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CapLand Ascendas RE
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Ascendasreit
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wavehunter
Supreme |
14-Feb-2018 10:45
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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After touching LOW at 2.54 last Friday, she has been trading sideways at 2.57 to 2.61 and not going anywhere. The Area of Support at 2.44 to 2.53 is still valid. There may be another leg down in the days or weeks ahead. If it comes, the price will most likely retrace to my Area of Support. Meantime, share this article with you guys. ![]() If you were planning on putting your money back into stocks, you might want to hold on. That' s the message from Nader Naeimi of AMP Capital Investors Ltd. who' s still hanging on to the bulk of his cash reserves for another possible selloff by March. After an initial sharp selloff, equity markets typically have a brief recovery before another bout of sustained selling, said Naeimi, AMP' s head of dynamic markets who helps oversee about $120 billion at the firm. After moving some 30 percent of his assets  to cash  last year, Naeimi is waiting for that second round to occur before umping back in. " The plan is to buy in the second leg down, usually it' s best to wait for the markets to build a base before committing heavily back into the buy side" , Naeimi said in an interview  with Bloomberg Television.  " As we go to the Fed meeting March 9, I think there will be more potential volatility weakness." Still, Naeimi is dipping his toes back into the stock market and has started returning to some cyclical positions including energy, financials and Japanese equities. He is also impressed by the resilience of emerging market stocks and currencies during the rout and rising volatility. " That' s a great sign" , he said. " So this weakness, we' re using that weakness to buy into emerging market equities as well." Wishing everyone a Happy Chinese New Year.  |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
09-Feb-2018 11:31
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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![]() Those of you who cannot LOON anymore and want to jump in to buy at $2.53, be mindful that she may continue to dip towards the lower end of her Area of Support at $2.44. So do keep some ammo to average down. If dont buy at $2.53 and she rebound from there, we will miss the boat. But if she dips some more, we will have to languish meantime for entering too early. There is no free lunch in the stock market. Every move comes with a risk. It is part and parcel of the game. So where to buy, do it at your comfort level.  And may we all HUAT together !!! ![]() |
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Ray12888
Veteran |
08-Feb-2018 20:03
![]() Yells: "MoneyInTheChart com / blog" |
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Right now it is a market correction.  Most stock will drop especially blue chip stock. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
08-Feb-2018 13:22
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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She opened at 2.65. Hit 2.66. Then retreated to now 2.60 : 2.61... thereby trapping all those who rushed in to buy at 2.66, 2.65, 2.64 down to 2.61. What happened was people did a SELL INTO BOUNCE. Opportunistic karteks did a SHORT INTO BOUNCE. When a stock is on an uptrend, traders will do a BUY ON DIPs. When a stock is on a downtrend, traders will do a SELL ON BOUNCE.  So dont go chasing at the highs. When the tide suddenly ebbs, you will be stranded at the high point of the beach and left there high and dry to bake in the hot sun. ![]()   |
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Andy80
Senior |
08-Feb-2018 10:54
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Foundamental, your are right, however, CNY is just 1 week away.  I would think it might drop to 2.5+++ if mkt sentiment is weak. Hence, the purchase price should be around 2.5+++  
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Feb-2018 16:22
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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The market will have another leg down. This is awful news for those who are stuck but wonderful news for those who are looking to buy at basement prices. As she falls, prices will look attractive to buy. But this fall may stretch on for many days. So dont be in a hurry to buy. It wont be a 1-DAY SALE. This SALE will go on for a while. So remember not to pick bottom. Picking bottom is a luxury we can ill-afford. Becoz if you pick the bottom wrongly, the Bear will prick your bottom.  Wait for $2.44 to $2.53 region. We reassess the battlefield conditions when she gets there. Today' s range is 2.63 to 2.68. Now 2.65 : 2.66. The market threw a lifeline to those of you who bought last few days. Hope you grabbed the opportunity to get out.  |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Feb-2018 14:15
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Earlier I posted... Take DBS... opened at 26.40. Then went on to touch 26.44. After that, sellers all appeared in droves to take profits. Now 25.60 : 25.63... down 84 cts from Day High. Is that strong follow-up buying or strong follow-up selling? Now 25.31 : 25.32... down 37 cts from yesterday' s close and down $1.13 from Day High of 26.44.   |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Feb-2018 13:05
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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If this Dead Cat Bounce is giving you a lifeline to get out of your LONGs, you may want to consider taking it. Now at 2.66 : 2.67 after touching Day High at 2.68. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Feb-2018 11:04
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Looks like a Dead Cat Bounce to me. For a rebound to gain strength and momentum to transform into a full blown recovery rally, one key ingredient must be present -- strong follow-up buying. People must come out to chase the price in droves. Do you all see it? I dont. Take DBS... opened at 26.40. Then went on to touch 26.44. After that, sellers all appeared in droves to take profits. Now 25.60 : 25.63... down 84 cts from Day High. Is that strong follow-up buying or strong follow-up selling?   |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
07-Feb-2018 08:31
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Dow rebounded +567 pts last nite. The banks will rebound. KepCorp, SembMarine and SembCorp will rebound. And Ascendas and her 3 other sister Musketeers  will follow the broader market up. However, remain vigilant and stand near the door. Becoz it does not necessarily follow that the market will go on to recover from here. It may. But it may not. Becoz this bounce could well be a Dead Cat Bounce. Only time will tell and we can only wait for the story to unfold itself. |
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Clipper
Member |
06-Feb-2018 15:50
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Quote of the week: " Dont pick bottom. We will run out of bullets before the market runs out of bottoms."
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ahjuma
Member |
06-Feb-2018 15:19
Yells: "annyeonghaseyo" |
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![]() truly appreciate your sharing and advice - kamsahamidaa.  |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Feb-2018 15:14
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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When she has found her bottom... hopefully at 2.44 to 2.53... and she starts to level off or U-turn, check the broader market especially the banks and KepCorp...SembMarine and SembCorp to see if they are all rising. These are the market leaders. If they all rise in tandem, good chance they will pull the STI up along with them and this gives confidence to the rest of the blue chips and mid-caps to follow. Ascendas is not a market leader but a follower. You can already see how she fell when the broader market fell. Likewise when the broader market rise, she will follow and rise too. Bargain hunters and mid to long term investors as well as traders are all waiting to buy Ascendas and are taking their cues from the market leaders. You do the same. When she rise in response to market leaders rising, you can add more LONGs to average down. Prudence dictates that you dont show hands. Buy in stages just in case the recovery suddenly snaps and everything comes back down. That way, not having committed all your troops, it is easier and less painful to order a retreat, if you have to. Ascendas has a policy of paying dividends twice a year instead of every quarter. She will be paying 2 quarters of dividends in April and that makes her more attractive than the other 3 Musketeers.  Happy Trading to you.
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ahjuma
Member |
06-Feb-2018 14:38
Yells: "annyeonghaseyo" |
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i was a little too anxious and picked some yesterday - shall wait out to see her next low. thanks for sharing this gives me HOPE to pick up some more and hold for slightly longer!  ![]() |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Feb-2018 13:58
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Dont frontrun the market to pick the bottom. Let her show us her bottom. Dow Futures at -394 now. Earlier was at -589. How many more days will Dow fall before she finds the handbrake. This will provide the answer to how much lower will Ascendas fall before she reach the foot of the mountain. Imagine buying at 2.66/2.67 yesterday when she did an intraday bounce. Today, you will wish you had waited. Likewise, she is doing an intraday bounce now at 2.62 : 2.63  after touching Day Low at 2.58. But what if Dow falls again tonite? Then you will see a new low below 2.58... maybe 2.50-2.52 and you will wish you had waited too.  Dont pick bottom. We will run out of bullets before the market runs out of bottoms.
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Clipper
Member |
06-Feb-2018 12:39
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$2.44 will be her 52 weeks low ! That price is attractive with the April results/Div payout for 6 months. 
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wavehunter
Supreme |
06-Feb-2018 11:28
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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This is her updated chart as at today. Range so far is 2.58 to 2.64. Now 2.58 : 2.59. ![]() |
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ahjuma
Member |
05-Feb-2018 15:59
Yells: "annyeonghaseyo" |
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Thank you so much for your effort to provide the 50- and 200-ema scenarios! Really appreciate it. will monitor this closely for sure. |
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wavehunter
Supreme |
05-Feb-2018 14:57
Yells: "Trade what you see, not what you hope to see." |
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Okay. She kissed 2.65 this morn and is now chatting up with 2.66 : 2.67. What next? It depends on Wall Street. Becoz Ascendas is not a market leader but a market follower. If the broader market goes down, she will not escape the effects of bearish sentiments and will follow the market down as well. Dow fell 665 pts on Friday. The question I have been asking is...............is the worst over or is it on its way? DOW Futures have been in deep red all morning. It is now at -144 pts. It points to a weak opening at Wall Street tonite. People there are still feeling the jitters wondering if bargain hunters will come out to buy the dips to turn the market back up or more sellers will emerge and this pullback then gathers more speed and momentum and turns into a full blown correction. I cant tell you which is which. Coz I dont have a crystal ball. But I can offer you charts on what Ascendas did in the past when she fell from above and cut below her 20-ema and 50-ema to head towards her 200-ema. What she did on testing her 200-ema differed from time to time.  In the first chart, this is what she did. ![]() So if you buy today at 2.66/2.67 and this scenario plays out in the days ahead, you will have an opportunity to take profits when she trades above her 200-ema to head towards 2.70/2.71. In the 2nd scenario, this chart shows that after falling below her 200-ema, she found a bottom at just below her 200-ema and then traded there sideways for some time before recovering to back above her 200-ema. ![]() So if this scenario plays out, you will be trapped if she heads below her 200-ema and do sideway movements there meantime. And you will have to LOON till she recovers to back above her 200-ema. The 3rd chart is the worst case scenario where after falling towards her 200-ema and breaking it, she continued to fall further down. ![]() This one, if you buy now 2.66/2.67, you will have to LOON for a longer time not to mention languish over it and ...@#%$^! ...also.   |
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ahjuma
Member |
05-Feb-2018 11:21
Yells: "annyeonghaseyo" |
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quote: Her 200-ema is at 2.66 which is a much better entry level. We patiently wait for her. unquote she has reached her 200-ema today.  wavehunter, you are spot on.   |
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