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hong leong s city deveopment
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chartistkaohz
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25-Mar-2025 14:24
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https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2986393/thaksin-among-dream-team-to-advise-sovereign-fund-danantara-indonesia
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
24-Mar-2025 15:47
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Yes, Singapore?s property market went through multiple corrections between 1985 and 2005, and those who bought at the peak with high leverage suffered. Interest rates were much higher then, often exceeding 7%, making mortgage repayments a heavy burden, especially during economic downturns when job losses were widespread.
The 1985 recession was particularly severe, triggered by a sharp slowdown in global trade and Singapore?s over-reliance on manufacturing. Property prices collapsed, and many who had bought homes at high valuations struggled with repayments. A similar situation happened during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the early 2000s recession after the dot-com bust and SARS outbreak.
This history is why Singapore?s government introduced cooling measures, such as the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and Additional Buyer?s Stamp Duty (ABSD), to prevent excessive speculation and borrowing. But even with these safeguards, rising interest rates or a deep recession could still put stress on homeowners.
Do you think Singapore?s current property cycle could see a similar sharp correction, or do you believe government policies will prevent extreme crashes?
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chartistkao3
Elite |
24-Mar-2025 06:17
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https://www.ft.com/content/c02df9e1-10e0-4dfa-a3b5-0477cce3b98c?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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chartistkao3
Elite |
24-Mar-2025 06:16
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https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/five-charts-that-show-how-donald-trump-clattered-global-markets-sn0nzhlkj?utm_source=chatgpt.com& region=global
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chartistkao3
Elite |
24-Mar-2025 06:12
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Recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly the imposition of tariffs on major trading partners, have led to a notable shift in market sentiment. For the first time since President Donald Trump' s election, speculative traders in the $7.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market have turned bearish on the U.S. dollar. This shift is largely attributed to concerns over rising inflation and a potential slowdown in the American economy resulting from these tariffs. Latest news & breaking headlines The U.S. dollar has experienced a 4% decline in value, reflecting diminishing confidence in its status as the primary reserve currency. This depreciation has influenced various currency pairs, including the USD/SGD (U.S. dollar to Singapore dollar), which is currently trading at 1.3359. Latest news & breaking headlines+1Financial Times+1 Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as the evolving trade policies and their economic implications could lead to further volatility in the currency markets.
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chartistkaohz
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21-Mar-2025 14:25
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CDL的 股 价 曾 经 跌 到 低 于 净 资 产 值 ( NTA) 50%, 理 论 上 这 是 一 个 很 有 吸 引 力 的 估 值 水 平 。 但 市 场 对 它 的 低 估 可 能 反 映 了 几 个 关 键 风 险 和 挑 战 , 使 得 投 资 者 在 便 宜 时 仍 然 犹 豫 :
1. 高 杠 杆 与 资 产 负 担
负 债 水 平 较 高 : CDL为 了 扩 展 海 外 业 务 ( 如 中 国 、 英 国 ) 投 入 了 大 量 资 金 , 导 致 财 务 杠 杆 较 重 。
流 动 性 问 题 : 相 比 资 产 管 理 模 式 的 CapitaLand Investment, CDL的 物 业 开 发 模 式 需 要 持 续 投 入 资 金 , 短 期 市 场 低 迷 会 影 响 现 金 流 。
2. 海 外 投 资 表 现 不 佳
中 国 市 场 风 险 : CDL在 中 国 房 地 产 市 场 投 入 了 较 大 资 金 , 但 中 国 房 地 产 市 场 自 2021年 开 始 低 迷 , 加 上 政 府 对 开 发 商 的 融 资 限 制 , 导 致 CDL的 中 国 投 资 面 临 挑 战 。
英 国 资 产 减 值 : CDL曾 在 英 国 酒 店 和 办 公 楼 市 场 大 举 投 资 , 但 脱 欧 +高 利 率 导 致 资 产 价 格 下 滑 , 公 司 需 计 提 减 值 损 失 。
3. 家 族 企 业 治 理 与 资 本 配 置
家 族 决 策 主 导 : CDL由 郭 氏 家 族 控 制 , 投 资 决 策 有 时 受 到 家 族 战 略 的 影 响 , 未 必 完 全 以 市 场 最 佳 回 报 为 优 先 。
收 购 策 略 激 进 : 例 如 , CDL曾 斥 资 近 8亿 新 元 收 购 中 国 的 Sincere Property( 诚 通 地 产 ) , 但 这 笔 投 资 最 终 成 为 巨 大 的 财 务 负 担 。 市 场 担 忧 CDL未 来 可 能 继 续 进 行 类 似 的 激 进 投 资 。
4. 资 本 市 场 对 开 发 商 的 折 价
发 展 商 vs 资 产 管 理 公 司 : 相 比 CapitaLand Investment( 资 产 管 理 模 式 ) , CDL仍 然 是 传 统 的 房 地 产 开 发 商 , 盈 利 较 为 周 期 性 , 且 开 发 商 通 常 比 资 产 管 理 公 司 享 有 更 低 的 估 值 溢 价 。
高 息 环 境 影 响 : 在 高 利 率 环 境 下 , 开 发 商 融 资 成 本 上 升 , 而 租 赁 型 资 产 ( 如 REITs) 更 受 投 资 者 青 睐 , 因 此 CDL股 价 一 直 受 压 。
总 结 : 为 什 么 市 场 仍 然 不 愿 意 给 CDL更 高 估 值 ?
高 负 债 +海 外 投 资 失 利 , 拖 累 盈 利 能 力
郭 氏 家 族 控 制 , 投 资 决 策 透 明 度 较 低
市 场 对 传 统 地 产 开 发 模 式 的 折 价
高 利 率 环 境 不 利 于 高 杠 杆 公 司
CDL的 股 价 便 宜 , 但 市 场 担 心 的 问 题 还 没 有 完 全 解 决 。 如 果 这 些 因 素 改 善 , 比 如 降 低 杠 杆 、 提 高 资 本 回 报 率 、 改 善 海 外 资 产 盈 利 能 力 , CDL的 估 值 才 可 能 回 归 更 合 理 水 平 。
你 会 考 虑 在 这 个 低 估 值 水 平 买 入 CDL, 还 是 更 倾 向 于 政 府 支 持 的 CapitaLand Investment?
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
21-Mar-2025 13:10
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CapitaLand Investment (CLI) and City Developments Limited (CDL) have distinct ownership structures and strategic approaches:
CapitaLand Investment (CLI) ? Government-Controlled
CLI is Temasek-backed, meaning it has government-linked ownership.
It focuses on real estate investment management, with a strong emphasis on fund management and lodging businesses.
It has significant assets under management (AUM), including private funds and REITs, making it more of an asset-light model compared to traditional developers.
CLI benefits from government support and access to capital, but this also means it may operate with broader strategic objectives beyond just maximizing shareholder returns.
The company was restructured from CapitaLand in 2021, separating its development arm (which went private under Temasek) and focusing CLI purely on investment and fund management.
City Developments Limited (CDL) ? Kwek Family-Controlled
CDL is family-controlled, with the Kwek family (Hong Leong Group) holding a strong ownership stake.
It operates as a traditional real estate developer, with investments in residential, commercial, and hospitality sectors.
CDL has a more entrepreneurial and market-driven approach, sometimes taking on higher-risk projects (e.g., its struggling investment in China).
The company?s performance is closely tied to the Kwek family?s decisions, which can sometimes lead to aggressive expansion or controversial investments (such as its UK and China ventures).
Unlike CLI, CDL is not asset-light it has a substantial development pipeline and direct property holdings.
Key Differences
Which is Better?
For stability and dividend income: CLI is more attractive, given its asset-light model, recurring fee income, and government backing.
For higher risk-reward potential: CDL could provide better upside if its property developments and international ventures succeed, but it also carries more volatility.
Are you considering an investment in either?
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
21-Mar-2025 09:53
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19 Mar 2025
Share
Ping An Reports Stable Growth in Operating Profit Attributable to Shareholders of the Parent Company in 2024, Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders of the Parent Company Surges 47.8% YoY
Cash Dividend Increases for 13th Consecutive Year
(Hong Kong, Shanghai, March 19, 2025) Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (hereafter ?Ping An? or the ?Group?, HKEX: 2318 SSE: 601318) today announced its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024.
In 2024, China?s domestic economy was generally stable with a positive long-term economic outlook. However, China still faced short- and medium-term challenges including lackluster domestic demand, volatile markets, and insufficient confidence amid a complex and uncertain external environment. Facing the opportunities and challenges, Ping An adhered to a people-centered approach and focused on its core financial businesses, pushing forward its technology-enabled ?integrated finance + health and senior care? dual-driver strategy. With solid fundamentals and rebounding core businesses, Ping An achieved high-quality development characterized by steady progress, deepened strategy, and reform and innovation.
Ping An?s operating profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased 9.1% year on year to RMB121,862 million and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose 47.8% year on year to RMB126,607 million in 2024. Revenue was RMB1,141,346 million, up 10.6% year on year. Ping An plans to pay a final dividend of RMB1.62 per share in cash for 2024. The full-year cash dividend will be RMB2.55 per share, up 5% year on year. The cash dividend payout ratio based on operating profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company will be 37.9%, with total dividends increasing for 13 consecutive years.
In addition, according to the announcement by the Board of Directors of Ping An, the tenures of Mr. Ng Sing Yip, Mr. Chu Yiyun and Mr. Liu Hong as Independent Non-executive Directors are coming to an end, and Mr. Hong Xiaoyuan (?Mr. Hong?), Mr. Song Xianzhong (?Mr. Song?) and Mr. Chan Hiu Fung Nicholas (?Mr. Chan?) have been nominated as candidates for Independent Non-executive Directors of the 13th session of the Board. Mr. Hong is a Senior Economist, previously served as Assistant to General Manager of China Merchants Group Limited and General Manager of China Merchants Finance Holdings Company Limited. Mr. Hong is currently a member of Hong Kong Chief Executive?s Policy Unit Expert Group and the Chairman of Supervisory Committee of China Reform Foundation. Mr. Song holds a Doctorate degree in Public Finance. He is currently an Executive Director of the Accounting Society of China and a former President of Jinan University. Mr. Chan is a qualified solicitor. He is currently a Deputy of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to the National People?s Congress and also a member of the Hong Kong Chief Executive?s Policy Unit Expert Group. The proposed appointments shall become effective upon the approval from the shareholders at the annual general meeting and the National Financial Regulatory Administration.
Ping An continued to strengthen its ?integrated finance + health and senior care? strategy. The Group has built financial solutions of ?one customer, multiple accounts, multiple products, and one-stop services.? In this way, Ping An delivers ?worry-free, time-saving, and money-saving? service experience to customers, driving continuous growth in the number of retail customers, contracts per customer and profit per customer. The number of Ping An?s retail customers was 242 million as of December 31, 2024, up 4.7% from the beginning of the year. 25.6% of them held four or more contracts within the Group, with a retention rate of 98.0%. Nearly 63% of Ping An?s 242 million retail customers were entitled to service benefits in the health and senior care ecosystem as of December 31, 2024. Customers entitled to service benefits in the health and senior care ecosystem contributed about 70% of Ping An Life?s NBV.
Self-developed vertical large AI models enabled the accelerating development of the ecosystems. Ping An focused on developing core technologies and securing proprietary intellectual property rights. The Group cumulatively filed 55,080 patent applications as of December 31, 2024, leading most international financial and healthcare institutions. Ping An established its competitive moat by building industry-leading five laboratories and nine databases, and establishing a three-level large model system, further integrating large models with business application scenarios.
Building Core Competitive Moat Through the Integrated Finance Model Enhancing Customer Development.
Life & Health NBV surged and business quality improved steadily. In 2024, Life & Health NBV amounted to RMB28,534 million, up 28.8% year on year on a like-for-like basis. Ping An Life significantly improved persistency ratios in 2024, with 13-month persistency ratio up 3.6 pps year on year, and 25-month persistency ratio up 3.9 pps year on year.
Ping An Life enhanced multi-channel professional sales capabilities. The Company continued to deepen transformation and significantly improved the performance and productivity of its agency channel. In 2024, agent channel NBV on a like-for-like basis grew 26.5% year on year and NBV per agent surged 43.3% year on year. Agent income increased 5.9% to RMB10,395 per agent per month.
Bancassurance channel focused on value-driven operations with NBV rising 62.7% year on year in 2024. Operational efficiency was boosted by increasing high-quality partner outlets. Ping An Life continuously developed the community finance channel. The 13-month persistency ratio of orphan policies within community finance networks improved by 5.7 pps year on year in 2024, with NBV up by nearly 300% year on year. Ping An Life had built elite teams of nearly 24,000 ?high-competence, high-performing, and high-quality? agents as of December 31, 2024. Innovative channels including bancassurance and community finance contributed 18.7% of Ping An Life?s NBV in 2024.
?Insurance + service? offerings are gaining traction. In products, Ping An Life actively implemented China?s new ?Ten National Guidelines? for the insurance industry to meet customer demands for diverse insurance products, delved deeper into insurance protection, pension and wealth management markets, and actively built its business presence in inclusive insurance. In services, Ping An Life continuously upgraded its health and senior care service system and provided health management services to over 21 million customers in 2024. Over 160,000 customers were qualified for Ping An?s home-based senior care services, which covered 75 cities nationwide as of December 31, 2024. Ping An had unveiled premium health and senior care communities in five cities as of December 31, 2024, which are currently under construction. The communities in Shanghai and Shenzhen are scheduled to open for business in the second half of 2025.
Ping An P&C maintained steady revenue growth and good business quality. Its insurance revenue rose by 4.7% year on year to RMB328,146 million in 2024. Net profit grew by 67.7% year on year to RMB15,021 million. Overall COR was 98.3%, improved by 2.3 pps year on year in 2024. Auto insurance?s COR was 98.1%, consistently better than the market average. The Company was honored as ?No.1 Brand? in China?s auto insurance market by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for 14 consecutive years. Ping An P&C explored the new model of ?insurance + technology + service? for improving the quality and efficiency of the real economy. The Company provided RMB220 trillion worth of insurance coverage for 2.40 million small and micro-enterprises, and provided RMB9 trillion worth of insurance coverage for 69 thousand technology companies in 2024. To improve service quality and efficiency via risk reduction, Ping An P&C independently developed Digital Risk System 3.0 (?DRS 3.0?) which issued a total of 10.55 billion alerts on typhoons, rainstorms, floods and other disasters to 67.34 million retail and corporate customers in 2024.
Ping An delivered excellent insurance funds investment results, ranking among the top in the market. The Group?s insurance funds investment portfolio grew 21.4% from the beginning of 2024 to over RMB5.73 trillion as of December 31, 2024. The insurance funds investment portfolio achieved a comprehensive investment yield of 5.8% in 2024, up 2.2 pps year on year, marking a forefront of the market by investment income. Life & Health achieved a comprehensive investment yield of 6.0%, up 2.4 pps year on year. The portfolio achieved a 5.0% average net investment yield and a 5.1% average comprehensive investment yield over the past decade.
Ping An Bank maintained steady business performance and stable overall asset quality. The Bank?s net profit amounted to RMB44,508 million in 2024. It continuously served the real economy, with corporate loan balance growing 12.4% from the beginning of 2024 as of December 31, 2024. Ping An Bank continuously strengthened risk management, and maintained adequate risk provisions. Non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio were 1.06% and 250.71% respectively as of December 31, 2024. Retail AUM rose 4.0% from the beginning of 2024 to RMB4,194,074 million, and retail deposit balance grew 6.6% from the beginning of 2024 to RMB1,287,180 million as of December 31, 2024.
Promoting the Development of the Health and Senior Care Ecosystem Leveraging Differential Advantages to Empower Core Businesses.
Leveraging over ten years of operational and management experience in insurance and health care industries, Ping An enhanced the coordinated operations of business lines including insurance, health care, investment and technology. Ping An has built a service system including an online flagship medical platform and proprietary medical institutions to empower retail financial customers and corporate clients. Acting for payers and integrating providers, Ping An provides the most cost-effective health and senior care services via professional family doctors and senior care concierges.
Ping An built differential advantages thanks to remarkable progress in ?finance + health care services? and ?finance + senior care services?. The Group has developed a full-spectrum product and service system to meet customers? full-lifecycle needs. Nearly 63% of Ping An?s retail customers were entitled to service benefits in the health and senior care ecosystem as of December 31, 2024. They held approximately 3.37 contracts and RMB59.9 thousand in AUM per capita, 1.6 times and 3.8 times those held by retail customers not entitled to these service benefits respectively. In respect of ?finance + health care services?, nearly 79% of Ping An Life?s newly-enrolled customers used health management services in 2024. Ping An provides health management programs to the employees of corporate clients via ?commercial insurance + health care fund + health care service? products. Nearly 67,000 corporate clients and their 29 million plus employees were served in 2024. In respect of ?finance + senior care services?, Ping An contracted over 150 home-based senior care service providers and launched hundreds of 10-dimensional home-based senior care service benefits as of December 31, 2024. Ping An continuously built the alliances centering on ?medical care, nursing, housing and entertainment,? the four major senior care scenarios. The model meets different senior groups? home-based care needs under a standard product and service framework.
Ping An developed an online flagship medical platform and proprietary medical institutions to optimize ?online, in-store, in-home and in-company? services. Ping An Health (also known as Ping An Good Doctor) is an integral part of Ping An Group?s ?insurance + health care? synergistic model. The Company, centering on family doctor membership and senior care concierge services, developed a one-stop ?health and senior care? services platform. It achieved RMB4,808 million in revenue and RMB81 million in net profit in 2024. The number of ?Ping An Family Doctor? members exceeded 14 million, with an average of five uses per member in 2024. PKU Healthcare Group?s revenue continued to grow to approximately RMB5.51 billion in 2024. Peking University International Hospital?s revenue exceeded RMB2.48 billion. In partner networks, Ping An partnered with all top 100 hospitals and 3A hospitals, over 104,000 health management institutions, and approximately 235,000 pharmacies (over 35% of all pharmacies) in China as of December 31, 2024. Ping An had one of the world?s largest health care databases, enabled precise diagnosis of over 5,000 diseases, and proactively built a leading remote consultation and treatment platform as of December 31, 2024.
Customer-Oriented, Self-Developed Vertical Large AI Models Enabled Ecosystem Development.
Technology enabled finance, health and senior care ecosystems and advanced digital transformation. Ping An cumulatively won 30 championships in domestic and overseas AI competitions and cumulatively filed 55,080 patent applications as of December 31, 2024, leading most international financial institutions. Ping An accumulated vast amounts of data that can be used to train large models, and continuously developed vertical large models for domains including finance, health and senior care. With 30 trillion bytes of data, a domain data corpus containing 3.2 trillion tokens, approximately 310 thousand hours of labeled speeches and over 7.5 billion images, Ping An?s large speech models, large language models, and large vision models have achieved industry-leading accuracy rates in scenarios. Ping An?s three financial databases and five health care databases rank among the world?s largest financial and health care databases. Digging deep into business scenarios, Ping An accelerated the development of its ecosystems by extensively applying its large models to 85 scenarios across the Group to support the ?integrate finance + health and senior care? strategy.
In digital finance, technology enabled finance business by improving efficiency, cutting costs and managing risks. The volume of services provided by Ping An?s AI service representatives reached about 1.84 billion times, accounting for 80% of Ping An?s total customer service volume in 2024. Via smart underwriting, smart claim settlement, and smart renewal, 93% of Ping An Life?s policies were underwritten within seconds. 56% of life insurance claims were settled through Smart Quick Claim, and 27% more life insurance policies were reinstated. Claims savings of Ping An P&C via smart fraud detection grew 10.4% year on year to RMB11.94 billion as Ping An continuously strengthened risk management. In respect of health care, Ping An delivered China?s leading health and senior care solutions via digital enablement. Ping An Health built a large multi-modal model and 12 AI-driven models. These initiatives promoted whole-process AI enablement in medical business scenarios, improving the service efficiency of ?Ping An Family Doctor? by about 62%. Ping An Health independently developed an AI-based medical system, with medical expertise covering over 2,000 diseases, an AI-powered recommendation accuracy rate of 99%, and an assisted diagnosis accuracy rate above 95%.
Ping An rode on the green development trend and fulfilled its social responsibilities actively. As of December 31, 2024, the Group?s cumulative investment in supporting the real economy was nearly RMB10.14 trillion. The green investment of insurance funds and the green loan balance reached RMB124,712 million and RMB157,762 million respectively. In 2024, the green insurance premium income amounted to RMB58,608 million and funds provided for rural industrial vitalization totaled RMB52,014 million. Ping An rose to AA in MSCI ESG ratings in 2024, ranking No.1 in the multi-line insurance and brokerage industry in Asia-Pacific for three consecutive years.
Looking Ahead to 2025, Advancing a Comprehensive Digitalization Strategy and Seizing New Growth Drivers.
2025 is the final year of China?s 14th Five-Year Plan. The external environment is still complex and severe while domestic growth momentum still needs to be strengthened in the short term. However, the favorable conditions for and fundamental trend of China?s positive long-term outlook have not changed. Ping An?s financial, health and senior care businesses have new huge growth momentum. Ping An understands customer needs, recognizing the strong demand for diverse financial services, the vast potential in the health care sector, and the growing desire for high-quality senior care services. Ping An?s ?integrated finance + health and senior care? strategy has a great prospect. Ping An will further focus on core financial businesses and enhance customer development to effectively improve customer acquisition, activation, migration and retention, driving steady growth in the number of retail customers, contracts per customer and profit per customer. Moreover, Ping An will unlock more synergies to advance the ?worry-free, time-saving, and money-saving? value proposition. Seizing market opportunities from the downward cycle of liabilities, Ping An will accelerate the development of its core financial businesses, fully leverage the advantages of insurance funds to strengthen financial support for building a technologically advanced nation, and fulfill the responsibility of ?patient capital?. Promoting technology enablement, Ping An will accelerate the deep integration of AI and big data platforms to start a new chapter of its comprehensive digitalization strategy. Leveraging its first-mover advantage in previous basic research and development and business applications, Ping An is developing five major systems, namely ?digital business, digital operations, digital management, digital marketing, and digital services.? Ping An strives to provide ?the most professional financial advisory, family doctor, and senior care concierge? services via an ?online, in-store, in-home and in-company? health and senior care network. In this way, Ping An will further sharpen its cutting edge of applying AI to digital finance and health and senior care.
Look ahead to 2025, Ping An will fully implement the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee?s decisions and deployment for economic work in 2025, study and understand the spirit of the ?Two Sessions? and the key points of the government work report, seek progress while maintaining stability, and adhere to the fundamental mission of serving the real economy. Ping An will firmly implement its business policy of ?focusing on core businesses, boosting revenue and cutting costs, advancing reform and innovation, and preventing risks? and further advance its technology-enabled ?integrated finance + health and senior care? dual-driver strategy. The Group will advance its comprehensive digital transformation and ?worry-free, time-saving, and money-saving? value proposition. Ping An will bolster five key financial sectors (i.e., technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance), contributing to the growth of China into a financial powerhouse.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
21-Mar-2025 09:48
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Compare HK and sg property market
Singapore's property market has shown remarkable resilience, avoiding major crashes like those in 1998 (Asian Financial Crisis) and 2008 (Global Financial Crisis). However, whether it can permanently ?break the curse? of past downturns depends on several factors:
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Why Singapore?s Property Market Has Been Resilient So Far
1. Strong Government Intervention & Cooling Measures
Unlike in 1998 and 2008, where property bubbles formed due to loose credit and speculation, the government has proactively implemented cooling measures since 2011. These include:
ABSD (Additional Buyer?s Stamp Duty) to curb speculation.
Loan-to-Value (LTV) limits to prevent over-leveraging.
Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) to ensure affordability.
These measures prevent excessive risk-taking and reduce the chance of a sharp, forced-selling crash.
2. Singapore as a Global Safe Haven
In past crises, Singapore was seen as just another Asian economy. Today, it is a safe haven for global wealth, attracting high-net-worth individuals from China, India, and beyond.
Family offices, foreign investors, and ultra-rich buyers continue to enter the market despite ABSD.
3. Low Unemployment and Rising Wages
Unlike in 1998 and 2008, where job losses led to forced selling, Singapore?s economy is strong and diversified.
Wage growth and CPF savings support housing demand, reducing the likelihood of mass defaults.
4. Controlled Supply Prevents Oversupply Crashes
In 1998 and 2008, developers overbuilt, leading to a supply glut.
Today, the government carefully controls new land sales, ensuring a more balanced supply-demand dynamic.
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Will Singapore Ever See a Major Property Crash Again?
Possible Risk Scenarios
Even with resilience, certain external shocks could still trigger a downturn:
1. Severe Global Recession ? If the US and China slow down sharply, Singapore?s economy could suffer.
2. Sharp Interest Rate Spike ? If rates stay high for a prolonged period, even wealthy buyers may hesitate.
3. Major Policy Changes ? If the government imposes extreme cooling measures (e.g., ultra-high ABSD or capital controls on property purchases).
4. Massive Oversupply Mistake ? If a sudden surge in supply (e.g., excessive GLS land releases) occurs, prices could drop significantly.
Why a 1998/2008-Type Crash is Unlikely
However, unlike past crises, Singapore?s market today is more structurally sound:
No excessive leverage (TDSR caps ensure buyers are financially stable).
No massive speculative bubble (most buyers are owner-occupiers, not flippers).
Continued strong demand from local and foreign buyers.
Instead of a big crash, the more likely scenario is a gradual price moderation or plateau during economic slowdowns, rather than a repeat of 1998 or 2008.
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Conclusion: The Market May Correct, But a Full-Blown Crash is Unlikely
Barring an extreme black swan event, Singapore?s property market has likely moved past the era of extreme boom-and-bust cycles. The combination of strong policy intervention, wealth inflows, limited supply, and economic resilience makes a full-scale collapse less probable.
However, pockets of correction (e.g., luxury or mass-market segments) can still happen, especially if interest rates stay high or if external economic shocks hit hard.
Would you say Singapore?s policies have been successful in creating a more stable property market, or do you think a crash is still possible under certain conditions?
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chartistkaohz
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21-Mar-2025 09:40
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Singapore's property prices have continued to rise despite numerous cooling measures because of several structural and demand-driven factors that outweigh the impact of regulations. Here?s why:
1. Limited Land Supply and Controlled New Supply
Singapore is a small country with scarce land, so the government carefully manages the release of land for development.
New housing supply is controlled through the Government Land Sales (GLS) program, preventing oversupply.
Delays in construction due to COVID-19 created a backlog of demand, which led to higher prices.
2. Strong Demand from Locals and Foreigners
HDB upgraders: Rising HDB resale prices allow many homeowners to upgrade to private condos, supporting demand.
Wealthy foreigners and permanent residents continue to buy despite Additional Buyer?s Stamp Duty (ABSD). Singapore is a safe haven for global capital, attracting high-net-worth individuals.
New citizens and expatriates fuel demand for both private and rental markets.
3. Inflation and Rising Construction Costs
Higher costs of land, materials, and labor have pushed up new home prices.
Developers pass these costs to buyers, keeping property prices high even in a cooling market.
4. Strong Economic Growth and Rising Wages
Singapore?s economy remains resilient, with low unemployment and increasing salaries, enabling buyers to afford homes even with higher prices.
Interest rates were historically low for much of the past decade, making financing more attractive.
5. Psychology of the Market and Investment Culture
Many Singaporeans view property as a stable, long-term investment, driving continued buying interest.
Fear of missing out (FOMO) and the perception that prices will keep rising encourage buyers to act despite cooling measures.
6. Government Policies Encourage Home Ownership
While cooling measures moderate speculation, they do not discourage home ownership.
The government provides grants and support for first-time buyers, keeping demand stable.
7. Developers' Pricing Strategies
Developers do not slash prices easily because they acquired land at high prices.
Many new launches are priced higher to maintain profit margins, setting new benchmarks in property prices.
8. Interest Rates and Liquidity Effects
While interest rates have risen, many wealthy buyers purchase homes with minimal or no loans, making Loan-to-Value (LTV) limits less impactful.
Ample liquidity in the market (e.g., CPF savings, family wealth) sustains housing demand.
Final Thought: Prices May Stabilize, But Structural Demand Remains Strong
Cooling measures can slow price growth, but they haven?t been enough to cause a prolonged drop because demand remains strong, supply is tightly controlled, and properties are seen as long-term assets. The question now is whether the government will introduce even stricter policies or if demand will naturally moderate over time.
What do you think? Would further tightening actually bring prices down, or is Singapore?s property market fundamentally resilient?
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chartistkaohz
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20-Mar-2025 10:36
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政 府 能 和 企 业 好 好 合 作 吗
2004年 , 黄 祖 耀 通 过 其 控 制 的 公 司 谈 马 锡 ( Temasek Holdings) 参 与 了 对 大 华 置 业 ( United Industrial Corporation, UIC) 的 收 购 。 黄 祖 耀 是 新 加 坡 著 名 企 业 家 , 也 是 大 华 银 行 ( United Overseas Bank, UOB) 的 董 事 长 。 谈 马 锡 是 新 加 坡 政 府 旗 下 的 投 资 公 司 , 负 责 管 理 国 家 储 备 和 进 行 战 略 性 投 资 。
在 这 一 收 购 中 , 谈 马 锡 通 过 其 子 公 司 收 购 了 大 华 置 业 的 大 量 股 份 , 从 而 增 强 了 对 该 公 司 的 控 制 权 。 大 华 置 业 是 新 加 坡 一 家 重 要 的 房 地 产 公 司 , 拥 有 多 个 商 业 和 住 宅 项 目 。 这 次 收 购 被 视 为 谈 马 锡 在 房 地 产 领 域 的 重 要 布 局 , 同 时 也 反 映 了 黄 祖 耀 及 其 关 联 企 业 在 房 地 产 市 场 的 战 略 扩 展 。
这 一 交 易 在 当 时 引 起 了 广 泛 关 注 , 因 为 它 不 仅 涉 及 新 加 坡 两 大 重 要 企 业 , 还 反 映 了 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 在 全 球 化 背 景 下 的 整 合 趋 势 。
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chartistkaohz
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20-Mar-2025 09:45
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Ng Teng Fong, the founder of Far East Organization, expanded into Hong Kong?s property market primarily through Sino Group, which became one of Hong Kong?s largest private developers. His strategy was based on timing, land acquisition, and long-term holding power. Here?s how he did it:
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1. Entering Hong Kong?s Property Market in the 1970s
Ng Teng Fong entered Hong Kong in the early 1970s, a time when the property market was still developing.
He set up Sino Group in 1971, separate from Far East Organization in Singapore, to focus on Hong Kong real estate.
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2. Smart Land Acquisitions at Low Prices
He focused on acquiring large plots of land at cheap prices, often in areas that were underdeveloped but had strong long-term potential.
One key example was his early investment in Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, which later became one of the most valuable commercial and residential areas in Hong Kong.
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3. Focus on Residential and Commercial Developments
Built large-scale residential projects to cater to Hong Kong?s rising middle class.
Developed Grade-A office buildings and hotels, such as The Royal Pacific Hotel and Tsim Sha Tsui Centre.
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4. Long-Term Holding Strategy
Unlike other developers who focused on quick property flips, Ng Teng Fong preferred to hold assets for the long term and collect rental income.
This strategy made Sino Group one of Hong Kong?s most asset-rich developers, with a strong recurring income base.
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5. Expansion During Market Downturns
He followed a counter-cyclical investment strategy, buying land and assets when others were selling.
During the Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1998), when property prices collapsed, Sino Group acquired undervalued properties at a discount.
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6. Diversification into Hospitality and Retail
Sino Group expanded into hotels and shopping malls, including developments like The Fullerton Ocean Park Hotel and various commercial properties in prime areas.
This helped diversify income sources beyond just property sales.
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7. Conservative Financial Management
He kept low debt levels, ensuring Sino Group remained financially stable even during market downturns.
This allowed the company to continue acquiring assets when competitors were struggling.
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8. Legacy and Second-Generation Leadership
After Ng Teng Fong?s passing in 2010, his sons Robert and Philip Ng continued expanding Sino Group and Far East Organization.
Today, Sino Group remains one of Hong Kong?s top property developers, with strong holdings in residential, commercial, and hospitality sectors.
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Key Takeaways from Ng Teng Fong?s HK Expansion Strategy
1. Buy land at low prices and focus on long-term appreciation.
2. Hold key assets instead of selling for quick profits.
3. Expand during downturns when prices are low.
4. Diversify into commercial, retail, and hospitality properties for stable cash flow.
5. Maintain financial discipline to survive market crises.
This patient, counter-cyclical strategy is similar to how Hong Kong?s top property tycoons built their empires. If CDL or other Singapore developers want to expand into Hong Kong today, they could follow a similar approach?buying undervalued assets while the market is weak.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
20-Mar-2025 09:38
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Yes, CDL (City Developments Limited) should consider acquiring stakes in undervalued Hong Kong developers, particularly those controlled by the four major property tycoons (Li Ka-shing?s CK Asset, Lee Shau Kee?s Henderson Land, the Kwok family's Sun Hung Kai Properties, and Cheng Yu-tung?s New World Development & Chow Tai Fook). Here?s why this could be a strategic move:
1. Hong Kong Developers Are Deeply Undervalued
Due to higher interest rates, weak property demand, and China?s economic slowdown, Hong Kong developers are trading well below their book values.
CDL has a history of making counter-cyclical investments, like its expansion in China, and could apply the same approach to Hong Kong.
2. Long-Term Value in Prime Hong Kong Land Holdings
The four tycoon-controlled developers own prime land banks in Hong Kong, many of which are irreplaceable.
If the market rebounds, CDL could benefit from capital appreciation in a globally important property market.
3. Diversification From Singapore?s Property Market
Singapore's property cooling measures limit CDL?s growth potential domestically.
Expanding into Hong Kong allows CDL to grow outside Singapore while staying within a familiar legal and financial system.
4. Acquisition Targets: Who Should CDL Look At?
a) New World Development (17.HK)
Highly discounted with deep value assets in HK and China.
Struggling with high debt, making it vulnerable to a strategic investor like CDL.
Cheng family may welcome a strong partner to ease debt burdens.
b) Henderson Land (12.HK)
Focused on urban redevelopment and commercial assets.
Low debt compared to peers, making it a safer bet for CDL.
c) CK Asset (1113.HK)
Li Ka-shing?s firm has global assets, including in Singapore.
Trades at a discount to NAV and has a strong balance sheet.
CDL could co-invest in overseas assets with CK Asset.
5. CDL Can Take Advantage of Weak Market Sentiment
Instead of bidding for land at high prices, CDL can buy into these developers at a deep discount.
Similar to what Temasek did with China banks in 2003, CDL could take a long-term stake in Hong Kong?s property giants.
Challenges
Regulatory approval: HK developers may resist foreign control.
Holding power: The market might take time to recover, so CDL needs patience.
Debt concerns: Some HK developers are highly leveraged. CDL must avoid those at risk of default.
Conclusion
CDL should strategically acquire stakes in undervalued Hong Kong developers instead of aggressively buying expensive Singapore assets. If done well, this move could provide long-term growth and a hedge against Singapore's cooling market.
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chartistkaohz
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19-Mar-2025 16:22
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It depends on what you prioritize as an investor.
City Developments Limited (CDL) ? Kwek-Controlled:
Pros: CDL has greater flexibility in decision-making, as it is controlled by the Kwek family (Hong Leong Group). This allows for a more entrepreneurial approach to capital allocation and risk-taking. CDL also has a global presence, including assets in Singapore, the UK, China, and Australia.
Cons: A more aggressive expansion strategy can sometimes lead to overleveraging. For example, CDL faced issues with its investment in China's Sincere Property Group, which resulted in a write-off.
CapitaLand (CLI) ? Government-Controlled via Temasek:
Pros: CLI benefits from Temasek's backing, providing stability and access to capital. It focuses on asset-light strategies, such as fund management and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which generate stable recurring income. This makes it less reliant on property development profits.
Cons: Being government-linked, CLI may prioritize national economic interests over maximizing shareholder returns. Decision-making could be more bureaucratic compared to CDL?s family-run structure.
Which Is Better?
If you prefer entrepreneurial growth and opportunistic investments, CDL may appeal to you.
If you prefer stability, strong institutional backing, and recurring income, CapitaLand may be the better choice.
Would you prioritize valuation, dividend yield, or something else when comparing them?
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chartistkaohz
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19-Mar-2025 16:09
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CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI) and City Developments Limited (CDL) are two prominent Singapore-based real estate companies with substantial portfolios across various sectors and regions. Here's a comparative overview focusing on their valuation, yield, and asset holdings:
Valuation and Financial Performance
CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI):
In its 2021 Annual Report, CLI reported a Profit After Tax and Minority Interests (PATMI) of S$1.35 billion for the fiscal year 2021.
City Developments Limited (CDL):
CDL's 2024 financial results are accessible on their investor relations website.
Dividend Yield
CLI: Specific dividend yield information for CLI is not provided in the available sources.
CDL: Specific dividend yield information for CDL is not provided in the available sources.
Asset Holdings
CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI):
CLI's portfolio encompasses a diverse range of real estate classes, including integrated developments, retail, office, lodging, residential, and new economy sectors such as business parks, industrial, logistics, and data centers.
City Developments Limited (CDL):
CDL possesses a diversified portfolio that includes residential, commercial, and hospitality assets.
Recent Developments
CLI: In September 2024, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, a REIT under CLI, agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Singapore's ION Orchard mall for S$1.85 billion, aiming to enhance its retail portfolio.
CDL: As of February 2025, CDL is experiencing internal governance challenges, with reports indicating a boardroom dispute involving key executives.
Conclusion
Both CLI and CDL are significant players in the real estate sector, each with unique strengths and strategic directions. CLI focuses on investment management and a broad spectrum of asset classes, while CDL maintains a diversified portfolio with a strong emphasis on residential and commercial developments. Investors should consider these distinctions, along with the latest financial data and company developments, when evaluating potential investments.
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chartistkaohz
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19-Mar-2025 14:43
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City Developments Limited (CDL) and New World Development (NWD) are prominent real estate companies in Asia. Here's a comparison based on their debt levels, valuation metrics, dividend yields, cash holdings, and net tangible assets (NTA):
Debt Levels: CDL: As of December 31, 2024, CDL's total debt stood at SGD 13.98 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 150.14%. NWD: The specific total debt figure for NWD isn't provided in the available sources. However, NWD's total capital resources amounted to approximately HKD 46.3 billion, including cash and bank balances of approximately HKD 28.0 billion and undrawn facilities from banks of approximately HKD 18.3 billion. Valuation Metrics: CDL: Trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 23.71 Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 0.50 Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio: 1.38 Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): 12.90 NWD: Specific valuation metrics for NWD, such as P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA, aren't available in the provided sources. Dividend Yield: CDL: The forward annual dividend rate is SGD 0.08, yielding approximately 1.58%. NWD: For the year ending June 30, 2024, NWD declared a dividend of HKD 0.20 per share. Cash Holdings: CDL: Total cash holdings as of December 31, 2024, were SGD 3.19 billion. NWD: As of June 30, 2024, NWD's cash and bank balances were approximately HKD 28.0 billion. Net Tangible Assets (NTA): CDL: The book value per share (often used as a proxy for NTA) was SGD 9.86 as of December 31, 2024. NWD: Specific NTA figures for NWD aren't provided in the available sources. Please note that financial figures are reported in their respective local currencies (SGD for CDL and HKD for NWD). Additionally, some data for NWD, such as total debt and NTA, were not available in the provided sources. |
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chartistkaohz
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19-Mar-2025 14:41
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郭 芳 枫 的 成 功 充 分 体 现 了 商 业 远 见 和 顺 势 而 为 的 战 略 智 慧 。 他 不 仅 敏 锐 地 预 见 到 二 战 后 资 源 短 缺 的 机 会 , 低 价 囤 积 军 需 剩 余 物 资 , 还 提 前 布 局 房 地 产 市 场 , 在 战 后 经 济 复 苏 、 城 市 扩 张 的 过 程 中 实 现 了 财 富 的 几 何 级 增 长 。 这 种 精 准 的 趋 势 判 断 和 果 断 的 执 行 能 力 , 是 他 能 够 奠 定 丰 隆 集 团 商 业 帝 国 基 础 的 关 键 。
更 重 要 的 是 , 他 并 未 局 限 于 单 一 产 业 , 而 是 在 房 地 产 取 得 巨 大 成 功 后 , 迅 速 扩 展 至 金 融 业 , 并 最 终 将 丰 隆 集 团 发 展 成 一 个 横 跨 多 个 领 域 的 综 合 性 企 业 集 团 。 从 他 的 商 业 生 涯 总 结 ???做 生 意 要 有 远 大 眼 光 , 要 配 合 时 代 需 要 ?来 看 , 他 深 知 企 业 的 成 功 不 仅 依 赖 个 人 判 断 , 还 要 与 时 代 趋 势 同 频 共 振 。 郭 令 明 接 班 后 , 成 功 将 丰 隆 集 团 推 向 全 球 , 进 一 步 验 证 了 郭 家 企 业 的 传 承 与 创 新 能 力 。 从 一 家 依 靠 物 资 交 易 起 家 的 公 司 , 到 如 今 拥 有 110家 国 际 酒 店 、 11家 上 市 公 司 , 丰 隆 集 团 的 成 长 轨 迹 既 是 家 族 企 业 成 功 接 班 的 案 例 , 也 反 映 出 在 全 球 化 时 代 如 何 顺 应 市 场 变 化 , 持 续 扩 展 业 务 版 图 。 从 你 的 投 资 角 度 来 看 , 你 如 何 看 待 丰 隆 集 团 的 商 业 模 式 ? 你 觉 得 它 的 成 功 经 验 是 否 对 今 天 的 新 加 坡 企 业 仍 有 借 鉴 意 义 ? |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
19-Mar-2025 14:32
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https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Z32OvoxkHt6fWfRKlMU8og | ||||
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
19-Mar-2025 14:17
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郭 芳 枫 的 成 功 充 分 体 现 了 商 业 远 见 和 顺 势 而 为 的 战 略 智 慧 。 他 不 仅 敏 锐 地 预 见 到 二 战 后 资 源 短 缺 的 机 会 , 低 价 囤 积 军 需 剩 余 物 资 , 还 提 前 布 局 房 地 产 市 场 , 在 战 后 经 济 复 苏 、 城 市 扩 张 的 过 程 中 实 现 了 财 富 的 几 何 级 增 长 。 这 种 精 准 的 趋 势 判 断 和 果 断 的 执 行 能 力 , 是 他 能 够 奠 定 丰 隆 集 团 商 业 帝 国 基 础 的 关 键 。
更 重 要 的 是 , 他 并 未 局 限 于 单 一 产 业 , 而 是 在 房 地 产 取 得 巨 大 成 功 后 , 迅 速 扩 展 至 金 融 业 , 并 最 终 将 丰 隆 集 团 发 展 成 一 个 横 跨 多 个 领 域 的 综 合 性 企 业 集 团 。 从 他 的 商 业 生 涯 总 结 ???做 生 意 要 有 远 大 眼 光 , 要 配 合 时 代 需 要 ?来 看 , 他 深 知 企 业 的 成 功 不 仅 依 赖 个 人 判 断 , 还 要 与 时 代 趋 势 同 频 共 振 。 郭 令 明 接 班 后 , 成 功 将 丰 隆 集 团 推 向 全 球 , 进 一 步 验 证 了 郭 家 企 业 的 传 承 与 创 新 能 力 。 从 一 家 依 靠 物 资 交 易 起 家 的 公 司 , 到 如 今 拥 有 110家 国 际 酒 店 、 11家 上 市 公 司 , 丰 隆 集 团 的 成 长 轨 迹 既 是 家 族 企 业 成 功 接 班 的 案 例 , 也 反 映 出 在 全 球 化 时 代 如 何 顺 应 市 场 变 化 , 持 续 扩 展 业 务 版 图 。 从 你 的 投 资 角 度 来 看 , 你 如 何 看 待 丰 隆 集 团 的 商 业 模 式 ? 你 觉 得 它 的 成 功 经 验 是 否 对 今 天 的 新 加 坡 企 业 仍 有 借 鉴 意 义 ? |
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chartistkaohz
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19-Mar-2025 13:18
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郭 令 明 的 成 长 经 历 充 分 展 现 了 传 统 华 人 家 族 企 业 的 严 格 培 养 方 式 , 特 别 是 父 亲 郭 芳 枫 对 他 的 ?实 战 式 ?训 练 方 式 。 从 他 的 描 述 来 看 , 郭 芳 枫 不 仅 对 儿 子 要 求 极 高 , 而 且 采 取 了 一 种 近 乎 ?军 事 化 ?的 管 理 方 式 ??不 给 理 由 , 不 解 释 过 程 , 只 要 求 结 果 。 这 种 方 式 虽 然 在 当 时 让 郭 令 明 感 到 困 惑 甚 至 不 满 , 但 从 长 远 来 看 , 也 锻 炼 了 他 的 执 行 力 、 决 策 力 和 适 应 力 。
这 种 ?先 服 从 , 后 理 解 ?的 训 练 方 式 , 在 许 多 成 功 的 二 代 企 业 家 中 都 能 看 到 。 它 的 核 心 逻 辑 是 : 在 复 杂 的 商 业 环 境 中 , 决 策 往 往 需 要 快 速 且 果 断 , 不 能 等 到 完 全 理 解 所 有 背 景 信 息 后 才 行 动 。 因 此 , 这 种 高 压 环 境 下 的 培 养 , 有 助 于 塑 造 一 个 商 业 领 袖 所 需 的 敏 锐 判 断 力 和 果 断 执 行 力 。 从 结 果 来 看 , 郭 令 明 最 终 带 领 丰 隆 集 团 成 为 全 球 知 名 的 企 业 集 团 , 足 以 证 明 这 种 严 格 培 养 方 式 的 有 效 性 。 不 过 , 这 种 方 式 是 否 适 用 于 所 有 人 , 可 能 因 个 性 和 时 代 变 迁 而 有 所 不 同 。 你 怎 么 看 ? 你 觉 得 现 在 的 家 族 企 业 还 会 采 用 这 样 的 培 养 方 式 吗 ?
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