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The Traders
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MrBear12
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13-Aug-2024 08:03
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Kickstart Your Investment Journey: Here Are 7 Singapore-Listed Companies for New Investors to Consider (yahoo.com) | |||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
07-Aug-2024 03:45
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It is quite amazing that many analysts have not factored in the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  Brace for a widening war. More unrest and uncertainty coming. I' d advise a very cautious approach to investing. Cash is king, especially when there is economic uncertainty. We all need cash to eat. Unless we live on a farm. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
06-Aug-2024 22:31
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Standard Chartered views Staying diversified across stocks and bonds amid negative correlation.  The correlation between stocks and bonds, especially in US markets, is again turning negative as government bond yields plunged amid rising US economic growth concerns. This implies that gains in government and investment grade corporate bonds are helping to partly offset declines in equities within a diversified portfolio. This supports our broadly diversified asset allocation stance in our foundation portfolio, with a slight tilt towards US equities. Bond yield curve likely to steepen further.  The US 2-year bond yield has fallen faster than the 10-year yield over the past week, turning the 10-year vs 2-year bond yield premium close to positive again. This benefitted our call for a steeper yield curve. This move suggests markets are pricing sharper Fed rate cuts in the coming months (reflected in the 2-year yield) amid a worsening outlook for long term growth (signalled by the 10-year yield). While the window for the Fed to achieve an economic soft-landing is narrow, rate cuts in the mid-1990s steered by the then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan helped avoid a recession. Nevertheless, we need to watch the 10-year bond yield closely - a sustained break of the 10-year yield below last December&rsquo s low of c. 3.8%, coinciding with further decline in stocks, would signal heightened risks of a US recession. This would drive sharper Fed rate cuts, steepening the yield curve further. Fed comments, high-frequency job market data likely to be the most important drivers of markets in the coming weeks.  The Fed funds rate, at 5.5%, is at a 23-year high, affording the Fed significant latitude to ease policy to prevent a sharp deterioration in the US economy and job markets. Money markets are already pricing 50bps of rate cuts by the next scheduled Fed meeting on 18 September, with rising probability of an earlier rate cut if high-frequency job market data deteriorates. US weekly jobless claims are rising. Several Fed policymakers are due to speak in the coming days. Indications of sharper Fed rate cuts should support risk sentiment. Our longer-term quantitative models remain modestly bullish equities earnings estimates remain robust.  Our technical model, however, highlights near-term risks, particularly in US equities. It has turned bearish on US equities for the first time in two years as momentum and volatility indicators worsened. The Nasdaq and S& P500 indices have immediate technical supports around their 200DMAs (1-3% below Monday&rsquo s close). Also, US Q2 earnings and revenue have beaten estimates. LSEG I/B/E/S consensus estimates S& P500 index earnings to rise 6.8% y/y and 13.9% y/y in Q3 and Q4, although those estimates have been lowered in recent weeks. Our technical model remains bearish on Japan and China stocks. FX carry trade unwind likely near final stretch.  The two haven currencies &ndash JPY and CHF &ndash benefitted the most after the weak US jobs data and the Bank of Japan&rsquo s surprisingly hawkish stance. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are not far from testing their December 2023 lows of close to 140 and 0.83, respectively. We closed both our short USD/CHF and USD/JPY trades this week. Aided by JPY&rsquo s strength, USD/CNH has fallen more than 2% since mid-July. Currency strength could create room for the PBoC to ease policy further in the coming months, especially if the Fed starts cutting rates. Corrective USD rebound likely.  While market bottoms are hard to time, especially during rapid moves, the broad USD index (DXY) remains well within its 100-107 range since late 2022. It will likely take a deep US recession, warranting deeper Fed rate cuts, for the USD index to fall below 100. As such, there is rising chance of a near-term corrective rebound in the USD. Currency volatility has risen out of recent ranges &ndash another indicator to watch closely in the coming days |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 16:30
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 13:13
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Moneysmart seems to give the best promo for Webull Best Webull Online Investment Brokerages in Singapore 2024 (moneysmart.sg)
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 12:58
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A comparison between brokers.  Webull Singapore Review (2024):  The Investing Platform To Recharge Your Wealth Journey? (singsaver.com.sg)
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 12:41
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I am looking for a good broker.  Webull seems to offer some good deals. Webull Singapore (singsaver.com.sg) |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 18:16
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End of day portfolio value SGD 816,709 Start of day portfolio value SGD 823.437 Percentage change -0.82 Compare with STI 3,324 to 3,297 points (-0.81%) Tracks STI with about 1% variance
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 07:32
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Testing out a model portfolio with the following stocks Stock (Qty.) DBS (5,293) OCBC (6,346) ST Eng (15,000) City Dev (4,800) Seatrium (11,451) Keppel Ltd (12,000) Singtel (28,000) JMH (160) SGX (1,000) CICT (12,000) Suntec Reits (17,000) K-Reit (5,324) Paragon Reit (3,564) Aims Amp Reit (21,000) CDL H Trust (763) First Reits (64,000) SBS Transit (8,400) Keppel Infrastructure Trust (54,191) Hong Leong Finance (2,000) Global Investment Ltd (383,871) Straco Corp (56,200) MoneyMax Financial (2,500) STI ETF (15,660) City Dev NCPS 3.9% (400) Current Market Value = SGD 823,437 |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 06:48
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Economists keep 2.4% forecast for Singapore&rsquo s growth, but expect less from manufacturing, survey finds (businesstimes.com.sg) | |||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
12-Jun-2024 20:31
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US May Consumer Prices Rise 3.3% Y/Y Est. 3.4%
Ranjeetha Pakiam |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
12-Jun-2024 13:19
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer  Price Index  (CPI) inflation data from the United States (US) for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar braces for intense volatility, as any surprises from the US inflation report could significantly impact the market&rsquo s pricing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations in September. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
11-Jun-2024 08:31
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MrBear12
Supreme |
10-Jun-2024 04:52
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The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.? ? Charlie Munger | |||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
04-Jun-2024 03:00
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theregister.com/AMP/2024/06/03/nyse_technical_error/
Today's trading volatility caused by error.
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MrBear12
Supreme |
03-Jun-2024 07:13
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A nice article. Happy reading! Dow trails Nasdaq by most in a year. What it means for the stock market. (msn.com)
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MrBear12
Supreme |
01-Jun-2024 09:35
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I also wanted to provide an update on gold, a time-tested asset that can help stabilise your portfolio during volatile times. While gold' s performance this year has been modest so far, it has shown impressive resilience. Its price has remained relatively steady, only briefly dipping in February. This highlights gold' s unique ability to mitigate risk, especially when stock markets decline. The chart below shows how gold prices held steady even as real interest rates spiked since June. Real rates refer to interest rates after adjusting for inflation. When real rates rise quickly, it often signals economic uncertainty but gold prices stayed calm. Several factors continue to support gold prices:
In summary, gold' s historically low to negative correlation to stocks and bonds makes it an excellent portfolio diversifier. It can mitigate overall risk, especially during downturns or crises. Rather than own physical gold, we can invest in Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or Gold Equity Unit Trust (UT) Funds that offer leverage to gold spot price. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
01-Jun-2024 09:13
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The Dow closed out the last day in May mixed. Despite last minute buying, the nasdaq still remained in the red for the day, but had been hitting record highs this May. Market looks neutral with sustained selling towards the end of the month matched by last minute buying to close off May positive. Debunks the sell away in May theory. Come June, we expect some bargain hunting and close watch on inflation figures.  Have a good week-end with family and, teachers and students, enjoy your school holidays!
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MrBear12
Supreme |
22-May-2024 08:57
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FEAR & GREED INDEX FAQSWhat is the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index? The Fear & Greed Index is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The theory is based on the logic that excessive fear tends to drive down share prices, and too much greed tends to have the opposite effect. How is Fear & Greed Calculated? The Fear & Greed Index is a compilation of seven different indicators that measure some aspect of stock market behavior. They are market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand. The index tracks how much these individual indicators deviate from their averages compared to how much they normally diverge. The index gives each indicator equal weighting in calculating a score from 0 to 100, with 100 representing maximum greediness and 0 signaling maximum fear. How often is the Fear & Greed Index calculated? Every component and the Index are calculated as soon as new data becomes available. How to use Fear & Greed Index? The Fear & Greed Index is used to gauge the mood of the market. Many investors are emotional and reactionary, and fear and greed sentiment indicators can alert investors to their own emotions and biases that can influence their decisions. When combined with fundamentals and other analytical tools, the Index can be a helpful way to assess market sentiment. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
18-May-2024 07:42
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Was it WB who said sell when others are greedy?
This is a greedy market. Do we sell then?? Or do we share and join in the greed?? No one likes to see others make money while we stand on the sidelines. No one wants to let the other make while we watch. You already know the answers. |
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