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YZJ Fin Hldg
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YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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atomgraf
Member |
01-Mar-2023 16:45
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I believe it means it' s still sufficiently collateralised so no risk of loss / need to provision for loss. It' s like u default on your mortgage and the bank repossess your property, sell it on the open market and managed to claw back every cent it lent you. That' s why they did not breakdown the industries.  It' s behind payments on interest / principle, but still sufficiently  collateralised.
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 16:36
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Actually I don't quite understand what is meant by that "various" $524m NPL stated as "Projects with no value at risk", and there is no provisions allocated. It seems to mean that these $524m NPL is although non performing now but there is zero risk of its face value going bad so no provision is even needed ... tio boh @emailpeter ?
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emailpeter
Senior |
01-Mar-2023 16:07
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Thks @volvo125 for this apt summary of NPL. I just read  PowerPoint Presentation (sgx.com), and was about to type in words similar to your findings.  I also want add that 1142m half of their current total DI !!! 87% falls due within 12 mths, hence this year will tell if how much writeoffs gets dumped to P& L. Now we can see why investors value company based on divs or cash asset value, all these ahlong facilities are showing some ugly heads. Page 16 breaks NPL by industries. Looks like property (and retail) took the biggest hits. But that strange " ' Various" which is 50% of NPL, is silent an unknown. Silliest accountant, leaving more doubt than solving. @sgng123, we value this company as a 33c fixed deposit share cert, paying us 6% div next year. Hoping more upside from DI recoveries and most importantly success in newer business models. 
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 15:42
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YFH NPL is not clearing up yet ... in fact the NPL principal has increased from $776m in 3Q to $1142m in Q4, and up provisions from $14m in Q3 to $136m by end Q4. But the commentary in the news release relating to the NPL issue seems mild as if business as normal and the coy is not particularly alarmed or gravely concerned ... If there is going to be a analyst briefing as in 3Q arranged by L&T, then we must probe them ....
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sgng123
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 15:32
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Trading volume thinning out, had stay at 0.36-0.365range later more short covering might pop. | |||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 15:03
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Chill YZJFH should be in a upward trend now after they clear up on the NPL and provision. More cash injection from DI maturing would prompt a higher valuation just be patient. Enjoy Ur dividend 5% yield better than lot of china based listed which give nothing. Hotung and yanlord no dividend...  |
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spanky
Member |
01-Mar-2023 14:18
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To think of. A daily price surge of 0.02 cents already matched the dividend payout. Not much of surprise of dividend payout. Moving forward, focus of their business direction and Weath Management clients. Then it will become interesting again.  | |||||
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emailpeter
Senior |
01-Mar-2023 14:08
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Big big thanks to @volvo125, @sgng123 and all other fellow investors here. We are all none the wiser. Our projections merely helps us waste some time.... and brain juice. 1. I did multiple mentions of their dissappointments of NPL and the unwinding of it, (read my captions on NPL, land titles, loan profile questions I constant bring (nag) up. Some here took it lightly, as though it was an FD cert, not so simple la. And their frivolous (yes stupid) classifications of S1, S2, S3 of NPL. Trying to tell us they are hyper conservative, yet it comes across they are merely corporate ah longs, and now its showing its big red paint sprayed over its NPL debtors...... Turns out they took much bigger risk with 10 yrs of stashed up profits. The CFO in Lim & Tan mentioned nothing of impending NPLs, like that 2% was nil. Those provision are there for a reason, might well turn true, and more added as they wind down DI. 2. Bro sgng123 brought up some great points of FH' s future. The ah long high cut throating will be over soon as they shift out. They are totally unproven in their newer business models, hiring a grandious team of top shots means a square root of zilch if they can' t even manage their own funds properly. Teo is merely a puppet officer, and rest of team answer to Ren only. The next The Edge and Lim & Tan and whatever interviews with the old man is utmost important. Everyone here pls post links when received. We need read them deeply about what the heck they want to do for next 5 years..... 3. That @#$@# div of 1.8c shows high risk in whatever they delved in. 2024' s div will by 2c, and at my expected 6% return on this medium risk stock, I value it at 33c for this year. Like I said before, this stock will ding dong at 35-40c for entire 2023. We have all the time in the world to buy in when circumstances change. Or the impatient ones can get the hell out..... they are not wrong either.
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kt3152
Elite |
01-Mar-2023 13:43
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You prediction of dividend 0.18 is really spot on...Well done.....
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 13:32
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@unclebond or any brothers here with Lim& Tan accounts, please update here with the link if you guys do receive notification of any analyst briefing by YFH from L& T ... Thanks ...  | |||||
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 13:17
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Ha ha ... so more provisions top up in 4Q spoiled the soup, wiped the 4Q and ate into the 3Q .... hitting my lower end 0.018 dividend estimate .... It is a bad scenario that happened but probably not that bad a outcome such that YFH is still quite profitable and still paying a decent dividend while considering the violent turbulance in China in 2022 due to the crackdown on property, financial and tech sectors ... This new total $135.85m provisions was done after the Chinese govt relief the loan pressure on the property and financial sectors in Nov 2022 last year and was confirmed and entered into the FY22 result that was finalised in late Feb23 before today release .... So I think this $135m impact may likely the max impact YFH projected on the earlier $762m NPL. Note this $135.85m is still a provisions, not a write off and could be written back if recovery is successful going forward. Else, these $135.85m DI are backed with 1.3~2.3x collaterals so the actual impact which is definitely much lower is yet to be known.
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massimovindimian
Member |
01-Mar-2023 13:08
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When is the XD? | |||||
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volvo125
Veteran |
01-Mar-2023 12:50
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@emailpeter, this was your proection ...
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ss2017.
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 12:50
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Thank you Volvo and emailpeter.
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volvo125
Veteran |
01-Mar-2023 12:45
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Ha ha @emailpeter .... it seems that my rework on the 3Q22 biz update and then our combined inputs to estimate the projected FY22 NPAT then on 7Dec was quite spot on. If we add the sudden new 2H22 $135.85m before tax provisions back to the FY22 P& L now, we will get a NPAT of $257m .... So more provisions in 4Q22 spoiled the soup.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
01-Mar-2023 12:39
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A lot of communication materials released along with the results. Have to give credits to the management for trying to be as transparent as possible. Clearly, YZJF will scale down DI and as soon as next year, it should comprises only 30% of the overall portfolio. In turn, they will focus on other investments such as PE, fund management, wealth management and fund investment. Many of these are still in the pipelines but notably, the maritime fund is already up and running with investment into 2 tankers. 50% of the investment will be outside China too in due course. This transformation is going to take some time and management come across as confident with conviction and know what they want to do for YZJF. Meanwhile, YZJF is committed to paying at least 40% dividends up till FY2024. It is as if they are saying give us till FY2024 and you' ll see and meanwhile, thank you for waiting and we will pay you good dividends. On dividend, current yield is 5% based on 36 cents. If price run up and yield compressed, then there is capital gain. If yield remain 5% for next 2 years, then the average cost of holding will also reduce correspondingly. So we just need to choose whether we believe in the vision and execution of YZJF. Take a position, increase your position if you believe, if not, there are many other stocks available for investment too. This stock not for small time traders though, it has been 35-37 for months. In fact, YZJS is a better candidate for small traders, price can move 10-20 cents in weeks and trading with even 10-20k can still make resonable profits/losses.  | |||||
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PiRPiR
Senior |
01-Mar-2023 11:48
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5c (SB) + 1.8c (FH) = 6.8c | |||||
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atomgraf
Member |
01-Mar-2023 11:24
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I recall they wanted to give YZJFH a clean start and kept most of the problematic loans with YZJSB ... Anyway, glad that things are looking up now.
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Segarvale
Senior |
01-Mar-2023 11:19
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That 42.7% most likely include the npl that wasnt transferred to FH during spinoff..
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ss2017.
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 11:15
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It seems YZJFH Mgt follows Volvo's worse case scenario giving lower dividend this year. This shows the Mgt is financially prudent. Volvo what do you think? | |||||
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