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ahberngh
Master |
28-Aug-2023 09:11
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I do not know how bad is the economic slowdown in China is. But, what I want to say is one has to be careful in listening to Western media. False narratives is part of the strategy the Westerners are using to bring down China. |
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leroy55
Senior |
28-Aug-2023 08:15
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CHINA&rsquo S economy was meant to drive a third of global economic growth this year, so its dramatic slowdown in recent months is sounding alarm bells across the world. Policymakers are bracing for a hit to their economies as China&rsquo s imports of everything from construction materials to electronics slide. Caterpillar Inc. says Chinese demand for machines used on building sites is worse than previously thought. US President Joe Biden called the economic problems a &ldquo ticking time bomb.&rdquo Global investors have already pulled more than US$10 billion from China&rsquo s stock markets, with most of the selling in blue chips. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have cut their targets for Chinese equities, with the former also warning of spillover risks to the rest of the region. Asian economies are taking the biggest hit to their trade so far, along with countries in Africa. Japan reported its first drop in exports in more than two years in July after China cut back on purchases of cars and chips. Central bankers from South Korea and Thailand last week cited China&rsquo s weak recovery for downgrades to their growth forecasts. It&rsquo s not all doom-and-gloom, though. China&rsquo s slowdown will drag down global oil prices, and deflation in the country means the prices of goods being shipped around the world are falling. That&rsquo s a benefit to countries like the US and UK still battling high inflation. Some emerging markets like India also see opportunities, hoping to attract the foreign investment that may be leaving China&rsquo s shores. But as the world&rsquo s second-largest economy, a prolonged slowdown in China will hurt, rather than help, the rest of the world. An analysis from the International Monetary Fund shows how much is at stake: when China&rsquo s growth rate rises by 1 percentage point, global expansion is boosted by about 0.3 percentage points. China&rsquo s deflation &ldquo isn&rsquo t such a bad thing&rdquo for the global economy, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist BCA Research, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. &ldquo But, if the rest of the world, the US and Europe, falls into recession, if China remains weak, then that would be a problem &ndash not just for China but for the whole global economy.&rdquo Here&rsquo s a look at how China&rsquo s slowdown is rippling across economies and financial markets. Trade slump Many countries, especially those in Asia, count China as their biggest export market for everything from electronic parts and food to metals and energy. The value of Chinese imports has fallen for nine of the last 10 months as demand retreats from the record highs set during the pandemic. The value of shipments from Africa, Asia and North America were all lower in July than they were a year ago. Africa and Asia have been the hardest hit, with the value of imports down more than 14 per cent in the first seven months this year. Part of that is due to a drop in demand for electronics parts from South Korea and Taiwan, while falling prices of commodities such as fossil fuels are also hitting the value of goods shipped to China. So far, the actual volume of commodities such as iron or copper ore sent to China has held up. But if the slowdown continues, shipments could be impacted, which would affect miners in Australia, South America and elsewhere around the world. Deflation pressure Producer prices in China have contracted for the past 10 months, meaning the cost of goods being shipped from the country is falling. That&rsquo s welcome news for people around the globe still struggling with high inflation. The price of Chinese goods at US docks has fallen every month this year and that is likely to continue until factory prices in China return to positive territory. Economists at Wells Fargo & Co. estimate that a &lsquo hard landing&rsquo in China &ndash which they define as a 12.5 per cent divergence from its trend growth &ndash would cut the baseline forecast for US consumer inflation in 2025 by 0.7 percentage points to 1.4 per cent. Slow tourism Rebound Chinese consumers are spending more on services, like travel and tourism, than on goods &ndash but they&rsquo re not yet venturing overseas in large numbers. Until recently the government had banned group tours to many countries and there is still a lack of flights, meaning it&rsquo s much more expensive to travel than it was before the pandemic. The pandemic and weak economy have curbed incomes in China, while the years-long housing market slump means homeowners feel less wealthy than before. That suggests it may take a long time for overseas travel to rebound to the levels they were at before the pandemic, hitting tourism-dependent nations in South-east Asia such as Thailand. Currency impact China&rsquo s economic woes have pushed the currency down more than 5 per cent against the dollar this year, with the yuan close to breaching the 7.3 mark this month. The central bank has escalated its defense of the yuan through various measures including its daily currency fixings. The depreciation in the offshore yuan is having a greater impact on its peers in Asia, Latin America and the Central and Eastern Europe bloc, Bloomberg data show, with the correlation of the Chinese currency to some others rising. The weak sentiment spillover may weigh on currencies like the Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and Mexican peso as correlations rise, according to Barclays Bank Plc. &ldquo With the weaker China economy it&rsquo s very difficult to be optimistic on the Asian economies and currencies and we&rsquo re more concerned about the metal-exposed currencies,&rdquo said Magdalena Polan, head of emerging market macro research at PGIM. Weakness in the construction sector may see currencies of commodity-led economies, such as the Chilean peso and South African rand, suffer, she said. The Australian dollar, which often trades as a proxy for China, has lost more than 3 per cent this quarter, the worst performer in the Group-of-10 basket. Bonds lose appeal China&rsquo s interest rate cuts this year have reduced the appeal of its bonds to foreign investors, who have cut their exposure to the market and are looking for alternatives in the rest of the region. Overseas holdings of Chinese sovereign notes are at the lowest share of the total market since 2019, according to Bloomberg calculations. Global funds had turned more bullish on the local currency bonds of South Korea and Indonesia as central banks there near the end of their interest-rate hiking cycles. Luxury stocks Companies from Nike to Caterpillar have reported a hit to their earnings from China&rsquo s slowdown. An MSCI index that tracks global companies with the biggest exposure to China has retreated 9.3 per cent this month, nearly double the decline in the broader gauge of world stocks. A gauge of European luxury goods and Thailand travel and leisure also track losses to China&rsquo s onshore equity benchmark. The sectors are &ldquo accurate reflections of how global investors may take indirect exposure to China and the outlook as China&rsquo s economy continues to weigh,&rdquo said Redmond Wong, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Hong Kong. Luxury goods firms such as Louis Vuitton bags-maker LVMH, Gucci-owner Kering SA and Hermes International are particularly vulnerable to any wobbles in Chinese demand. BLOOMBERG
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piscesmonkey
Supreme |
24-Aug-2023 13:04
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Nice start to move up liao | ||||
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piscesmonkey
Supreme |
24-Aug-2023 09:56
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👍
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tccroy
Master |
24-Aug-2023 09:50
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You have my support
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piscesmonkey
Supreme |
24-Aug-2023 09:36
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Chiong up above 40cents today will be recovery back to 450 | ||||
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piscesmonkey
Supreme |
23-Aug-2023 14:27
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bought 380. since like price in already. wait for rebound | ||||
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behonest
Member |
23-Aug-2023 08:47
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who recommend you to buy this stock> ?
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FrancisLim
Elite |
23-Aug-2023 08:40
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Analysts at JP Morgan remain bearish on the RMB:
The PBOC is not standing in the way of a weaker yuan, they are however trying to slow the pace of the drop
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alfredx
Senior |
22-Aug-2023 17:35
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If you read clearly what the analysis mention , upside is better contribute from the mini Hydroplants, downside is China lockdown , slowdown blah blah blah.. yesterday the Isdn investor the dialogue I expected this report come ..
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tccroy
Master |
22-Aug-2023 17:29
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Yes agree. You need to have your own judgement. Do not read too much on their comment. It is like 被 他 们 拉 着 鼻 子 走 。 After all they are not god. They comment is for their own personal purposes.
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alfredx
Senior |
22-Aug-2023 16:43
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If you believe and listen to your analysis then sell lo.. they happily said buy last time.. happily cut and sell now.. lol
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like2learn
Veteran |
22-Aug-2023 16:15
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bbq liao loh .... cimb target price $0.36, price is lower than book value !!?? profitable company but valued at below book value, why like dat ???? *faint* wl,wl,wl ... this time stuck again for another dunno how many years .... *cry* https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=dd834049-73aa-4381-8a1e-01cbd5cee96b& rpt=00EF7594-5953-BDED-2CE4-B04A08DE29A9 |
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FrancisLim
Elite |
22-Aug-2023 16:02
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No problem. Apparently, the Co also dont get it. Talk to one of the major banks in Singapore. This is not something new.
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hypewhy
Member |
22-Aug-2023 15:41
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dont make sense , mr baba
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FrancisLim
Elite |
21-Aug-2023 17:00
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The foreign exchange losses be it realized or translation are due to the Co' s postion of not hedging. That is the cost of not hedging. Hedging instruments are readily available - any major banks in Singapore will be able to provide the solution. The Co could do cash flow hedging - using non deliverale instruments.. be it ndfx, currency swaps etc. Not to hedge and suffering the fx losses, is the cost of the dceision of not hedging. Of course, strict policy and controls need to e in place to ensure that they are cash flow or capital hedges and not speculation. |
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Neutral_Guy
Member |
16-Aug-2023 15:30
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I will start to see or buy when the price is 0.25cents hahaha. | ||||
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Pro_trader
Member |
15-Aug-2023 19:00
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China' s numbers look so bad that they decide to stop reporting on youth unemployment. All the kumgongs who still want to believe chinese numbers and use that as a basis for analysing ISDN? Did someone say have 10 reliable sources that china bottoming? A wolf will always tell the sheep that it is a kind wolf. |
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tccroy
Master |
15-Aug-2023 07:18
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We still have to go on with our lives. Nothing is more scary than gena cancer.
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Pro_trader
Member |
14-Aug-2023 19:08
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https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3231005/risk-chinas-financial-sector-laid-bare-state-backed-trust-firm-misses-us19-million-wealth-management This is going to be a big big problem. |
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