YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.225    -0.005

YZJFH - potentially rewarding

You are right @volvo125 I guess I am just not used to seeing a Chairman be so loose with describing forecasts and what he intends to do so publicly and in a relatively smaller publications article. Would be very happy to see EPS at $0.06 for FY22 but am cautious on their 2H22 performance. The two reports from Jul and Aug could be relatively outdated in terms of earnings forecasts given the more recent deterioiration of macro fundamentals in China. 

volvo125      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 18:38) Posted: Er ... No, RenYL was only giving an example based on the past 3 years known steady EPS performance if the 40% payout ratio were to apply. Toe had already guided the FY22 NPAT at ~$220m with the analysts at Lim& Tan (report dated 12 Jul 2022) and CIMB (report dated 15 Aug 2022). The estimated EPS for FY22 will likely work out to be $0.06 at the latest known float of 3690m. Again ... No, an Insider is free to buy the company shares as long as it is not during sensitive period, such as pending the release of news that are material in nature (FY and 1H release, major order wins, M& A ...etc), and also as long as he reports the transaction to SGX within stipulated  time frame. So Ren can buy and say nothing until he reports, or he can say he intend to buy and then he really buy, or he can say he intend to buy but no action ... regardless, as long as his buy action does not precede an insider privileged news or event that has material effect to the coy. MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 17:37) Posted: Excerpts from The Edge:  Assuming an EPS of 8 cents, with a payout ratio of 40%, will mean a dividend of 3.2 cents, which will translate into a yield of 9.41% at 34 cents. This is a more generous dividend policy than 90% of all Singapore-listed companies, claims Ren. Is Ren blatantly providing his own forecast for FY22 earnings (8 cents EPS) via The Edge? Is this considered price sensitive material non-public information that should not be comminicated via a subscriber only article on the Egde and instead via SGXNet? He appears to communicate that 8 cents EPS is possible despite the macro environment in China?  Regardless, he is quite bullish and I am delighted to see it.  When asked, Ren says that once the 10% mark is reached, he is prepared to move in and increase his personal stake, while seeking another mandate from shareholders to continue the buyback. Ren notes that the share price, at current levels, is just a fraction of YZJFHs book value of $1.07 as at June 30. " You are paying just 30 cents to buy $1 worth of assets." Again, is this considered price sensitive material non-public information? A Chairman is outright saying that he is preparing to buy back from the market in a subscriber only article on The Edge rather than via SGXNet.  Regardless, he is extremely bullish and I am happy to see it.  Vested and looking to further accumulate at these levels. Although I am of the view that EPS for FY22 will be closer to 5 cents given the situation in China... See below:  Worst case scenario: NPAT: $136,379,000 (1H22) + $50,000,000 (2H22 worse case) = $186,379,000 Outstanding number of shares:  3,937,589,220 - 259,611,100 (treasury shares) = 3,677,978,120  Dividends Based on 40% NPAT Payout: $186,379,000 X 0.4 = $74,551,600 Dividend per Share: ($74,551,600)/(3,677,978,120) = $0.0203 Dividend Yield: $0.0203/$0.33 = 0.062 (6.2%) Worse case scenario valuation: P/E 6.8x, P/B 0.3x, Div Yield 6.2%

 

Er ... No, RenYL was only giving an example based on the past 3 years known steady EPS performance if the 40% payout ratio were to apply. Toe had already guided the FY22 NPAT at ~$220m with the analysts at Lim& Tan (report dated 12 Jul 2022) and CIMB (report dated 15 Aug 2022). The estimated EPS for FY22 will likely work out to be $0.06 at the latest known float of 3690m.

Again ... No, an Insider is free to buy the company shares as long as it is not during sensitive period, such as pending the release of news that are material in nature (FY and 1H release, major order wins, M& A ...etc), and also as long as he reports the transaction to SGX within stipulated  time frame. So Ren can buy and say nothing until he reports, or he can say he intend to buy and then he really buy, or he can say he intend to buy but no action ... regardless, as long as his buy action does not precede an insider privileged news or event that has material effect to the coy.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 17:37) Posted: Excerpts from The Edge:  Assuming an EPS of 8 cents, with a payout ratio of 40%, will mean a dividend of 3.2 cents, which will translate into a yield of 9.41% at 34 cents. This is a more generous dividend policy than 90% of all Singapore-listed companies, claims Ren. Is Ren blatantly providing his own forecast for FY22 earnings (8 cents EPS) via The Edge? Is this considered price sensitive material non-public information that should not be comminicated via a subscriber only article on the Egde and instead via SGXNet? He appears to communicate that 8 cents EPS is possible despite the macro environment in China?  Regardless, he is quite bullish and I am delighted to see it.  When asked, Ren says that once the 10% mark is reached, he is prepared to move in and increase his personal stake, while seeking another mandate from shareholders to continue the buyback. Ren notes that the share price, at current levels, is just a fraction of YZJFHs book value of $1.07 as at June 30. " You are paying just 30 cents to buy $1 worth of assets." Again, is this considered price sensitive material non-public information? A Chairman is outright saying that he is preparing to buy back from the market in a subscriber only article on The Edge rather than via SGXNet.  Regardless, he is extremely bullish and I am happy to see it.  Vested and looking to further accumulate at these levels. Although I am of the view that EPS for FY22 will be closer to 5 cents given the situation in China... See below:  Worst case scenario: NPAT: $136,379,000 (1H22) + $50,000,000 (2H22 worse case) = $186,379,000 Outstanding number of shares:  3,937,589,220 - 259,611,100 (treasury shares) = 3,677,978,120  Dividends Based on 40% NPAT Payout: $186,379,000 X 0.4 = $74,551,600 Dividend per Share: ($74,551,600)/(3,677,978,120) = $0.0203 Dividend Yield: $0.0203/$0.33 = 0.062 (6.2%) Worse case scenario valuation: P/E 6.8x, P/B 0.3x, Div Yield 6.2%

 

assume 8c profit if real will be good. dividend will be more then my expectation of 2c.

 

Thank you for highlighting the article.

As investors we can at least do two things:
One, support the company, buy at this low price level with spare cash. Two, be patience.

Hope you all earn big digits next year. Endurance is needed.

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 17:37) Posted: Excerpts from The Edge:  Assuming an EPS of 8 cents, with a payout ratio of 40%, will mean a dividend of 3.2 cents, which will translate into a yield of 9.41% at 34 cents. This is a more generous dividend policy than 90% of all Singapore-listed companies, claims Ren. Is Ren blatantly providing his own forecast for FY22 earnings (8 cents EPS) via The Edge? Is this considered price sensitive material non-public information that should not be comminicated via a subscriber only article on the Egde and instead via SGXNet? He appears to communicate that 8 cents EPS is possible despite the macro environment in China?  Regardless, he is quite bullish and I am delighted to see it.  When asked, Ren says that once the 10% mark is reached, he is prepared to move in and increase his personal stake, while seeking another mandate from shareholders to continue the buyback. Ren notes that the share price, at current levels, is just a fraction of YZJFHs book value of $1.07 as at June 30. " You are paying just 30 cents to buy $1 worth of assets." Again, is this considered price sensitive material non-public information? A Chairman is outright saying that he is preparing to buy back from the market in a subscriber only article on The Edge rather than via SGXNet.  Regardless, he is extremely bullish and I am happy to see it.  Vested and looking to further accumulate at these levels. Although I am of the view that EPS for FY22 will be closer to 5 cents given the situation in China... See below:  Worst case scenario: NPAT: $136,379,000 (1H22) + $50,000,000 (2H22 worse case) = $186,379,000 Outstanding number of shares:  3,937,589,220 - 259,611,100 (treasury shares) = 3,677,978,120  Dividends Based on 40% NPAT Payout: $186,379,000 X 0.4 = $74,551,600 Dividend per Share: ($74,551,600)/(3,677,978,120) = $0.0203 Dividend Yield: $0.0203/$0.33 = 0.062 (6.2%) Worse case scenario valuation: P/E 6.8x, P/B 0.3x, Div Yield 6.2%

 

Excerpts from The Edge: 

Assuming an EPS of 8 cents, with a payout ratio of 40%, will mean a dividend of 3.2 cents, which will translate into a yield of 9.41% at 34 cents. This is a more generous dividend policy than 90% of all Singapore-listed companies, claims Ren.

Is Ren blatantly providing his own forecast for FY22 earnings (8 cents EPS) via The Edge? Is this considered price sensitive material non-public information that should not be comminicated via a subscriber only article on the Egde and instead via SGXNet? He appears to communicate that 8 cents EPS is possible despite the macro environment in China? 

Regardless, he is quite bullish and I am delighted to see it. 

When asked, Ren says that once the 10% mark is reached, he is prepared to move in and increase his personal stake, while seeking another mandate from shareholders to continue the buyback. Ren notes that the share price, at current levels, is just a fraction of YZJFHs book value of $1.07 as at June 30. " You are paying just 30 cents to buy $1 worth of assets."

Again, is this considered price sensitive material non-public information? A Chairman is outright saying that he is preparing to buy back from the market in a subscriber only article on The Edge rather than via SGXNet. 

Regardless, he is extremely bullish and I am happy to see it. 

Vested and looking to further accumulate at these levels. Although I am of the view that EPS for FY22 will be closer to 5 cents given the situation in China... See below: 

Worst case scenario: NPAT: $136,379,000 (1H22) + $50,000,000 (2H22 worse case) = $186,379,000

Outstanding number of shares:  3,937,589,220 - 259,611,100 (treasury shares) = 3,677,978,120 

Dividends Based on 40% NPAT Payout: $186,379,000 X 0.4 = $74,551,600

Dividend per Share: ($74,551,600)/(3,677,978,120) = $0.0203

Dividend Yield: $0.0203/$0.33 = 0.062 (6.2%)

Worse case scenario valuation: P/E 6.8x, P/B 0.3x, Div Yield 6.2%

 

Think must announce dividend then funds start to buy in.

blizzzz      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 15:57) Posted: China start to relax the covid policy about the international flight reducting quarantine times, triggering huge surge in their china stock market. This YZJ Fin, Dows up 1200 points, they can give reason it is USA angmoh market so not related to YZJ Fin much and their price not move. Now China stock market shoot up, this YZJ Fin still not up? LOL, Huh, so must wait indian market up? Is it? then YZJ Fin will up?

 

YZJF has 2 threads. Posters in this particular thread have tend to provide rationals in their messages/analysis, which have been valuable unlike the other thread which seems can' t wait to see YZJF goes to zero. Well, until recently it seems that this thread also started to attract posters who doesn' t seem to even know fundamental of how the company work. For example, keep asking for ' announcement of dividend' , and implied that the absent of which mean the company talk cock and can' t be taken seriously. I mean, an investor would know that they already announced the committment of paying our 40% eps but this has to be done only until end of FY. Some said YZJF is in banking business. Some said many bad loan (hello, only 1% non PL ok). They also singled out single day' s price movement to ' spin' stories, like today whole market up but YZJF didn' t move (so lousy, no good, bad company?) but fact remain a lot of companies also didn' t move. True, admittedly YZJF is not in limelight now but as the thread title suggests, it is has potential to be rewarding. Just look at YZJS, at one point also out of favour but since the confirmation of good business prospects, the share price has reacted accordingly. For YZJF, this would come soonest at the end of 1st FY and if not, maybe 2-3 years down the road. I mean, if ones want to call it quit now and sell off, it is ones' perogative to do so. Share with us the reasons and we will be appreciative but mindless ' shouting' , talking down the stock [eg, 20 cents!, no reason given] are useless comments. 

 

Even China Aviation G92, up 0.35 already with the good news of china starting to relax the international flight quarantine times.

Capitaland China Trust au8u also up 0.30 today.

This YZJ FH really stagnant? Face Palm 

 

China start to relax the covid policy about the international flight reducting quarantine times, triggering huge surge in their china stock market.

This YZJ Fin, Dows up 1200 points, they can give reason it is USA angmoh market so not related to YZJ Fin much and their price not move.

Now China stock market shoot up, this YZJ Fin still not up? LOL, Huh, so must wait indian market up? Is it? then YZJ Fin will up?

 

When YZJFH went up, you will laugh and roll. Just wait, YZJFH will go up, YZJSB waited 12 years already, now only look good but, I bet when YZJFH go up, YZJSB will go down, same funds same BB.

 

Not YZJ FH only also Starhub, two brothers one from PRC & one from Singapore, shameless the two.

Amateurinvestor      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 07:46) Posted: Today expecting will be a very sad day as Dow jones flying, all Singapore stocks except this YZJFH will fly too as YZJFH still growing wings

 

YF8 will fly soon. SMR coming.

Amateurinvestor      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 07:46) Posted: Today expecting will be a very sad day as Dow jones flying, all Singapore stocks except this YZJFH will fly too as YZJFH still growing wings

 

Good analysis. Thanks.

volvo125      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 13:02) Posted: There is a 6 months grace period to dispose and cancel the excess shares so the coy can ceratainly continue to buy beyond the 10% while making plans to cancel the excess shares or progressively cancel the excess shares or issue out the excess shares. Say in the case of YFH with an initial float of 3950m, if the 395m limit is reached, the new float will be 3555m. The coy can continue to buy beyond 395m but must dispose or cancel or issue out (eg. for dividend payout or M& A investment) the excess shares within 6 months to restore back the 10% limit. Example, if YFH continues to sbb 20m more shares beyond the max, the coy could issue out these 20m shares for dividend payout (the original float remains unchanged at 3950m with 395m still the max) or cancel ~22m  (the original float will permanently reduce to 3928m with 393m now become the max). Not stackable means there is only one 10% limit at all time regardless the coy will exhaust it with a year or more than a year, although there is a 6 month grace to restore if exceed. Well, you may view this 6 month grace to restore the exceed as " temporary stackable" ...    MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 12:11) Posted: Thank you @volvo125 for your continued insights. May I please clarify, should the 10% share buyback limit be reached, the Company will then be required to cancel the purchased treasury shares before seeking a fresh mandate at the next AGM? Slightly confused on the " stackable" example you mention. Do you mean that should the Company buyback 10% of its shares, it cannot renew the share buyback mandate until it cancels the shares that it has purchased? I was wondering if the Company could continually renew the sharebuyback mandate without cancelling treasury shares each year.  Thank you for clarifying.

 

There is a 6 months grace period to dispose and cancel the excess shares so the coy can ceratainly continue to buy beyond the 10% while making plans to cancel the excess shares or progressively cancel the excess shares or issue out the excess shares.

Say in the case of YFH with an initial float of 3950m, if the 395m limit is reached, the new float will be 3555m. The coy can continue to buy beyond 395m but must dispose or cancel or issue out (eg. for dividend payout or M& A investment) the excess shares within 6 months to restore back the 10% limit. Example, if YFH continues to sbb 20m more shares beyond the max, the coy could issue out these 20m shares for dividend payout (the original float remains unchanged at 3950m with 395m still the max) or cancel ~22m  (the original float will permanently reduce to 3928m with 393m now become the max).

Not stackable means there is only one 10% limit at all time regardless the coy will exhaust it with a year or more than a year, although there is a 6 month grace to restore if exceed. Well, you may view this 6 month grace to restore the exceed as " temporary stackable" ...   

MambaFinancial89      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 12:11) Posted: Thank you @volvo125 for your continued insights. May I please clarify, should the 10% share buyback limit be reached, the Company will then be required to cancel the purchased treasury shares before seeking a fresh mandate at the next AGM? Slightly confused on the " stackable" example you mention. Do you mean that should the Company buyback 10% of its shares, it cannot renew the share buyback mandate until it cancels the shares that it has purchased? I was wondering if the Company could continually renew the sharebuyback mandate without cancelling treasury shares each year.  Thank you for clarifying.  volvo125      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 11:39) Posted: RenYL has answered one of the key concern on the 10% SBB limit for many investors during The Edge Interview that we did not have a chance to raise during the recent L& T webinar with Liu Hua. RenYL openly declared that he would move in to increase his personal stake while seeking a fresh SBB mandate once the prevailing mandate is maxed out.  It is certainly unrealistic for investors to expect Ren coming in to progressively buy up another 100m~200m shares as that would involve a lot of personal cash and would also likely trigger the > 30% takover code. So like in the case of Toe, Sutat and Chua, Ren' s buying is likely symbolic in nature with a few millions shares mainly to instill market and investor confidence. The key is still very much about his comment on seeking a " fresh mandate" . The annual 10% SBB limit imposed by SGX is closely tied to the 10% limit on Treasury shares under the Company Act.  It is the Company Act that defined the SGX limit imposed, not the other way. This 10% Treasury shares holding limit stipulates that the company must either dispose or cancel the excess shares within a 6 months grace period. So this 10% limit is an absolute limit at all time, not stackable as in 10% limit in year 1 will become 10+10=20% limit in year 2 ... etc. So, Ren' s open acknowledgement of seeking a fresh mandate once the 1st SBB mandate is maxed out means (implicitly implies) shares cancellation is definitely on the table going forward. Shares cancellation means all the perceived shareholder enhancement benefits tied to NAV, EPS and DPS will be permanent and sealed. This is ultra good news.

 

RenYL had in July during a ZaoBao interview openly declared a ~3 years target to seek additional CDR listing. Seeking CDR listing will require YFH to attain an average market cap of at least rmb20b, or ~ > sgd3.9bil, or ~$1.05 per share at current float (~3700m). So RenYL has unspokenly set a target to drive YFH to hit $1.05 in =/> 3 years in an environment where he is well aware that SGX stock market pool is small and lacks liquidity and hence listco valuations are not high.

YFH already has in place the fundamental matrices in operational terms such as capital structure, financial and organisation resources, knowhow and connections and AUM to drive its current business tranformation to recycle DIs to new investment avenues, getting the QDLP licence to raise RMB for offshore investments, SBB with high probabillity shares cancellation ... etc. Market Cap is tied to share price and is a value perception accorded to the listco. So like what RenYL said at the end of the recent The Edge interview, let' s see how and what he will do going forward to increase the value perception of YFH.
 

pasttime      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 08:34) Posted: if one look for the fun of daily up and down then fun one will get. money earn very little. as within a short time frame most stock will not move much. i hope for a $1 within 5 years. these are investors in startup at near to harvest time. when their farming eventually bear fruits in a few years people will believe. vested in small portion of one abilty to avoid risk (in case see wrongly) vested long long time to allow for effort to bear fruits. plant veg 1 moth can harvest but not much profit. plant durian tree need to wait at least 3-5 years to enjoy durian. enjoy the market up for a while.

 

Thank you @volvo125 for your continued insights.

May I please clarify, should the 10% share buyback limit be reached, the Company will then be required to cancel the purchased treasury shares before seeking a fresh mandate at the next AGM?

Slightly confused on the " stackable" example you mention. Do you mean that should the Company buyback 10% of its shares, it cannot renew the share buyback mandate until it cancels the shares that it has purchased? I was wondering if the Company could continually renew the sharebuyback mandate without cancelling treasury shares each year. 

Thank you for clarifying. 

volvo125      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 11:39) Posted: RenYL has answered one of the key concern on the 10% SBB limit for many investors during The Edge Interview that we did not have a chance to raise during the recent L& T webinar with Liu Hua. RenYL openly declared that he would move in to increase his personal stake while seeking a fresh SBB mandate once the prevailing mandate is maxed out.  It is certainly unrealistic for investors to expect Ren coming in to progressively buy up another 100m~200m shares as that would involve a lot of personal cash and would also likely trigger the > 30% takover code. So like in the case of Toe, Sutat and Chua, Ren' s buying is likely symbolic in nature with a few millions shares mainly to instill market and investor confidence. The key is still very much about his comment on seeking a " fresh mandate" . The annual 10% SBB limit imposed by SGX is closely tied to the 10% limit on Treasury shares under the Company Act.  It is the Company Act that defined the SGX limit imposed, not the other way. This 10% Treasury shares holding limit stipulates that the company must either dispose or cancel the excess shares within a 6 months grace period. So this 10% limit is an absolute limit at all time, not stackable as in 10% limit in year 1 will become 10+10=20% limit in year 2 ... etc. So, Ren' s open acknowledgement of seeking a fresh mandate once the 1st SBB mandate is maxed out means (implicitly implies) shares cancellation is definitely on the table going forward. Shares cancellation means all the perceived shareholder enhancement benefits tied to NAV, EPS and DPS will be permanent and sealed. This is ultra good news.

 

Dont listen to him lah, today up 1 bit also very difficult, bull shit what the assets is 100+ really a shameless ah long ren

blizzzz      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 11:52) Posted: The most funny part is today Shanghai index and Shenzhen index up a lot too, Ren said some investors perceive YZJ FH as china related stock, but why today not even up 0.01? LOL I see Capitaland China trust also up a lot today

 

The most funny part is today Shanghai index and Shenzhen index up a lot too,

Ren said some investors perceive YZJ FH as china related stock, but why today not even up 0.01? LOL

I see Capitaland China trust also up a lot today

 

Dow up 1200+, SGX up 45+, YZJ FH not even can up 1 bit.  Ah rong reng talk a lot really very shameless,  If this is 100+ assets, many rich men had fighted for 50 cents to take over.

Heng5335      ( Date: 11-Nov-2022 08:33) Posted: 机 会 在 绝 望 中 诞 生 ， 在 狂 欢 中 终 止

 

RenYL has answered one of the key concern on the 10% SBB limit for many investors during The Edge Interview that we did not have a chance to raise during the recent L& T webinar with Liu Hua. RenYL openly declared that he would move in to increase his personal stake while seeking a fresh SBB mandate once the prevailing mandate is maxed out. 

It is certainly unrealistic for investors to expect Ren coming in to progressively buy up another 100m~200m shares as that would involve a lot of personal cash and would also likely trigger the > 30% takover code. So like in the case of Toe, Sutat and Chua, Ren' s buying is likely symbolic in nature with a few millions shares mainly to instill market and investor confidence. The key is still very much about his comment on seeking a " fresh mandate" .

The annual 10% SBB limit imposed by SGX is closely tied to the 10% limit on Treasury shares under the Company Act.  It is the Company Act that defined the SGX limit imposed, not the other way. This 10% Treasury shares holding limit stipulates that the company must either dispose or cancel the excess shares within a 6 months grace period. So this 10% limit is an absolute limit at all time, not stackable as in 10% limit in year 1 will become 10+10=20% limit in year 2 ... etc.

So, Ren' s open acknowledgement of seeking a fresh mandate once the 1st SBB mandate is maxed out means (implicitly implies) shares cancellation is definitely on the table going forward. Shares cancellation means all the perceived shareholder enhancement benefits tied to NAV, EPS and DPS will be permanent and sealed. This is ultra good news.