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SIA
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SIA revived
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mav1ryan
Veteran |
21-Sep-2023 13:01
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IMO if bank put in a target price of $6.44, the realistic stock price will be in the $5.xx range.. | ||
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beetlejuice
Master |
21-Sep-2023 12:29
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The ocean always looks turbulent & treacherous on the surface. But viewed from high up in the air, it's actually calm & beautiful.
Hope to bring out the difference betw short term wiggle wiggles (pareidolia) & long term investing thro this ocean views analogy.
🌊 🌊 💰 🧧
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temp123
Senior |
21-Sep-2023 11:42
Yells: "." |
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Yes
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kingofgamblers
Senior |
21-Sep-2023 10:49
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Wah, keep dropping everyday. go back to $5? | ||
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Startsmm
Member |
20-Sep-2023 10:13
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So the target price will change every month, very stupid 🙄 TP | ||
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Joelton
Supreme |
20-Sep-2023 10:05
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UOB Kay Hian lowers SIA&rsquo s target price to $6.44 as August&rsquo s operation data disappointed
 
UOB Kay Hian analyst Roy Chen is maintaining his &ldquo sell&rdquo call on Singapore Airlines (SIA) C6L -2.21% with a reduced target price of $6.44 from $6.82 previously, after the company released its operation data for the month of August.
 
Chen&rsquo s target price is based on 1.26x FY2025 P/B, or 1 standard deviation (s.d.) above the long-term historical mean P/B of 1.08x.
 
He believes that despite the airline&rsquo s excellent operating track record and strong balance sheet in comparison to regional peers, SIA&rsquo s profitability has likely peaked and its earnings performance ahead is &ldquo due for normalisation&rdquo .
 
SIA&rsquo s passenger capacity in August largely remained flat at 85.8% of pre-pandemic levels, slightly down from 86.1% in July. Chen notes that this is slightly behind his projected 87%.
 
The airline&rsquo s passenger load factor similarly showed a dip of 1.6 percentage points (ppt) m-o-m to 88.2%, down from 89.8% in the previous month.
 
&ldquo As a result of the flat passenger capacity and lower passenger load factors, [SIA&rsquo s] passengre load declined 2.1% m-o-m in August,&rdquo notes the analyst.
 
Meanwhile, cargo capacity also remained flat m-o-m at 88.9% of pre-pandemic levels.
 
Cargo load factor stood at 51.2% in August, down 1.2 ppt m-o-m or 3.0 ppt y-o-y, whilst cargo load declined 2.7% m-o-m but was comparatively up 0.2% y-o-y.
 
In his report dated Sept 19, Chen also notes that the airline&rsquo s cargo load factor may be affected by the subdued global trade outlook in the near term with the global manufacturing product and manufacturing information (PMI) and new export order sub-index remaining in contractionary territory at 49.0 and 47.0 respectively.
 
On a positive note, Chen observes that SIA resumed services to Busan, South Korea whilst Scoot resumed services to Nanchang, China, taking the company&rsquo s total passenger network to cover 119 destinations as compared to 137 destinations pre-pandemic.
 
However, the global jet fuel price index has seen a sharp rise of over 40% since end-June, which has been driven by rising air travel demand against a more constrained fuel supply.
 
Chen notes that due to the advanced booking nature of air ticket sales, the airlines&rsquo near-term profitability is &ldquo likely to take a hit&rdquo , as the airfare levels of sold tickets would have been fixed but operating cost would still be &ldquo affected by the upswing&rdquo of jet fuel cost, as long as the airline has not fully hedged its jet fuel consumption.
 
He points out that SIA has hedged about 40% of its projected fuel consumption for the rest of FY2024.
 
Chen understands that the medium-to-long term impact of jet fuel price is more difficult to quantify, as it depends on if and by how much airlines are able to pass down the incremental fuel costs to end-customers.
 
&ldquo This, in turn, would be a function of the prevailing market conditions, including the capacity supply and demand dynamics and competition levels,&rdquo writes the analyst.
 
Taking into account SIA&rsquo s July to August operating data and factoring in recent jet fuel price movements as well as the company&rsquo s hedging position, Chen estimates SIA&rsquo s 2QFY2024 earnings (excluding forex gains/losses) to range between $420 million to $550 million.
 
For more stories about where money flows, click here for Capital Section
 
He notes that this is lower than 1QFY2024&rsquo s reported net profit of $734 million and 2QFY2023&rsquo s reported net profit of $557 million.
 
The analyst therefore has cut his FY2024 net profit forecast by 4% to $3.17 billion, down from $3.29 billion, following his adjusted pax capacity and lord recovery projections, as well as factoring in the negative impact of the recent jump of jet fuel prices on SIA&rsquo s near-term earnings.
 
Chen continues: &ldquo Our FY2024 net profit forecast includes a one-off accounting gain of $1.11 billion from the planned Air India-Vistara merger, excluding which SIA&rsquo s FY2024 earnings forecast would have been $2.06 billion.&rdquo
 
Meanwhile, although the analyst expects SIA to sustain its dividend payout of 38 cents in FY2024 and yield of 5.6%, he reckons it is &ldquo likely not sustainable in the long run&rdquo as the company&rsquo s profitability normalises beyond FY2024.
 
Key risks noted by Chen include the weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment dampening air travel and air cargo demand, and the faster-than-expected catching up of competition.
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pikachu
Master |
20-Sep-2023 06:23
![]() Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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I should have bought SIA during covid... | ||
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Bullrun2021
Member |
19-Sep-2023 17:03
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Honestly I have never look at their review. Written with a purpose.   |
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JF_123123123
Senior |
19-Sep-2023 16:35
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Those investing banks make money out from us the retailers. Of course they gives fake buy/sell news then we are the idiots if follow their signals =) | ||
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beetlejuice
Master |
19-Sep-2023 13:56
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Haha, u actually believe this stuff, which is mostly written to entertain & maybe sprinkled with bits of facts? 😬 🃏
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ruanlai
Elite |
19-Sep-2023 13:46
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BAD NEWS......UOB KH downgrades $6.44 due to disappointed operating performance. Avoid or short..... dyodd  https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/uob-kay-hian-lowers-sias-target-price-644-augusts-operation-data   |
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Startsmm
Member |
14-Sep-2023 10:10
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7.5 hope can see 7 first 🙏 😬 😢 | ||
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ruanlai
Elite |
14-Sep-2023 00:08
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Today SIA is reversing up and will be back above $7.50 soon as all know the Half year result reporting is due (Mar to Sep 23) and the results will be robust with good dividends are declaring on the way in mid Oct. No one will miss the opportunity to accumulate at this such a low price......... As for the Oil price increasing will be of no big deal as the increasing in oil price will at the end added on to the passengers...... DYODD |
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Startsmm
Member |
13-Sep-2023 11:19
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Oil price go up | ||
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112233
Master |
13-Sep-2023 10:58
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why this counter cannot fly high ? 😪 | ||
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betrayiscrime
Member |
13-Sep-2023 10:54
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joseph okiedokie , dont misled us with nomura target. there is no breakdown explanation | ||
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Secret_Squirrel
Master |
08-Sep-2023 15:01
Yells: "buy share cannot keep keep long will LPPL ,back to square on" |
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Seems that it is capital flight around the world that would affect share price, not plane flight.🤔
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Barcalo
Master |
07-Sep-2023 17:40
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Closed at 6.75 not bad. 👍 | ||
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Battle123
Elite |
07-Sep-2023 11:48
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Currently there's shld be more flights around the world
Less COVID and people have more budget to travel I also intending to book flights for coming Nov/ Dec 23 Stay Safe |
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beetlejuice
Master |
07-Sep-2023 10:27
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Really? Thot it started this year at around $5.50 & 28cts collected too.
Eagerly awaiting the year end dividend. 💰 🧧
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