are your earnings' expectations for 2QFY21? A: Please refer to the response for Question 1 above. Q: Has there been any indication from the US Customs and Border Protection on when it will revoke the import ban on the company' s two subsidiaries? Will sales to the North American market continue to slip in 2QFY21? (1QFY21 dropped 2% on-year) A: We continue to actively engage with the US Customs and Border Protection towards the expeditious upliftment of the Withhold Release Order (WRO), for which it is making good progress. The sales drop to North America was also due to shortage of NBR supply and also the EMCO (enhanced movement control order) the coming quarter should be higher due to sufficient availability of NBR latex and with new capacity in nitrile. Q: Has the company made any provision for the penalty of breaching the Workers& rsquo Minimum Standards of Housing and Amenities Act 1990 (Act 446)? What is the amount you are expecting from this? A: Top Glove is working very closely with the authorities related to this issue to ensure the compliance of the Act. http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/765419 |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 01:23
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 01:19
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
13-Dec-2020 01:18
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
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3DecadesTrader
Veteran |
13-Dec-2020 00:13
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@Eatall, i can' t sleep yet because i m waiting for video conferencing with my business counterpart from Lima, Peru to be held @ 02:00hrs (SG time). Lollll
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Eatall
Veteran |
13-Dec-2020 00:05
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Roger..
Towkay, gui tiam liao.. Ko mai koon? Ka zar ki koon la.. Zao shui zao qi shenti hao... Wan an
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3DecadesTrader
Veteran |
12-Dec-2020 23:51
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In any stock market play, i view " Fundamentals" of a counter as the " Attribute or Inherent Part" of the counter, " TA" as the " Methodology" & " Momentum" as the " Mood" of the counter. lolllll | ||||
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spore1
Supreme |
12-Dec-2020 18:53
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$1.00 I shall tikam a bit for some kopi money!
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2020 16:06
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 1 Alert Admin |
 Ascendas, one of my Good REITs (GRs) which is a candidate for BUY & HOLD with cash account for capital gains with dividends being a bonus. This is her 10-Yr Weekly chart showing you how she moved from 2010 to 2020. Just look at all those dips she had over the last 10 years. Pick any of her dips you can see in the chart. Say you had parked $100k or $200k or whatever large amount of capital in one of those dips and rode her up until today, is your position under water or in the money ? Not to mention the dividends you would have collected from then till now. And this is even if you dont subscribe to any of her Rights Issue and simply sell the Rights to pocket more cash. That is why for me, she is a Good REIT and an obvious candidate for BUY & HOLD. Her current selldown which has been going on since August is a window of opportunity for us to buy her cheap when the selling ends. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
12-Dec-2020 15:28
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
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3DecadesTrader
Veteran |
12-Dec-2020 12:37
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next week may be SG Techs' sector turn to run up in the game of Musical Chair. need to monitor very closely. | ||||
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