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Of course it is incorrect. The point that sunsine' customers' production base is not limited to China and thus the inference that it' s not economical to buy from sunsine as it will involve freight is laughable. Sunsine sells to the world market and has worldwide sale network. The consideration is more than freight such as the products' quality, among others.
Aizai8 ( Date: 09-Jun-2017 17:34) Posted:
Some people in valuebuddies have pointed out that some of the assumptions in VW' s article below are incorrect.
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2006-post-140203.html#pid140203
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Some people in valuebuddies have pointed out that some of the assumptions in VW' s article below are incorrect.
https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-2006-post-140203.html#pid140203
Fair enough. Nothing wrong actually but one of the exit reasons cited was that treasury shares were placed out at a discount. Not sure you have increased your holding after the placement of treasury shares before the final exit? At work now, maybe I will take a deeper look at your opinion. Unlikely for me to reply further as I agree with you that this stock is getting hot. As a long term bull, I also don't wish punters to jump on the bandwagon and perhaps it is wise to keep my opinion to myself. Happy investing!
VW_Investments ( Date: 06-Jun-2017 15:20) Posted:
| Have been buyers before that post, just that it has garnered strong interest from $0.60 to $0.80, and applied the key consensus assumptions to a model. Well, not false news, but opinions. The company has good fundamentals, just looking at it from valuation perspective. Thanks for that. Cheers. |
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Have been buyers before that post, just that it has garnered strong interest from $0.60 to $0.80, and applied the key consensus assumptions to a model. Well, not false news, but opinions. The company has good fundamentals, just looking at it from valuation perspective. Thanks for that. Cheers.
Typo. Meant 24.5.17. Also noted your effort in spreading this piece.
HVRRVH ( Date: 06-Jun-2017 15:10) Posted:
If you have taken profit and exited then it's well and good. If you started shorting then good luck to you. Entered 24.4.17 exited today and straight away bashing the stock? Lol
VW_Investments ( Date: 06-Jun-2017 15:04) Posted:
We were long China Sunsine, but the market euphoria has us worried about the broader market valuation. Hence, we pared off positions and consider reasons why it would be wise to take profit now.
Our model yields 6% upside from current share price on assumptions more conservative than most houses that published reports on Sunsine. As we dabble this S-chip counter with cold hard cash, it pays off to be on the safer side: to increase our buffer of safety. We rely on CAPM to DCF model for a four year projection to 2020. Contrary to bullish forecast of ASP remaining at the 1Q2017 level, our top line assumptions rest on average selling price exhibiting a trend of 2-1 two years of declining ASP followed by one good year. Previous two cycles have supported this phenomenon, perhaps driven by closure and expansion of competitors, and the cyclicality of its main customers in the automotive industry.
Sell-side houses have certain assumptions that are stretching logic. For example, Research House A suggests electric vehicles to power the next leap of growth for Sunsine, as customers have a fresh round of ordering transiting from conventional vehicles to greener mode of transport. Tyres are simply transferable to the electric vehicles. Furthermore, with oil price staying low, why would consumers invest in cost-savings by switching to electric vehicles? It is likely end-consumers in China- main market that Sunsine serves- would care less about pollution anyways. Blue-chip customers that Sunsine mentioned it serves (eg Bridgestone, Goodyear, Michelin) have manufacturing bases not just in China. Thus, it is conceivable &ndash though Sunsine would not mention the ranking or percentage of revenue derived from each customer- that some of them may just account for a small proportion of its revenue.
Profitability may not increase despite elevating ASP. Customers usually sign...
(google VPMSingapore China Sunsine)
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If you have taken profit and exited then it's well and good. If you started shorting then good luck to you. Entered 24.4.17 exited today and straight away bashing the stock? Lol
VW_Investments ( Date: 06-Jun-2017 15:04) Posted:
We were long China Sunsine, but the market euphoria has us worried about the broader market valuation. Hence, we pared off positions and consider reasons why it would be wise to take profit now.
Our model yields 6% upside from current share price on assumptions more conservative than most houses that published reports on Sunsine. As we dabble this S-chip counter with cold hard cash, it pays off to be on the safer side: to increase our buffer of safety. We rely on CAPM to DCF model for a four year projection to 2020. Contrary to bullish forecast of ASP remaining at the 1Q2017 level, our top line assumptions rest on average selling price exhibiting a trend of 2-1 two years of declining ASP followed by one good year. Previous two cycles have supported this phenomenon, perhaps driven by closure and expansion of competitors, and the cyclicality of its main customers in the automotive industry.
Sell-side houses have certain assumptions that are stretching logic. For example, Research House A suggests electric vehicles to power the next leap of growth for Sunsine, as customers have a fresh round of ordering transiting from conventional vehicles to greener mode of transport. Tyres are simply transferable to the electric vehicles. Furthermore, with oil price staying low, why would consumers invest in cost-savings by switching to electric vehicles? It is likely end-consumers in China- main market that Sunsine serves- would care less about pollution anyways. Blue-chip customers that Sunsine mentioned it serves (eg Bridgestone, Goodyear, Michelin) have manufacturing bases not just in China. Thus, it is conceivable &ndash though Sunsine would not mention the ranking or percentage of revenue derived from each customer- that some of them may just account for a small proportion of its revenue.
Profitability may not increase despite elevating ASP. Customers usually sign...
(google VPMSingapore China Sunsine)
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We were long China Sunsine, but the market euphoria has us worried about the broader market valuation. Hence, we pared off positions and consider reasons why it would be wise to take profit now.
Our model yields 6% upside from current share price on assumptions more conservative than most houses that published reports on Sunsine. As we dabble this S-chip counter with cold hard cash, it pays off to be on the safer side: to increase our buffer of safety. We rely on CAPM to DCF model for a four year projection to 2020. Contrary to bullish forecast of ASP remaining at the 1Q2017 level, our top line assumptions rest on average selling price exhibiting a trend of 2-1 two years of declining ASP followed by one good year. Previous two cycles have supported this phenomenon, perhaps driven by closure and expansion of competitors, and the cyclicality of its main customers in the automotive industry.
Sell-side houses have certain assumptions that are stretching logic. For example, Research House A suggests electric vehicles to power the next leap of growth for Sunsine, as customers have a fresh round of ordering transiting from conventional vehicles to greener mode of transport. Tyres are simply transferable to the electric vehicles. Furthermore, with oil price staying low, why would consumers invest in cost-savings by switching to electric vehicles? It is likely end-consumers in China- main market that Sunsine serves- would care less about pollution anyways. Blue-chip customers that Sunsine mentioned it serves (eg Bridgestone, Goodyear, Michelin) have manufacturing bases not just in China. Thus, it is conceivable &ndash though Sunsine would not mention the ranking or percentage of revenue derived from each customer- that some of them may just account for a small proportion of its revenue.
Profitability may not increase despite elevating ASP. Customers usually sign...
(google VPMSingapore China Sunsine)
