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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.365    -0.005  Post Reply
YZJFH - potentially rewarding

atomgraf
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01-Mar-2023 16:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I believe it means it' s still sufficiently collateralised so no risk of loss / need to provision for loss.

It' s like u default on your mortgage and the bank repossess your property, sell it on the open market and managed to claw back every cent it lent you.

That' s why they did not breakdown the industries.  It' s behind payments on interest / principle, but still sufficiently  collateralised.

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 16:36) Posted:

Actually I don't quite understand what is meant by that "various" $524m NPL stated as "Projects with no value at risk", and there is no provisions allocated. It seems to mean that these $524m NPL is although non performing now but there is zero risk of its face value going bad so no provision is even needed ... tio boh @emailpeter ?

emailpeter      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 16:07) Posted:

Thks @volvo125 for this apt summary of NPL. I just read  PowerPoint Presentation (sgx.com), and was about to type in words similar to your findings. 

I also want add that 1142m half of their current total DI !!! 87% falls due within 12 mths, hence this year will tell if how much writeoffs gets dumped to P& L. Now we can see why investors value company based on divs or cash asset value, all these ahlong facilities are showing some ugly heads. Page 16 breaks NPL by industries. Looks like property (and retail) took the biggest hits. But that strange " ' Various" which is 50% of NPL, is silent an unknown. Silliest accountant, leaving more doubt than solving.

@sgng123, we value this company as a 33c fixed deposit share cert, paying us 6% div next year. Hoping more upside from DI recoveries and most importantly success in newer business models. 
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 16:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Actually I don't quite understand what is meant by that "various" $524m NPL stated as "Projects with no value at risk", and there is no provisions allocated. It seems to mean that these $524m NPL is although non performing now but there is zero risk of its face value going bad so no provision is even needed ... tio boh @emailpeter ?

emailpeter      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 16:07) Posted:

Thks @volvo125 for this apt summary of NPL. I just read  PowerPoint Presentation (sgx.com), and was about to type in words similar to your findings. 

I also want add that 1142m half of their current total DI !!! 87% falls due within 12 mths, hence this year will tell if how much writeoffs gets dumped to P& L. Now we can see why investors value company based on divs or cash asset value, all these ahlong facilities are showing some ugly heads. Page 16 breaks NPL by industries. Looks like property (and retail) took the biggest hits. But that strange " ' Various" which is 50% of NPL, is silent an unknown. Silliest accountant, leaving more doubt than solving.

@sgng123, we value this company as a 33c fixed deposit share cert, paying us 6% div next year. Hoping more upside from DI recoveries and most importantly success in newer business models. 

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 15:42) Posted:

YFH NPL is not clearing up yet ... in fact the NPL principal has increased from $776m in 3Q to $1142m in Q4, and up provisions from $14m in Q3 to $136m by end Q4. But the commentary in the news release relating to the NPL issue seems mild as if business as normal and the coy is not particularly alarmed or gravely concerned ... If there is going to be a analyst briefing as in 3Q arranged by L&T, then we must probe them ...
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emailpeter
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01-Mar-2023 16:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thks @volvo125 for this apt summary of NPL. I just read  PowerPoint Presentation (sgx.com), and was about to type in words similar to your findings. 

I also want add that 1142m half of their current total DI !!! 87% falls due within 12 mths, hence this year will tell if how much writeoffs gets dumped to P& L. Now we can see why investors value company based on divs or cash asset value, all these ahlong facilities are showing some ugly heads. Page 16 breaks NPL by industries. Looks like property (and retail) took the biggest hits. But that strange " ' Various" which is 50% of NPL, is silent an unknown. Silliest accountant, leaving more doubt than solving.

@sgng123, we value this company as a 33c fixed deposit share cert, paying us 6% div next year. Hoping more upside from DI recoveries and most importantly success in newer business models. 

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 15:42) Posted:

YFH NPL is not clearing up yet ... in fact the NPL principal has increased from $776m in 3Q to $1142m in Q4, and up provisions from $14m in Q3 to $136m by end Q4. But the commentary in the news release relating to the NPL issue seems mild as if business as normal and the coy is not particularly alarmed or gravely concerned ... If there is going to be a analyst briefing as in 3Q arranged by L&T, then we must probe them ....

sgng123      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 15:03) Posted:

Chill YZJFH should be in a upward trend now after they clear up on the NPL and provision.
More cash injection from DI maturing would prompt a higher valuation just be patient. Enjoy Ur dividend 5% yield better than lot of china based listed which give nothing. Hotung and yanlord no dividend... 


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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 15:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		YFH NPL is not clearing up yet ... in fact the NPL principal has increased from $776m in 3Q to $1142m in Q4, and up provisions from $14m in Q3 to $136m by end Q4. But the commentary in the news release relating to the NPL issue seems mild as if business as normal and the coy is not particularly alarmed or gravely concerned ... If there is going to be a analyst briefing as in 3Q arranged by L&T, then we must probe them ....

sgng123      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 15:03) Posted:

Chill YZJFH should be in a upward trend now after they clear up on the NPL and provision.
More cash injection from DI maturing would prompt a higher valuation just be patient. Enjoy Ur dividend 5% yield better than lot of china based listed which give nothing. Hotung and yanlord no dividend... 

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sgng123
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01-Mar-2023 15:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Trading volume thinning out, had stay at 0.36-0.365range later more short covering might pop.
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sgng123
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01-Mar-2023 15:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Chill YZJFH should be in a upward trend now after they clear up on the NPL and provision.
More cash injection from DI maturing would prompt a higher valuation just be patient. Enjoy Ur dividend 5% yield better than lot of china based listed which give nothing. Hotung and yanlord no dividend... 
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spanky
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01-Mar-2023 14:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		To think of. A daily price surge of 0.02 cents already matched the dividend payout. Not much of surprise of dividend payout. Moving forward, focus of their business direction and Weath Management clients. Then it will become interesting again. 
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emailpeter
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01-Mar-2023 14:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Big big thanks to @volvo125, @sgng123 and all other fellow investors here. We are all none the wiser. Our projections merely helps us waste some time.... and brain juice.

1. I did multiple mentions of their dissappointments of NPL and the unwinding of it, (read my captions on NPL, land titles, loan profile questions I constant bring (nag) up. Some here took it lightly, as though it was an FD cert, not so simple la. And their frivolous (yes stupid) classifications of S1, S2, S3 of NPL. Trying to tell us they are hyper conservative, yet it comes across they are merely corporate ah longs, and now its showing its big red paint sprayed over its NPL debtors...... Turns out they took much bigger risk with 10 yrs of stashed up profits. The CFO in Lim & Tan mentioned nothing of impending NPLs, like that 2% was nil. Those provision are there for a reason, might well turn true, and more added as they wind down DI.

2. Bro sgng123 brought up some great points of FH' s future. The ah long high cut throating will be over soon as they shift out. They are totally unproven in their newer business models, hiring a grandious team of top shots means a square root of zilch if they can' t even manage their own funds properly. Teo is merely a puppet officer, and rest of team answer to Ren only. The next The Edge and Lim & Tan and whatever interviews with the old man is utmost important. Everyone here pls post links when received. We need read them deeply about what the heck they want to do for next 5 years.....

3. That @#$@# div of 1.8c shows high risk in whatever they delved in. 2024' s div will by 2c, and at my expected 6% return on this medium risk stock, I value it at 33c for this year. Like I said before, this stock will ding dong at 35-40c for entire 2023. We have all the time in the world to buy in when circumstances change. Or the impatient ones can get the hell out..... they are not wrong either.

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 12:45) Posted:

Ha ha @emailpeter .... it seems that my rework on the 3Q22 biz update and then our combined inputs to estimate the projected FY22 NPAT then on 7Dec was quite spot on.

If we add the sudden new 2H22 $135.85m before tax provisions back to the FY22 P& L now, we will get a NPAT of $257m .... So more provisions in 4Q22 spoiled the soup.

emailpeter      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 22:07) Posted:

I took a haircut for Q4 NPAT based on your Q3 61m, as DI interest income (which is their main earner) would be suspended from those NPL loans, being a whopping 777m or 31% of their entire portfolio. NPL loans are barred from interest declaration until they are non-NPL. And their NPL stage 1,2,3. Why need a stage 2 if default is classified at T+1. They might as well go from S1 to S3.

All said, we ought be very concerned for the 777 going forward. Their remittance to outside CN will be delayed. Super long tails I reckon. And some of these titles might not be that clearcut, master titles w 3rd party homes/apartments on them. Altho they say protected by 3rd party financial institutions at full value, I won't take their word fully. Recalls back the sub prime collapses, the CDO's or CLO's were supposedly fully secured. Turned out totally falsely hidden behind artificialities.

I feel we have a long cold winter on this counter. Easily 2-3 years. So I've plenty of time to average in, if I ever want to.



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kt3152
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01-Mar-2023 13:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		You prediction of dividend 0.18 is really spot on...Well done.....

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 13:17) Posted:

Ha ha ... so more provisions top up in 4Q spoiled the soup, wiped the 4Q and ate into the 3Q .... hitting my lower end 0.018 dividend estimate ....

It is a bad scenario that happened but probably not that bad a outcome such that YFH is still quite profitable and still paying a decent dividend while considering the violent turbulance in China in 2022 due to the crackdown on property, financial and tech sectors ...

This new total $135.85m provisions was done after the Chinese govt relief the loan pressure on the property and financial sectors in Nov 2022 last year and was confirmed and entered into the FY22 result that was finalised in late Feb23 before today release .... So I think this $135m impact may likely the max impact YFH projected on the earlier $762m NPL.

Note this $135.85m is still a provisions, not a write off and could be written back if recovery is successful going forward. Else, these $135.85m DI are backed with 1.3~2.3x collaterals so the actual impact which is definitely much lower is yet to be known.

volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:

 
I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m.

@emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL.

@emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now.

Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different.

I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout.

EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683
DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027.
At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9%

Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m

EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534
DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021
At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2%

And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m.

EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451
DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018
At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3%

So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27. 

Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation.


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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 13:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		@unclebond or any brothers here with Lim& Tan accounts, please update here with the link if you guys do receive notification of any analyst briefing by YFH from L& T ... Thanks ... 
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 13:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Ha ha ... so more provisions top up in 4Q spoiled the soup, wiped the 4Q and ate into the 3Q .... hitting my lower end 0.018 dividend estimate ....

It is a bad scenario that happened but probably not that bad a outcome such that YFH is still quite profitable and still paying a decent dividend while considering the violent turbulance in China in 2022 due to the crackdown on property, financial and tech sectors ...

This new total $135.85m provisions was done after the Chinese govt relief the loan pressure on the property and financial sectors in Nov 2022 last year and was confirmed and entered into the FY22 result that was finalised in late Feb23 before today release .... So I think this $135m impact may likely the max impact YFH projected on the earlier $762m NPL.

Note this $135.85m is still a provisions, not a write off and could be written back if recovery is successful going forward. Else, these $135.85m DI are backed with 1.3~2.3x collaterals so the actual impact which is definitely much lower is yet to be known.

volvo125      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 16:15) Posted:

 
I would like to reiterate here that, if the latest Nav 1.0923 stated by YFH is referenced to 3744m o/s as at 30Sep2022 ( ie, not the old 3937m as at 30Jun2022, or 3951m that CIMB was still strangely using, or the latest 3691m that was last registered as on 31Oct2022 ), which I think it should unless the CFO LiuHua or CEO Toe were dumb enough to overlook the mistake, then this Nav could be crudely reverse engineered with the 3Q RMB devaluation against SGD + new NPL provisions to give a 3Q NPAT $61m.

@emailpeter had made a crude 4Q NPAT projection of $55m with a haircut assumption using 3Q $61m as reference, noting on the loss of income on the affected NPL 777m portion. FY22 NPAT was projected at $252m, higher than YFH/CIMB prevailing guided NPAT $220m.    I think the projection is reasonable, provided 1) the nav  1.09223@3744m  o/s is indeed valid, 2) no more new and huge provision from the NPL.

@emailpeter estimated the dividend payout using a 90% SBB assumption, which was also what I did earlier before the SBB was abruptly stopped on 31oct2022. I tend to have a different view now.

Treasury shares are excluded from EPS and DPS so EPS and DPS will increase accordingly. However, I am not sure when is the cut off point now because FY22 result is contingent on 31Dec2022 where EPS will be declared based on the shares o/s as at 31Dec2022. YFH may continue to SBB until 1 month before FY22 release in mid~late Feb or early Mar, and then SBB again until AGM as long as the max is still not reached. Book close for dividend payout is in mid~late Apr. The shares o/s as at 31Dec2022 and Book close in Apr2023 are very different.

I tend to think now that the cut off to determine the shares o/s for dividend payouts is likely set at 31Dec2022. Since YFH has not rebooted SBB for unkown reason(s) after releasing the 3Q, I would now conservatively assume no more SBB until probably the commencement of Jan 2023. I would use 3691m o/s or 66% SBB as the cut off for dividend payout.

EPS = $252m / 3691 = 0.0683
DPS = 0.6827 * 0.40 = $0.0273, rounded off to $0.027.
At current price ~0.34, yield = 7.9%

Now, if we assume a very bad scenario such that  there are more nasty huge NPL provisions to add such that YFH just breakeven in 4Q, then FY22 NPAT would be 136m + 61m = $197m

EPS = $197 / 3691 = 0.0534
DPS = 0.0534 * 0.4 = 0.0213, rounded off to $0.021
At current price ~0.34, yield = 6.2%

And further, if we are even more conserative, we can take a 50% cut on the re-engineered 3Q NPAT 61m.

EPS = [ 136 + ( 61 * 0.5 ) ] / 3691 = 0.0451
DPS = 0.0451 * 0.4 = 0.018
At current price ~0.34, yield = 5.3%

So you could be looking at a DPS of between 0.18 to 0.27. 

Again, I would like to reiterate here one more time that if the stated Nav 1.0923 by YFH is validly referenced to 3744m o/s, then I think DPS 0.27 is a reasonable expectation.


UMIST13      ( Date: 08-Dec-2022 12:11) Posted:

Hello Volvo ,

thanks for the good analysis. So what is the expected dividend ?

Thanks
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massimovindimian
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01-Mar-2023 13:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		When is the XD?
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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 12:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		@emailpeter, this was your proection ...

emailpeter      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 03:23) Posted:

I will do some estimates based on your projections. Feel free correct my assumptions.
 
Q1+Q2      136
Q3 (e)          61
Q4 (e)          55
NPAT        252m
 
O/S Shares          3950
Less SBB (90%)   355
Net O/S              3595m
 
Est EPS 252/3595 = $0.07
Est PER (0.34)       = 4.8x
Est Div% (40%)      = 0.028 / 0.34 = 8.2%
Effective Div%        = 0.028 / 0.45 = 6.2% *
* each investor can base on own ave cost. In my case its $0.45.
 
" d)    $777m NPL seems scary but only $14.8m seems really bad that needs provisions and these DIs are backed by 1.3x collaterals. I' m not expert so unable to comment on the recovery process further."
 
I' m also not an expert on this area, CIMB' s mention of 2.3x is taken at book values by FH, it would be a struggle to make accurate liquidation valuations of each land parcel owing to this volatile (downward) market. Furthermore, that ratio is on a grand total basis, in all likelihood the NPL loans would naturally cover the weaker land parcels, they might well be in major loan deficit. The plus would be most of the loan would have been paid back, leading to small amounts at NPL. We are just blindly guessing here.
 
I can' t see how they can make full recovery of all maturing loans, and not any rollovers. Credit to marginal companies are the hardest at this recessionary juncture.
 
It can be safely assumed, any large impending writeoff of NPL' s will be a huge major hit to yearend NPAT.
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ss2017.
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01-Mar-2023 12:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thank you Volvo and emailpeter.

volvo125      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 12:45) Posted:

Ha ha @emailpeter .... it seems that my rework on the 3Q22 biz update and then our combined inputs to estimate the projected FY22 NPAT then on 7Dec was quite spot on.

If we add the sudden new 2H22 $135.85m before tax provisions back to the FY22 P& L now, we will get a NPAT of $257m .... So more provisions in 4Q22 spoiled the soup.

emailpeter      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 22:07) Posted:

I took a haircut for Q4 NPAT based on your Q3 61m, as DI interest income (which is their main earner) would be suspended from those NPL loans, being a whopping 777m or 31% of their entire portfolio. NPL loans are barred from interest declaration until they are non-NPL. And their NPL stage 1,2,3. Why need a stage 2 if default is classified at T+1. They might as well go from S1 to S3.

All said, we ought be very concerned for the 777 going forward. Their remittance to outside CN will be delayed. Super long tails I reckon. And some of these titles might not be that clearcut, master titles w 3rd party homes/apartments on them. Altho they say protected by 3rd party financial institutions at full value, I won't take their word fully. Recalls back the sub prime collapses, the CDO's or CLO's were supposedly fully secured. Turned out totally falsely hidden behind artificialities.

I feel we have a long cold winter on this counter. Easily 2-3 years. So I've plenty of time to average in, if I ever want to.



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volvo125
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01-Mar-2023 12:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Ha ha @emailpeter .... it seems that my rework on the 3Q22 biz update and then our combined inputs to estimate the projected FY22 NPAT then on 7Dec was quite spot on.

If we add the sudden new 2H22 $135.85m before tax provisions back to the FY22 P& L now, we will get a NPAT of $257m .... So more provisions in 4Q22 spoiled the soup.

emailpeter      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 22:07) Posted:

I took a haircut for Q4 NPAT based on your Q3 61m, as DI interest income (which is their main earner) would be suspended from those NPL loans, being a whopping 777m or 31% of their entire portfolio. NPL loans are barred from interest declaration until they are non-NPL. And their NPL stage 1,2,3. Why need a stage 2 if default is classified at T+1. They might as well go from S1 to S3.

All said, we ought be very concerned for the 777 going forward. Their remittance to outside CN will be delayed. Super long tails I reckon. And some of these titles might not be that clearcut, master titles w 3rd party homes/apartments on them. Altho they say protected by 3rd party financial institutions at full value, I won't take their word fully. Recalls back the sub prime collapses, the CDO's or CLO's were supposedly fully secured. Turned out totally falsely hidden behind artificialities.

I feel we have a long cold winter on this counter. Easily 2-3 years. So I've plenty of time to average in, if I ever want to.



volvo125      ( Date: 07-Dec-2022 13:02) Posted:

I was quite surprised to work out the NPAT at $61m inspite of the income streams problem on the affected NPL portion, the additional $14.8m NPL provision, and weak Shanghai and Shenshen markets that woud incur more negative fair value adjustment to the PE investments. I was expecting much lower but I do not think YFH is stupid enough to quote the latest Nav 1.0923 with the old 3937m o/s. 

However, if YFH was quoting (again erroneously) the Nav 1.0923 with reference to the latest 3691m o/s as at 31Oct2022, then the net asset would equate to 1.0923 * 3691 = $4032m. Then netting off the ~$107m RMB devaluation and $14.8m NPL provision will give a near breakeven NPAT $3.8m. I hope the CFO LiuHua didnt make this referencing mistake.

Not sure how you arrive at 4Q NPAT $55m but I would see more progressive +ve sides in 4Q due to the significant recovery in the SH and SZ markets, the easing of credit by the CCCP and the easing of covid restrictions. Unless more NPL provisions have to be pledged in 4Q, your 4Q projection is reasonable if 3Q NPAT $61m is indeed valid as a reference.

On NPL, YFH website stated : Collateral coverage ratio for DI (at amortised costs) : 1.3x  as at 31 dec 2021. Based on CIMB indicated 2.3x taken at BV, YFH could have raised the collateral to 2.3x for the new DI added in 2022, but the 31% NPL DI could have been the older batches taken in during 2H2021 with 1.3x. 

YFH NPL average ~16% between 2019~2021 before spin off, but only 12% and 2% of the allowance for impairment loss were used in 2019 and 2021 respectively, so the recovery seems still very good. According to YFH 1H2022 report, a loan is classified as NPL once principal payments are passed due VS industry standard of > 90d.

As at 30Jun2022, Total UPL (underperforming) + NPL was = $162m + $52m = $215m, so there was a sudden increase of $562m NPL in 3Q and the $162m UPL had also turned NPL.

Only time will tell how these $777m NPL will be sorted out, either via new payment terms, via partial or full recovery via collateralised assets seizure, or write off partially or completely .... etc we outsiders can' t really comment ...


 
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HVRRVH
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01-Mar-2023 12:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A lot of communication materials released along with the results. Have to give credits to the management for trying to be as transparent as possible. Clearly, YZJF will scale down DI and as soon as next year, it should comprises only 30% of the overall portfolio. In turn, they will focus on other investments such as PE, fund management, wealth management and fund investment. Many of these are still in the pipelines but notably, the maritime fund is already up and running with investment into 2 tankers. 50% of the investment will be outside China too in due course. This transformation is going to take some time and management come across as confident with conviction and know what they want to do for YZJF. Meanwhile, YZJF is committed to paying at least 40% dividends up till FY2024. It is as if they are saying give us till FY2024 and you' ll see and meanwhile, thank you for waiting and we will pay you good dividends. On dividend, current yield is 5% based on 36 cents. If price run up and yield compressed, then there is capital gain. If yield remain 5% for next 2 years, then the average cost of holding will also reduce correspondingly. So we just need to choose whether we believe in the vision and execution of YZJF. Take a position, increase your position if you believe, if not, there are many other stocks available for investment too. This stock not for small time traders though, it has been 35-37 for months. In fact, YZJS is a better candidate for small traders, price can move 10-20 cents in weeks and trading with even 10-20k can still make resonable profits/losses. 
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PiRPiR
Senior
01-Mar-2023 11:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		5c (SB) + 1.8c (FH) = 6.8c
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atomgraf
Member
01-Mar-2023 11:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I recall they wanted to give YZJFH a clean start and kept most of the problematic loans with YZJSB ...
Anyway, glad that things are looking up now.

Segarvale      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 11:19) Posted:

That 42.7% most likely include the npl that wasnt transferred to FH during spinoff..

atomgraf      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 11:13) Posted:

Looks like the re-opening of China is a huge boost to the econmy (and mgt optimism), I did not realise it was so bad during the lock-down years.

The NPL  Expected Credit Loss Rate was 42.7% in FY21, and 12.7% in FY2
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Segarvale
Senior
01-Mar-2023 11:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		That 42.7% most likely include the npl that wasnt transferred to FH during spinoff..

atomgraf      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 11:13) Posted:

Looks like the re-opening of China is a huge boost to the econmy (and mgt optimism), I did not realise it was so bad during the lock-down years.

The NPL  Expected Credit Loss Rate was 42.7% in FY21, and 12.7% in FY22

Segarvale      ( Date: 01-Mar-2023 11:01) Posted:

Yup, it is the overall rate on total debt portfolio..😉
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ss2017.
Supreme
01-Mar-2023 11:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It seems YZJFH Mgt follows Volvo's worse case scenario giving lower dividend this year. This shows the Mgt is financially prudent. Volvo what do you think?
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