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Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report
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orientalseed
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01-Nov-2024 08:52
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东 子 证 券 舆 情 大 数 据 研 报 Dongzi Securities Big Data Research Report on Public Opinion Release date October 31, 2024 at 9:25 AM The DongZi Securities Sentiment Big Data Indicator (I) - Overseas Chinese Securities [Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Bullish Composite Index] Optimism and Caution Coexist in the Overseas Chinese Securities Market Dong Zi Securities October 31, 2024 9:30:00 AM DongZi Securities has recently released its " Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Bullish Composite Index" at 53.9, down 7% from the previous period, and has experienced a slight decline for three consecutive days. This change reflects the complex attitude of international investors towards the overseas Chinese securities market: they remain optimistic to some extent, but also show significant caution. Goldman Sachs strategists' predictions for China' s stock market in the future present a dual nature. They expect China' s stock market to rise within two to three months after the US presidential election. However, they also raise a warning: if former President Trump were to win again, China' s stock market may experience fluctuations due to the subconscious reactions of market participants. Although there is an expected package of measures, the market has responded with indifference, only considering it to be in line with expectations and not arousing market excitement. Investors are currently eagerly waiting for more details from the National People' s Congress to obtain more information about the future policy direction. At the same time, the strengthening of technology investment regulation in the United States also constitutes a potential threat to the Chinese market. The US presidential election itself also brings uncertainty to the Chinese market. Trump' s candidate status and his policy stance of imposing high tariffs on imported Chinese products undoubtedly increase the risks of the overseas Chinese securities market. However, from the data of the Chinese economy brown book, several tracking indicators showed signs of possible recovery in October. Despite this, the private research company still pointed out on Wednesday that although Beijing had introduced new policy measures, China' s real estate market had not shown obvious improvement. Overall, the economic data in China shows deflationary pressure and weakness in the labor market, which leads consumers to continue to maintain their saving mode and are reluctant to increase consumption. In summary, The Index Explained: The Dongzi Securities " Overseas China Securities - Daily Bullish Sentiment Comprehensive Index" is the world' s first index that monitors the daily bullish sentiment of the Chinese stock market globally. The index is based on the daily comments of the world' s top media on China' s politics, economy, diplomacy, and stock market, and uses big data algorithms to derive the optimism and pessimism values for the Chinese stock market. The higher the value, the stronger the willingness to buy Chinese stocks. Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicators (Part 2) [Overseas China Securities - Daily News Sentiment Index] The news is neutral to slightly positive for the overseas China securities market Dongzi Securities October 31, 2024 9:30:00 Today, the " Singapore FTSE China A50 - Daily News Sentiment Index" recorded 0.16, which is neutral to slightly positive for the market. The " China Hong Kong Stock - Daily News Sentiment Index" recorded 0.25, which is neutral to slightly positive for the market. After the market closed yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission and six other departments issued the " Guiding Opinions on Strongly Implementing Renewable Energy Replacement Action" . The policy is mainly beneficial to the photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen, and green electricity sectors, basically covering all areas of new energy. The implementation of this policy is expected to bring positive market expectations and investment opportunities to related sectors. Internationally, US economic data far exceeded expectations! The US added 23.3 thousand ADP jobs in October, far exceeding expectations. The forecast was for an increase of 11.1 thousand, and the previous value was 14.3 thousand. It may have a positive impact on market sentiment. In addition, the China-related assets of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the Singapore FTSE China A50 futures showed a bottoming-out and rebound trend, indicating a certain degree of market resilience. Overall, the current policy-related impact on the market is showing a neutral to slightly positive trend. Figure 2: Dongzi Securities " China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index" ✭ Data Source: Dongzi Securities " China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index" uses big data technology to collect news reports from 100 global media outlets about China Hong Kong stocks every day. It evaluates the attributes and influence of all related news articles, and finally calculates the daily news score through the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model. This reveals the positive or negative attributes of news information on the Hong Kong stock market. ✭ Index Explanation: The higher the Dongzi Securities " China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index" value, the greater the positive impact on the stock market, and vice versa. A value below -1 is negative, between -1 and 1 is neutral, and above 1 is positive. Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (III) [Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index] Improving sentiment in the overseas Chinese securities market Dongzi Securities 2024-11-01 9:30:00 Today, the " Singapore FTSE China A50-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" is 63.5, up 20% from yesterday, and market sentiment has improved. At the same time, the " China Hong Kong Stock Market-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" has rebounded by 36% and closed at 52.3, with market sentiment also showing a positive trend. The October PMI data turned upwards, indicating that the economy has recovered, which shows that the monetary easing and real estate relaxation measures introduced by China recently may have begun to have an impact on the economy. Investor confidence has therefore been boosted, and their expectations for the future market are more optimistic than before. In summary, today' s Singapore FTSE China A50 Index and Hong Kong stock market institutional sentiment index have both shown significant rebounds, and market sentiment has improved. Read more Figure 1: Dongzi Securities " Singapore FTSE China A50-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" ✭ Data Source: Dongzi Securities " Singapore FTSE China A50 - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" uses big data technology to collect nearly 100 articles and research reports on FTSE China A50 analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses related software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the FTSE A50 stock market on the same day. ✭ Index Explanation: The higher the Dongzi Securities " Singapore FTSE China A50 - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" is, the higher the investment banks' bullish sentiment towards the stock market is, and vice versa. An index value below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, a range of 48 to 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and an index value above 52 indicates a bullish outlook. Figure 2: Dongzi Securities " China Hong Kong Stock - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" ✭ Data Source: The Daily Institutional Sentiment Index for China GDRs by Dongzi Securities uses big data technology to collect nearly 200 articles and research reports on China GDRs analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. The data is then processed through relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of keywords, and derive the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the Hong Kong stock market on that day. ✭ Index Explanation: The higher the Dongzi Securities " Daily Institutional Sentiment Index for China GDRs" is, the higher the investors' bullish sentiment towards the stock market is, and vice versa. An index value below 48 indicates a bearish outlook, while an index value between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral outlook, and an index value above 52 indicates a bullish outlook. Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (IV) 【 Overseas Chinese Securities - Pre-Market Forecast for the Day】 Overseas Chinese Securities Market to See Fluctuations Today Dongzi Securities 2024-10-31 9:30:00 Today, it is expected that the FTSE China A50 Index will see a volatile trend. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is expected to see a volatile trend today. Read More Figure 1: Dongzi Securities " FTSE China A50 Index Trend Forecast" Figure 2: Dongzi Securities " Predicted Trend of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index" The East Zi Securities Big Data Indicator (V) - Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Pre-Market Strategy: A Crucial Turning Point in the Market is Approaching East Zi Securities 2024-10-31 9:30:00 The upcoming week will be a crucial window for the FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore. In addition to the National People' s Congress Standing Committee meeting, the US presidential election on November 5, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement on November 7, all are market focus points. It is expected that the market atmosphere will turn to cautious observation and gradually intensify before the relevant news is released. From the recent market trend, international investors have shown a markedly cautious attitude towards the FTSE China A50 Index. The " Overseas China Securities - Daily Long Only Comprehensive Index" in East Zi Securities sentiment index has fallen for three consecutive days, showing investors' concerns about the market. From the chart, this week the market has indeed faced double pressure. One is that the insurance and securities stocks, which led the current round of market rallies, have clearly shown signs of capital withdrawal in recent days. On Wednesday, there was an acceleration of this trend, with China Life releasing large volumes and falling, showing a breakdown trend. The main trend of chip stocks mainstay, SMIC, has been a continuous downtrend, with a clear head-and-shoulders pattern. In addition, the impact of the third-quarter earnings report cannot be ignored. Although the market has expected poor third-quarter performance, some listed companies' earnings decline exceeded investors' tolerance range, such as CMB, which saw a significant decline after the earnings report. As an important weighted stock in the FTSE China A50 Index, several leading stocks are facing certain pressure, which will have a significant negative impact on the index. However, because on Thursday, according to relevant regulations, the third-quarter earnings report disclosure will end, which means that the impact on the index will be greatly slowed down. We can see that the " Singapore FTSE China A50 - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" has shown Read More Figure 1: Dongzi Securities " Long-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore" Figure 2: Dongzi Securities " Long-term Smart Live Trading of FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore" Performance Chart Figure 3: Dongzi Securities " Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Midline Smart Live Trading" Figure 4: Dongzi Securities " Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading" Performance Chart The East Securities Mid-term Smart Live Trading is a smart trading model that guides trading operations based on East Securities' " Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Long-only Comprehensive Index" , East Securities' " Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily News Sentiment Index" , and East Securities' " Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" , through big data weighted calculation to derive mid-term buy and sell trading signals, and then follows the signals to conduct trading operations. |
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