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CapLand Ascendas RE
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Ascendasreit
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Dec-2023 13:05
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Falling back on my trading history, on the basis that I am a good contra indicator of market direction at times, I think its about time for this neither here nor there shadow boxing to end soon. And if all turn out well, Ascendas should make a move towards her 2.70-series. This has happened to me many times in the past. The counter I am eyeing is range trading. And the range trading was sibeh ku. All this while when I didnt do anything, my stock did a yo-yo from top to bottom and bottom to top and this went on and on and on for sibeh ku. And after watching her do that yo-yo for sibeh ku to a point that I was convinced not to waste it but to profit from it and so I went in to BUY when she was at the bottom of the trading range expecting her to continue her yo-yo and go back up to the top of the trading range. For so long, she faithfully yo-yo up whenever she was at the bottom. Like clockwork. But the moment I decided to move in to BUY, she stopped her yo-yo right there and then. And continued to fall to begin her shift to a lower playing field leaving me stuck up there high and dry. NABEH.  We have been seeing her at 2.80 to 2.84 largely for 2 weeks now. And I was thinking why not tikam her at 2.80 for chicken run and run road at 2.82 to 2.84 for cheap thrill. I was already at the stage where I was tempted to do this chicken run. And then I reflected on my trading history and recalled all those occasions when she early dont shift late dont shift but Phian Phian when I decided to tikam her current trading range that she chose to pick that very time to begin her shift to a lower trading field and left me stranded up there. Becoz of the above, therefore I say I think the end of her current yo-yo is coming soon. And I hope to see her shift her trading range to a lower playing field - the 2.70s. Ofcoz she can also shift UP instead towards 2.90. If the monkey is willing, anything is possible. But gutfeel says more likely down than up. If the monkey wants to go up, it would have happened last week or the week before. That' s what my gutfeel says. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:59
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Sis Halle, For Treasury Bills, we must wait for maturity to redeem. For SSB, upon redemption, we must wait till the 1st or 2nd of the following month to get our money back. That' s way too long and mean if a buying opportunity comes, I will miss it. Coz got bola but no capital. Anyway, these instruments all pay less than 4% interest, right ? My army.... becoz I did not put in Treasury Bills, FDs, SSB etc... and my boys were ready to go into the battlefield at the snap of my fingers, they made more than 12% return on capital for me this year. So on hindsight, not locking up my army in Treasury Bills, FDs and SSB etc has given me more bangs for my bucks. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:23
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it can be fr weeks or months wth tis tight range...tats why i said need to diversify yr $$$ into other area too n dun just die die waiting fr tis seow jie n mit only....wasting time...
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Dec-2023 09:10
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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I guess its going to be another boring and nothing-to-do day. Its lidat one. BUY & HOLD game is a super duper sibeh boring way to invest. But if you do it right, 90% probability you will make money. And you will be in the 10% of people who make money in the stock market. Trading....intraday, intra-week, intra-month...whatever. You jump IN and OUT...very exciting. When make money, sibeh song. When lose money, sibeh siong. Yes, you will make. And sometimes when you are on a roll, you will make and make. Until you think you can never lose. Then one day, when you least expect it, PayBack Day comes and the market takes back all your profits. Plus some of your capital. You will feel sibeh beh kam guan. Mana Eh Sai Ah Mee Khwan one...you will say. And so you will continue trading. Becoz you beh kam guan mah. You think you can still do it this way and win. And yes, you will still win from time to time. Sometimes win a few times in a row. Until PayBack Day comes again. Then you give back everything you have made. Plus some of your capital. Those of you who have walked this road before.... you can connect right away with what I said. You know exactly what I mean. Only 10% of traders make money. The rest dont. But if you do it the BUY & HOLD way, yes, you will be bored to tears. But you will be in the 10% of people who make money. So what do you want to be ? Bored, but you make money. OR.... not bored, but you lose money. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 15:01
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Ascendas typically report her results on the last week of Jan 2024 or 1st week of Feb 2024. Dividend is between 7 and 8 cts and XD is 5 trading days after result day. A good time to buy her is from 1st and 2nd week of Jan especially if she is trading sideways. If she is falling, stand aside and let her fall first. If she is rising, wait for a pullback to come and then watch what our neighbours are doing during the pullback. She will usually firm up in the month of Jan in anticipation of results and dividend. If your entry level is right, you will make more than 8 cts from her Result cum Dividend Run. Dont wait for XD. Counting from her pre-XD Swing High to her post-XD Swing Low, the pullback can be 10 cts or more. The pre-XD Swing High is sometimes reached before Result Day and sometimes on/after Result Day. Becoz of this, to wait for her result to sell may not necessarily enable you to sell at/near the Swing High. If you see a paper gain of 8 cts or more, you have already done better than a long term BUY & HOLD investor who hold for years or decades. Anything above 8 cts is a bonus. And your mindset should be one of " Dont be greedy. Get ready to take profits" . But first, there are still 17 trading days to go in Dec. Lots of time for her to run up or run down during this period. If the monkey so dictate. .  |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 09:51
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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US CPI Data is on 12 Dec at 8.30pm Spore time. FOMC is on 12 to 13 Dec and Powell will make a press statement at 2.30am Spore time on 14 Dec. A pause will mean that the rate hike cycle has ended and from here, rates will remain higher for longer until inflation has retreated to 2% or to whatever level the Fed deems SONG enuf for them to start talking about when to cut rates. Yes, we could get a rally. But that is also the time of the year when fund managers have already Siew Kang and are on vacation with their families or gurfrens. Whether it is a good time to ignite a rally or to surprise the market by pushing prices down to set the stage for the next accumulation exercise is entirely up to how the monkey wants to play this game. We can only wait for the story to be written. If she moves down, we already know what to do. Her 2.60s is the 1st BUY ZONE. If she wants to revisit the 2.50s and 2.40s, that is a buying opportunity not to be missed. But if she wants to take her playing field to a higher level, I will usually sit it out and wait for her to show us where her new trading range is first. After that then we move in with our equipment and trucks to erect a tentage to set up shop and draw up our Battle Plans on how to trade. If she moves up, the gungho ones amongst us can roll the dice with a small trade to satisfy your hunger and appetite for thrills and spills.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Dec-2023 09:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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If you are one of those who bought when she sailed to the southern most tip of India and sold at 2.82 to 2.84 when she reached Bay of Bengal and was blessed to have profits to count and now you are feeling fed up and frustated that she is stuck at 2.80 to 2.85 and wondering when will her next window of buying opportunity open up to us, and if you think that' s CHUM for you, what about those who are stuck at 2.86 to 2.93 for 3 to 8 months now and are wondering day after day whether to cut now and take the small loss and be done with it OR to continue to LOON in the hope that her next move will be an upmove to 2.95 for them to get out unscathed but if her next move is back down towards her 2.60-series, then how ? Chiak Lard. Dilemma Dilemma. Compare the two situations and ask yourself having to wait for a BUY window is more CHUM or stressing over whether to LOON on or to CUT now is more CHUM ? And you will count your blessings. |
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chewch1
Member |
05-Dec-2023 08:18
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Bro wave, any key dates to look for? Do you think 12 Dec will be a time as FOMC and US CPI data is out? Maybe it will result in a rally? Or any other rates that Ascendas report dividend / business results.. | ||||
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wavehunter
Supreme |
04-Dec-2023 13:37
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2023 13:24
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
This whole week whenever you check back to see where Ascendas is, most of the time you will see her at 2.82/2.83. If you have no difficulty ignoring these prices and you have the wisdom and the patience to wait, that' s fine. But if you are growing increasingly impatient and you are fed up of waiting and doing nothing and you want to buy something plus you want to buy NOW... not later, not next week, not next month but NOW, then ask yourself...okay you buy now at 2.82 or 2.83. So you have Ascendas in your portfolio. Entry price is 2.82 or 2.83. What next ? What are you going to do with your Ascendas ? What can you do with your Ascendas ? Queue to sell at 2.90 ? Sure you can. But will it be filled in the short term ? Meaning you will be stuck meantime. For how long ? For as long as it takes for Ascendas to trade to 2.90. But if she wants to go down to revisit her valley at 2.61 to 2.68 first, then your wait will be even longer. That' s the price you will have to pay for giving in to your itchy fingers. Resist that itch if you are itching. Have the patience to wait till the price is right. Entry price is everything for successful BUY & HOLD. On a day like today, can switch off your computer and go smell the flowers. Or do something which you need to do and have been putting off becoz you are lazy. Like decluttering your storeroom. Or packing and cleaning your boot. Or cutting the grass in your front yard. Or some gardening to spruce up your nursery. Or a half finished repainting job. Or some handyman work like changing a light bulb, light tube, unchoke a pipe or fixing a leak. Or change your bicycle tyres. Dont procrastinate anymore. Resolve to get it done today. And do it. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2023 09:34
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
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Her immediate Area of Resistance remains at 2.84 to 2.86. If she is unable to overcome this mountain, then her current trading range remains at 2.61 to 2.85. Her valley is at 2.61 to 2.68. If she goes there, bring out your trolley and buy. And if she throws a Warehouse Sale at the 2.50s, BUY MORE. And if she has a Crisis Sale at the 2.40s, we Ka Ka BUY. All that is good and valid if she stays at her current trading range. But if she breaks her immediate Area of Resistance to go higher towards her next Area of Resistance at 2.89 to 2.93, if you are gungho and you want to chase, carry on. But if you are conservative, dont participate in the first attempt to move higher. Observe first. Let her carve out and show us where her new trading range is. Then we trade that range. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2023 00:09
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Notice it says " Index Rebalancing" ? Meaning index stocks are affected. And those stocks you mentioned are index stocks. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
01-Dec-2023 00:06
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Bro Caesar, Thanks for the inputs. My eyes were on Ascendas only during pre-closing matching. Hence, I didnt notice that many other STI-component stocks were also seeing peculiar price movement and volume. Based on what you said, this time round it seems the window dressing was quite widespread. Which usually occurs when there is MSCI rebalancing. Could that be it ? Hmmm......I think so. 
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Caesar
Member |
30-Nov-2023 23:19
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Even those not in Top Volume like DBS, OCBC, UOB, Jardine C&C, Sembcorp Ind, HongkongLand, ST Engineering, etc
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Caesar
Member |
30-Nov-2023 22:59
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Maybe due to month-end portfolio rebalancing? A few counters had huge volume transacted at closing today. Such as Genting, Singtel, Keppel Corp, Wilmar, MLT, CapLand IntCom T, CapitaLandInvest, Frasers L&C Trust, Mapletree PanAsia Com Trust, CapLand Ascott Trust, Keppel Reit, and so on and so forth. Just check the counters in Top Volume.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2023 17:51
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Ascendas will not remain at the current trading range forever. Whether we like it or not, she will one day U-Turn from her downtrend of 27 months to start a new uptrend. When that happen, her trading range will rise too. Meaning her resistance levels will be at a higher price and her support levels will be higher too. Which means the same amount of money can buy less of her. Its lidat one. Boh Pian one. Meantime, for as long as she continues with her 27-month downtrend, her trading range is between the 2.60s (Area of Support) and the 2.80s (Area of Resistance). For myself, I dont mind if she continues with her downtrend for another 6 months whilst the Fed keeps interest rates at the current level - higher for longer. However, I dont think Ascendas will dip lower below 2.45. More like she will stabilize and stop trading lower and start to move sideways and hover at the current trading range from 2.60s to 2.80s with overshoots on the downside to the 2.40s and overshoots on the upside to the 2.90s. Until she is ready to start a new bull trend again. When that new bull trend starts, what we all will need is a mindset change. We must tune our mind to accept higher prices when the new higher trading range is carved out for us. One mistake novice traders are fond of is to live in the past and they tell themselves...." I will buy only if the price pulls back to $XXXX" which is a price at the old lower trading range. This type of thinking will lead to paralysis. You end up not buying even when the price is already at the new but higher support levels. And end up missing all the boats. So do prepare yourself for this mindset change. Trade what you see, not what you hope to see. If the trading range has shifted upwards to a higher playing field, dont tell yourself you will buy only if the price falls back to the lows of the previous trading range. You will miss the boat. Below is a Weekly Chart which shows how Ascendas' trading range do change over time. She wont stay at the same trading range forever. . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2023 17:49
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Price action during pre-closing matching was super crazy. The Last Done trade during regular trading hours was at 2.82. But during pre-closing matching, the indicative price was pushed up to 2.87 !!! In the last minute of pre-closing matching, the indicative price then fell to 2.86...then 2.85 and eventually closed at 2.84. You guys know how many shares changed hands at 2.84 in the final matching? 43,855,300 shares !!!  Wad Der Fug happened during those final minutes of matching ??? From Last Done price at 2.82 during regular trading, she gapped up 5 cts to show us 2.87 and she had remained there for more than a minute. If the monkey was the one buying, it doesnt make sense to me why pay so much more to accumulate when he could have filled up his orders at lower prices. So it got me thinking.  I can never prove what I am about to say. And we will never know the truth. Unless the monkey himself comes here to post and tell us what all that was about. One theory I have is - that gap-up in price from 2.82 to 2.87 was a massive SHORT SQUEEZE. For some reason, the monkey knew many traders had opened short positions in anticipation that the price will fall. So the monkey squeezed their balls until they all face green green at first followed by turned blue and some purple. Their balls having been squeezed so hard by the monkey until they all blue-black leow and Bo Pian they Kwai kwai came out to buyback to cover their shorts. The monkey then gladly sold to them and unloaded all his shit to them in the final matching trade. If true, then what happened today is shortists had their asses pierced really hard today. Like this..... .  
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wavehunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2023 12:24
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Any big bola here hand Sibeh itchy and Beh Loon leow must do some trading and dont mind hit and run scalping of a few bids? You can consider doing this - buy at 2.80 or 2.79. Run Road at 2.82...2.83 or 2.84.  So long as the monkey is still doing his shadow boxing to keep the price at 2.79 to 2.85, you will get a window to squeeze eggs from your chicken' s backside.  But if Sway Sway right after you buy the monkey also Siew Kang and dont want to play leow, then you Chiak Lard kena Tuar Khee HorLan.
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wavehunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2023 09:52
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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The monkey is still keeping the price at 2.80 to 2.85 region. Whether its accumulation or distribution....or left hand sell to right hand...... we dunno yet.  The 4 scenarios I mentioned yesterday are still valid. Personally, I prefer the 1st scenario - she fails to break the Area of Resistance at 2.84 to 2.86 and goes back down to revisit her support at 2.61 to 2.68. Why ar ? 2 reasons. 1st is - easier for us to trade. If she stays at the current trading range, her pattern we already know. Her Bawu we smell until dont want to smell leow. Where she is now, we are already familiar with and have found our comfort zone. We know what to do. There is more certainty. Just patiently wait for her to go to the 2.60-series and we cast our fishing net there. Sure will catch nice juicy garoupas, pomfrets and red snappers one. .  . 2nd reason is - when she is trading at a lower trading range, the same amount of capital we can buy more. Can buy more means can HUAT more also. You think about it. Say 100,000-men strong army. At $2.61, how many can you buy? If she is trading at a higher playing field and 1 share cost $2.84, how many can you buy? And if she is trading at an even higher playing field between $3.00 to $3.40 where 1 share cost $3.00...how many can you buy? Meantime, nothing to do. BUY & HOLD is lidat one. Get used to it. Most of the time there is nothing to do becoz pivotal to successful BUY & HOLD is we must enter at the right price. And the right price takes a long time to come. So we just have to BBT and WLL. BBT is Bun Bun Tan. WLL is Wait Long Long. Wait until our neck is as long as theirs.  . 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
30-Nov-2023 00:21
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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  Will her chart for the whole of 2024 look like this ??? Becoz the Fed has come to the end or is almost nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle, I wont discount the possibility that her 2024 chart may well look like the above chart. |
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