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SAVIORFOREVER Supreme	29-Sep-2023 17:57        SAVIORFOREVER About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Next year. Trade with expectation and DYODD ss2017.      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 17:18) Posted: I hope you can smell the sweet nAir one day. Have nice weekends ahead. SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 17:06) Posted: Added some during pre-closing. Next year collect more dividends. Trade with awareness and DYODD
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SAVIORFOREVER Supreme	29-Sep-2023 17:27        SAVIORFOREVER About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Surprised still have ppl letting go of this potential counter at the last minute. Trade with caution and DYODD ss2017.      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 17:18) Posted: I hope you can smell the sweet nAir one day. Have nice weekends ahead. SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 17:06) Posted: Added some during pre-closing. Next year collect more dividends. Trade with awareness and DYODD
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ss2017. Supreme	29-Sep-2023 17:18        ss2017. About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I hope you can smell the sweet nAir one day. Have nice weekends ahead. SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 17:06) Posted: Added some during pre-closing. Next year collect more dividends. Trade with awareness and DYODD
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SAVIORFOREVER Supreme	29-Sep-2023 17:06        SAVIORFOREVER About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Added some during pre-closing. Next year collect more dividends. Trade with awareness and DYODD
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 15:46        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No, nothing is really discounted as they are all income producing assets. All are accounted for in their roles and abilities to collectively produce the " sub par" $162mil NPAT ( vs the potential ~$450mil target), and hence being priced accordingly by market at ~$0.365± , instead of the ~$1.0 or whatever that is relective of the NAV or the NAV without the DI as some people believe. If you want to see this as a " discount" , you may. I see this as all assets (DI, P& PE, YP ...) are being accounted for accordingly with a collective value based on their actual income producing velocities and results. GoldenPig      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 14:39) Posted: You mean what is discounted instead is the new public & private equity, fund management and asset management businesses?  volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 14:02) Posted: @GoldenPig, No .... on the contrary to what many people see on the surface, the current market price is actually fully accounting for the full value of the DI which was the main Top Line contributor underpinning the $162mil NPAT in 1H23, that gives the current interim market price of $0.365± at 5% yield.
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GoldenPig Senior	29-Sep-2023 15:42        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup. Understood. Thanks v much. Good illustration/analogy. 👍 🏻 😆   volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 15:15) Posted: In summary, regardless your Porche Body and Engine, if you run it and pay like a Kia, you will be priced, treated and worthed like a Kia. When YFH moves up the run and pay rates to Toyota, BMW, Porches .... we will see YFH price to reflect the corresponding enhanced value accordingly. volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 15:02) Posted: @GoldenPig, There are many ways to value a coy, such as using NAV, DCF (Discounted cash flows with Terminal value), Excess Returns Model (by Simplywall.st), a hybrid of PB/PE with or without discount (CIMB), straightforward dividend growth model, straightforward PE multiples ... etc.  However, all the above methods could not be meaningfully applied to value YFH, because since the onset at spin off, YFH ongoing actual asset returns were still far from meeting its expected potential.  To put it bluntly in layman' s term, YFH has a Porche Body and Engine (as in it' s appearance, or simply it' s stunning $1.05 NAV), the car is still running sub par like a Kia Cerato (delivering only a Kia DPS of $0.018 on the back of NPAT $162mil in FY22, instead of an expected Porche potential DPS of $0.05 on the back of NPAT $450mil). YFH NPAT performance, which directly dictate it' s DPS outlook, will call the shot on how YFH market capitalisation is going to be valued, not it' s NTA. This is something I learnt after tracking and analysing YFH pragmatically in the past 1.5 yr. Hopefully, YFH could rev its engine up to deliver a Toyota DPS $0.03+ in FY23, then a BMW DPS $0.04+ going forward, and then a Porche DPS $0.05+ going even further forward, and may be eventually delivering a Bentley or Rolls Royce DPS in the long term.
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 15:15        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In summary, regardless your Porche Body and Engine, if you run it and pay like a Kia, you will be priced, treated and worthed like a Kia. When YFH moves up the run and pay rates to Toyota, BMW, Porches .... we will see YFH price to reflect the corresponding enhanced value accordingly. volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 15:02) Posted: @GoldenPig, There are many ways to value a coy, such as using NAV, DCF (Discounted cash flows with Terminal value), Excess Returns Model (by Simplywall.st), a hybrid of PB/PE with or without discount (CIMB), straightforward dividend growth model, straightforward PE multiples ... etc.  However, all the above methods could not be meaningfully applied to value YFH, because since the onset at spin off, YFH ongoing actual asset returns were still far from meeting its expected potential.  To put it bluntly in layman' s term, YFH has a Porche Body and Engine (as in it' s appearance, or simply it' s stunning $1.05 NAV), the car is still running sub par like a Kia Cerato (delivering only a Kia DPS of $0.018 on the back of NPAT $162mil in FY22, instead of an expected Porche potential DPS of $0.05 on the back of NPAT $450mil). YFH NPAT performance, which directly dictate it' s DPS outlook, will call the shot on how YFH market capitalisation is going to be valued, not it' s NTA. This is something I learnt after tracking and analysing YFH pragmatically in the past 1.5 yr. Hopefully, YFH could rev its engine up to deliver a Toyota DPS $0.03+ in FY23, then a BMW DPS $0.04+ going forward, and then a Porche DPS $0.05+ going even further forward, and may be eventually delivering a Bentley or Rolls Royce DPS in the long term.
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 15:02        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	@GoldenPig, There are many ways to value a coy, such as using NAV, DCF (Discounted cash flows with Terminal value), Excess Returns Model (by Simplywall.st), a hybrid of PB/PE with or without discount (CIMB), straightforward dividend growth model, straightforward PE multiples ... etc.  However, all the above methods could not be meaningfully applied to value YFH, because since the onset at spin off, YFH ongoing actual asset returns were still far from meeting its expected potential.  To put it bluntly in layman' s term, YFH has a Porche Body and Engine (as in it' s appearance, or simply it' s stunning $1.05 NAV), the car is still running sub par like a Kia Cerato (delivering only a Kia DPS of $0.018 on the back of NPAT $162mil in FY22, instead of an expected Porche potential DPS of $0.05 on the back of NPAT $450mil). YFH NPAT performance, which directly dictate it' s DPS outlook, will call the shot on how YFH market capitalisation is going to be valued, not it' s NTA. This is something I learnt after tracking and analysing YFH pragmatically in the past 1.5 yr. Hopefully, YFH could rev its engine up to deliver a Toyota DPS $0.03+ in FY23, then a BMW DPS $0.04+ going forward, and then a Porche DPS $0.05+ going even further forward, and may be eventually delivering a Bentley or Rolls Royce DPS in the long term.
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GoldenPig Senior	29-Sep-2023 14:51        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Or ...you think market price is based on 5% dividend yield and since most of the earnings is currently contributed by DI business, hence DI business value is fully accounted for? 🤔 that might be the case.
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GoldenPig Senior	29-Sep-2023 14:39        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You mean what is discounted instead is the new public & private equity, fund management and asset management businesses?  volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 14:02) Posted: @GoldenPig, No .... on the contrary to what many people see on the surface, the current market price is actually fully accounting for the full value of the DI which was the main Top Line contributor underpinning the $162mil NPAT in 1H23, that gives the current interim market price of $0.365± at 5% yield.
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 14:02        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	@GoldenPig, No .... on the contrary to what many people see on the surface, the current market price is actually fully accounting for the full value of the DI which was the main Top Line contributor underpinning the $162mil NPAT in 1H23, that gives the current interim market price of $0.365± at 5% yield.
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GoldenPig Senior	29-Sep-2023 13:42        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Volvo. Very good points.  Even if actual credit loss on the NPLs goes higher, 不 会 伤 到 元 气 。 In any case, current market price more or less takes out the value of the DI business, which is definitely worth something. volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 13:16) Posted: A further point to note on YFH twin growth engine. Besides the YOY 60% retained profit reinvestment organic growth, tapping on External Funds is another major growth path to quickly expand the AUM. Note here that YFH is tapping " Equity" external funds through, for examples, co-investment with Tahan or Heleconia or Cetus Maritimes ... etc, NOT desperately tapping on " Debt" external funds through borrowings (or worst still like many high gearing coy issuing Rights) especially in the ongoing high interest rates environment. YFH balance sheet will continue to remain highly net cash, negligible gearing, and hence zero default risk and robustly bomb proof. volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 03:08) Posted: @Vicloo, our bro SAVIORFOREVER seems talking nonsense but I think his dream is not unachievable in a time frame of 6 years, may be much less. Allow me to explain.   Let us first make the following assumptions :-   1.    YFH could ~2x its 1H23 performance and achieve FY23 NPAT at ~$320mil.   2.    YFH only grows its AUM organically with its 60% NPAT YOY reinvestment without soliciting External Funds (very conservative). These monies will be reinvested into DI or P& PE, not Cash or YP.   3.    DI gross return ~12% pa, P& PE (including maritime funds) returns 15~18% pa. Average net after tax return for both ~12% pa, or more conservative at ~10% pa.   4.    Shares O/S 3630mil throughout, meaning we conservatively assume SBB has completely stopped.   5.    No further NPL degradation issue.   6.    No Black Swan event, such as China sends Dong Feng into Taiwan &hellip   7.    No sudden severe capital control issue in China in the foreseeable years ahead.     Case 1 (DI/P& PE 12% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                     0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    12% (after tax)                                                                                                                          Shares O/S           3630mil                                                                                                                      Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            23                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      343            137            0.038      206            25                                    4498                              0.756 Y3 2025                      368            147            0.041      221            26                                    4718                              0.810 Y4 2026                      394            158            0.043      237            28                                    4955                              0.869 Y5 2027                      423            169            0.047      254            30                                    5209                              0.931 Y6 2028                      453            181            0.050      272            33                                    5480                              0.998 Y7 2029                      486            194            0.054      291            35                                    5772                              1.070     Case 2 (DI/P& PE 10% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                       0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    10% (after tax)                                                                                                  Shares O/S           3630 mil                                                                                                                                            Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            19                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      339            136            0.037      204            20                                    4496                              0.748 Y3 2025                      360            144            0.040      216            22                                    4711                              0.792 Y4 2026                      381            152            0.042      229            23                                    4940                              0.840 Y5 2027                      404            162            0.045      242            24                                    5182                              0.890 Y6 2028                      428            171            0.047      257            26                                    5439                              0.944 Y7 2029                      454            182            0.050      272            27                                    5712                              1.000     If we assume an average net after tax weighted return of 12% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 6 in 2028 with an estimated AUM of $5.48Bil, an NPAT of ~$450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.27 from FY22~FY28, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   If we are more conservative and assume an average net after tax weighted return of 10% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 7 in 2029 with an estimated AUM of $5.71Bil, an NPAT of $450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.31 from FY22~FY29, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   However, I believe a DPS of $0.05 with a corresponding TP of $1.0 will come much sooner because YFH will likely pursue more than just pure conservative organic growth, and will definitely tap on External Funds to accelerate its AUM growth at a faster pace to increase its NPAT ( such as co-investment, family offices &hellip ). And SBB will also likely continue to greatly improve EPS and DPS going forward too, though probably at a slower pace.   This is the rationale and power of retaining the 60% NPAT to achieve an impressive compounding future organic growth trajectory on top of growth through tapping on External Funds. Besides YFH bomb proof Net Cash and negligible gearing posture, this is just another major YFH&rsquo s characteristic (there are still many more) that AK failed to fundamentally understand and appreciate in his video. There will certainly be people who will disagree with some of the numbers and assumptions that I have tabled, such as the starting FY23 NPAT of $320mil or the combo DI/P& PE returns ... etc. Well, you could insert your own numbers to compute the future projections using the framework.
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 13:16        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	A further point to note on YFH twin growth engine. Besides the YOY 60% retained profit reinvestment organic growth, tapping on External Funds is another major growth path to quickly expand the AUM. Note here that YFH is tapping " Equity" external funds through, for examples, co-investment with Tahan or Heleconia or Cetus Maritimes ... etc, NOT desperately tapping on " Debt" external funds through borrowings (or worst still like many high gearing coy issuing Rights) especially in the ongoing high interest rates environment. YFH balance sheet will continue to remain highly net cash, negligible gearing, and hence zero default risk and robustly bomb proof. volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 03:08) Posted: @Vicloo, our bro SAVIORFOREVER seems talking nonsense but I think his dream is not unachievable in a time frame of 6 years, may be much less. Allow me to explain.   Let us first make the following assumptions :-   1.    YFH could ~2x its 1H23 performance and achieve FY23 NPAT at ~$320mil.   2.    YFH only grows its AUM organically with its 60% NPAT YOY reinvestment without soliciting External Funds (very conservative). These monies will be reinvested into DI or P& PE, not Cash or YP.   3.    DI gross return ~12% pa, P& PE (including maritime funds) returns 15~18% pa. Average net after tax return for both ~12% pa, or more conservative at ~10% pa.   4.    Shares O/S 3630mil throughout, meaning we conservatively assume SBB has completely stopped.   5.    No further NPL degradation issue.   6.    No Black Swan event, such as China sends Dong Feng into Taiwan &hellip   7.    No sudden severe capital control issue in China in the foreseeable years ahead.     Case 1 (DI/P& PE 12% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                     0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    12% (after tax)                                                                                                                          Shares O/S           3630mil                                                                                                                      Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            23                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      343            137            0.038      206            25                                    4498                              0.756 Y3 2025                      368            147            0.041      221            26                                    4718                              0.810 Y4 2026                      394            158            0.043      237            28                                    4955                              0.869 Y5 2027                      423            169            0.047      254            30                                    5209                              0.931 Y6 2028                      453            181            0.050      272            33                                    5480                              0.998 Y7 2029                      486            194            0.054      291            35                                    5772                              1.070     Case 2 (DI/P& PE 10% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                       0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    10% (after tax)                                                                                                  Shares O/S           3630 mil                                                                                                                                            Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            19                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      339            136            0.037      204            20                                    4496                              0.748 Y3 2025                      360            144            0.040      216            22                                    4711                              0.792 Y4 2026                      381            152            0.042      229            23                                    4940                              0.840 Y5 2027                      404            162            0.045      242            24                                    5182                              0.890 Y6 2028                      428            171            0.047      257            26                                    5439                              0.944 Y7 2029                      454            182            0.050      272            27                                    5712                              1.000     If we assume an average net after tax weighted return of 12% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 6 in 2028 with an estimated AUM of $5.48Bil, an NPAT of ~$450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.27 from FY22~FY28, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   If we are more conservative and assume an average net after tax weighted return of 10% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 7 in 2029 with an estimated AUM of $5.71Bil, an NPAT of $450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.31 from FY22~FY29, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   However, I believe a DPS of $0.05 with a corresponding TP of $1.0 will come much sooner because YFH will likely pursue more than just pure conservative organic growth, and will definitely tap on External Funds to accelerate its AUM growth at a faster pace to increase its NPAT ( such as co-investment, family offices &hellip ). And SBB will also likely continue to greatly improve EPS and DPS going forward too, though probably at a slower pace.   This is the rationale and power of retaining the 60% NPAT to achieve an impressive compounding future organic growth trajectory on top of growth through tapping on External Funds. Besides YFH bomb proof Net Cash and negligible gearing posture, this is just another major YFH&rsquo s characteristic (there are still many more) that AK failed to fundamentally understand and appreciate in his video. There will certainly be people who will disagree with some of the numbers and assumptions that I have tabled, such as the starting FY23 NPAT of $320mil or the combo DI/P& PE returns ... etc. Well, you could insert your own numbers to compute the future projections using the framework.
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pasttime Elite	29-Sep-2023 12:02        pasttime About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Buy good stock on sale and collect dividend long long time"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thxs Volvo125 . Good analysis. This yzjfh has performed better then market in past few weeks. Money suck in by fed qt and us banks keeping more float then normal to hedge risk. Also too much cash sideline for higher interest return. Smart one will shift money from cash to stock over time. Any indication from fed stop qt. Market could recover . Be happy enjoy life to wait for next leg up. To honk before next may should have some movement
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GoldenPig Senior	29-Sep-2023 11:33        GoldenPig About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Many people do not appreciate the magic of compounding. A compounding growth formula is a very powerful one as it is essentially an exponential curve. (The spread of COVID-19 is an example.) The rate of increase is extremely slow at first but picks up faster and faster later on. So yes, we need lots of patience and let time do the heavy work of compounding. If we can resist taking profit after only a few years, we will see really serious total returns from 2nd-3rd decade onwards.
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pkli899 Supreme	29-Sep-2023 09:03        pkli899 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Another excellent piece by volvo125. We are very lucky to have him with us. His effort is much appreciated
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Amateurinvestor Veteran	29-Sep-2023 08:35        Amateurinvestor About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Brilliant detailed analysis by bro Volvo as usual ? I guess patience is the key as lots of us has been waiting for 1.5 years already and not seen any fruits yet?. Just hopefully we don?t have to wait another 1.5 years haha
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vicloo Elite	29-Sep-2023 05:16        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for the detail analysis... hope the co starts to grow and gives value to shareholders like you said 👍 👍 👍 👍 volvo125      ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 03:08) Posted: @Vicloo, our bro SAVIORFOREVER seems talking nonsense but I think his dream is not unachievable in a time frame of 6 years, may be much less. Allow me to explain.   Let us first make the following assumptions :-   1.    YFH could ~2x its 1H23 performance and achieve FY23 NPAT at ~$320mil.   2.    YFH only grows its AUM organically with its 60% NPAT YOY reinvestment without soliciting External Funds (very conservative). These monies will be reinvested into DI or P& PE, not Cash or YP.   3.    DI gross return ~12% pa, P& PE (including maritime funds) returns 15~18% pa. Average net after tax return for both ~12% pa, or more conservative at ~10% pa.   4.    Shares O/S 3630mil throughout, meaning we conservatively assume SBB has completely stopped.   5.    No further NPL degradation issue.   6.    No Black Swan event, such as China sends Dong Feng into Taiwan &hellip   7.    No sudden severe capital control issue in China in the foreseeable years ahead.     Case 1 (DI/P& PE 12% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                     0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    12% (after tax)                                                                                                                          Shares O/S           3630mil                                                                                                                      Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            23                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      343            137            0.038      206            25                                    4498                              0.756 Y3 2025                      368            147            0.041      221            26                                    4718                              0.810 Y4 2026                      394            158            0.043      237            28                                    4955                              0.869 Y5 2027                      423            169            0.047      254            30                                    5209                              0.931 Y6 2028                      453            181            0.050      272            33                                    5480                              0.998 Y7 2029                      486            194            0.054      291            35                                    5772                              1.070     Case 2 (DI/P& PE 10% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                       0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    10% (after tax)                                                                                                  Shares O/S           3630 mil                                                                                                                                            Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            19                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      339            136            0.037      204            20                                    4496                              0.748 Y3 2025                      360            144            0.040      216            22                                    4711                              0.792 Y4 2026                      381            152            0.042      229            23                                    4940                              0.840 Y5 2027                      404            162            0.045      242            24                                    5182                              0.890 Y6 2028                      428            171            0.047      257            26                                    5439                              0.944 Y7 2029                      454            182            0.050      272            27                                    5712                              1.000     If we assume an average net after tax weighted return of 12% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 6 in 2028 with an estimated AUM of $5.48Bil, an NPAT of ~$450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.27 from FY22~FY28, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   If we are more conservative and assume an average net after tax weighted return of 10% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 7 in 2029 with an estimated AUM of $5.71Bil, an NPAT of $450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.31 from FY22~FY29, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   However, I believe a DPS of $0.05 with a corresponding TP of $1.0 will come much sooner because YFH will likely pursue more than just pure conservative organic growth, and will definitely tap on External Funds to accelerate its AUM growth at a faster pace to increase its NPAT ( such as co-investment, family offices &hellip ). And SBB will also likely continue to greatly improve EPS and DPS going forward too, though probably at a slower pace.   This is the rationale and power of retaining the 60% NPAT to achieve an impressive compounding future organic growth trajectory on top of growth through tapping on External Funds. Besides YFH bomb proof Net Cash and negligible gearing posture, this is just another major YFH&rsquo s characteristic (there are still many more) that AK failed to fundamentally understand and appreciate in his video. There will certainly be people who will disagree with some of the numbers and assumptions that I have tabled, such as the starting FY23 NPAT of $320mil or the combo DI/P& PE returns ... etc. Well, you could insert your own numbers to compute the future projections using the framework.
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volvo125 Veteran	29-Sep-2023 03:08        volvo125 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	@Vicloo, our bro SAVIORFOREVER seems talking nonsense but I think his dream is not unachievable in a time frame of 6 years, may be much less. Allow me to explain.   Let us first make the following assumptions :-   1.    YFH could ~2x its 1H23 performance and achieve FY23 NPAT at ~$320mil.   2.    YFH only grows its AUM organically with its 60% NPAT YOY reinvestment without soliciting External Funds (very conservative). These monies will be reinvested into DI or P& PE, not Cash or YP.   3.    DI gross return ~12% pa, P& PE (including maritime funds) returns 15~18% pa. Average net after tax return for both ~12% pa, or more conservative at ~10% pa.   4.    Shares O/S 3630mil throughout, meaning we conservatively assume SBB has completely stopped.   5.    No further NPL degradation issue.   6.    No Black Swan event, such as China sends Dong Feng into Taiwan &hellip   7.    No sudden severe capital control issue in China in the foreseeable years ahead.     Case 1 (DI/P& PE 12% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                     0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    12% (after tax)                                                                                                                          Shares O/S           3630mil                                                                                                                      Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            23                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      343            137            0.038      206            25                                    4498                              0.756 Y3 2025                      368            147            0.041      221            26                                    4718                              0.810 Y4 2026                      394            158            0.043      237            28                                    4955                              0.869 Y5 2027                      423            169            0.047      254            30                                    5209                              0.931 Y6 2028                      453            181            0.050      272            33                                    5480                              0.998 Y7 2029                      486            194            0.054      291            35                                    5772                              1.070     Case 2 (DI/P& PE 10% pa net after tax weighted return)   div ratio                       0.4                                                                                                                                    retain ratio              0.6                                                                                                                                    ave net return    10% (after tax)                                                                                                  Shares O/S           3630 mil                                                                                                                                            Div Yield                    5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NPAT    Div            DPS        Retain  Retain return        AUM Growth        TP@5% Yield Y0 2022                      162            65          0.018                                          4100                              0.360 Y1 2023                      320            128            0.035      192            19                                    4292                              0.705 Y2 2024                      339            136            0.037      204            20                                    4496                              0.748 Y3 2025                      360            144            0.040      216            22                                    4711                              0.792 Y4 2026                      381            152            0.042      229            23                                    4940                              0.840 Y5 2027                      404            162            0.045      242            24                                    5182                              0.890 Y6 2028                      428            171            0.047      257            26                                    5439                              0.944 Y7 2029                      454            182            0.050      272            27                                    5712                              1.000     If we assume an average net after tax weighted return of 12% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 6 in 2028 with an estimated AUM of $5.48Bil, an NPAT of ~$450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.27 from FY22~FY28, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   If we are more conservative and assume an average net after tax weighted return of 10% pa for DI and P& PE, YFH will pay a DPS of $0.05 by Year 7 in 2029 with an estimated AUM of $5.71Bil, an NPAT of $450mil and a projected TP worths $1.0 at 5% yield. Meanwhile, you would have already collected a total dividend of $0.31 from FY22~FY29, while still holding a piece of YFH share at ~$1.0 face value, and still appreciating YOY going forward.   However, I believe a DPS of $0.05 with a corresponding TP of $1.0 will come much sooner because YFH will likely pursue more than just pure conservative organic growth, and will definitely tap on External Funds to accelerate its AUM growth at a faster pace to increase its NPAT ( such as co-investment, family offices &hellip ). And SBB will also likely continue to greatly improve EPS and DPS going forward too, though probably at a slower pace.   This is the rationale and power of retaining the 60% NPAT to achieve an impressive compounding future organic growth trajectory on top of growth through tapping on External Funds. Besides YFH bomb proof Net Cash and negligible gearing posture, this is just another major YFH&rsquo s characteristic (there are still many more) that AK failed to fundamentally understand and appreciate in his video. There will certainly be people who will disagree with some of the numbers and assumptions that I have tabled, such as the starting FY23 NPAT of $320mil or the combo DI/P& PE returns ... etc. Well, you could insert your own numbers to compute the future projections using the framework.
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vicloo Elite	28-Sep-2023 20:06        vicloo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Super power SAVIORFOREVER, from 36c to 100?? That's 10x more powerful than tesla lol. SAVIORFOREVER      ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 17:39) Posted: See whether can hit 100 in next 6 years first. World economy is getting complicated. Trade with speculation and DYODD ss2017.      ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 09:19) Posted: I will keep YZJFH until I see the share price is around $3~$5 with potential Shanghai exchange listing. In the meantime just enjoy the dividend come in May. We long holders need extra patience for this stock to take off. I just take DBS for example, its yearly earning 8.5x of YZJFH, but its share price is 92x of YZJFH ie $33.43 Vs $0.365. I don't consider YZJFH this gem as a penny stock by any standards. AK view is personal because he talking to ownself, he repeated it. He compared local banks dividend with YZJFH therefore suggested the latest is short term and risky. Actually he is comparing apples with an orange, although it is sour but juicy. Why ? Please look at banks and YZJFH yearly earnings, say 162mx2 with $0.365 share price, the banks can't match it at all.( Banks earn about $2~3B)
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