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MrBear12
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25-Jun-2024 18:36
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Open Trades S/N Section Description Investment Idea 1. Equity Dell Technologies Initiate buy trade 2. Equity Qualcomm (QCOM US) & Micron (MU US) Consider fixed coupon note 3. Equity Dell (DELL US) & Apple (AAPL US) Consider fixed coupon note 4. FX GBP/AUD Bearish 5. FX XAU/USD Bullish 6. Funds Signature CIO Growth Fund Select Flash Some trading ideas. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
25-Jun-2024 17:52
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Adapting to shifting winds The start of major central bank rate cuts marks a key turning point for investors as policymakers switch their focus towards supporting growth. We see it as a good time to adapt to these shifting winds by (i) staying Overweight equities over bonds and cash, (ii) favouring US equities globally and Indian equities in Asia and (iii) owning gold and Emerging Market (EM) USD bonds as diversifiers. In this environment, balanced foundation allocations comprising equities, bonds and alternative assets are likely to outperform allocations that are solely aimed at generating income. Our opportunistic allocations continue to favour growth sectors in the US, a barbell-like strategy in Europe and select government policy beneficiaries in China. This is according to Standard chartered market views. I' m going back to island living tmr, no electricity at night, so will not be posting often. |
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MrBear12
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19-Jun-2024 14:02
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Policy turning too tight? US disinflation continues, but the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates until it sees further signs of easing prices. We believe the Fed is being cautious lest it loosens financial conditions prematurely. We expect disinflation to continue over the coming months as official shelter inflation catches up with already declining market rents. Sustained disinflation would make US policy too tight, likely leading the Fed to start cutting rates in H2 as it turns its focus towards supporting growth. Combined with a robust outlook for US corporate earnings and strong technicals, Fed rate cuts are likely to support US equity outperformance, especially the technology and communication services sectors vs. global equities this year. According to standard chartered outlook. |
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MrBear12
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14-Jun-2024 07:58
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This article is republished with permission from Dollars And Sense . 12-Jun Share!  This article was written in collaboration with Nikko Asset Management. All views expressed in this article are the independent opinion of DollarsAndSense.sg based on our research. DollarsAndSense.sg is not liable for any financial losses that may arise from any transactions and readers are encouraged to do their own due diligence. You can view our full editorial policy here. In the investment world, stocks often command more attention compared to bonds. This is because stocks, which represent ownership in a company, can have their value increase or decline significantly based on how well the company is doing. This potential for high returns?or significant losses?makes stocks particularly appealing to many investors. Conversely, bonds are generally perceived as a safer investment compared to stocks. Bonds are loans that investors give to a bond issuer, which could be a company or a government entity. In return, there is a promise of regular interest payments, also known as coupon payments. These payments are fixed and do not change regardless of the bond issuer' s financial performance. Thus, even if a company excels, the interest it pays on the bonds that it has already issued will remain the same. Similarly, if a company struggles or incurs losses, it is still obligated to make these predetermined interest payments and to repay the principal amount at the bond' s maturity. However, the appeal of bonds extends beyond their reputation as a safer investment compared to stocks. Even investors who are inclined towards higher risk and potentially higher returns should consider the strategic benefits of including bonds in their portfolio. Here are three good reasons why we think investors should consider adding a bond exposure to their investment portfolio. #1 Bonds Provide Stable, Passive IncomeFor many investors, generating passive income from their investments is important. Passive income can be used to cover expenses, reducing reliance on employment income. Bonds are a reliable source of stable passive income due to their fixed interest payments. When we invest in a bond, we are lending money to the bond issuer, who, in turn, pays us periodic interest payments, known as coupon payments. Typically, bonds pay interest semi-annually, annually, or in some cases, quarterly. The interest rate, or coupon rate, is usually fixed at the time of issuance. For example, if we purchase a $1,000 bond with a 5% annual coupon rate, we will receive $50 in interest each year. In addition to the interest payments, we also receive the principal amount, or face value, of the bond back when it reaches its maturity date. This repayment is in addition to the regular interest payments received over the bond&rsquo s term. While stocks can also provide passive income via dividends, it is important to recognise that dividend payments are not mandatory. A company has the discretion to reinvest its profits back into the business or retain its profits. In contrast, bond issuers are legally obliged to pay out interest payments in the form of coupons. This obligation makes bonds a more dependable source of passive income compared to stocks. #2 Inverse Correlation Between Stocks & Bonds Help Reduce Portfolio RiskEven for those of us who invest primarily in stocks, having bond exposure can be valuable for our investment portfolio. This is due to the concept of inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. Inverse correlation means that during periods of economic growth, when stock prices tend to increase more quickly, bond returns could be lower. Conversely, during economic downturns or recessions, corporate profits may decline, and the stock market often becomes more volatile and less attractive. During such times, investors seek safer investments, making bonds a favourable option. This increased demand for bonds drives up their prices. By having both stock and bond exposure in their portfolio, investors can reduce their overall portfolio risk and limit their losses, as these assets provide a natural hedge for each other. Bonds&rsquo stability and fixed interest payments offer a counterbalance to the volatility and potential high returns of stocks, creating a more resilient and balanced investment strategy. #3 Higher Interest Rate Environment Favour Bonds Over StocksThe interest rate environment can significantly influence the attractiveness of bond investments. When interest rates are high, it becomes more expensive for companies to borrow and expand their business, making stock investing less attractive. Conversely, higher interest rates mean that new bonds will be issued with higher coupon rates, making them more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. For example, in the current market environment, the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) is currently setting its interest rate for Federal Funds at 5.25% to 5.50%. Given that the Fed offers such attractive returns, it is unsurprising that many investors would prefer to invest in these relatively risk-free government bonds rather than attempting to earn a higher return in the stock market. This is why a higher interest rate environment tends to favour bonds over stocks. As investors, we need to be aware of how changing financial markets can affect our investment returns and make informed investment decisions that will ensure the continuous growth of our portfolios. The right allocation between stocks and bonds can help us achieve our long-term investment goals by balancing risk and return effectively. By including bonds in our portfolio, we can create a more resilient portfolio that can withstand various economic conditions. Diversification Is Vital When Investing In BondsBy now, most of us recognise the importance of diversification when investing in stocks. However, when it comes to investing in bonds, diversification is even more vital. Unlike stocks, where there is a chance of investing in companies that can generate exceptionally high returns, bond investments do not offer outsized returns. Instead, bond investments aim to generate stable income through coupon payments, ensure the return on initial capital, and build a portfolio that can perform well during both good and bad times. Therefore, it is crucial not to invest all our funds into just one or two bonds. Given the high minimum amount often required to invest in individual retail bonds, diversifying our bond investments can be challenging. This is where bond ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) can play an important role in helping us gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds. For example, on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), we can invest in bond ETFs such as the ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund. Managed by Nikko Asset Management (Nikko AM), the ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund invests in bonds issued by the Singapore government. Investing in such bond ETFs allows us to achieve diversification with a lower investment threshold, thereby reducing risk and enhancing the stability of our investment portfolio. 
Factsheet April 2024, ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund
Factsheet April 2024, Nikko AM SGD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
Please refer to the prospectus of the ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund and the Nikko AM SGD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF for further information of its investment risks. It&rsquo s important to note that investors should carefully consider these risks and conduct their own research before investing in any bond ETF. Investors should also assess their own investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to determine if bond ETFs are a suitable investment for their portfolio. * weighted average duration (years) measures the bond fund' s price sensitivity to interest rate changes. Generally, the higher the weighted average duration of a bond fund, the more its price will be affected by interest rate changes. Expanding Investment Opportunities with ETFs Beyond just bond ETFs, there are other ETFs managed by Nikko AM that we can consider for our investment portfolio. These include stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which can also contribute to a well-rounded investment strategy. By including various types of ETFs, investors can enhance their portfolio diversification, balancing risk and return across different asset classes. Read Also: Why Regular Savings Plans (RSP) Make Sense If You Are Starting Your Investment Journey In 2024 Important Information by Nikko Asset Management Asia Limited: This document is purely for informational purposes only with no consideration given to the specific investment objective, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person. It should not be relied upon as financial advice. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. You should seek advice from a financial adviser before making any investment. In the event that you choose not to do so, you should consider whether the investment selected is suitable for you. Investments in funds are not deposits in, obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Nikko Asset Management Asia Limited (" Nikko AM Asia" ).
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MrBear12
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14-Jun-2024 07:54
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Insight Article Feed - Latest Stock Market News (sharejunction.com) www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/insightArticle.htm?id=0& %20s=2
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MrBear12
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14-Jun-2024 07:52
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In conjunction with Dollars and Sense and Share Junction, we offer here a look at Bonds starting with Singapore Bonds as recommended by an article here on Share Junction (12 June 2024). Have a good look. Insight Article Feed - Latest Stock Market News (sharejunction.com) |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
10-Jun-2024 05:15
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Here I am on an island the size of ubin and tekong combined, with some 20 villages. A small shop in the village stocks only basic essentials like oil, rice, flour and soap. The shop is like a car park booth. Things are almost double what it is on the mainland because of freight charges. No electricity provided unless solar or diesel generator is available. So we go about in the dark at nite. Farming is main source of livelihood. A different world altogether. | |||||
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MrBear12
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01-Jun-2024 18:29
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I have dbs. But I also have ocbc and BOC. Used to have hsbc also. So It is important to have a few banks and not one only.
And we can also have both dbs and the finance etf. Really up to our risk tolerance. |
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MrBear12
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01-Jun-2024 18:17
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Spread your risk across the banks.
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MrBear12
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01-Jun-2024 18:16
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I'd go for etf. For the purpose of Diversification.
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MrBear12sfan
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01-Jun-2024 18:13
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Hi MrBear, am considering between DBS and Lion-OCBC APAC FIN Etf. Was hoping DBS pullback on XB but didnt happen, while the ETF is still relatively new. Cant decide. Will appreciate your views.
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MrBear12
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01-Jun-2024 17:15
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For the retail sector, it seems to me that the investing community is recommending shipping stocks like YZJ and Seatrium. These can be picked up at fair valuations with upside potential in the coming years when shipping industry is booming. Banks also look to do well this year and OCBC together with DBS are the top picks. Large cap reits > 10Bn are also good potential at least from MrBear' s limited perspective. Enjoy the excitement of stock picking, or just buy the whole stock market in an ETF. This is a time for investing. In fact, we should always be saving and investing. How else do we have industries?
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MrBear12
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18-May-2024 07:48
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To everyone on SJ and beyond.
Please have a relook at the five previous posts here. You will find valuable insights that will help us all invest wisely. These analyses were done by the investment team at DBS. They help all investors, esp. HNW ones do their investment. I flag them up here for you to stock up on your shop. May it stay open for as long as there is time for trading. God bless all you shop keepers. Sell useful stuff and things that last. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
05-May-2024 19:14
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On equities, stay with profitable companies with deep economic moats. These may include sectors that are non-tech related, as we see the market broadening into other sectors, in particular, energy and healthcare.
In this publication, we reiterate our call on quality Big Tech. Additionally, we dive into the various strategies within private markets, as well as the approach to fully capture the benefits of investing in private equity and debt within a well-diversified portfolio. Want to know more can read a downloaded report from dbs cio 2q 2024 insights available at the following website. Highlite the whole address below and open. https://www.dbs.com.sg/corporate/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/CIO/032024/CIOInsights2Q24.xml# |
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MrBear12
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05-May-2024 18:54
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DBS view recap Base case scenario of US economy soft landing & gradual rate cuts constructive for bonds & equities Bonds over cash - Stay with IG bonds, with average portfolio duration within 3-5 years Equity rally to broaden, with laggard sectors of energy and healthcare to benefit Gold continues to offer favourable risk-reward. Tailwinds include lower rates and US dollar weakness |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
05-May-2024 18:46
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What is Yield Gap?
The Yield Gap is the difference between the yields of government-issued securities and the average dividend yield on stock shares. In other words, the yield gap, or the yield gap ratio, is the ratio of the dividend yield on equity compared to the yield on long-term government bonds. The yield gap is calculated to determine whether equity is underpriced or overpriced compared to government bonds. The smaller the yield gap, the lower the equity yield is compared to government bonds, indicating that equity is overpriced. Conversely, the higher the yield gap, the greater the yield on equity is compared to government bonds, indicating that equity is relatively underpriced. As mentioned by dbs cio, Preference for Bonds: We prefer bonds over stocks that pay dividends because they offer a good balance of risk and reward. Stick with A/BBB investment grade corporate bonds, but also consider some BB+ rated credits in the 3-5 year duration segment. The reason for this view is the falling yield gap ratio i.e. the ratio of the dividend yield on equity compared to the yield on long-term government bonds. |
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MrBear12
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05-May-2024 12:16
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May I emphasize along with dbs cio,
as long as inflation remains stable... ... Looking ahead, both stocks and bonds seem like good investments, as long as inflation remains stable. Our CIO advises investors to stay invested and deploy any extra cash in well-balanced diversified portfolios. It's crucial to diversify your investment portfolio to protect against potential losses. What some of us have been saying in SJ all along. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
04-May-2024 12:49
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For May Spring sale, I recommend the following
In 2023, DBS Chief Investment Officer (CIO) suggested that investors put their money into investments, and it's been paying off into 1Q24. Risk assets have continued to rally, despite the Fed?s reluctance in declaring victory in its inflation fight. A big part of this strength is due to the job market being strong and wages increasing. This has led to improved investor sentiment. Because of this, the Federal Reserve isn?t planning to make any big changes to its policies until at least May. Some specific types of investments have done well recently. Technology and AI companies, as well as luxury brands, have made big gains. Gold performed well too. Even bonds, being an interest-rate sensitive asset class, still earned interest income of more than 5% per year. Looking ahead, both stocks and bonds seem like good investments, as long as inflation remains stable. Our CIO advises investors to stay invested and deploy any extra cash in well-balanced diversified portfolios. It's crucial to diversify your investment portfolio to protect against potential losses. 1. Preference for Bonds: We prefer bonds over stocks that pay dividends because they offer a good balance of risk and reward. Stick with A/BBB investment grade corporate bonds, but also consider some BB+ rated credits in the 3-5 year duration segment. 2. Equities Strategy: When it comes to stocks, look for companies that have a strong position in their industries. Beyond the tech sector, look for opportunities in areas such as energy and healthcare. 3. Gold and Diversification: Investing in gold can help your portfolio stay strong during uncertain times. This will give you more options and could improve your returns while managing risk. |
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MrBear12
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17-Apr-2024 23:03
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Looks like there will be another day of the post Hari Raya sale. Genuine buyers may look up some badly sold down counters in an effort called bargain hunting. We may not be able to physically ' bargain' with sellers. But we know that some are fearful and may sell to buyers at prices not ideal for sellers. When does this happen? During market turbulence. Buyers can take their time. Always never hurry to buy. Look see look see. Very often you can get cheaper by the day, even for good stocks, during a sale. But I won' t recommend any pennies. Most of them stay pennies and rise only temporarily to the heights before plunging forever back into oblivion. |
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MrBear12
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17-Apr-2024 14:02
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Farmers practice what they call crop rotation. Shop keepers practice stock rotation. I do not mean changing the orientation of a stock on a shelf, but buying other kinds of stocks with profits from old stocks.
Crop rotation is the practice of growing a series of different types of crops in the same area across a sequence of growing seasons. This practice reduces the reliance of crops on one set of nutrients, pest and weed pressure, along with the probability of developing resistant pests and weeds. Stock rotation is similar in that we rotate into laggards and neglected stocks in order to take profits and reinvest in other stocks with potential - a form of capital recycling. Diversification and less reliance on 'saturated' stocks is the aim of this exercise. The principle is that every stoxk has its season and that every dog has its day Trade with rotational plays |
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