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YZJ Shipbldg SGD
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The Only Shipbuilding Blue Chip in SGX!
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aragosta
Elite |
22-Sep-2023 03:01
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Why Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. Could Be Worth Watching While Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the SGX over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock&rsquo s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy?   Is Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Still Cheap? The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It&rsquo s trading around 30% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) today, you&rsquo d be paying a reasonable price for it. Furthermore, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)&rsquo s low beta implies that the stock is less volatile than the wider market. What does the future of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) look like?  Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it&rsquo s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 28% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings). It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation. I took the trouble to collate and summarise, please take some time to read it if you are long term, and dont kpkb if price go up or gp down..... anyway, you are supposed   to dyoddd......
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aragosta
Elite |
22-Sep-2023 02:50
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Following is an a financial house analysis of YZJSH' s fundamentals in summary...... it is meant for those long term investors..... for the mercenaries, it would not be useful to you, because you don' t understand anyway..... ******************** Yangzijiang is trading at 30% below this financial analyst&rsquo s estimate of its fair value (current price of $1.74 vs fair value estimate of $2.26). Should you add Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) to your Watchlist? Valuation [Is YZJSH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?] a)  Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers ■ Price-To-Earnings vs Peers:  YZJSH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the peer average (13.5x). b)  Share Price vs Fair Value ■ Below Fair Value:  YZJSH (SGD1.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SGD2.26) ■ Significantly Below Fair Value:  YZJSH is trading below fair value by 30%. Forecasted Growth [Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) is forecasted to grow earnings and revenue by 11.3% and 9.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11.4%. Return on equity is forecast to be 17.5% in 3 years.] a)  Analyst Future Growth Forecasts ■ Earnings vs Savings Rate:  YZJSH' s forecast earnings growth (11.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2%). ■ Earnings vs Market: YZJSH' s earnings (11.3% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the SG market (8.1% per year). ■ Revenue vs Market: YZJSH' s revenue (9.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the SG market (4.4% per year). Past Earnings Performance:  [Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)' s earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -3.7%, while the Machinery industry saw earnings growing at 12.3% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 5.6% per year. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)' s return on equity is 17.3%, and it has net margins of 14.2%.] a) Earnings and Revenue History ■ Quality Earnings: YZJSH has high quality earnings. ■ Growing Profit Margin: YZJSH' s current net profit margins (14.2%) are higher than last year (11.8%). b) Past Earnings Growth Analysis ■ Accelerating Growth: YZJSH' s earnings growth over the past year (40.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (-3.7% per year). ■ Earnings vs Industry:  YZJSH earnings growth over the past year (40.4%) exceeded the Machinery industry -21.2%. Balance Sheet Health [Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) has a total shareholder equity of CN¥ 18.4B and total debt of CN¥ 5.1B, which brings its debt-to-equity ratio to 27.5%. Its total assets and total liabilities are CN¥ 34.5B and CN¥ 16.1B respectively. ] a) Financial Position Analysis ■ Short Term Liabilities: YZJSH&rsquo s short term assets (CN¥ 22.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥ 15.0B). ■ Long Term Liabilities: YZJSH' s short term assets (CN¥ 22.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥ 1.1B). b) Debt to Equity History and Analysis ■ Debt Level: YZJSH has more cash than its total debt. ■ Reducing Debt: YZJSH' s debt to equity ratio has increased from 13.7% to 27.5% over the past 5 years. ■ Debt Coverage: YZJSH' s debt is well covered by operating cash flow (109.9%). ■ Interest Coverage: YZJSH earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern Dividend [Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) is a dividend paying company with a current yield of 2.78% that is well covered by earnings.] ■ Growing Dividend: YZJSH' s dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years ■ Notable Dividend: YZJSH' s dividend (2.78%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the SG market (2.63%). ■ Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (32.1%), YZJSH' s dividend payments are well covered by earnings. [Note: this is not mentioned in this report, but Management has already committed to increase its payment ratio from the profits going forward.And with the expectant increase in earnings, there is certainly a likelihood of an increase in dividends] Full Report here > https://simplywall.st/stocks/sg/capital-goods/sgx-bs6/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-shares/past |
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aragosta
Elite |
21-Sep-2023 22:48
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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Inverse direction between ASP and cost driving margin upcycle ■ We visited YZJSB' s New Yard and Xinfu Yard in Jiangyin on 19 September. The yards are currently executing orders clinched in 2021. ■ The inversed direction between ship prices (+c.30%) and steel prices (-c.40%) since May 2021 should lead to a margin expansion for YZJSB in FY24-25F, in our view. ■ Its improving earnings quality in FY24F (we project 15% EPS growth) could stand out given the 4.4% aggregate net profit growth for the Singapore companies we cover. ■ Reiterate Add with a higher TP of S$1.96 at 50% premium (previously 30%) to the average P/BV of CY23F for regional yards on YZJSB' s superior margins and ROE Full Report here > https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=6a8789cc-2d0a-432e-a54b-10a3f846a1aa& rpt=72619E25-569A-9847-6C1E-47838CB51D1B
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aragosta
Elite |
21-Sep-2023 22:43
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YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING: Bright outlook for years to come?> With a suite of global customers and their strong orders for ships, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is not vulnerable to the current weak domestic Chinese economy. Indeed its stock price has run up  34%  year-to-date, trading at $1.72 recently.   > This is on the back of its robust business performance: For 1HFY23, it    reported a 16% increase in revenue to RMB11.3 billion and a 47% increase in net profit to RMB1.73 billion, riding on its core shipbuilding business.    > The company' s orderbook is strong, with a total value of   US$14.7 billion as of June 30, 2023. This is the highest orderbook value in the company' s history, which means that its future financial performance is on strong footing. > CGS-CIMB is forecasting  RMB3.6 b (S$670 m)  profit for full-year 2023. And a dividend yield of 3.9% -- based on a forecast rise from RMB0.25 in 2022 to RMB0.35 this year.    > With a market cap of around  S$6.76 billion  currently, the stock is trading at ~10X PE (on CGS-CIMB' s forecast FY23 earnings)  -- which is not an unattractive valuation. https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/946-2023/15372-yangzijiang-shipbuilding-bright-outlook-for-years-to-come |
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Winnertakeall
Veteran |
21-Sep-2023 19:42
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Brokers take: CGS-CIMB expects Yangzijiang margins to improve as ship prices rise, steel fallsRISING ship prices and a downtrend in steel prices could help  Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : BS6 +4.19%&rsquo s margins improve in FY2024-25, CGS-CIMB said on Wednesday (Sep 20).  The research team, citing Bloomberg, said global newbuild containership prices have increased by around 30 per cent since May 2021, while steel prices have retreated by about 40 per cent. It raised its target price on Yangzijiang to S$1.96 from S$1.87 and maintained its &ldquo add&rdquo call on the counter. The new target is a 50 per cent premium to the group&rsquo s average price-to-book value for the 2023 calendar year for regional yards, after taking into account the group&rsquo s &ldquo superior margins and return on equity&rdquo , CGS-CIMB said.  The research team visited the group&rsquo s New Yard and Xinfu Yard in Jiangyin on Tuesday and noted that since its previous visits in 2008 and 2013, the group has climbed up the shipbuilding value chain.  &ldquo (It) now builds large-scale vessels with systematic yard workflows,&rdquo CGS-CIMB added.   |
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fuzzyshares
Senior |
21-Sep-2023 17:37
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9/18, 1.67-1.71, closed 1.70, 11m, T-day
9/19, 1.65-1.71, closed 1.65, 18m 9/20, 1.65-1.69, closed 1.67, 15m 9/21, 1.67-1.75, closed 1.74, 30m Fri 9/22 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. A green shoot in a bed of roses. The move that defied weak market sentiment. |
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Tracer63
Master |
21-Sep-2023 14:34
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Tgt 1.77 - 1.78 | ||
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emailpeter
Senior |
21-Sep-2023 14:30
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In light of the huge breakthru orders, and hopefully their other ventures prove stablely fruitful, I am confident this share will be pushed up by BB' s (gangsters) and Institutions to $2.00 and more. That is an upside of 18% from 1.70. Although I hold equal value of both SB and FH, I am more confident of upside here, more so than FH going up 18% from 36c to 43c. Investors here know, SH is a clean cut company, uncluttered. Far far less convoluted, unlike the uncertainty and outlook of FH. The Top institutional shareholders here are stablely anchored and commited to long term. | ||
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emailpeter
Senior |
21-Sep-2023 14:21
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I do not have actual PDF of full report. But paste here the truncated one.
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aragosta ( Date: 20-Sep-2023 17:55) Posted:
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Senior
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Senior
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emailpeter ( Date: 20-Sep-2023 10:09) Posted:
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Senior
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9/18, 1.67-1.71, closed 1.70, 11m
9/19, 1.65-1.71, closed 1.65, 18m
9/20, 1.65-1.69, closed 1.67, 15m
Thr 9/21 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Was lost but found.
Elite
x 0
Alert Admin
Talking about brokerage calls, DBS Research has an even higher TP of $1.90.... but it is this fundamental analysis report that you should take note....
" Record high order backlog boosts earnings visibility through 2025.  Yangzijiang&rsquo s yards are full through 2026 with an orderbook of US$14.7bn. This is expected to propel an earnings CAGR of 15% in the next three years, driven by both revenue growth and margin expansion, as over 70% of its orderbook is made up of containership orders that command higher value and margins.......expect further uplift in its orderbook, boosted by potential orders for large LNG carriers."
When I talked to my RM, that there are at least half a dozen contract wins that are not added to its total order book, he told me that their researchers are pretty aware of it, and will keep note of it in its next revision..... dyoddd anyway
 
Senior
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Happy investing to all here. And @aragosta, we appreciate and look forward to your constant updates.
Here is an excerpt from UOBKH :-
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)
Trading buy range: S$1.50-1.51 Last price: S$1.65
Target price: S$1.71 Protective stop: S$1.45
Price could have formed a price top at S$1.79. It could retrace to the cloud support in the next few days. The MACD is still bullish with both of its lines above the zero line. The thick cloud support should be able to provide support to the price correction.
The potential upside target is S$1.71. Stop-loss could be placed at S$1.45.
Approximate timeframe on average: 1-2 weeks (initiate this trade idea if the stock hits the entry price range within three trading days)
Our institutional research has a fundamental BUY and target price of S$1.88. 
Senior
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9/15, 1.68-1.71, closed 1.68, 16m
9/18, 1.67-1.71, closed 1.70, 11m
9/19, 1.65-1.71, closed 1.65, 18m
Wed 9/20 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Another sell down.
Senior
x 1
Alert Admin
9/14, 1.66-1.70, closed 1.69, 16m
9/15, 1.68-1.71, closed 1.68, 16m
9/18, 1.67-1.71, closed 1.70, 11m
Tue 9/19 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Normal trades, normal close, a normal day.
Elite
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I think may go 168 > 160 , then see got support
Dyodd
Senior
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fuzzyshares ( Date: 14-Sep-2023 18:00) Posted:
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9/13, 1.69-1.72, closed 1.69, 12m
9/14, 1.66-1.70, closed 1.69, 16m
9/15, 1.68-1.71, closed 1.68, 16m
Mon 9/18 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Checked. Again YZJSH was bought down at closing by 7m matching shares @ 1.68. What a bummer to close the week. Well tomorrow is another day.
Elite
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Pretty lady said as of date there are six contract wins worth more than a billion dollars not covered in the half yearly results briefing.... meanwhile......
Japan' s Lepta Shipping dives into gas with order for midsize carrier quartet
Japan' s Lepta Shipping dives into gas with order for midsize carrier quartet
Japan' s Lepta Shipping is said to have dived into the midsize LPG carrier segment with an order for a series of 40,000-cbm newbuildings in China. 
Gas players following the shipbuilding market said Lepta - a joint venture between Japanese shipowner Nissen Kaiun and trading house Mitsui & Co - has struck a deal with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding for four dual-fuel midsize gas carriers to be delivered between 2026 and 2027.    The joint venture company has splashed out close to $270m on the dual-fuel fully refrigerated LPG ships 
The newbuildings will be constructed by Jiangsu Yangzi-Mitsui Shipbuilding Co, a tie-up between Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Japan' s Mitsui E& S Shipbuilding.