logo transparent gif
top_white_spacer
Home Latest Stock Forum Topics MyCorner - Personal Stocks Porfolio Stock Lists Forex Investor Insights Investment News Investor Research & Links Dynamic Stock Charting FREE Registration About Us top spacer top spacer
 User Password Auto-Login
Enter Stock
 
righttip
branding

Back
First   < Newer   21-40 of 2943   Older>   Last  
Latest Forum Topics / OCBC Bank    Last:16.94    -0.08  Post Reply
ocbc buyers fight back from the shortists
chartistkaohz
Veteran
14-Mar-2025 15:55     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		Yes, with Singapore's 6-month T-bill yield dropping to 2.56%, OCBC shares look increasingly attractive. Lower risk-free rates make dividend-yielding bank stocks more appealing, especially OCBC, which offers a strong yield, steady cash flow, and long-term growth potential.

This aligns with your strategy of buying Singapore bank stocks when T-bill yields fall below 3%. Given OCBC?s healthy balance sheet, exposure to China?s recovery, and solid dividend payouts, this could be a good accumulation opportunity.

Would you also consider tracking the next OCBC dividend declaration and NIM trends for further confirmation?

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
14-Mar-2025 11:56     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		Global fund managers aggressively shorted Hong Kong stocks from 2020 to 2024 due to regulatory crackdowns, weak economic growth, and geopolitical risks. Now, the key question is whether they will start buying these "cigarette butt" stocks?deeply undervalued companies that still have some value left. Reasons They Might Buy HK Stocks Soon ("Cigarette Butt" Play) 1. Valuation at Multi-Year Lows Many Hong Kong and China stocks are trading at record low price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, levels not seen since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is significantly undervalued compared to global markets, making it attractive for contrarian investors. 2. Policy Support & Stimulus from China Beijing is easing monetary policy, cutting rates, and supporting property developers to stabilize the economy. Regulatory pressure on tech firms (Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan) has eased, which could lead to re-rating of major stocks. 3. Short-Covering & Positioning for a Rebound Hedge funds and institutional investors may close their short positions and shift toward long positions if economic data improves. Some smart money is already rotating into state-backed companies and infrastructure plays (e.g., Ping An, CNOOC). 4. US Rate Cuts in 2025 Could Help If the Fed cuts rates, it could weaken the USD and push more global liquidity into undervalued HK/China markets. Why They Might Still Stay Away 1. Lingering China Risks Ongoing concerns about China?s property sector, local government debt, and weak consumer confidence could keep investors cautious. Western institutional investors are still skeptical about China's growth sustainability and capital controls. 2. Better Alternatives Elsewhere US stocks and Japan?s Nikkei 225 are still attracting more capital due to better earnings visibility and corporate reforms. Some fund managers might prefer India, Indonesia, or Mexico over China as emerging market plays. 3. Geopolitical Risks US-China tensions (e.g., tariffs, Taiwan issues) could limit foreign capital inflows into Chinese stocks, including HK-listed firms. Conclusion: "Cigarette Butt" Rally or Value Trap? If China?s stimulus gains traction, HK stocks could rally as global funds rotate into value plays. However, if China?s economy fails to recover strongly, the "cigarette butt" approach might turn into a value trap, with stocks staying cheap for years. Key signal to watch: If heavyweight funds (like BlackRock, Temasek, or sovereign wealth funds) start accumulating HK stocks, it could trigger a broader re-rating. Are you considering a contrarian move into Hong Kong stocks now, or waiting for stronger confirmation?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Mar-2025 11:46) Posted:

A rally in Alibaba (9988.HK) and Tencent (0700.HK) could have a positive spillover effect on Ping An Insurance (2318.HK), but the impact depends on broader market sentiment, economic conditions, and sector-specific factors. Here?s why: Why Alibaba & Tencent Rally Matters for Ping An 1. Boost to Overall Market Sentiment Alibaba and Tencent are the two biggest tech stocks in Hong Kong. A strong rally in these stocks could lift the entire Hang Seng Index (HSI) and investor confidence, which might attract more capital into undervalued Chinese financials like Ping An. 2. Improved Investor Appetite for China Exposure If Alibaba and Tencent rally due to stronger-than-expected earnings, improved regulatory conditions, or China?s economic recovery, it could signal a shift in foreign investor sentiment toward China-related stocks, including financials like Ping An. 3. Wealth Effect on Chinese Consumers A rising stock market (driven by tech stocks) could boost consumer confidence and wealth, which benefits insurance and financial products demand?a core business for Ping An. What Could Hold Ping An Back? 1. Sector-Specific Issues Ping An?s challenges are tied to China?s weak real estate market, as it has exposure to property developers (e.g., China Fortune Land). Even if tech stocks rally, Ping An?s valuation could remain pressured if real estate-related risks persist. 2. Government Policies & Interest Rate Environment If China?s monetary easing (rate cuts, stimulus) continues, it may help Ping An by supporting insurance and investment income, but slow economic growth could limit upside. 3. Foreign Fund Flows Favoring Tech Over Financials Investors may rotate into tech stocks first rather than insurers, meaning Ping An?s recovery could lag unless the financial sector also gets a boost. Conclusion A rally in Alibaba and Tencent could support Ping An indirectly by improving sentiment toward Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. However, Ping An?s performance will depend more on China?s real estate recovery, interest rate policies, and insurance demand rather than just a tech rebound. Would you consider adding Ping An if China?s real estate sector stabilizes, or are you more focused on other financial stocks?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:21) Posted:

With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior. Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation 1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%. If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return. Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives. 2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills. REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable. Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns. 3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up. Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills. 4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets. A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns. Conclusion If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me


chartistkaohz
Veteran
14-Mar-2025 11:46     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		A rally in Alibaba (9988.HK) and Tencent (0700.HK) could have a positive spillover effect on Ping An Insurance (2318.HK), but the impact depends on broader market sentiment, economic conditions, and sector-specific factors. Here?s why: Why Alibaba & Tencent Rally Matters for Ping An 1. Boost to Overall Market Sentiment Alibaba and Tencent are the two biggest tech stocks in Hong Kong. A strong rally in these stocks could lift the entire Hang Seng Index (HSI) and investor confidence, which might attract more capital into undervalued Chinese financials like Ping An. 2. Improved Investor Appetite for China Exposure If Alibaba and Tencent rally due to stronger-than-expected earnings, improved regulatory conditions, or China?s economic recovery, it could signal a shift in foreign investor sentiment toward China-related stocks, including financials like Ping An. 3. Wealth Effect on Chinese Consumers A rising stock market (driven by tech stocks) could boost consumer confidence and wealth, which benefits insurance and financial products demand?a core business for Ping An. What Could Hold Ping An Back? 1. Sector-Specific Issues Ping An?s challenges are tied to China?s weak real estate market, as it has exposure to property developers (e.g., China Fortune Land). Even if tech stocks rally, Ping An?s valuation could remain pressured if real estate-related risks persist. 2. Government Policies & Interest Rate Environment If China?s monetary easing (rate cuts, stimulus) continues, it may help Ping An by supporting insurance and investment income, but slow economic growth could limit upside. 3. Foreign Fund Flows Favoring Tech Over Financials Investors may rotate into tech stocks first rather than insurers, meaning Ping An?s recovery could lag unless the financial sector also gets a boost. Conclusion A rally in Alibaba and Tencent could support Ping An indirectly by improving sentiment toward Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. However, Ping An?s performance will depend more on China?s real estate recovery, interest rate policies, and insurance demand rather than just a tech rebound. Would you consider adding Ping An if China?s real estate sector stabilizes, or are you more focused on other financial stocks?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:21) Posted:

With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior. Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation 1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%. If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return. Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives. 2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills. REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable. Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns. 3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up. Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills. 4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets. A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns. Conclusion If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:15) Posted:

That?s a rational stance. A stable and predictable regulatory environment is crucial for long-term investing. When a government frequently changes policies in ways that disadvantage investors?whether through sudden tax hikes, shifting property curbs, or inconsistent financial regulations?it creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to plan long-term investments. Key Risks of Investing in Unpredictable Markets 1. Regulatory Uncertainty Sudden rule changes can wipe out expected returns or force costly adjustments. Examples: Unexpected property cooling measures, capital controls, or tax increases. 2. Erosion of Investor Confidence If the goalposts keep shifting, long-term investors may exit the market. Capital flight often follows inconsistent policy-making. 3. Sector-Specific Targeting Governments may favor certain industries while penalizing others, creating market distortions. Example: Real estate curbs that heavily impact developers but benefit state-backed firms. 4. Lack of Clear Exit Strategy When rules change unpredictably, it?s harder to plan entry and exit points. Long-term value investing requires policy consistency. What This Means for Your Investing Strategy Avoid markets where policies are unstable and anti-investor. Stick to jurisdictions with a track record of fair, transparent rules (e.g., Singapore, Switzerland). Watch for signs of government intervention before committing capital. If a country?s policies repeatedly disadvantage investors, it?s better to stay out than risk capital in an unpredictable environment.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MrBear12
Supreme
14-Mar-2025 10:12     
 
MrBear12 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: peace
Yells: "Peace and goodwill to all"
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		nominal $1 payment for land.

After all, all land in any country ultimately belongs to the government.

They are the law.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Mar-2025 10:09) Posted:

Through the weapon of law
In the 1960s and 1970s, the Singapore government acquired prime land and assets at relatively low prices through various policies and legislative measures. The key factors that allowed the government to secure these assets at "cigarette butt prices" or "tokens of appreciation" include:

1. Land Acquisition Act (1966)

The Singapore government passed the Land Acquisition Act in 1966, which allowed it to compulsorily acquire land for public purposes at pre-determined compensation rates.

Compensation was based on market prices before development plans were announced, ensuring that the government did not overpay for land.

Many private landowners had little choice but to sell at these lower, government-mandated prices.


2. Economic and Urban Renewal Priorities

The government focused on transforming Singapore into a modern financial hub, which required clearing slums and redeveloping urban areas.

Many old, underutilized assets in central areas (e.g., Boat Quay, Clarke Quay, and the Civic District) were acquired cheaply and later redeveloped into high-value commercial properties.


3. Weak Bargaining Power of Landowners

In the 1960s and 1970s, Singapore was still a developing nation, and many landowners lacked financial or legal means to negotiate.

Some owners of city-fringe properties were unaware of the future value of their land and accepted low compensation offers.


4. Creation of Government Agencies for Property Development

Housing & Development Board (HDB): Took over large tracts of land for public housing at minimal cost.

Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA): Acquired and redeveloped prime urban land into commercial and financial districts.

JTC Corporation: Acquired and developed industrial land, including Jurong.

Temasek Holdings and GLCs: Later, some of these prime assets were transferred to government-linked companies (GLCs) like CapitaLand and Mapletree.


5. Examples of Strategic Acquisitions

Marina Bay & Raffles Place: Originally waterfront and underutilized land, acquired at low cost and transformed into Singapore?s financial hub.

Bugis & Kampong Glam: Former red-light district and low-value shophouses redeveloped into vibrant commercial and tourism zones.

Orchard Road & Dhoby Ghaut: Once plantation land, acquired and later developed into prime shopping and commercial districts.


6. City-Fringe Land (Geylang, Queenstown, Tiong Bahru)

These areas, once considered peripheral or undesirable, were acquired at low cost.

Over time, they became prime locations as Singapore expanded, with property values skyrocketing.


Long-Term Impact

The government's aggressive land acquisition strategy allowed Singapore to:

Control urban development efficiently.

Generate massive economic value through redevelopment.

Ensure affordable public housing while also creating high-value commercial hubs.


This strategy is why today, much of Singapore?s prime land is government-owned or leased, with land scarcity driving high property prices.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
14-Mar-2025 10:09     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		Through the weapon of law
In the 1960s and 1970s, the Singapore government acquired prime land and assets at relatively low prices through various policies and legislative measures. The key factors that allowed the government to secure these assets at "cigarette butt prices" or "tokens of appreciation" include:

1. Land Acquisition Act (1966)

The Singapore government passed the Land Acquisition Act in 1966, which allowed it to compulsorily acquire land for public purposes at pre-determined compensation rates.

Compensation was based on market prices before development plans were announced, ensuring that the government did not overpay for land.

Many private landowners had little choice but to sell at these lower, government-mandated prices.


2. Economic and Urban Renewal Priorities

The government focused on transforming Singapore into a modern financial hub, which required clearing slums and redeveloping urban areas.

Many old, underutilized assets in central areas (e.g., Boat Quay, Clarke Quay, and the Civic District) were acquired cheaply and later redeveloped into high-value commercial properties.


3. Weak Bargaining Power of Landowners

In the 1960s and 1970s, Singapore was still a developing nation, and many landowners lacked financial or legal means to negotiate.

Some owners of city-fringe properties were unaware of the future value of their land and accepted low compensation offers.


4. Creation of Government Agencies for Property Development

Housing & Development Board (HDB): Took over large tracts of land for public housing at minimal cost.

Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA): Acquired and redeveloped prime urban land into commercial and financial districts.

JTC Corporation: Acquired and developed industrial land, including Jurong.

Temasek Holdings and GLCs: Later, some of these prime assets were transferred to government-linked companies (GLCs) like CapitaLand and Mapletree.


5. Examples of Strategic Acquisitions

Marina Bay & Raffles Place: Originally waterfront and underutilized land, acquired at low cost and transformed into Singapore?s financial hub.

Bugis & Kampong Glam: Former red-light district and low-value shophouses redeveloped into vibrant commercial and tourism zones.

Orchard Road & Dhoby Ghaut: Once plantation land, acquired and later developed into prime shopping and commercial districts.


6. City-Fringe Land (Geylang, Queenstown, Tiong Bahru)

These areas, once considered peripheral or undesirable, were acquired at low cost.

Over time, they became prime locations as Singapore expanded, with property values skyrocketing.


Long-Term Impact

The government's aggressive land acquisition strategy allowed Singapore to:

Control urban development efficiently.

Generate massive economic value through redevelopment.

Ensure affordable public housing while also creating high-value commercial hubs.


This strategy is why today, much of Singapore?s prime land is government-owned or leased, with land scarcity driving high property prices.

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me


chartistkao3
Elite
14-Mar-2025 04:17     
 
chartistkao3 About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin
It looks like market sentiment has turned negative, with investors reacting to new tariff threats and mixed inflation signals. The sharp sell-off in tech and consumer discretionary stocks suggests concerns over economic growth and higher costs.
The Dow is down over 650 points, with a 1.3% decline, while Nasdaq has slipped below 17,350. Adobe&rsquo s 13% plunge is particularly notable&mdash likely due to weak guidance or earnings disappointment. Apple and Amazon dropping over 2% also signals weakness in megacaps.
Are you looking at any buying opportunities in Singapore banks amid this market correction?
 
4o


chartistkao3      ( Date: 14-Mar-2025 03:20) Posted:

https://www.iqiyi.com/v_21bivc1c9tc.html
 
http://www.news.cn/ent/20250305/d2b46227060c4b288b735d2be64b3f60/c.html


chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:21) Posted:

With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior. Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation 1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%. If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return. Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives. 2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills. REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable. Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns. 3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up. Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills. 4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets. A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns. Conclusion If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkao3
Elite
14-Mar-2025 03:20     
 
chartistkao3 About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		https://www.iqiyi.com/v_21bivc1c9tc.html
 
http://www.news.cn/ent/20250305/d2b46227060c4b288b735d2be64b3f60/c.html


chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:21) Posted:

With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior. Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation 1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%. If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return. Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives. 2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills. REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable. Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns. 3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up. Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills. 4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets. A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns. Conclusion If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:15) Posted:

That?s a rational stance. A stable and predictable regulatory environment is crucial for long-term investing. When a government frequently changes policies in ways that disadvantage investors?whether through sudden tax hikes, shifting property curbs, or inconsistent financial regulations?it creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to plan long-term investments. Key Risks of Investing in Unpredictable Markets 1. Regulatory Uncertainty Sudden rule changes can wipe out expected returns or force costly adjustments. Examples: Unexpected property cooling measures, capital controls, or tax increases. 2. Erosion of Investor Confidence If the goalposts keep shifting, long-term investors may exit the market. Capital flight often follows inconsistent policy-making. 3. Sector-Specific Targeting Governments may favor certain industries while penalizing others, creating market distortions. Example: Real estate curbs that heavily impact developers but benefit state-backed firms. 4. Lack of Clear Exit Strategy When rules change unpredictably, it?s harder to plan entry and exit points. Long-term value investing requires policy consistency. What This Means for Your Investing Strategy Avoid markets where policies are unstable and anti-investor. Stick to jurisdictions with a track record of fair, transparent rules (e.g., Singapore, Switzerland). Watch for signs of government intervention before committing capital. If a country?s policies repeatedly disadvantage investors, it?s better to stay out than risk capital in an unpredictable environment.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
13-Mar-2025 15:21     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior. Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation 1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%. If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return. Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives. 2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills. REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable. Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns. 3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up. Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills. 4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets. A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns. Conclusion If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:15) Posted:

That?s a rational stance. A stable and predictable regulatory environment is crucial for long-term investing. When a government frequently changes policies in ways that disadvantage investors?whether through sudden tax hikes, shifting property curbs, or inconsistent financial regulations?it creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to plan long-term investments. Key Risks of Investing in Unpredictable Markets 1. Regulatory Uncertainty Sudden rule changes can wipe out expected returns or force costly adjustments. Examples: Unexpected property cooling measures, capital controls, or tax increases. 2. Erosion of Investor Confidence If the goalposts keep shifting, long-term investors may exit the market. Capital flight often follows inconsistent policy-making. 3. Sector-Specific Targeting Governments may favor certain industries while penalizing others, creating market distortions. Example: Real estate curbs that heavily impact developers but benefit state-backed firms. 4. Lack of Clear Exit Strategy When rules change unpredictably, it?s harder to plan entry and exit points. Long-term value investing requires policy consistency. What This Means for Your Investing Strategy Avoid markets where policies are unstable and anti-investor. Stick to jurisdictions with a track record of fair, transparent rules (e.g., Singapore, Switzerland). Watch for signs of government intervention before committing capital. If a country?s policies repeatedly disadvantage investors, it?s better to stay out than risk capital in an unpredictable environment.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:01) Posted:

2008年 次 贷 危 机 对 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 的 影 响 及 CDL的 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008年 的 **次 贷 危 机 （ Subprime Crisis） **导 致 全 球 金 融 市 场 大 幅 动 荡 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 也 受 到 了 较 大 影 响 。 以 下 是 当 时 的 市 场 表 现 以 及 对 CDL的 影 响 分 析 ： 1. 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008-2009年 ： 市 场 急 剧 下 滑 受 次 贷 危 机 冲 击 ， 新 加 坡 经 济 在 2008年 底 至 2009年 陷 入 衰 退 ， 房 地 产 市 场 迅 速 降 温 。 住 宅 交 易 量 大 幅 减 少 ， 房 价 指 数 在 2009年 初 触 底 ， 比 2008年 高 点 下 跌 约 25%。 商 业 地 产 （ 办 公 楼 、 零 售 物 业 ） 受 企 业 缩 减 规 模 和 消 费 疲 软 影 响 ， 租 金 和 资 本 值 均 下 滑 。 CDL股 价 在 2008年 危 机 期 间 大 幅 回 调 ， 反 映 市 场 对 房 地 产 行 业 的 悲 观 预 期 。 2010-2013年 ： 市 场 复 苏 与 政 府 调 控 由 于 低 利 率 和 经 济 复 苏 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 在 2010年 快 速 反 弹 ， CDL的 业 务 和 股 价 也 随 之 回 升 。 政 府 出 台 **额 外 买 方 印 花 税 （ ABSD） **等 措 施 ， 试 图 遏 制 投 机 活 动 ， 防 止 房 价 过 热 。 CDL在 这 一 时 期 的 增 长 受 益 于 市 场 复 苏 ， 但 政 策 压 力 增 加 ， 影 响 长 期 增 长 空 间 。 2020年 后 ： 市 场 韧 性 与 全 球 不 确 定 性 近 几 年 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 展 现 出 较 强 的 韧 性 ， 即 使 在 疫 情 冲 击 下 仍 维 持 稳 定 。 CDL受 益 于 其 多 元 化 布 局 （ 酒 店 、 商 业 地 产 、 海 外 项 目 ） ， 但 也 面 临 利 率 上 升 、 全 球 经 济 放 缓 等 挑 战 。 2. 财 务 健 康 状 况 现 金 流 与 债 务 ： 2008年 危 机 期 间 ， 房 地 产 开 发 商 面 临 流 动 性 压 力 ， CDL的 债 务 水 平 和 现 金 流 管 理 至 关 重 要 。 相 比 杠 杆 率 较 高 的 开 发 商 ， CDL在 行 业 低 迷 期 依 然 保 持 稳 健 财 务 状 况 ， 避 免 了 因 债 务 问 题 陷 入 困 境 。 收 入 与 盈 利 能 力 ： 由 于 房 屋 销 售 放 缓 ， CDL的 收 入 在 2008-2009年 受 到 一 定 冲 击 。 但 由 于 其 物 业 投 资 和 酒 店 业 务 提 供 了 稳 定 的 租 金 收 入 ， CDL能 够 维 持 一 定 的 盈 利 水 平 。 3. 区 域 多 元 化 海 外 市 场 对 冲 风 险 ： CDL在 2008年 金 融 危 机 后 加 快 了 海 外 扩 张 ， 在 中 国 、 英 国 、 日 本 和 澳 洲 等 市 场 布 局 ， 以 减 少 对 新 加 坡 市 场 的 依 赖 。 例 如 ， 在 中 国 ， CDL投 资 了 多 个 住 宅 和 商 业 项 目 ， 帮 助 分 散 新 加 坡 市 场 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 酒 店 业 务 的 恢 复 ： 旗 下 Millennium & Copthorne Hotels（ 千 禧 国 敦 酒 店 集 团 ） 在 全 球 拥 有 多 个 酒 店 ， 在 市 场 复 苏 时 提 供 了 增 长 动 能 。 总 结 2008年 次 贷 危 机 表 明 ， 房 地 产 行 业 对 经 济 周 期 高 度 敏 感 。 CDL作 为 周 期 性 企 业 ， 在 危 机 期 间 受 到 冲 击 ， 但 其 稳 健 的 财 务 管 理 、 租 赁 物 业 的 稳 定 现 金 流 以 及 区 域 多 元 化 策 略 ， 使 其 在 行 业 低 迷 时 仍 能 保 持 生 存 能 力 ， 并 在 复 苏 期 迅 速 反 弹 。 因 此 ， 投 资 CDL需 要 密 切 关 注 ： 新 加 坡 政 府 的 房 地 产 调 控 政 策 （ 如 ABSD、 LTV限 制 ） 。 全 球 经 济 环 境 （ 利 率 、 通 胀 、 金 融 危 机 风 险 ） 。 公 司 财 务 状 况 （ 负 债 率 、 现 金 流 ） 。 区 域 市 场 表 现 （ 特 别 是 中 国 、 英 国 等 主 要 市 场 ） 。 在 房 地 产 市 场 低 迷 时 ， CDL的 股 价 可 能 会 被 低 估 ， 为 长 期 投 资 者 提 供 机 会 ， 但 同 时 需 考 虑 房 地 产 行 业 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 ChatGPT can ma
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me


chartistkaohz
Veteran
13-Mar-2025 15:15     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		That?s a rational stance. A stable and predictable regulatory environment is crucial for long-term investing. When a government frequently changes policies in ways that disadvantage investors?whether through sudden tax hikes, shifting property curbs, or inconsistent financial regulations?it creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to plan long-term investments. Key Risks of Investing in Unpredictable Markets 1. Regulatory Uncertainty Sudden rule changes can wipe out expected returns or force costly adjustments. Examples: Unexpected property cooling measures, capital controls, or tax increases. 2. Erosion of Investor Confidence If the goalposts keep shifting, long-term investors may exit the market. Capital flight often follows inconsistent policy-making. 3. Sector-Specific Targeting Governments may favor certain industries while penalizing others, creating market distortions. Example: Real estate curbs that heavily impact developers but benefit state-backed firms. 4. Lack of Clear Exit Strategy When rules change unpredictably, it?s harder to plan entry and exit points. Long-term value investing requires policy consistency. What This Means for Your Investing Strategy Avoid markets where policies are unstable and anti-investor. Stick to jurisdictions with a track record of fair, transparent rules (e.g., Singapore, Switzerland). Watch for signs of government intervention before committing capital. If a country?s policies repeatedly disadvantage investors, it?s better to stay out than risk capital in an unpredictable environment.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 15:01) Posted:

2008年 次 贷 危 机 对 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 的 影 响 及 CDL的 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008年 的 **次 贷 危 机 （ Subprime Crisis） **导 致 全 球 金 融 市 场 大 幅 动 荡 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 也 受 到 了 较 大 影 响 。 以 下 是 当 时 的 市 场 表 现 以 及 对 CDL的 影 响 分 析 ： 1. 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008-2009年 ： 市 场 急 剧 下 滑 受 次 贷 危 机 冲 击 ， 新 加 坡 经 济 在 2008年 底 至 2009年 陷 入 衰 退 ， 房 地 产 市 场 迅 速 降 温 。 住 宅 交 易 量 大 幅 减 少 ， 房 价 指 数 在 2009年 初 触 底 ， 比 2008年 高 点 下 跌 约 25%。 商 业 地 产 （ 办 公 楼 、 零 售 物 业 ） 受 企 业 缩 减 规 模 和 消 费 疲 软 影 响 ， 租 金 和 资 本 值 均 下 滑 。 CDL股 价 在 2008年 危 机 期 间 大 幅 回 调 ， 反 映 市 场 对 房 地 产 行 业 的 悲 观 预 期 。 2010-2013年 ： 市 场 复 苏 与 政 府 调 控 由 于 低 利 率 和 经 济 复 苏 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 在 2010年 快 速 反 弹 ， CDL的 业 务 和 股 价 也 随 之 回 升 。 政 府 出 台 **额 外 买 方 印 花 税 （ ABSD） **等 措 施 ， 试 图 遏 制 投 机 活 动 ， 防 止 房 价 过 热 。 CDL在 这 一 时 期 的 增 长 受 益 于 市 场 复 苏 ， 但 政 策 压 力 增 加 ， 影 响 长 期 增 长 空 间 。 2020年 后 ： 市 场 韧 性 与 全 球 不 确 定 性 近 几 年 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 展 现 出 较 强 的 韧 性 ， 即 使 在 疫 情 冲 击 下 仍 维 持 稳 定 。 CDL受 益 于 其 多 元 化 布 局 （ 酒 店 、 商 业 地 产 、 海 外 项 目 ） ， 但 也 面 临 利 率 上 升 、 全 球 经 济 放 缓 等 挑 战 。 2. 财 务 健 康 状 况 现 金 流 与 债 务 ： 2008年 危 机 期 间 ， 房 地 产 开 发 商 面 临 流 动 性 压 力 ， CDL的 债 务 水 平 和 现 金 流 管 理 至 关 重 要 。 相 比 杠 杆 率 较 高 的 开 发 商 ， CDL在 行 业 低 迷 期 依 然 保 持 稳 健 财 务 状 况 ， 避 免 了 因 债 务 问 题 陷 入 困 境 。 收 入 与 盈 利 能 力 ： 由 于 房 屋 销 售 放 缓 ， CDL的 收 入 在 2008-2009年 受 到 一 定 冲 击 。 但 由 于 其 物 业 投 资 和 酒 店 业 务 提 供 了 稳 定 的 租 金 收 入 ， CDL能 够 维 持 一 定 的 盈 利 水 平 。 3. 区 域 多 元 化 海 外 市 场 对 冲 风 险 ： CDL在 2008年 金 融 危 机 后 加 快 了 海 外 扩 张 ， 在 中 国 、 英 国 、 日 本 和 澳 洲 等 市 场 布 局 ， 以 减 少 对 新 加 坡 市 场 的 依 赖 。 例 如 ， 在 中 国 ， CDL投 资 了 多 个 住 宅 和 商 业 项 目 ， 帮 助 分 散 新 加 坡 市 场 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 酒 店 业 务 的 恢 复 ： 旗 下 Millennium & Copthorne Hotels（ 千 禧 国 敦 酒 店 集 团 ） 在 全 球 拥 有 多 个 酒 店 ， 在 市 场 复 苏 时 提 供 了 增 长 动 能 。 总 结 2008年 次 贷 危 机 表 明 ， 房 地 产 行 业 对 经 济 周 期 高 度 敏 感 。 CDL作 为 周 期 性 企 业 ， 在 危 机 期 间 受 到 冲 击 ， 但 其 稳 健 的 财 务 管 理 、 租 赁 物 业 的 稳 定 现 金 流 以 及 区 域 多 元 化 策 略 ， 使 其 在 行 业 低 迷 时 仍 能 保 持 生 存 能 力 ， 并 在 复 苏 期 迅 速 反 弹 。 因 此 ， 投 资 CDL需 要 密 切 关 注 ： 新 加 坡 政 府 的 房 地 产 调 控 政 策 （ 如 ABSD、 LTV限 制 ） 。 全 球 经 济 环 境 （ 利 率 、 通 胀 、 金 融 危 机 风 险 ） 。 公 司 财 务 状 况 （ 负 债 率 、 现 金 流 ） 。 区 域 市 场 表 现 （ 特 别 是 中 国 、 英 国 等 主 要 市 场 ） 。 在 房 地 产 市 场 低 迷 时 ， CDL的 股 价 可 能 会 被 低 估 ， 为 长 期 投 资 者 提 供 机 会 ， 但 同 时 需 考 虑 房 地 产 行 业 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 ChatGPT can mak

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 14:56) Posted:

Yes, history suggests that when the "invisible hands" (large institutional funds) sell off Singapore bank shares, the capital often rotates into oversold property stocks, just like what happened in 1998. --- Historical Pattern of Fund Flows: From Banks to Property Stocks 1️ ⃣ 1998 Asian Financial Crisis What Happened? Singapore banks were hit hard due to regional economic turmoil, and big funds sold off bank shares. As panic selling peaked, Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and Capitaland (formerly Pidemco/DBS Land) became deeply undervalued. When the economy stabilized, funds rotated into property developers at bargain prices. Lesson from 1998: After bank shares peaked in valuation, institutional funds shifted capital into deeply oversold property stocks, fueling their strong recovery. --- 2️ ⃣ 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis What Happened? Initially, banks outperformed property developers due to rising interest margins. But after a strong run, bank stocks became expensive, and funds rotated into developers and REITs as the property market rebounded. Lesson from 2008-2009: Singapore property stocks lagged in the early recovery phase but caught up strongly once the banking rally slowed. --- 3️ ⃣ Post-COVID 2020-2022 What Happened? Singapore banks rallied first as interest rates rose, boosting NIMs. Property stocks and REITs underperformed due to higher interest costs and weak office demand. However, as interest rate expectations shifted in late 2023-2024, some funds started bottom-fishing in property stocks. Lesson from Post-COVID: Property stocks and REITs usually recover later in the cycle, as funds rotate out of banks when their valuation peaks. --- What This Means for 2025? If Singapore bank stocks become fully valued, we could see capital rotate into oversold property developers like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand. Interest rate stabilization or cuts could provide the trigger for property stocks to outperform banks. Institutional funds often follow historical cycles, meaning a property sector rebound could be the next major move if bank shares face profit-taking. Conclusion Just like in 1998 and 2009, when Singapore bank stocks peak and institutional funds start selling, watch for money flowing into deeply undervalued property stocks. CDL, UOL, and CityDev could be the next beneficiaries of this rotation, making them attractive for long-term investors.


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
13-Mar-2025 15:01     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		2008年 次 贷 危 机 对 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 的 影 响 及 CDL的 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008年 的 **次 贷 危 机 （ Subprime Crisis） **导 致 全 球 金 融 市 场 大 幅 动 荡 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 也 受 到 了 较 大 影 响 。 以 下 是 当 时 的 市 场 表 现 以 及 对 CDL的 影 响 分 析 ： 1. 行 业 周 期 分 析 2008-2009年 ： 市 场 急 剧 下 滑 受 次 贷 危 机 冲 击 ， 新 加 坡 经 济 在 2008年 底 至 2009年 陷 入 衰 退 ， 房 地 产 市 场 迅 速 降 温 。 住 宅 交 易 量 大 幅 减 少 ， 房 价 指 数 在 2009年 初 触 底 ， 比 2008年 高 点 下 跌 约 25%。 商 业 地 产 （ 办 公 楼 、 零 售 物 业 ） 受 企 业 缩 减 规 模 和 消 费 疲 软 影 响 ， 租 金 和 资 本 值 均 下 滑 。 CDL股 价 在 2008年 危 机 期 间 大 幅 回 调 ， 反 映 市 场 对 房 地 产 行 业 的 悲 观 预 期 。 2010-2013年 ： 市 场 复 苏 与 政 府 调 控 由 于 低 利 率 和 经 济 复 苏 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 在 2010年 快 速 反 弹 ， CDL的 业 务 和 股 价 也 随 之 回 升 。 政 府 出 台 **额 外 买 方 印 花 税 （ ABSD） **等 措 施 ， 试 图 遏 制 投 机 活 动 ， 防 止 房 价 过 热 。 CDL在 这 一 时 期 的 增 长 受 益 于 市 场 复 苏 ， 但 政 策 压 力 增 加 ， 影 响 长 期 增 长 空 间 。 2020年 后 ： 市 场 韧 性 与 全 球 不 确 定 性 近 几 年 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 展 现 出 较 强 的 韧 性 ， 即 使 在 疫 情 冲 击 下 仍 维 持 稳 定 。 CDL受 益 于 其 多 元 化 布 局 （ 酒 店 、 商 业 地 产 、 海 外 项 目 ） ， 但 也 面 临 利 率 上 升 、 全 球 经 济 放 缓 等 挑 战 。 2. 财 务 健 康 状 况 现 金 流 与 债 务 ： 2008年 危 机 期 间 ， 房 地 产 开 发 商 面 临 流 动 性 压 力 ， CDL的 债 务 水 平 和 现 金 流 管 理 至 关 重 要 。 相 比 杠 杆 率 较 高 的 开 发 商 ， CDL在 行 业 低 迷 期 依 然 保 持 稳 健 财 务 状 况 ， 避 免 了 因 债 务 问 题 陷 入 困 境 。 收 入 与 盈 利 能 力 ： 由 于 房 屋 销 售 放 缓 ， CDL的 收 入 在 2008-2009年 受 到 一 定 冲 击 。 但 由 于 其 物 业 投 资 和 酒 店 业 务 提 供 了 稳 定 的 租 金 收 入 ， CDL能 够 维 持 一 定 的 盈 利 水 平 。 3. 区 域 多 元 化 海 外 市 场 对 冲 风 险 ： CDL在 2008年 金 融 危 机 后 加 快 了 海 外 扩 张 ， 在 中 国 、 英 国 、 日 本 和 澳 洲 等 市 场 布 局 ， 以 减 少 对 新 加 坡 市 场 的 依 赖 。 例 如 ， 在 中 国 ， CDL投 资 了 多 个 住 宅 和 商 业 项 目 ， 帮 助 分 散 新 加 坡 市 场 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 酒 店 业 务 的 恢 复 ： 旗 下 Millennium & Copthorne Hotels（ 千 禧 国 敦 酒 店 集 团 ） 在 全 球 拥 有 多 个 酒 店 ， 在 市 场 复 苏 时 提 供 了 增 长 动 能 。 总 结 2008年 次 贷 危 机 表 明 ， 房 地 产 行 业 对 经 济 周 期 高 度 敏 感 。 CDL作 为 周 期 性 企 业 ， 在 危 机 期 间 受 到 冲 击 ， 但 其 稳 健 的 财 务 管 理 、 租 赁 物 业 的 稳 定 现 金 流 以 及 区 域 多 元 化 策 略 ， 使 其 在 行 业 低 迷 时 仍 能 保 持 生 存 能 力 ， 并 在 复 苏 期 迅 速 反 弹 。 因 此 ， 投 资 CDL需 要 密 切 关 注 ： 新 加 坡 政 府 的 房 地 产 调 控 政 策 （ 如 ABSD、 LTV限 制 ） 。 全 球 经 济 环 境 （ 利 率 、 通 胀 、 金 融 危 机 风 险 ） 。 公 司 财 务 状 况 （ 负 债 率 、 现 金 流 ） 。 区 域 市 场 表 现 （ 特 别 是 中 国 、 英 国 等 主 要 市 场 ） 。 在 房 地 产 市 场 低 迷 时 ， CDL的 股 价 可 能 会 被 低 估 ， 为 长 期 投 资 者 提 供 机 会 ， 但 同 时 需 考 虑 房 地 产 行 业 的 周 期 性 风 险 。 ChatGPT can mak

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 14:56) Posted:

Yes, history suggests that when the "invisible hands" (large institutional funds) sell off Singapore bank shares, the capital often rotates into oversold property stocks, just like what happened in 1998. --- Historical Pattern of Fund Flows: From Banks to Property Stocks 1️ ⃣ 1998 Asian Financial Crisis What Happened? Singapore banks were hit hard due to regional economic turmoil, and big funds sold off bank shares. As panic selling peaked, Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and Capitaland (formerly Pidemco/DBS Land) became deeply undervalued. When the economy stabilized, funds rotated into property developers at bargain prices. Lesson from 1998: After bank shares peaked in valuation, institutional funds shifted capital into deeply oversold property stocks, fueling their strong recovery. --- 2️ ⃣ 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis What Happened? Initially, banks outperformed property developers due to rising interest margins. But after a strong run, bank stocks became expensive, and funds rotated into developers and REITs as the property market rebounded. Lesson from 2008-2009: Singapore property stocks lagged in the early recovery phase but caught up strongly once the banking rally slowed. --- 3️ ⃣ Post-COVID 2020-2022 What Happened? Singapore banks rallied first as interest rates rose, boosting NIMs. Property stocks and REITs underperformed due to higher interest costs and weak office demand. However, as interest rate expectations shifted in late 2023-2024, some funds started bottom-fishing in property stocks. Lesson from Post-COVID: Property stocks and REITs usually recover later in the cycle, as funds rotate out of banks when their valuation peaks. --- What This Means for 2025? If Singapore bank stocks become fully valued, we could see capital rotate into oversold property developers like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand. Interest rate stabilization or cuts could provide the trigger for property stocks to outperform banks. Institutional funds often follow historical cycles, meaning a property sector rebound could be the next major move if bank shares face profit-taking. Conclusion Just like in 1998 and 2009, when Singapore bank stocks peak and institutional funds start selling, watch for money flowing into deeply undervalued property stocks. CDL, UOL, and CityDev could be the next beneficiaries of this rotation, making them attractive for long-term investors.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 14:46) Posted:

以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL（ City Developments Limited， 新 加 坡 城 市 发 展 有 限 公 司 ） 在 历 史 上 被 认 为 是 有 效 的 投 资 策 略 ， 主 要 原 因 如 下 ： ### 1. **CDL的 净 资 产 价 值 （ NAV） 提 供 了 一 个 下 限 ** - CDL的 NAV（ 净 资 产 价 值 ） 是 公 司 资 产 减 去 负 债 后 的 净 值 ， 通 常 被 视 为 公 司 股 价 的 下 限 。 多 年 来 ， CDL的 NAV一 直 远 高 于 每 股 6美 元 ， 这 意 味 着 即 使 股 价 短 期 下 跌 ， 其 内 在 价 值 仍 然 较 高 。 - 当 股 价 低 于 NAV时 ， 投 资 者 可 以 以 低 于 公 司 实 际 资 产 价 值 的 价 格 买 入 股 票 ， 这 提 供 了 较 大 的 安 全 边 际 。 历 史 上 ， CDL的 股 价 在 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 往 往 会 被 市 场 认 为 是 被 低 估 的 ， 从 而 吸 引 长 期 投 资 者 入 场 。 ### 2. **房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ** - 房 地 产 市 场 具 有 周 期 性 ， 虽 然 短 期 内 会 受 到 经 济 波 动 的 影 响 ， 但 长 期 来 看 ， 房 地 产 资 产 通 常 会 随 着 经 济 增 长 和 城 市 化 进 程 而 升 值 。 CDL作 为 新 加 坡 领 先 的 房 地 产 开 发 商 ， 其 资 产 质 量 和 品 牌 价 值 在 长 期 内 具 有 增 值 潜 力 。 - 例 如 ， 在 1998年 亚 洲 金 融 危 机 期 间 ， CDL的 股 价 曾 跌 至 约 3美 元 至 4美 元 ， 但 随 着 市 场 复 苏 ， 股 价 迅 速 反 弹 。 类 似 的 情 况 也 出 现 在 2008年 全 球 金 融 危 机 和 2020年 新 冠 疫 情 引 发 的 市 场 低 迷 中 。 每 次 市 场 复 苏 后 ， CDL的 股 价 都 回 到 了 更 高 的 水 平 。 ### 3. **历 史 表 现 证 明 其 抗 风 险 能 力 ** - CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 即 使 在 市 场 极 度 低 迷 的 时 期 ， CDL的 股 价 也 从 未 长 期 低 于 6美 元 ， 且 每 次 都 能 随 着 经 济 复 苏 而 反 弹 。 这 表 明 CDL的 资 产 质 量 和 业 务 模 式 具 有 较 强 的 韧 性 。 - 这 种 历 史 表 现 增 强 了 投 资 者 对 CDL的 信 心 ， 尤 其 是 在 股 价 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 投 资 者 认 为 这 是 一 个 相 对 安 全 的 买 入 点 。 ### 4. **股 息 回 报 和 长 期 增 长 潜 力 ** - CDL作 为 一 家 稳 健 的 房 地 产 公 司 ， 通 常 会 向 股 东 支 付 股 息 。 即 使 在 股 价 低 迷 时 期 ， 股 息 回 报 也 为 投 资 者 提 供 了 一 定 的 现 金 流 支 持 。 - 长 期 来 看 ， CDL的 房 地 产 资 产 和 开 发 项 目 具 有 增 值 潜 力 ， 尤 其 是 在 新 加 坡 这 样 土 地 资 源 稀 缺 的 市 场 ， 房 地 产 的 长 期 价 值 增 长 趋 势 明 显 。 ### 总 结 ： 以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL在 历 史 上 是 有 效 的 ， 主 要 是 因 为 其 NAV提 供 了 安 全 边 际 ， 房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ， 且 CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 这 种 策 略 适 合 那 些 愿 意 长 期 持 有 并 等 待 市 场 复 苏 的 投 资 者 。
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
13-Mar-2025 14:56     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		Yes, history suggests that when the "invisible hands" (large institutional funds) sell off Singapore bank shares, the capital often rotates into oversold property stocks, just like what happened in 1998. --- Historical Pattern of Fund Flows: From Banks to Property Stocks 1️ ⃣ 1998 Asian Financial Crisis What Happened? Singapore banks were hit hard due to regional economic turmoil, and big funds sold off bank shares. As panic selling peaked, Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and Capitaland (formerly Pidemco/DBS Land) became deeply undervalued. When the economy stabilized, funds rotated into property developers at bargain prices. Lesson from 1998: After bank shares peaked in valuation, institutional funds shifted capital into deeply oversold property stocks, fueling their strong recovery. --- 2️ ⃣ 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis What Happened? Initially, banks outperformed property developers due to rising interest margins. But after a strong run, bank stocks became expensive, and funds rotated into developers and REITs as the property market rebounded. Lesson from 2008-2009: Singapore property stocks lagged in the early recovery phase but caught up strongly once the banking rally slowed. --- 3️ ⃣ Post-COVID 2020-2022 What Happened? Singapore banks rallied first as interest rates rose, boosting NIMs. Property stocks and REITs underperformed due to higher interest costs and weak office demand. However, as interest rate expectations shifted in late 2023-2024, some funds started bottom-fishing in property stocks. Lesson from Post-COVID: Property stocks and REITs usually recover later in the cycle, as funds rotate out of banks when their valuation peaks. --- What This Means for 2025? If Singapore bank stocks become fully valued, we could see capital rotate into oversold property developers like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand. Interest rate stabilization or cuts could provide the trigger for property stocks to outperform banks. Institutional funds often follow historical cycles, meaning a property sector rebound could be the next major move if bank shares face profit-taking. Conclusion Just like in 1998 and 2009, when Singapore bank stocks peak and institutional funds start selling, watch for money flowing into deeply undervalued property stocks. CDL, UOL, and CityDev could be the next beneficiaries of this rotation, making them attractive for long-term investors.

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 13-Mar-2025 14:46) Posted:

以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL（ City Developments Limited， 新 加 坡 城 市 发 展 有 限 公 司 ） 在 历 史 上 被 认 为 是 有 效 的 投 资 策 略 ， 主 要 原 因 如 下 ： ### 1. **CDL的 净 资 产 价 值 （ NAV） 提 供 了 一 个 下 限 ** - CDL的 NAV（ 净 资 产 价 值 ） 是 公 司 资 产 减 去 负 债 后 的 净 值 ， 通 常 被 视 为 公 司 股 价 的 下 限 。 多 年 来 ， CDL的 NAV一 直 远 高 于 每 股 6美 元 ， 这 意 味 着 即 使 股 价 短 期 下 跌 ， 其 内 在 价 值 仍 然 较 高 。 - 当 股 价 低 于 NAV时 ， 投 资 者 可 以 以 低 于 公 司 实 际 资 产 价 值 的 价 格 买 入 股 票 ， 这 提 供 了 较 大 的 安 全 边 际 。 历 史 上 ， CDL的 股 价 在 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 往 往 会 被 市 场 认 为 是 被 低 估 的 ， 从 而 吸 引 长 期 投 资 者 入 场 。 ### 2. **房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ** - 房 地 产 市 场 具 有 周 期 性 ， 虽 然 短 期 内 会 受 到 经 济 波 动 的 影 响 ， 但 长 期 来 看 ， 房 地 产 资 产 通 常 会 随 着 经 济 增 长 和 城 市 化 进 程 而 升 值 。 CDL作 为 新 加 坡 领 先 的 房 地 产 开 发 商 ， 其 资 产 质 量 和 品 牌 价 值 在 长 期 内 具 有 增 值 潜 力 。 - 例 如 ， 在 1998年 亚 洲 金 融 危 机 期 间 ， CDL的 股 价 曾 跌 至 约 3美 元 至 4美 元 ， 但 随 着 市 场 复 苏 ， 股 价 迅 速 反 弹 。 类 似 的 情 况 也 出 现 在 2008年 全 球 金 融 危 机 和 2020年 新 冠 疫 情 引 发 的 市 场 低 迷 中 。 每 次 市 场 复 苏 后 ， CDL的 股 价 都 回 到 了 更 高 的 水 平 。 ### 3. **历 史 表 现 证 明 其 抗 风 险 能 力 ** - CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 即 使 在 市 场 极 度 低 迷 的 时 期 ， CDL的 股 价 也 从 未 长 期 低 于 6美 元 ， 且 每 次 都 能 随 着 经 济 复 苏 而 反 弹 。 这 表 明 CDL的 资 产 质 量 和 业 务 模 式 具 有 较 强 的 韧 性 。 - 这 种 历 史 表 现 增 强 了 投 资 者 对 CDL的 信 心 ， 尤 其 是 在 股 价 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 投 资 者 认 为 这 是 一 个 相 对 安 全 的 买 入 点 。 ### 4. **股 息 回 报 和 长 期 增 长 潜 力 ** - CDL作 为 一 家 稳 健 的 房 地 产 公 司 ， 通 常 会 向 股 东 支 付 股 息 。 即 使 在 股 价 低 迷 时 期 ， 股 息 回 报 也 为 投 资 者 提 供 了 一 定 的 现 金 流 支 持 。 - 长 期 来 看 ， CDL的 房 地 产 资 产 和 开 发 项 目 具 有 增 值 潜 力 ， 尤 其 是 在 新 加 坡 这 样 土 地 资 源 稀 缺 的 市 场 ， 房 地 产 的 长 期 价 值 增 长 趋 势 明 显 。 ### 总 结 ： 以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL在 历 史 上 是 有 效 的 ， 主 要 是 因 为 其 NAV提 供 了 安 全 边 际 ， 房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ， 且 CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 这 种 策 略 适 合 那 些 愿 意 长 期 持 有 并 等 待 市 场 复 苏 的 投 资 者 。

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 11:47) Posted:

That?s an interesting angle?Indian real estate giants like Tata Realty and Adani Realty could indeed see CDL?s assets as attractive buys due to: 1. SGD Strength vs. INR Weakness With INR hitting an all-time low against SGD (SGD/INR at 65.481), Indian firms may prefer to park wealth in stable SGD assets rather than keep funds in a depreciating rupee. Singapore?s real estate market offers a safe-haven compared to India?s volatile currency and economic uncertainties. 2. CDL?s Valuation Discount CDL?s shares and assets have seen pressure due to governance concerns and past missteps (e.g., Sincere Property in China). Tata Realty or Adani Realty could see this as an opportunity to acquire undervalued assets in Singapore or joint venture with CDL. 3. Indian Expansion into Global Real Estate Adani and Tata have been expanding internationally, and Singapore?s property market offers long-term appreciation potential. Tata Realty has been increasing its presence in commercial real estate, while Adani has aggressively expanded its infrastructure and real estate footprint?a move into Singapore assets wouldn?t be surprising. 4. CDL?s Need for Capital Recycling CDL has been divesting non-core assets and focusing on its Singapore and UK portfolio. If Indian giants step in, CDL may sell some assets to raise funds for new developments or share buybacks, boosting shareholder value. Potential Play for Investors If Tata or Adani moves in, it could trigger a re-rating of CDL?s assets and push up its stock price. Investors anticipating this could buy into CDL at current levels, betting on an asset sale or strategic investment. Would you see CDL as a buy now in anticipation of such a deal, or do you think confirmation from Tata or Adani is needed first?


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
13-Mar-2025 14:46     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL（ City Developments Limited， 新 加 坡 城 市 发 展 有 限 公 司 ） 在 历 史 上 被 认 为 是 有 效 的 投 资 策 略 ， 主 要 原 因 如 下 ： ### 1. **CDL的 净 资 产 价 值 （ NAV） 提 供 了 一 个 下 限 ** - CDL的 NAV（ 净 资 产 价 值 ） 是 公 司 资 产 减 去 负 债 后 的 净 值 ， 通 常 被 视 为 公 司 股 价 的 下 限 。 多 年 来 ， CDL的 NAV一 直 远 高 于 每 股 6美 元 ， 这 意 味 着 即 使 股 价 短 期 下 跌 ， 其 内 在 价 值 仍 然 较 高 。 - 当 股 价 低 于 NAV时 ， 投 资 者 可 以 以 低 于 公 司 实 际 资 产 价 值 的 价 格 买 入 股 票 ， 这 提 供 了 较 大 的 安 全 边 际 。 历 史 上 ， CDL的 股 价 在 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 往 往 会 被 市 场 认 为 是 被 低 估 的 ， 从 而 吸 引 长 期 投 资 者 入 场 。 ### 2. **房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ** - 房 地 产 市 场 具 有 周 期 性 ， 虽 然 短 期 内 会 受 到 经 济 波 动 的 影 响 ， 但 长 期 来 看 ， 房 地 产 资 产 通 常 会 随 着 经 济 增 长 和 城 市 化 进 程 而 升 值 。 CDL作 为 新 加 坡 领 先 的 房 地 产 开 发 商 ， 其 资 产 质 量 和 品 牌 价 值 在 长 期 内 具 有 增 值 潜 力 。 - 例 如 ， 在 1998年 亚 洲 金 融 危 机 期 间 ， CDL的 股 价 曾 跌 至 约 3美 元 至 4美 元 ， 但 随 着 市 场 复 苏 ， 股 价 迅 速 反 弹 。 类 似 的 情 况 也 出 现 在 2008年 全 球 金 融 危 机 和 2020年 新 冠 疫 情 引 发 的 市 场 低 迷 中 。 每 次 市 场 复 苏 后 ， CDL的 股 价 都 回 到 了 更 高 的 水 平 。 ### 3. **历 史 表 现 证 明 其 抗 风 险 能 力 ** - CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 即 使 在 市 场 极 度 低 迷 的 时 期 ， CDL的 股 价 也 从 未 长 期 低 于 6美 元 ， 且 每 次 都 能 随 着 经 济 复 苏 而 反 弹 。 这 表 明 CDL的 资 产 质 量 和 业 务 模 式 具 有 较 强 的 韧 性 。 - 这 种 历 史 表 现 增 强 了 投 资 者 对 CDL的 信 心 ， 尤 其 是 在 股 价 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 投 资 者 认 为 这 是 一 个 相 对 安 全 的 买 入 点 。 ### 4. **股 息 回 报 和 长 期 增 长 潜 力 ** - CDL作 为 一 家 稳 健 的 房 地 产 公 司 ， 通 常 会 向 股 东 支 付 股 息 。 即 使 在 股 价 低 迷 时 期 ， 股 息 回 报 也 为 投 资 者 提 供 了 一 定 的 现 金 流 支 持 。 - 长 期 来 看 ， CDL的 房 地 产 资 产 和 开 发 项 目 具 有 增 值 潜 力 ， 尤 其 是 在 新 加 坡 这 样 土 地 资 源 稀 缺 的 市 场 ， 房 地 产 的 长 期 价 值 增 长 趋 势 明 显 。 ### 总 结 ： 以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL在 历 史 上 是 有 效 的 ， 主 要 是 因 为 其 NAV提 供 了 安 全 边 际 ， 房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ， 且 CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 这 种 策 略 适 合 那 些 愿 意 长 期 持 有 并 等 待 市 场 复 苏 的 投 资 者 。

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 11:47) Posted:

That?s an interesting angle?Indian real estate giants like Tata Realty and Adani Realty could indeed see CDL?s assets as attractive buys due to: 1. SGD Strength vs. INR Weakness With INR hitting an all-time low against SGD (SGD/INR at 65.481), Indian firms may prefer to park wealth in stable SGD assets rather than keep funds in a depreciating rupee. Singapore?s real estate market offers a safe-haven compared to India?s volatile currency and economic uncertainties. 2. CDL?s Valuation Discount CDL?s shares and assets have seen pressure due to governance concerns and past missteps (e.g., Sincere Property in China). Tata Realty or Adani Realty could see this as an opportunity to acquire undervalued assets in Singapore or joint venture with CDL. 3. Indian Expansion into Global Real Estate Adani and Tata have been expanding internationally, and Singapore?s property market offers long-term appreciation potential. Tata Realty has been increasing its presence in commercial real estate, while Adani has aggressively expanded its infrastructure and real estate footprint?a move into Singapore assets wouldn?t be surprising. 4. CDL?s Need for Capital Recycling CDL has been divesting non-core assets and focusing on its Singapore and UK portfolio. If Indian giants step in, CDL may sell some assets to raise funds for new developments or share buybacks, boosting shareholder value. Potential Play for Investors If Tata or Adani moves in, it could trigger a re-rating of CDL?s assets and push up its stock price. Investors anticipating this could buy into CDL at current levels, betting on an asset sale or strategic investment. Would you see CDL as a buy now in anticipation of such a deal, or do you think confirmation from Tata or Adani is needed first?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 11:40) Posted:

That?s a sharp observation?if wealthy Chinese tycoons anticipate a prolonged USD decline, they might see CDL shares as a strategic hedge through SGD-denominated assets. Here?s why: 1. SGD as a Safe Haven vs. USD Weakness The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages SGD with a gradual appreciation bias, making it a strong hedge against USD depreciation. Buying CDL shares allows investors to hold assets in SGD while benefiting from Singapore?s resilient property market. 2. CDL?s Property Assets as a Hard Asset Play CDL owns prime Singapore real estate, a sought-after asset class for Chinese investors seeking stability. With Singapore?s property market still attractive, Chinese tycoons may see value in CDL?s real estate holdings rather than directly holding SGD cash. 3. Valuation & Strategic Buy-in Opportunity CDL?s shares have been under pressure from governance concerns and China?s property crisis spillover fears. A large sell-down in CDL shares could present a rare discounted entry point for deep-pocketed Chinese investors to buy a blue-chip Singapore developer at a bargain. 4. Diversification Away from China Given the uncertainty in China?s property sector, wealthy Chinese investors are actively diversifying offshore. CDL?s Singapore real estate exposure provides a safe, long-term store of wealth compared to holding assets in China or struggling Hong Kong properties. Would you consider CDL a buy if a major Chinese investor starts accumulating shares, signaling confidence in its long-term value? Or do you think broader governance reforms are needed first?


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me


chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 11:47     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		That?s an interesting angle?Indian real estate giants like Tata Realty and Adani Realty could indeed see CDL?s assets as attractive buys due to: 1. SGD Strength vs. INR Weakness With INR hitting an all-time low against SGD (SGD/INR at 65.481), Indian firms may prefer to park wealth in stable SGD assets rather than keep funds in a depreciating rupee. Singapore?s real estate market offers a safe-haven compared to India?s volatile currency and economic uncertainties. 2. CDL?s Valuation Discount CDL?s shares and assets have seen pressure due to governance concerns and past missteps (e.g., Sincere Property in China). Tata Realty or Adani Realty could see this as an opportunity to acquire undervalued assets in Singapore or joint venture with CDL. 3. Indian Expansion into Global Real Estate Adani and Tata have been expanding internationally, and Singapore?s property market offers long-term appreciation potential. Tata Realty has been increasing its presence in commercial real estate, while Adani has aggressively expanded its infrastructure and real estate footprint?a move into Singapore assets wouldn?t be surprising. 4. CDL?s Need for Capital Recycling CDL has been divesting non-core assets and focusing on its Singapore and UK portfolio. If Indian giants step in, CDL may sell some assets to raise funds for new developments or share buybacks, boosting shareholder value. Potential Play for Investors If Tata or Adani moves in, it could trigger a re-rating of CDL?s assets and push up its stock price. Investors anticipating this could buy into CDL at current levels, betting on an asset sale or strategic investment. Would you see CDL as a buy now in anticipation of such a deal, or do you think confirmation from Tata or Adani is needed first?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 11:40) Posted:

That?s a sharp observation?if wealthy Chinese tycoons anticipate a prolonged USD decline, they might see CDL shares as a strategic hedge through SGD-denominated assets. Here?s why: 1. SGD as a Safe Haven vs. USD Weakness The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages SGD with a gradual appreciation bias, making it a strong hedge against USD depreciation. Buying CDL shares allows investors to hold assets in SGD while benefiting from Singapore?s resilient property market. 2. CDL?s Property Assets as a Hard Asset Play CDL owns prime Singapore real estate, a sought-after asset class for Chinese investors seeking stability. With Singapore?s property market still attractive, Chinese tycoons may see value in CDL?s real estate holdings rather than directly holding SGD cash. 3. Valuation & Strategic Buy-in Opportunity CDL?s shares have been under pressure from governance concerns and China?s property crisis spillover fears. A large sell-down in CDL shares could present a rare discounted entry point for deep-pocketed Chinese investors to buy a blue-chip Singapore developer at a bargain. 4. Diversification Away from China Given the uncertainty in China?s property sector, wealthy Chinese investors are actively diversifying offshore. CDL?s Singapore real estate exposure provides a safe, long-term store of wealth compared to holding assets in China or struggling Hong Kong properties. Would you consider CDL a buy if a major Chinese investor starts accumulating shares, signaling confidence in its long-term value? Or do you think broader governance reforms are needed first?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 10:46) Posted:

If there is a leadership rift between Kwek Leng Beng (father, executive chairman of Hong Leong Group and CDL) and Kwek Leng Peck (son, former CDL board member), resolving it quickly is key to restoring investor confidence in City Developments Limited (CDL) and other related companies. 1. Private Reconciliation & Unified Public Messaging The Kwek family should privately resolve differences to prevent further negative media coverage. A joint statement reaffirming their commitment to CDL?s future would reassure investors. 2. Strengthen Leadership Stability Appointing a professional, independent CEO to manage CDL and reduce family-driven board tensions. Establishing a clear succession plan within the family to ease long-term investor concerns. 3. Launch a Share Buyback Program A large-scale buyback would signal confidence in CDL?s undervalued stock. This would also counter any perception of instability caused by internal disputes. 4. Improve Corporate Governance Enhancing transparency by increasing the proportion of independent directors on the board. Addressing any lingering concerns from past controversial deals (e.g., Sincere Property in China). 5. Refocus on Core Business & Divest Non-Core Assets Investors want to see a strong focus on Singapore?s property market rather than risky overseas ventures. Selling underperforming assets and reinvesting in high-yield developments could boost earnings and dividends. Would you consider CDL a buy if they resolve governance issues and launch a buyback, or do you think the market still needs more assurance?


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 11:40     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		That?s a sharp observation?if wealthy Chinese tycoons anticipate a prolonged USD decline, they might see CDL shares as a strategic hedge through SGD-denominated assets. Here?s why: 1. SGD as a Safe Haven vs. USD Weakness The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages SGD with a gradual appreciation bias, making it a strong hedge against USD depreciation. Buying CDL shares allows investors to hold assets in SGD while benefiting from Singapore?s resilient property market. 2. CDL?s Property Assets as a Hard Asset Play CDL owns prime Singapore real estate, a sought-after asset class for Chinese investors seeking stability. With Singapore?s property market still attractive, Chinese tycoons may see value in CDL?s real estate holdings rather than directly holding SGD cash. 3. Valuation & Strategic Buy-in Opportunity CDL?s shares have been under pressure from governance concerns and China?s property crisis spillover fears. A large sell-down in CDL shares could present a rare discounted entry point for deep-pocketed Chinese investors to buy a blue-chip Singapore developer at a bargain. 4. Diversification Away from China Given the uncertainty in China?s property sector, wealthy Chinese investors are actively diversifying offshore. CDL?s Singapore real estate exposure provides a safe, long-term store of wealth compared to holding assets in China or struggling Hong Kong properties. Would you consider CDL a buy if a major Chinese investor starts accumulating shares, signaling confidence in its long-term value? Or do you think broader governance reforms are needed first?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 10:46) Posted:

If there is a leadership rift between Kwek Leng Beng (father, executive chairman of Hong Leong Group and CDL) and Kwek Leng Peck (son, former CDL board member), resolving it quickly is key to restoring investor confidence in City Developments Limited (CDL) and other related companies. 1. Private Reconciliation & Unified Public Messaging The Kwek family should privately resolve differences to prevent further negative media coverage. A joint statement reaffirming their commitment to CDL?s future would reassure investors. 2. Strengthen Leadership Stability Appointing a professional, independent CEO to manage CDL and reduce family-driven board tensions. Establishing a clear succession plan within the family to ease long-term investor concerns. 3. Launch a Share Buyback Program A large-scale buyback would signal confidence in CDL?s undervalued stock. This would also counter any perception of instability caused by internal disputes. 4. Improve Corporate Governance Enhancing transparency by increasing the proportion of independent directors on the board. Addressing any lingering concerns from past controversial deals (e.g., Sincere Property in China). 5. Refocus on Core Business & Divest Non-Core Assets Investors want to see a strong focus on Singapore?s property market rather than risky overseas ventures. Selling underperforming assets and reinvesting in high-yield developments could boost earnings and dividends. Would you consider CDL a buy if they resolve governance issues and launch a buyback, or do you think the market still needs more assurance?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 09:32) Posted:

Dairy Farm International (DFI) remains undervalued despite its earnings recovery and stronger dividend payouts for several reasons:

1. Weak Investor Confidence Post-Turnaround

While earnings have improved, investors may still be skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery, given past struggles in restructuring and competition.

Many investors still remember DFI?s prolonged decline before the turnaround and may be hesitant to re-enter until they see consistent earnings growth.


2. Structural Headwinds in Retail Sector

DFI operates in highly competitive markets (Hong Kong, China, and Southeast Asia), where consumer spending remains uneven post-COVID.

Its supermarket and convenience store businesses face pricing pressures from e-commerce and discounters.


3. Jardine Group Discount

DFI is part of the Jardine Group, and conglomerates under Jardine often trade at a discount due to concerns over capital allocation and corporate governance.

Investors may prefer pure-play consumer retail stocks rather than a conglomerate-linked entity.


4. Limited Institutional Interest

Unlike tech or high-growth consumer companies, DFI may not be attracting significant institutional fund flows.

The stock?s illiquidity and low-profile status might be keeping valuations depressed.


5. Hong Kong & China Exposure Risks

Given DFI?s exposure to Hong Kong and China, macroeconomic uncertainties and weak retail sentiment in these regions could be weighing on its valuation.

Investors may be waiting for a stronger, sustained economic recovery in China before re-rating the stock.


Would you consider accumulating more if its dividend yield stays attractive, or are you looking for a clearer catalyst before adding?



 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 10:46     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		If there is a leadership rift between Kwek Leng Beng (father, executive chairman of Hong Leong Group and CDL) and Kwek Leng Peck (son, former CDL board member), resolving it quickly is key to restoring investor confidence in City Developments Limited (CDL) and other related companies. 1. Private Reconciliation & Unified Public Messaging The Kwek family should privately resolve differences to prevent further negative media coverage. A joint statement reaffirming their commitment to CDL?s future would reassure investors. 2. Strengthen Leadership Stability Appointing a professional, independent CEO to manage CDL and reduce family-driven board tensions. Establishing a clear succession plan within the family to ease long-term investor concerns. 3. Launch a Share Buyback Program A large-scale buyback would signal confidence in CDL?s undervalued stock. This would also counter any perception of instability caused by internal disputes. 4. Improve Corporate Governance Enhancing transparency by increasing the proportion of independent directors on the board. Addressing any lingering concerns from past controversial deals (e.g., Sincere Property in China). 5. Refocus on Core Business & Divest Non-Core Assets Investors want to see a strong focus on Singapore?s property market rather than risky overseas ventures. Selling underperforming assets and reinvesting in high-yield developments could boost earnings and dividends. Would you consider CDL a buy if they resolve governance issues and launch a buyback, or do you think the market still needs more assurance?

chartistkaohz      ( Date: 12-Mar-2025 09:32) Posted:

Dairy Farm International (DFI) remains undervalued despite its earnings recovery and stronger dividend payouts for several reasons:

1. Weak Investor Confidence Post-Turnaround

While earnings have improved, investors may still be skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery, given past struggles in restructuring and competition.

Many investors still remember DFI?s prolonged decline before the turnaround and may be hesitant to re-enter until they see consistent earnings growth.


2. Structural Headwinds in Retail Sector

DFI operates in highly competitive markets (Hong Kong, China, and Southeast Asia), where consumer spending remains uneven post-COVID.

Its supermarket and convenience store businesses face pricing pressures from e-commerce and discounters.


3. Jardine Group Discount

DFI is part of the Jardine Group, and conglomerates under Jardine often trade at a discount due to concerns over capital allocation and corporate governance.

Investors may prefer pure-play consumer retail stocks rather than a conglomerate-linked entity.


4. Limited Institutional Interest

Unlike tech or high-growth consumer companies, DFI may not be attracting significant institutional fund flows.

The stock?s illiquidity and low-profile status might be keeping valuations depressed.


5. Hong Kong & China Exposure Risks

Given DFI?s exposure to Hong Kong and China, macroeconomic uncertainties and weak retail sentiment in these regions could be weighing on its valuation.

Investors may be waiting for a stronger, sustained economic recovery in China before re-rating the stock.


Would you consider accumulating more if its dividend yield stays attractive, or are you looking for a clearer catalyst before adding?


 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 09:32     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		Dairy Farm International (DFI) remains undervalued despite its earnings recovery and stronger dividend payouts for several reasons:

1. Weak Investor Confidence Post-Turnaround

While earnings have improved, investors may still be skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery, given past struggles in restructuring and competition.

Many investors still remember DFI?s prolonged decline before the turnaround and may be hesitant to re-enter until they see consistent earnings growth.


2. Structural Headwinds in Retail Sector

DFI operates in highly competitive markets (Hong Kong, China, and Southeast Asia), where consumer spending remains uneven post-COVID.

Its supermarket and convenience store businesses face pricing pressures from e-commerce and discounters.


3. Jardine Group Discount

DFI is part of the Jardine Group, and conglomerates under Jardine often trade at a discount due to concerns over capital allocation and corporate governance.

Investors may prefer pure-play consumer retail stocks rather than a conglomerate-linked entity.


4. Limited Institutional Interest

Unlike tech or high-growth consumer companies, DFI may not be attracting significant institutional fund flows.

The stock?s illiquidity and low-profile status might be keeping valuations depressed.


5. Hong Kong & China Exposure Risks

Given DFI?s exposure to Hong Kong and China, macroeconomic uncertainties and weak retail sentiment in these regions could be weighing on its valuation.

Investors may be waiting for a stronger, sustained economic recovery in China before re-rating the stock.


Would you consider accumulating more if its dividend yield stays attractive, or are you looking for a clearer catalyst before adding?

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 08:41     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		That?s a sharp observation?just as self-reinforcing momentum fueled the post-COVID rally, the same reflexivity principle (which you?ve noted before in Soros' theory) could now be working in reverse.

Tech Tycoons Selling: Insider selling signals caution. If major executives believe valuations are stretched, it can dampen investor sentiment.

Trump 2.0 Tariffs: If these escalate into a full trade war, global supply chains and corporate earnings could take a hit, leading to further risk-off sentiment.

Market Inertia & Momentum: Just as FOMO drove stocks up, panic and de-risking can accelerate a downturn, with forced selling adding pressure.


If this downturn deepens, will you shift more capital into Singapore banks, or are you considering additional hedges against a prolonged correction?

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
12-Mar-2025 08:23     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		If Trump's tariffs lead to a prolonged downturn, having enough cash on hand is crucial for both protection and opportunity. Here?s how you can be careful with your cash allocation:

1. Maintain Liquidity ? Keep a strong liquidity buffer in cash management funds or short-term fixed-income instruments to handle unexpected market turbulence.


2. Diversify Holdings ? Stick to cash-rich, undervalued banks like OCBC and UOB, which can weather downturns better than overvalued or speculative assets.


3. Be Selective with Investments ? If markets continue falling, look for buying opportunities in quality stocks at depressed prices, but avoid rushing in too early.


4. Hedge Against Uncertainty ? Consider safe alternatives like Singapore T-bills or defensive sectors in case economic conditions worsen further.


5. Monitor Rate Trends ? If global uncertainties persist and interest rates fall, Singapore banks may benefit from their deposit franchises, making them relatively attractive.



Would you consider adding more to OCBC or UOB if the downturn intensifies?

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
11-Mar-2025 16:02     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		If Benjamin Graham were alive in 2025 during Trump's second-term tariffs, he would likely apply his value investing principles to SGX-listed shares. His strategy would focus on buying undervalued, financially strong companies that could withstand tariff-induced volatility.

How Graham Would Invest in SGX During Trump?s 2025 Tariffs:

1. Look for Undervalued Stocks with a Margin of Safety

Graham would screen for Singapore blue chips trading at low price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios.

Given market turmoil from tariffs, he would focus on cash-rich, low-debt stocks, such as OCBC, UOB, and DBS, if they trade below their intrinsic value.


2. Focus on Financial Strength & Stability

He would prioritize stocks with strong balance sheets, high cash reserves, and consistent earnings to weather economic uncertainty.

OCBC and UOB, with their conservative lending practices and strong capital buffers, might fit his defensive value investing approach.


3. Avoid Overvalued or Speculative Stocks

Graham would reject overpriced growth stocks (e.g., tech stocks with high P/E ratios) vulnerable to tariff-related supply chain disruptions.

He would avoid companies heavily dependent on exports to the U.S. and those with weak earnings history.


4. Favor Dividend-Paying Blue Chips for Stability

Given the uncertainty caused by tariffs, he would favor high-dividend yield stocks as a defensive play.

SGX banks (OCBC, UOB, DBS) and REITs would appeal to him for their stable cash flows and income generation.


5. Look for Deep Value in Unpopular Sectors

Graham's philosophy emphasized buying out-of-favor stocks with strong fundamentals.

Singapore industrial stocks affected by U.S. tariffs (e.g., Wilmar, ST Engineering) could become opportunities if their prices fell significantly below intrinsic value.


6. Apply the Defensive vs. Enterprising Investor Strategy

Defensive Investors: Would buy an SGX index ETF (like the STI ETF) to ensure diversification and limit risks.

Enterprising Investors: Would select individual stocks with deep value potential, focusing on Singapore banks, undervalued REITs, and industrial stocks with low P/B ratios.


Conclusion: Graham Would Likely Favor SGX Banks & Defensive Stocks

Most likely buys: OCBC, UOB, DBS, STI ETF, undervalued REITs.

Avoids: Overvalued growth stocks, speculative companies, and export-dependent firms hit hard by tariffs.

Strategy: Buy deeply undervalued, financially strong companies with a margin of safety and hold for the long term.


Would you like a specific valuation check on any SGX stocks using Graham?s principles?

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz
Veteran
11-Mar-2025 15:52     
 
chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!  
  x 0
  x 0

 Alert Admin 		You do not invest in li Ka shing companies he is all out to skin you
Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings sold its ports business, including assets along the Panama Canal, to a consortium led by BlackRock for several strategic reasons:

1. Geopolitical Pressure: The U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, expressed concerns over Chinese influence in strategic global infrastructures like the Panama Canal. To mitigate potential political and economic repercussions, CK Hutchison opted to divest these assets.


2. Financial Gains: The sale, valued at approximately $22.8 billion, provided CK Hutchison with substantial cash proceeds, enhancing its liquidity and financial flexibility. Following the announcement, the company's shares surged over 20%, reflecting positive investor sentiment.


3. Strategic Refocus: By divesting its global ports operations, CK Hutchison can concentrate on its core businesses and explore new investment opportunities, aligning with its long-term strategic objectives.



This decision underscores the complex interplay between global business operations and geopolitical dynamics, prompting corporations to adapt their strategies accordingly.

 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
                                                         First   < Newer   21-40 of 2943   Older>   Last  



ShareJunction Version: 27 Nov 2020 ver- All Rights Reserved. Copyright ShareJunction Pte. Ltd. Disclaimer: All prices from are delayed. ShareJunction does not provide you with any financial advice. We are not into the business of providing any investment advice. See our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy of using this website. Data is delayed for varying periods of time depending on the exchange, but for at least 15 minutes. Copyright © SIX Financial Information Ltd. and its licensors. All Rights reserved. Further distribution and use by third parties prohibited. SIX Financial Information and its licensors make no warranty for information displayed and accept no liability for data and prices. SIX Financial Information reserves the right to adapt and/or alter this website at any time without prior notice.

Web design by FoundationFlux. Hosted with Signetique Cloud.