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Latest Forum Topics / ComfortDelGro    Last:1.18    -0.01  Post Reply
COMFORT DELGRO - MOVING FORWARD
Winnertakeall
Veteran
31-Mar-2023 22:07     
 
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ComfortDelGro to spend $6b on switch to EVs

SINGAPORE Transport giant ComfortDelGro Corp expects to spend $6 billion to replace the bulk of its fleet of largely combustion-engined buses and taxis with electric vehicles (EVs), said its founding chairman. 

The amount is equivalent to almost three times the group current market value. 

Speaking at the group 20th anniversary gala dinner at the Ritz-Carlton, Millenia Singapore on Friday, Mr Lim Jit Poh said most of the investment will be for the acquisition of new EVs.

The evolution of the electric environment promises to open up avenues and opportunities for new business growth, the 83-year-old, who is retiring in April, told some 800 guests present. 

Mr Lim also said the group is seriously  looking at the distribution of electric vehicles, revisiting a motor vehicle distribution business Comfort Group had before its merger with property firm DelGro Corp in 2003. 

We are already leaders in bus and taxi operations, he said. In commercial  vehicles, we need to take advantage of this electrification phase to accelerate  and emerge as a leader.

Mr Lim added that ComfortDelGro will face a future which is tougher than that it faced in the first 20 years.

We have been laying the foundations for the future, he said, noting that the group is setting aside $30 million to learn and master managing autonomous  vehicles.

Farther afield, we are actively looking at the logistics business, said Mr Lim. 

The veteran chairman added that the group must consider expanding into sea and air transport. 

In terms of geography, we have to expand into Europe at a speed that keeps pace with what we have  been doing in Australia. Plans must be afoot in preparation for expansion  within our Asean region. We have to continue to keep large economies like China and India on our radar screen.& rdquo 

The chairman said ComfortDelGro had performed exceedingly well in the earlier years.

But our performance in more recent times has declined, he added. 

Our market capitalisation has dropped significantly from an initial  pro forma figure of $1.5 billion in 2003, rising to a peak of $6.8 billion in 2015  and now hovering around $2.6 billion just 73 per cent above the initial merger figure but 62 per cent below our peak. These are alarm bells.  

He continued: The tasks ahead are therefore very urgent and crucial for our survival.  We cannot afford to sit still... I am confident that we have the right resources to confront the challenges that stand before us.
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n3wbie
Master
22-Mar-2023 09:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good point and observation, thanks for sharing

vicloo      ( Date: 22-Mar-2023 05:52) Posted:

I believe COE going to crash soon, Comfort opportunity to buy new taxis. Both new car and preown are slowing. New car sales office are forced to utilise the coe they bidded on brand new cars in showrooms... see how this can sustain.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/used-car-sales-down-77-in-first-two-months-of-2023-new-car-registration-falls-238

n3wbie      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 22:50) Posted:

Not at all. Cash is king and staying defensive is key to ride out market volatilities and uncertainties. Like that the stock has a solid balance sheet with net cash of $650M and continue to be FCF positive which is important in today' s marke
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vicloo
Elite
22-Mar-2023 05:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I believe COE going to crash soon, Comfort opportunity to buy new taxis. Both new car and preown are slowing. New car sales office are forced to utilise the coe they bidded on brand new cars in showrooms... see how this can sustain.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/used-car-sales-down-77-in-first-two-months-of-2023-new-car-registration-falls-238

n3wbie      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 22:50) Posted:

Not at all. Cash is king and staying defensive is key to ride out market volatilities and uncertainties. Like that the stock has a solid balance sheet with net cash of $650M and continue to be FCF positive which is important in today' s market

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 14:47) Posted:

Thanks for the info, Sir. Looks like at least one house is pushing their case. Expects profit growth in FY23, 5% yield, reasonable 13x P/E valuation multiple and a robust net cash position to fuel European expansion initiatives amid rising interest rates. Relatively defensive as well as an essential service as tourism rebounds. What is there not to like? Accumulated more at $1.17. 
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n3wbie
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21-Mar-2023 22:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Not at all. Cash is king and staying defensive is key to ride out market volatilities and uncertainties. Like that the stock has a solid balance sheet with net cash of $650M and continue to be FCF positive which is important in today' s market

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 14:47) Posted:

Thanks for the info, Sir. Looks like at least one house is pushing their case. Expects profit growth in FY23, 5% yield, reasonable 13x P/E valuation multiple and a robust net cash position to fuel European expansion initiatives amid rising interest rates. Relatively defensive as well as an essential service as tourism rebounds. What is there not to like? Accumulated more at $1.17. 

n3wbie      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 14:16) Posted:

Hi there, RHB wrote an update today which may be of interest. Fyip

Keep BUY and SGD1.40 TP, 21% upside, 5% yield. ComfortDelGro has acquired a small private hire car (PHC) operation in the UK. Although it will not materially change the earnings outlook, it is part of CD&rsquo s larger aim to grow its presence beyond Singapore. We maintain our investment thesis that CD will deliver 11% profit growth in 2023, aided by recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services. The stock is trading at an attractive 2023 P/E of 13x vs its historical mean of 16x.

Acquisition of a small UK business. CD announced the acquisition of Vedamain Ltd, which operates a PHC business under the KingKabs brand in Chester, UK. CD will pay GBP7.25m (c.SGD11.82m) in cash for the acquisition. Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 PHC. Based on the last available filing, Vedamain had a cash balance of GBP0.6m and shareholder&rsquo s equity of GBP1.5m as of 30 Sep 2021.

Ambition to grow overseas. In a Straits Times article, CD' s outgoing chairman stated that the group&rsquo s next big leap would be a foray into Europe, starting with a joint bid with French transport group RATP to run three rail lines in Paris. Europe is a region where CD may not be able to start afresh, so it will grow through acquisitions. The chairman identified Europe as a key market for overseas growth, as other major markets such as North America, Africa, and India are not in its sights at the moment. CD has a target to derive 70% of its revenue overseas, up from around 45% now. Given its net cash position of SGD653.4m, ability to generate strong FCF, and available facilities of c.SGD775m, CD could undertake a sizeable transaction if an earnings-accretive acquisition is on offer.

Unchanged investment thesis. We reiterate our view that the public transport services in Singapore, especially rail services, should witness a strong increase in ridership with higher tourist arrivals in 2H23. Singapore&rsquo s taxi business could see a gradual reduction in rental rebates, and China taxi businesses should benefit from the reopening of the country&rsquo s economy. The strong FCF generation, we believe, will enable CD to pay higher dividends in 2023F-2025F. We estimate a 65% payout ratio for 2023F-2025F, which implies yields of 5-6%. Despite the headwinds from higher operating costs, uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, and lower bus service fees, CD could deliver c.10% profit CAGR in 2022-2025F. For the Bukit Merah and Jurong West Bus Packages in Singapore, we maintain our base case assumption that CD will retain these packages, but will see lower margins for the contract extensions. Note: Our TP includes a 12% ESG premium (based on our proprietary methodology) over the SGD1.25 FV
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MambaFinancial89
Senior
21-Mar-2023 14:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks for the info, Sir. Looks like at least one house is pushing their case. Expects profit growth in FY23, 5% yield, reasonable 13x P/E valuation multiple and a robust net cash position to fuel European expansion initiatives amid rising interest rates. Relatively defensive as well as an essential service as tourism rebounds. What is there not to like? Accumulated more at $1.17. 

n3wbie      ( Date: 21-Mar-2023 14:16) Posted:

Hi there, RHB wrote an update today which may be of interest. Fyip

Keep BUY and SGD1.40 TP, 21% upside, 5% yield. ComfortDelGro has acquired a small private hire car (PHC) operation in the UK. Although it will not materially change the earnings outlook, it is part of CD&rsquo s larger aim to grow its presence beyond Singapore. We maintain our investment thesis that CD will deliver 11% profit growth in 2023, aided by recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services. The stock is trading at an attractive 2023 P/E of 13x vs its historical mean of 16x.

Acquisition of a small UK business. CD announced the acquisition of Vedamain Ltd, which operates a PHC business under the KingKabs brand in Chester, UK. CD will pay GBP7.25m (c.SGD11.82m) in cash for the acquisition. Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 PHC. Based on the last available filing, Vedamain had a cash balance of GBP0.6m and shareholder&rsquo s equity of GBP1.5m as of 30 Sep 2021.

Ambition to grow overseas. In a Straits Times article, CD' s outgoing chairman stated that the group&rsquo s next big leap would be a foray into Europe, starting with a joint bid with French transport group RATP to run three rail lines in Paris. Europe is a region where CD may not be able to start afresh, so it will grow through acquisitions. The chairman identified Europe as a key market for overseas growth, as other major markets such as North America, Africa, and India are not in its sights at the moment. CD has a target to derive 70% of its revenue overseas, up from around 45% now. Given its net cash position of SGD653.4m, ability to generate strong FCF, and available facilities of c.SGD775m, CD could undertake a sizeable transaction if an earnings-accretive acquisition is on offer.

Unchanged investment thesis. We reiterate our view that the public transport services in Singapore, especially rail services, should witness a strong increase in ridership with higher tourist arrivals in 2H23. Singapore&rsquo s taxi business could see a gradual reduction in rental rebates, and China taxi businesses should benefit from the reopening of the country&rsquo s economy. The strong FCF generation, we believe, will enable CD to pay higher dividends in 2023F-2025F. We estimate a 65% payout ratio for 2023F-2025F, which implies yields of 5-6%. Despite the headwinds from higher operating costs, uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, and lower bus service fees, CD could deliver c.10% profit CAGR in 2022-2025F. For the Bukit Merah and Jurong West Bus Packages in Singapore, we maintain our base case assumption that CD will retain these packages, but will see lower margins for the contract extensions. Note: Our TP includes a 12% ESG premium (based on our proprietary methodology) over the SGD1.25 FV.

Conman      ( Date: 18-Mar-2023 19:49) Posted:

Is this a good news or bad news, Joelton, and why
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n3wbie
Master
21-Mar-2023 14:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi there, RHB wrote an update today which may be of interest. Fyip

Keep BUY and SGD1.40 TP, 21% upside, 5% yield. ComfortDelGro has acquired a small private hire car (PHC) operation in the UK. Although it will not materially change the earnings outlook, it is part of CD&rsquo s larger aim to grow its presence beyond Singapore. We maintain our investment thesis that CD will deliver 11% profit growth in 2023, aided by recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services. The stock is trading at an attractive 2023 P/E of 13x vs its historical mean of 16x.

Acquisition of a small UK business. CD announced the acquisition of Vedamain Ltd, which operates a PHC business under the KingKabs brand in Chester, UK. CD will pay GBP7.25m (c.SGD11.82m) in cash for the acquisition. Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 PHC. Based on the last available filing, Vedamain had a cash balance of GBP0.6m and shareholder&rsquo s equity of GBP1.5m as of 30 Sep 2021.

Ambition to grow overseas. In a Straits Times article, CD' s outgoing chairman stated that the group&rsquo s next big leap would be a foray into Europe, starting with a joint bid with French transport group RATP to run three rail lines in Paris. Europe is a region where CD may not be able to start afresh, so it will grow through acquisitions. The chairman identified Europe as a key market for overseas growth, as other major markets such as North America, Africa, and India are not in its sights at the moment. CD has a target to derive 70% of its revenue overseas, up from around 45% now. Given its net cash position of SGD653.4m, ability to generate strong FCF, and available facilities of c.SGD775m, CD could undertake a sizeable transaction if an earnings-accretive acquisition is on offer.

Unchanged investment thesis. We reiterate our view that the public transport services in Singapore, especially rail services, should witness a strong increase in ridership with higher tourist arrivals in 2H23. Singapore&rsquo s taxi business could see a gradual reduction in rental rebates, and China taxi businesses should benefit from the reopening of the country&rsquo s economy. The strong FCF generation, we believe, will enable CD to pay higher dividends in 2023F-2025F. We estimate a 65% payout ratio for 2023F-2025F, which implies yields of 5-6%. Despite the headwinds from higher operating costs, uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, and lower bus service fees, CD could deliver c.10% profit CAGR in 2022-2025F. For the Bukit Merah and Jurong West Bus Packages in Singapore, we maintain our base case assumption that CD will retain these packages, but will see lower margins for the contract extensions. Note: Our TP includes a 12% ESG premium (based on our proprietary methodology) over the SGD1.25 FV.

Conman      ( Date: 18-Mar-2023 19:49) Posted:

Is this a good news or bad news, Joelton, and why?

Joelton      ( Date: 18-Mar-2023 09:17) Posted:

ComfortDelGro unit buys British private hire company for £ 7.25 million
 
CITYFLEET Networks, a subsidiary of transport operator ComfortDelGro : C52 +0.86%, has bought a private hire company based in the United Kingdom called Vedamain for £ 7.25 million (S$11.8 million).
 
The deal, which is for the entire issued shared capital of Vedamain, was paid for entirely in cash to its sellers Nigel Hugh David Thomas and Caroline Jane Thomas and funded through internal resources, said ComfortDelGro in a bourse filing on Friday (Mar 17).
 
Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 private hire cars in Chester, England, under the KingKabs brand.
 
The purchase price was arrived at on a &ldquo willing buyer willing seller&rdquo basis following arm&rsquo s length negotiations, after taking into account the projected performance of Vedamain and historical analysis among other considerations, said the filing.
 
ComfortDelGro added that this acquisition has no material impact on its net tangible assets or earnings per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2023.
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Conman
Elite
18-Mar-2023 19:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Is this a good news or bad news, Joelton, and why?

Joelton      ( Date: 18-Mar-2023 09:17) Posted:

ComfortDelGro unit buys British private hire company for £ 7.25 million
 
CITYFLEET Networks, a subsidiary of transport operator ComfortDelGro : C52 +0.86%, has bought a private hire company based in the United Kingdom called Vedamain for £ 7.25 million (S$11.8 million).
 
The deal, which is for the entire issued shared capital of Vedamain, was paid for entirely in cash to its sellers Nigel Hugh David Thomas and Caroline Jane Thomas and funded through internal resources, said ComfortDelGro in a bourse filing on Friday (Mar 17).
 
Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 private hire cars in Chester, England, under the KingKabs brand.
 
The purchase price was arrived at on a &ldquo willing buyer willing seller&rdquo basis following arm&rsquo s length negotiations, after taking into account the projected performance of Vedamain and historical analysis among other considerations, said the filing.
 
ComfortDelGro added that this acquisition has no material impact on its net tangible assets or earnings per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2023.
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Joelton
Supreme
18-Mar-2023 09:17     
 
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ComfortDelGro unit buys British private hire company for £ 7.25 million
 
CITYFLEET Networks, a subsidiary of transport operator ComfortDelGro : C52 +0.86%, has bought a private hire company based in the United Kingdom called Vedamain for £ 7.25 million (S$11.8 million).
 
The deal, which is for the entire issued shared capital of Vedamain, was paid for entirely in cash to its sellers Nigel Hugh David Thomas and Caroline Jane Thomas and funded through internal resources, said ComfortDelGro in a bourse filing on Friday (Mar 17).
 
Vedamain operates a fleet of about 500 private hire cars in Chester, England, under the KingKabs brand.
 
The purchase price was arrived at on a &ldquo willing buyer willing seller&rdquo basis following arm&rsquo s length negotiations, after taking into account the projected performance of Vedamain and historical analysis among other considerations, said the filing.
 
ComfortDelGro added that this acquisition has no material impact on its net tangible assets or earnings per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2023.
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n3wbie
Master
17-Mar-2023 23:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thank you sir for sharing this / one good thing for CDG is with the high interest rate environment, they are relatively insulated given that they are in a strong net cash position of > $200m 

josephyeo      ( Date: 16-Mar-2023 13:49) Posted:

Repost for those who missed it.
 
ComfortDelgro - dividend history    
         
Action Type Ex Date Record Date Payment Date Details
DIVIDEND 8/5/2023 9/5/2023 18/5/2023 SGD 0.0176
DIVIDEND 8/5/2023 9/5/2023 18/5/2023 SGD 0.0246
DIVIDEND 19/8/2022 22/8/2022 29/8/2022 SGD 0.0141
DIVIDEND 19/8/2022 22/8/2022 29/8/2022 SGD 0.0285
DIVIDEND 9/5/2022 10/5/2022 27/5/2022 SGD 0.021
DIVIDEND 20/8/2021 23/8/2021 2/9/2021 SGD 0.021
DIVIDEND 7/5/2021 10/5/2021 20/5/2021 SGD 0.0143
DIVIDEND 1/6/2020 2/6/2020 9/6/2020 SGD 0.0529
DIVIDEND 20/8/2019 21/8/2019 28/8/2019 SGD 0.045
DIVIDEND 6/5/2019 7/5/2019 14/5/2019 SGD 0.0615
DIVIDEND 16/8/2018 20/8/2018 28/8/2018 SGD 0.0435
DIVIDEND 3/5/2018 7/5/2018 14/5/2018 SGD 0.0605
DIVIDEND 17/8/2017 21/8/2017 28/8/2017 SGD 0.0435
DIVIDEND 3/5/2017 5/5/2017 15/5/2017 SGD 0.0605

For info only. Dyodd.
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Joelton
Supreme
17-Mar-2023 11:52     
 
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RHB sees compelling valuations and strong yields in ComfortDelGro
 
RHB Group Research is reiterating its &ldquo buy&rdquo recommendation on public and private transport operator ComfortDelGro (CDG) C52 -1.69% with an unchanged target price of $1.40, on the back of compelling valuations and strong yields.
 
Analyst Shekhar Jaiswal expects the stock to deliver 11% profit growth in FY2023 ending December, aided by the recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services.
 
SBS Transit S61 0.00% , the group&rsquo s Singapore public transport subsidiary has reported continuing improvements in rail ridership. The average daily ridership in February was 51% and 38% higher than the ones in the same month for 2022 and 2021 respectively. But on a ytd basis, average daily ridership was 7% lower than 2019 levels.
 
&ldquo We believe this improvement, which should sustain itself during the coming months, will help support the profits from the public transport business. While the taxi fleet in Singapore is on the decline, CDG has gradually increased its market leadership position within this segment,&rdquo says Jaiswal, adding that the strong demand for taxi services should continue to support driver earnings and enable CDG to gradually taper off rental rebates.
 
As the public transport ridership in Singapore had seen a strong recovery in 2022, with more people returned to work and leisure activities after two years of Covid-19-related restrictions. &ldquo We expect the public transport services, especially rail services, to witness a strong increase in ridership on higher tourist arrivals in 2H2023,&rdquo says the analyst.
 
He also expects the group&rsquo s Singapore and China taxi businesses to benefit from the East Asian nation&rsquo s economic reopening.
 
&ldquo Despite expectations of higher operating costs, the uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, and lower bus service fees, we believe CDG can deliver about 10% profit growth during FY2022 to FY2025,&rdquo says Jaiswal, who also expects a higher dividend payout in FY2023. He estimates a 65% payout ratio for FY2023 to FY2025, which implies yields of 5-6%.
 
Overall, Jaiswal sees the stock as attractive as its share price has outperformed the rapidly falling Straits Times Index (STI) in the last month, as investors value its ability to deliver growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, as well as its ability to sustain higher dividend payouts. At this point, the stock is trading at an attractive FY2023 P/E of 13 times, compared to its historical mean of 16 times.
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Joelton
Supreme
17-Mar-2023 11:51     
 
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CapitaLand Investment, CDL, UOL are top property picks on trading discount: CGS-CIMB
 
CGS-CIMB on Thursday (Mar 16) reiterated its &ldquo overweight&rdquo view on Singapore&rsquo s property sector, eyeing opportunities amid trading discounts in counters such as CapitaLand Investment, City Developments Limited (CDL) and UOL Group.
 
The brokerage still considers the developers&rsquo valuations &ldquo inexpensive&rdquo , given that they were trading at a 47 per cent discount to revalued net asset value &ndash close to one standard deviation below the long-term mean discount.
 
This comes as the analysts noted a rebound in home sales in February, where 470 units were transacted.
 
Excluding executive condominiums, private home sales stood at 432 units, the highest in terms of volume since property cooling measures were announced last September.
 
However, CGS-CIMB also cautioned that price growth among private homes is likely to moderate in 2023, based on historical data in January and February this year. The research house expects prices to rise by a moderated zero to 3 per cent this year.
 
Despite this, investors can still seek out opportunities in developers with visible residential pipelines and strong balance sheets that would enable them to tap any opportunity during this slower cycle, said CGS-CIMB.
 
Top picks listed by the brokerage include CapitaLand Investment, with a target price of S$4.50 CDL, with a target price of S$8.97 and UOL Group, with a target of S$8. All three were given an &ldquo add&rdquo recommendation.
 
CDL, the analysts noted, has a potential launch pipeline of about 2,000 units. Share price catalyst for the group &ndash which currently trades at a 57 per cent discount &ndash could come from the recovery of the global hospitality industry.
 
However, demand for housing could be dampened by faster-than-expected interest rate hikes, slower economic outlook and property cooling measures, said CGS-CIMB.
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josephyeo
Elite
16-Mar-2023 13:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Repost for those who missed it.
 
ComfortDelgro - dividend history    
         
Action Type Ex Date Record Date Payment Date Details
DIVIDEND 8/5/2023 9/5/2023 18/5/2023 SGD 0.0176
DIVIDEND 8/5/2023 9/5/2023 18/5/2023 SGD 0.0246
DIVIDEND 19/8/2022 22/8/2022 29/8/2022 SGD 0.0141
DIVIDEND 19/8/2022 22/8/2022 29/8/2022 SGD 0.0285
DIVIDEND 9/5/2022 10/5/2022 27/5/2022 SGD 0.021
DIVIDEND 20/8/2021 23/8/2021 2/9/2021 SGD 0.021
DIVIDEND 7/5/2021 10/5/2021 20/5/2021 SGD 0.0143
DIVIDEND 1/6/2020 2/6/2020 9/6/2020 SGD 0.0529
DIVIDEND 20/8/2019 21/8/2019 28/8/2019 SGD 0.045
DIVIDEND 6/5/2019 7/5/2019 14/5/2019 SGD 0.0615
DIVIDEND 16/8/2018 20/8/2018 28/8/2018 SGD 0.0435
DIVIDEND 3/5/2018 7/5/2018 14/5/2018 SGD 0.0605
DIVIDEND 17/8/2017 21/8/2017 28/8/2017 SGD 0.0435
DIVIDEND 3/5/2017 5/5/2017 15/5/2017 SGD 0.0605

For info only. Dyodd.
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Entropy72
Master
15-Mar-2023 23:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Interest rates remain high. Energy prices plunging. Good to stay with defensive companies (stable revenue) with net cash and which benefit significantly from lower energy costs.

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n3wbie
Master
15-Mar-2023 22:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Recalled when CDG was excluded from MSCI back in 2020 together with SPH and SATS, the net funds outflow was massive. Time will tell if this is value hunting or value trap

Entropy72      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 21:55) Posted:

Yup, MSCI even more challenging with the likes of SEA and Grab included.

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 18:33) Posted:

This is quite a tall order so unless they can work out a strategic review of sorts to unlock value, re-entry into STI may be tricky. In fact, it would be more impactful if they can be included in MSCI as that has greater institutional following but again another tall order. They need to first fix the house, utilize their strong balance sheet well and re-rating will follo
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Entropy72
Master
15-Mar-2023 21:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yup, MSCI even more challenging with the likes of SEA and Grab included.

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 18:33) Posted:

This is quite a tall order so unless they can work out a strategic review of sorts to unlock value, re-entry into STI may be tricky. In fact, it would be more impactful if they can be included in MSCI as that has greater institutional following but again another tall order. They need to first fix the house, utilize their strong balance sheet well and re-rating will follow

Entropy72      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 17:17) Posted:

To reenter STI, a company must be in top 20 market cap of SGX.   So the bar is not just the 30th ranked constitudent.   CDG is not in the current STI reserve list of 5 non-constitudent stocks
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desmlee
Member
15-Mar-2023 20:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		thanks for sharing

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 20:33) Posted:

RHB reiterated the Buy call today based on compelling valuations as per your note:

Stay BUY and SGD1.40 TP, 21% upside and 5% 2023F yield. ComfortDelGro should deliver 11% profit growth in 2023, aided by the recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services. CD&rsquo s share price has outperformed the rapidly falling STI in the last month, as investors value its ability to deliver growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties. They also like its ability to sustain higher dividend payouts. The stock is trading at an attractive 2023 P/E of 13x vs its historical mean of 16x.

 Singapore rail ridership and taxi earnings to improve. SBS Transit (SBUS SP, NR), CD&rsquo s Singapore public transport subsidiary, is witnessing continuing improvements in rail ridership. The average daily ridership in February was 51% and 38% higher than the ones in Feb 2022 and Feb 2021 (Figure 1). The YTD average daily rail ridership was only 7% below 2019&rsquo s levels. We believe this improvement, which should sustain itself during the coming months, will help support the profits from the public transport business. While the taxi fleet in Singapore is on the decline, CD has gradually increased its market leadership position within this segment. Strong demand for taxi services should continue to support driver earnings and enable CD to gradually taper off rental rebates.


 Steady earnings growth. Public transport ridership in Singapore had seen  a strong recovery in 2022 as more people returned to work and  leisure activities after two years of COVID-19-related restrictions. We  expect the public transport services, especially rail services, to witness a  strong increase in ridership on higher tourist arrivals in 2H23. CD&rsquo s  Singapore and China taxi businesses should also benefit from the East  Asian nation&rsquo s economic reopening. Despite expectations of higher 1.15 operating costs, the uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, 1.10 and lower bus service fees, we believe CD can deliver c.10% profit growth  during 2022-2025.

 Expectations for higher dividends. Despite our estimate of a gradual rise in capex during 2023-2025, we expect CD to deliver a FCF yield of 7.7-9.4% during this period. This, we believe, will enable the company to pay higher dividends. While CD has a policy to pay out at least 50% of PATMI as dividends, we estimate a 65% payout ratio for 2023-2025, which implies yields of 5-6%. Note: Our TP includes a 12% ESG premium (based on our proprietary methodology) over the SGD1.25 FV.

 Key downside risks: i) Losing the Bukit Merah and Jurong West Bus Packages or retaining them at lower-than-estimated service fees, ii) higher-than-estimated operating costs, and iii) weak taxi earnings from a failure to gradually phase out rental rebates.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 11:16) Posted:

Fully agree on the fading market darling analogy. Recall that there was some hype and analyst push around CDG as an ESG play and possible inclusion in ESG indexes. Boy, that was short lived amid the greenwashing and ESG fallout. With its scale as one of  the largest land transport companies in the world, I like the counter long term but an exiciting catalyst for rerating is really not apparenty. Just relying on good old valuations which appear attractive for now...   
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n3wbie
Master
15-Mar-2023 20:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		RHB reiterated the Buy call today based on compelling valuations as per your note:

Stay BUY and SGD1.40 TP, 21% upside and 5% 2023F yield. ComfortDelGro should deliver 11% profit growth in 2023, aided by the recoveries in Singapore rail ridership, Australia bus charters, UK coach services, and Singapore and China taxi services. CD&rsquo s share price has outperformed the rapidly falling STI in the last month, as investors value its ability to deliver growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties. They also like its ability to sustain higher dividend payouts. The stock is trading at an attractive 2023 P/E of 13x vs its historical mean of 16x.

 Singapore rail ridership and taxi earnings to improve. SBS Transit (SBUS SP, NR), CD&rsquo s Singapore public transport subsidiary, is witnessing continuing improvements in rail ridership. The average daily ridership in February was 51% and 38% higher than the ones in Feb 2022 and Feb 2021 (Figure 1). The YTD average daily rail ridership was only 7% below 2019&rsquo s levels. We believe this improvement, which should sustain itself during the coming months, will help support the profits from the public transport business. While the taxi fleet in Singapore is on the decline, CD has gradually increased its market leadership position within this segment. Strong demand for taxi services should continue to support driver earnings and enable CD to gradually taper off rental rebates.


 Steady earnings growth. Public transport ridership in Singapore had seen  a strong recovery in 2022 as more people returned to work and  leisure activities after two years of COVID-19-related restrictions. We  expect the public transport services, especially rail services, to witness a  strong increase in ridership on higher tourist arrivals in 2H23. CD&rsquo s  Singapore and China taxi businesses should also benefit from the East  Asian nation&rsquo s economic reopening. Despite expectations of higher 1.15 operating costs, the uncertainty over the timing of indexation formulas, 1.10 and lower bus service fees, we believe CD can deliver c.10% profit growth  during 2022-2025.

 Expectations for higher dividends. Despite our estimate of a gradual rise in capex during 2023-2025, we expect CD to deliver a FCF yield of 7.7-9.4% during this period. This, we believe, will enable the company to pay higher dividends. While CD has a policy to pay out at least 50% of PATMI as dividends, we estimate a 65% payout ratio for 2023-2025, which implies yields of 5-6%. Note: Our TP includes a 12% ESG premium (based on our proprietary methodology) over the SGD1.25 FV.

 Key downside risks: i) Losing the Bukit Merah and Jurong West Bus Packages or retaining them at lower-than-estimated service fees, ii) higher-than-estimated operating costs, and iii) weak taxi earnings from a failure to gradually phase out rental rebates.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 11:16) Posted:

Fully agree on the fading market darling analogy. Recall that there was some hype and analyst push around CDG as an ESG play and possible inclusion in ESG indexes. Boy, that was short lived amid the greenwashing and ESG fallout. With its scale as one of  the largest land transport companies in the world, I like the counter long term but an exiciting catalyst for rerating is really not apparenty. Just relying on good old valuations which appear attractive for now...   

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 10:27) Posted:

Havent seen them buying back shares in an aggressive manner - think they last did around the 1.30s but stopped. Could also be for them to buy back shares at a level that they feel are undervalued, keep in treasury and use as ESOS. This stock feels like one of the many old market darlings that faded away and need something exciting to reclaim market' s interes
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n3wbie
Master
15-Mar-2023 18:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This is quite a tall order so unless they can work out a strategic review of sorts to unlock value, re-entry into STI may be tricky. In fact, it would be more impactful if they can be included in MSCI as that has greater institutional following but again another tall order. They need to first fix the house, utilize their strong balance sheet well and re-rating will follow

Entropy72      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 17:17) Posted:

To reenter STI, a company must be in top 20 market cap of SGX.   So the bar is not just the 30th ranked constitudent.   CDG is not in the current STI reserve list of 5 non-constitudent stocks.

ahbui8      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 15:06) Posted:

How many being exclusion from STI in the past manage to return back to STI constituent
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Entropy72
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15-Mar-2023 17:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		To reenter STI, a company must be in top 20 market cap of SGX.   So the bar is not just the 30th ranked constitudent.   CDG is not in the current STI reserve list of 5 non-constitudent stocks.

ahbui8      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 15:06) Posted:

How many being exclusion from STI in the past manage to return back to STI constituent.

Entropy72      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 12:44) Posted:

Market is voting machine in the short term and weighing machine in the long term.

CDG sentiment was hurt by exclusion from
STI. If it can regain $1.4 share price (market cap > $3B), it can possibly displace SATS in STI.

CDG got to work hard to demonstrate that it can sustainably pay out annual dividend of 10 cents. Then it's share price will recover to at least $1.50
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ahbui8
Master
15-Mar-2023 15:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How many being exclusion from STI in the past manage to return back to STI constituent.

Entropy72      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 12:44) Posted:

Market is voting machine in the short term and weighing machine in the long term.

CDG sentiment was hurt by exclusion from
STI. If it can regain $1.4 share price (market cap > $3B), it can possibly displace SATS in STI.

CDG got to work hard to demonstrate that it can sustainably pay out annual dividend of 10 cents. Then it's share price will recover to at least $1.50.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 15-Mar-2023 11:16) Posted:

Fully agree on the fading market darling analogy. Recall that there was some hype and analyst push around CDG as an ESG play and possible inclusion in ESG indexes. Boy, that was short lived amid the greenwashing and ESG fallout. With its scale as one of  the largest land transport companies in the world, I like the counter long term but an exiciting catalyst for rerating is really not apparenty. Just relying on good old valuations which appear attractive for now...   
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