OUE    Last:1.05    -0.01

Oue: Betting on good dividend this coming report.

Entered at 1.23 today hopefully for some quick bucks since the company willing to support it at 1.25 and above but still don't think it's worth above 1.50.

 

It will be better if it drops to $1 as  ' fundamentalist & technical analyst' has suggested earlier on. Why? If the lenders pull the carpet, or it delists it will be better for shareholders like me because
at the last audited report, its total assets in gateway cities like S' pore, US etc made up 71% of its total assets. Let' s say it has dropped to 60%. Its nav is presently 4.52. Minus 5ct dividend,it is
still worth $4.37. Let' s take 60% of its nav -- that is still worth 2.60. Let' s drop this further to 50%. It is still worth $2. Its convertible bond is priced at 1.85. Let it drop to 1.30, 1.20, 1.10 or even 1,
I' ll take my time to calculate its worth to re-enter. If it isn' t a stock with valuable ppties, I wdn' t dare to do it. It' s foolhardy.     wyeo.



 

 

And it has dropped 5cts since the result is out 🤦 ‍ ♂ ️

 

I don' t think it has any problem in refinancing its 1.3b due in the next 12 months. Out of this, .5b is due to it because of its wholly-owned subsidiaries, the rest due to its reit & healthcare. Why
no problem? Its ebit is 330m with its borrowing cost at 139m. Let' s say the ebit goes down by 30%, it still has ample bullets to finance its interest. Secondly, it still has 3 ppties including the US
Tower worth $1.23b with 477m cash at end Dec.' 19 not counting the 100m from the sale of Gemdale shares.  Well, I' m disappointed at the 5c dividend.   Why? next instalment.   wyeo.

 

Time to pay up....

As at 31 December 2019, the Group had borrowings amounting to $1.3 billion that will be due in the
next twelve months. $0.6 billion and $0.2 billion of these borrowings pertain to borrowings of OUE C-
REIT and OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited respectively which will mature in the second half of 2020. The
balance of approximately $0.5 billion of the borrowings pertain to the borrowings of the Group?s wholly-owned subsidiaries and negotiations to complete the refinancing are in progress.

lausk22      ( Date: 21-Feb-2020 10:59) Posted: Share price retreated after a minor boost by annual financial report at opening. Outlook doesn' t look encouraging.

 

Share price retreated after a minor boost by annual financial report at opening. Outlook doesn' t look encouraging.

 

You are realistic and yes you got it right, it is 5cts.

Farmer      ( Date: 20-Feb-2020 16:44) Posted: Dun hv high hope for divd this yr since cpy last yr payout was 13cts. Will be happy if got 5cts

 

Dun hv high hope for divd this yr since cpy last yr payout was 13cts.
Will be happy if got 5cts

 

I calculate (see below) 11c dividend from 774m of 3 ppty sales & a cashflow of 884m from the sale of Gemdale. At an Nav of 4.49, & at 1.44, it is trading at a 68% discount.
If they pay just 7c dividend, the yield is 4.86%. You get the dividend in May, about 3 months, so you ' ve to multiply the yield by 4 times.  They own 68%. It is likely they' ll pay
themselves & shareholders a good dividend as they do so when they sell their ppties at a profit. Its result ' ll be out soon as OueLippo H/C has just come out.     wyeo.

 

You don' t need 1 to 2 months to know as said below. You sh know by the end of this week or next week. Lmirt' s result will  be out on19Feb. This sh. be followed by Oue Lippo H/C
& then Oue.  wyeo

 

The gearing allowed for reits is 45% based on total debt to total assets. Oue' s total debt to total assets as at last quarterly report is: 4207.2m to 10963.4 = 38.37%     weo.

 

No worry, oue last 5-6 years average divd yield is ~ 4 to 5%
Their normal divd pa is 3 cts(interim + final), exclude any special divd


 

lausk22      ( Date: 18-Feb-2020 14:21) Posted: We' ll know in one or two months time. Hope OUE BOD is among the enlightened majority shareholders who will be fair to minority shareholders There is this crisis of faith in regard to family dominated managements, as in recent time several such managements have kept dividend payments low or zero, although the companies made good profits or extraordinary gains, but minority shareholders ended up shortchanged.

 

Oue key ratios  by OCBC I R , FY18  gearing > 70%

ytthong1951      ( Date: 18-Feb-2020 13:43) Posted: Their gearing is not higher than reits & they ' ve as good ppties or even better than the average reits to back them up.     wyeo.

 

We' ll know in one or two months time. Hope OUE BOD is among the enlightened majority shareholders who will be fair to minority shareholders
There is this crisis of faith in regard to family dominated managements, as in recent time several such managements have kept dividend payments low or zero, although the companies made good profits or extraordinary gains, but minority shareholders ended up shortchanged.

 

Their gearing is not higher than reits & they ' ve as good ppties or even better than the average reits to back them up.     wyeo.

 

Let' s say 7c dividend ' ll do. 7c x 902m = 63.4m. This is only 7.2% of the cashflow in of $884m. They still ' ve plenty to go around & since they own 68% of Oue they may want to be
generous to other shareholders too. After all, they did pay special dividends when they make profits from selling ppties. They state this in their dividend payments.     wyeo. 

 

Bumper divds?...Hope so.
I remember the Chairman said something like parring down debts after ppty sold when being asked by shareholder about oue' s high gearing during last year' s AGM.

ytthong1951      ( Date: 18-Feb-2020 10:19) Posted: We' re going away & away from my central argument that there' s a bumper ppty sales last year & I' m betting there can be a bumper dividend round the corner.     wyeo

 

We' re going away & away from my central argument that there' s a bumper ppty sales last year & I' m betting there can be a bumper dividend round the corner.     wyeo

 

OUE sold Gemdale below HKD $1. After the sale the stock has shot up to HKD $1.30. Perhaps it' s a miscalculation of Gemdale real value or current market sentiments.

noslen      ( Date: 17-Feb-2020 22:47) Posted: Was trying not to laugh or make any comment in OUE thread but can't help it.... "they' ve not really invested in China.", so what is Gemdale properties into? 🤣 🤣 in fact Gemdale is now trading at its 52 weeks high and that's one of the smarter investment they had made IN CHINA 🤭 🤭

 

So buying Alibaba shares in NYSE would not be investing in a chinese company 😅 😅

By the way, recent sudden plunge of a few HK listed china companies have raised concerns over the corporate governance, so not sure about the stringent part though.

Anyway, to me, whether you put in money directly into China or put your money into chinese company with 100% of their businesses in China, that's not much difference. If the company goes bust, you get nothing back.

ytthong1951      ( Date: 18-Feb-2020 08:56) Posted: Sinking your money into China as a foreigner is different from investing in a Hong Kong-listed stock. Hong Kong is known to be as stringent as Singapore in its jurisdiction over its stocks or even more. Besides some land in Chengdu & involvement through Oue Lippo H/C, I ' ve not known of any other investment in China. Perhaps, you can tell us more.     wyeo.