Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Fin Hldg Last:0.415 +0.01 | Post Reply |
YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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ss2017.
Supreme |
14-Nov-2022 22:03
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At this point in time, YZJFH share price 35c is almost at year low (69c to 31c). Many uncertainties ahead.
Imagine next year or three years down the road, this dark horse will appear to be a winner, share price achieve 2x or 3x of current price. Imagine also YZJFH unfortunately hammered down by certain circumstances was an rare event, happened once a life time. I can draw learned lessons from these eventful incidents : 1. YZJFH in future should consider seriously accept what type of substantial share holders especially must study angmoh fund profile. Take them in for joint prosperity and joint misery. 2. Any new listed companies must consider sgx short sellings are aggressive. Daily short sell volume occupied high percentage of trade yet regulator didn't notice it, it happened to YZJFH.
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Dannkh
Veteran |
14-Nov-2022 19:58
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Today, Yzjfh & Yzjsh are the top 5 companies with short-sell volumes. Yzjfh short-sell is abt 14.5m shares at abt 35c average. Dyodd. | ||||
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volvo125
Master |
14-Nov-2022 19:13
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Every good coy that performs well will almost certainly have some form of very obvious strong leadership behind the scene, whether this leadership comes from the chairman or from the ceo, and backed by a strong and relevantly experienced board plus management team. So Ren' s convenient assumption of his strategic commanding posture in the background with the younger Toe fronting all the rollouts is a good combo in my opinion. Without a strong visionary and pragmatic leadership, indecisions and politics will rise and lead the coy to nowhere. Ren and Toe have a very clear game plan that has been translated into strategic milestones in the fact sheets. It was very clear that Ren wanted YFH to succeed at the very onset. Ren retained ~$530m of DI (with collection problems due to various reasons) at YZJ to give YFH a clean start. He also went on to carve out from YZJ a $770m cash to fund YFH ongoing transformation at the spin off. 260mil shares were progressively bought back in past 6 months at a cost of $100m and the SBB is still ongoing. And he has just come out again to unilaterally declare that he would increase his stake as well as to seek a fresh SBB mandate once the current mandate is maxed out. Do I have reason to doubt what he said ? No ... I seriously think he meant it and I believe he is resolute and has a strong conviction to lift YFH up. Not exactly sure why the GwaiLo dumped YFH in an en mass exodus ... may be like what you said these angmoh didnt understand him and buy his story ... or may be YFH was simply unlucky to have been spun off during a turbulent time plagued by PRC property crisis and economic slowdown plus the involuntary global capital flights triggered by the appreciating USD. And Yes .... agree with you totally that if YFH were still a pte coy, our small money would never get a chance to ride with this dark horse.
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YibaoI
Senior |
12-Nov-2022 01:56
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Saw this posted just yesterday and think to share. If you can read chinese.
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emailpeter
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 22:27
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Once again, big thanks to you @volvo125 for the insightful digestion of the proponent's ideas of how they want shape their company. The Edge interview solidifies the thought process & aims of its commanding chairman, whether we like it or not.
He solidly feels (w 21+10+9%), that he owns the entire company, at his whim & fancy of how he wants steer it. In this case he has disclosed that he is continuedly leveraging on 2 notions (interalia more). 1. His decades of in-house experience in ship building to know steel to ships to shipowners income streams. Thereby using FH funds to plough into ability to assist growth of ships & leasing income. "Maritime fund" 2. His Jiangsu extensive network of HNW tycoons, that will allow for AUM growth, and raise funds for his overseas expansion (albeit unproven if he can excel at rest of world income generation). We Chinese can relate, we buy his integrity more than the product. But the gwailo's (and their BB funds) won't understand a morsel of square root of that. If FH was a private co, our small funds won't get a chance to be part. As a listed co, subject to gyrations of BB, we hv to endure. In nutshell, we are betting on his ability to leverage upon his contacts. As a Chinaman, I choose to believe him. Likewise you do.
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Heng5335
Member |
11-Nov-2022 20:45
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you have good foresight
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volvo125
Master |
11-Nov-2022 19:22
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Many people likely miss the significance of QDLP in Ren' s interview because there is no loud tangible value being translated into numbers or dollars, ... yet. A full QDLP status with both the licence and quota on hand will allow YFH to raise RMB from within China (within Jiangyin in particular, within thre Jiangsu Province) for offshore investment. QDLP is the key to signing on more family offices from the 600 ultra rich familes in Jiangyin (which will increase YFH AUM through 3rd party fund), as well as a springboard to accelerate the ongoing offshore investment pace towards 50% of YFH total assets in a shorter time frame. Securing the QDLP licence will therefore have a very significant positive financial implication on YFH P& L and Balance Sheet going forward.  | ||||
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 18:55
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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You are right @volvo125 I guess I am just not used to seeing a Chairman be so loose with describing forecasts and what he intends to do so publicly and in a relatively smaller publications article. Would be very happy to see EPS at $0.06 for FY22 but am cautious on their 2H22 performance. The two reports from Jul and Aug could be relatively outdated in terms of earnings forecasts given the more recent deterioiration of macro fundamentals in China. 
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volvo125
Master |
11-Nov-2022 18:38
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Er ... No, RenYL was only giving an example based on the past 3 years known steady EPS performance if the 40% payout ratio were to apply. Toe had already guided the FY22 NPAT at ~$220m with the analysts at Lim& Tan (report dated 12 Jul 2022) and CIMB (report dated 15 Aug 2022). The estimated EPS for FY22 will likely work out to be $0.06 at the latest known float of 3690m. Again ... No, an Insider is free to buy the company shares as long as it is not during sensitive period, such as pending the release of news that are material in nature (FY and 1H release, major order wins, M& A ...etc), and also as long as he reports the transaction to SGX within stipulated  time frame. So Ren can buy and say nothing until he reports, or he can say he intend to buy and then he really buy, or he can say he intend to buy but no action ... regardless, as long as his buy action does not precede an insider privileged news or event that has material effect to the coy.
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pasttime
Elite |
11-Nov-2022 18:18
Yells: "peace, love, joy be upon you" |
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assume 8c profit if real will be good. dividend will be more then my expectation of 2c. | ||||
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ss2017.
Supreme |
11-Nov-2022 18:18
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Thank you for highlighting the article.
As investors we can at least do two things: One, support the company, buy at this low price level with spare cash. Two, be patience. Hope you all earn big digits next year. Endurance is needed.
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 17:37
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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Excerpts from The Edge:  Assuming an EPS of 8 cents, with a payout ratio of 40%, will mean a dividend of 3.2 cents, which will translate into a yield of 9.41% at 34 cents. This is a more generous dividend policy than 90% of all Singapore-listed companies, claims Ren. Is Ren blatantly providing his own forecast for FY22 earnings (8 cents EPS) via The Edge? Is this considered price sensitive material non-public information that should not be comminicated via a subscriber only article on the Egde and instead via SGXNet? He appears to communicate that 8 cents EPS is possible despite the macro environment in China?  Regardless, he is quite bullish and I am delighted to see it.  When asked, Ren says that once the 10% mark is reached, he is prepared to move in and increase his personal stake, while seeking another mandate from shareholders to continue the buyback. Ren notes that the share price, at current levels, is just a fraction of YZJFHs book value of $1.07 as at June 30. " You are paying just 30 cents to buy $1 worth of assets." Again, is this considered price sensitive material non-public information? A Chairman is outright saying that he is preparing to buy back from the market in a subscriber only article on The Edge rather than via SGXNet.  Regardless, he is extremely bullish and I am happy to see it.  Vested and looking to further accumulate at these levels. Although I am of the view that EPS for FY22 will be closer to 5 cents given the situation in China... See below:  Worst case scenario: NPAT: $136,379,000 (1H22) + $50,000,000 (2H22 worse case) = $186,379,000 Outstanding number of shares:  3,937,589,220 - 259,611,100 (treasury shares) = 3,677,978,120  Dividends Based on 40% NPAT Payout: $186,379,000 X 0.4 = $74,551,600 Dividend per Share: ($74,551,600)/(3,677,978,120) = $0.0203 Dividend Yield: $0.0203/$0.33 = 0.062 (6.2%) Worse case scenario valuation: P/E 6.8x, P/B 0.3x, Div Yield 6.2% |
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stonkmaster
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 16:31
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Think must announce dividend then funds start to buy in.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
11-Nov-2022 16:15
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YZJF has 2 threads. Posters in this particular thread have tend to provide rationals in their messages/analysis, which have been valuable unlike the other thread which seems can' t wait to see YZJF goes to zero. Well, until recently it seems that this thread also started to attract posters who doesn' t seem to even know fundamental of how the company work. For example, keep asking for ' announcement of dividend' , and implied that the absent of which mean the company talk cock and can' t be taken seriously. I mean, an investor would know that they already announced the committment of paying our 40% eps but this has to be done only until end of FY. Some said YZJF is in banking business. Some said many bad loan (hello, only 1% non PL ok). They also singled out single day' s price movement to ' spin' stories, like today whole market up but YZJF didn' t move (so lousy, no good, bad company?) but fact remain a lot of companies also didn' t move. True, admittedly YZJF is not in limelight now but as the thread title suggests, it is has potential to be rewarding. Just look at YZJS, at one point also out of favour but since the confirmation of good business prospects, the share price has reacted accordingly. For YZJF, this would come soonest at the end of 1st FY and if not, maybe 2-3 years down the road. I mean, if ones want to call it quit now and sell off, it is ones' perogative to do so. Share with us the reasons and we will be appreciative but mindless ' shouting' , talking down the stock [eg, 20 cents!, no reason given] are useless comments.  | ||||
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blizzzz
Member |
11-Nov-2022 16:11
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Even China Aviation G92, up 0.35 already with the good news of china starting to relax the international flight quarantine times. Capitaland China Trust au8u also up 0.30 today. This YZJ FH really stagnant? Face Palm  |
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blizzzz
Member |
11-Nov-2022 15:57
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China start to relax the covid policy about the international flight reducting quarantine times, triggering huge surge in their china stock market. This YZJ Fin, Dows up 1200 points, they can give reason it is USA angmoh market so not related to YZJ Fin much and their price not move. Now China stock market shoot up, this YZJ Fin still not up? LOL, Huh, so must wait indian market up? Is it? then YZJ Fin will up? |
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Hawkeye
Master |
11-Nov-2022 15:52
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When YZJFH went up, you will laugh and roll. Just wait, YZJFH will go up, YZJSB waited 12 years already, now only look good but, I bet when YZJFH go up, YZJSB will go down, same funds same BB. | ||||
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arkan1111
Veteran |
11-Nov-2022 15:26
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Not YZJ FH only also Starhub, two brothers one from PRC & one from Singapore, shameless the two.
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SuperLuckyCorn
Supreme |
11-Nov-2022 14:14
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YF8 will fly soon. SMR coming.
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ss2017.
Supreme |
11-Nov-2022 13:11
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Good analysis. Thanks.
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