Post Reply
10181-10200 of 10239
Good to buy at this time, potential for growth is quite good.
Yesterday was a Sunday and I am a bit freer and suddenly recall this thread. Then decided that henceforth, I will ignore the other thread. Reason is rather quite self explanatory if serious investors just take a look at that thread.
GoldenPig ( Date: 19-Sep-2022 14:31) Posted:
I guess you' re referring to someone in the other thread - A fresh page.
Nvm lah. He provides free entertainment. 😆
baybefaze ( Date: 19-Sep-2022 13:57) Posted:
There' s one " kaypoh" here who talk alot and thinks he knows
everything about stock market than anyone here in this forum.
This saying is so very true
empty vessels make the most noise
|
|
|
|
I guess you' re referring to someone in the other thread - A fresh page.
Nvm lah. He provides free entertainment. 😆
baybefaze ( Date: 19-Sep-2022 13:57) Posted:
There' s one " kaypoh" here who talk alot and thinks he knows
everything about stock market than anyone here in this forum.
This saying is so very true
empty vessels make the most noise
|
|
There' s one " kaypoh" here who talk alot and thinks he knows
everything about stock market than anyone here in this forum.
This saying is so very true
empty vessels make the most noise
No big surprises market movement wise. These few days before Fed rate decision all stocks should face downward pressure. Of course, we may have meme stocks equivalent here in SGX market but don' t bet on it. I will join 37.5 queues and see what happen comes this Friday. If added succcessfully by then, then I will reach my full allocatioin for this stock.
don' t know about 8% ROE. but with continue buy back at these low price. it will surely hit an increased of 8% NTA per share. due to %ROE + reduced number of shares.
Key hurdle is 42c, hope it can clear 42c
ss2017. ( Date: 18-Sep-2022 12:55) Posted:
| Based on world mkt recovery and YZJFH technical trend,
this counter can break 40 resistant line next week.
Hope to see it will accomplish with price up with high volume.
Luck is on long term holders' side. |
|
Based on world mkt recovery and YZJFH technical trend,
this counter can break 40 resistant line next week.
Hope to see it will accomplish with price up with high volume.
Luck is on long term holders' side.
I also assumed it could hit 8% ROE straight away this year. Likely management also thought they could. Then the equity markets went into a tailspin and everyone has to adjust expectations after 1H results came out. 😅
Silver lining is even the all-time-high price is at a nice discount to Net Asset Value and can still give handsome long term rewards.
I have 2 hopes.
1) Share price goes down or remains depressed for longer so we can continue to accumulate at lower prices whenever we have the funds. Likely cannot get at such low prices again after current crisis is over and company starts paying dividends.
2) Management really delivers at least 8% ROE in the medium term and raise its target for the long term.
Traders, whether they long or short this counter, will of course have different views and hopes.
ss2017. ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 15:13) Posted:
Thank you for pointing out the correction of % ROE this year.
GoldenPig ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 14:44) Posted:
YZJFH will not hit 8% ROE target this year. May take a while for company to reach 8-10% ROE target range. I remember management gives itself 3 years.
Share price should take a few years to reach $1.50~$2. Need time for excess returns to be ploughed back into investments and compound returns year after year. Increase in value will be slow at first but escalate as time passes. If management executes its strategies successfully, the asset value and share price increase should follow exponential curves.
Bottomline is we need to be patient and sit tight for a few years if we want the really big returns in the long term.
I remember reading that 90% of Warren Buffet' s wealth came after he was 50 years old. Or was it 60 |
|
|
|
Yes, cannot aim for fast returns. That' s the mindset of traders. Therefore, it is reassuring that while growing the company, in the meantime, the management has committed to pay dividends so investors who are in for the long term can wait while enjoying some returns.
GoldenPig ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 14:44) Posted:
YZJFH will not hit 8% ROE target this year. May take a while for company to reach 8-10% ROE target range. I remember management gives itself 3 years.
Share price should take a few years to reach $1.50~$2. Need time for excess returns to be ploughed back into investments and compound returns year after year. Increase in value will be slow at first but escalate as time passes. If management executes its strategies successfully, the asset value and share price increase should follow exponential curves.
Bottomline is we need to be patient and sit tight for a few years if we want the really big returns in the long term.
I remember reading that 90% of Warren Buffet' s wealth came after he was 50 years old. Or was it 60?
ss2017. ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 13:46) Posted:
| Point 1 mentioned EPS= 0.0864 , I quickly jump into a conclusion that YZJFH expected price between S$1.5 and S$2. Wait for a tipping-point moment for a rightful price surged |
|
|
|
Thank you for pointing out the correction of % ROE this year.
GoldenPig ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 14:44) Posted:
YZJFH will not hit 8% ROE target this year. May take a while for company to reach 8-10% ROE target range. I remember management gives itself 3 years.
Share price should take a few years to reach $1.50~$2. Need time for excess returns to be ploughed back into investments and compound returns year after year. Increase in value will be slow at first but escalate as time passes. If management executes its strategies successfully, the asset value and share price increase should follow exponential curves.
Bottomline is we need to be patient and sit tight for a few years if we want the really big returns in the long term.
I remember reading that 90% of Warren Buffet' s wealth came after he was 50 years old. Or was it 60?
ss2017. ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 13:46) Posted:
| Point 1 mentioned EPS= 0.0864 , I quickly jump into a conclusion that YZJFH expected price between S$1.5 and S$2. Wait for a tipping-point moment for a rightful price surged |
|
|
|
YZJFH will not hit 8% ROE target this year. May take a while for company to reach 8-10% ROE target range. I remember management gives itself 3 years.
Share price should take a few years to reach $1.50~$2. Need time for excess returns to be ploughed back into investments and compound returns year after year. Increase in value will be slow at first but escalate as time passes. If management executes its strategies successfully, the asset value and share price increase should follow exponential curves.
Bottomline is we need to be patient and sit tight for a few years if we want the really big returns in the long term.
I remember reading that 90% of Warren Buffet' s wealth came after he was 50 years old. Or was it 60?
ss2017. ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 13:46) Posted:
Point 1 mentioned EPS= 0.0864 , I quickly jump into a conclusion that YZJFH expected price between S$1.5 and S$2. Wait for a tipping-point moment for a rightful price surged.
HVRRVH ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 12:58) Posted:
| Up the post for sharing again. Don' t be too immersed in daily price actions. Occasionally must read such posts and take action accordingly. Appreciate some forumers who really made efforts in their analysis rather than shouting here and there. |
|
|
|
I also welcome selldowns as opportunities to accumulate. Missed the last drop to 0.35 as my funds were not ready then. :(
From recent 1H results of YZJFH and Global Investment, I realise that earnings and dividends of asset management companies are heavily impacted by financial market performance. 2H earnings and dividends of YZJFH might be lower than expected if financial markets worsen. So there might be further selldowns and buying opportunities at that time.
Discount to NAV and safety buffer will then increase even further. Good for long term holding and retirement portfolio.
HVRRVH ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 13:10) Posted:
| Based on 1H earning, the eps is 3.45 cents. If 2H earning remain the same, we can expect around 2.8 cents minimum dividend. It is 7% yield based on current share price. If we assess that the earning is going to maintain or increase in future, this is a good candidate for long term investment. I welcome short sellers to short sale this stock, the more aggressive the better because it is a solid test how low the price can go and how much faith the buyers have for this stock in the long term. [whoever they are other than SBB - the high daily volume for a non STI component stock in itself should set us thinking, where is Emperator lol] |
|
Point 1 mentioned EPS= 0.0864 , I quickly jump into a conclusion that YZJFH expected price between S$1.5 and S$2. Wait for a tipping-point moment for a rightful price surged.
HVRRVH ( Date: 17-Sep-2022 12:58) Posted:
Up the post for sharing again. Don' t be too immersed in daily price actions. Occasionally must read such posts and take action accordingly. Appreciate some forumers who really made efforts in their analysis rather than shouting here and there.
GoldenPig ( Date: 12-Jul-2022 23:29) Posted:
Below is a post by volvo125 in the deleted 2022 Superstar thread. Had saved it as I found it very useful. Hope volvo will not mind that I reproduce it here in case others want to read it again.
YFH Valuation 1
volvo125 17-May-2022 23:29
Contact Follow Quote!
This ERM is actually new to me when I first saw it in Simplywall.st just days ago but I am familar with DCF, WACC and TV as I was involved in M& A activities. But their concepts are similar. DCF is for conventional coy while ERM is for asset mgt coy. By the way, I am also learning so we learn together.
The 1.8% risk free rate taken from the 5yr Govt bond is a given, meaning anyone can just buy the bond and sure get this 1.8% pa coupon return no risk. There are certainly 10yr, 20yr, 30yr Govt Bond but no investment appraisal decision will use the higher risk free rate for the longer period bond for reference. This 1.8% risk free rate for 5yr Govt bond is suffice to be use as a perpeture growth rate reference ( note : assumption of growth rate to perpecturity, not just 5 years. )
Ignore the the 1.44 valuation by Simplywall.st because Simplywall.st was using a kE [or required rate of return on equity, or discount rate] computed with the prevailing S& P equity risk premium adjusted for the " supposedly" relevant Capital mkt beta (or risk), giving a kE 6.19%. But Ren is not paying us an equity return of 6.19%. Ren is paying us much less. And Simplywall.st certainly not aware Ren has intention to pay out only 40% of NPAT as dividend ( you may take the receipt of this dividend as the return that you get on the equity, meaning this is the kE for you and me)
I shall lay this numbers out to you ( and all our friends here in this thread ) again using 40% payout policy, 8% ROE and 1st year NAV 1.08.
1. eps = 0.08*1.08 = 0.0864
2. 40% payout = 0.4*0.0864 = 0.03456 or 0.03456/1.08 = 3.2% [ this is the kE that you and I get, not 6.19% but 3.2% ]
3. ER (excess returns) = 0.0864 - 0.03456 = 0.05184 [ this excess value will go back into the asset pool [supposedly ... ideally] to capture new investments, meaning your NAV will go up by this amount.]
4. TV (terminal value) = 0.05184 / ( 3.2% -1.8% ) = 3.7 [ ok .... this is a another technical formula similar to the Gordon growth model, using dividend and cost of equity to determine the price. In this case, this sub model or formula within the ERM is trying to give a valuation to this Excess returns yoy (year on year) to perpetuity. The valuation (or terminal value) of this future stream of excess returns based 8% ROE, 3.2% kE will worth $3.7 per share today. Why use 3.2% minus 1.8% because 1.8% is a given, so the model wants to take the true return less risk free ]
5. YFH value = 1.08 + 3.7 = $4.78 per share
To help you understand even better, now I shall lay out the Yr 2 numbers for you on the same 8% ROE, 40% payout :-
1. NAV yr 2 = 1.08 + 0.05184 = 1.13184 [ see ... the NAV has just increased due to the plough back of excess returns. The asset backing per share has strengthened. For an asset mgt coy, it also means that you have more cash to deploy for new investments. ]
2. eps = 0.08 * 1.13184 = 0.09055 ( still 8% ROE but your eps in absolute dollar term is higher )
3. 40% payout = 0.03622 or 0.03622/1.13184 = 3.2% ( see ... still 3.2%, but your dividend on yr 2 is higher in absolute dollar term )
4. ER = 0.09055 - 0.03622 = 0.05433 ( the excess returns value is also higher due to the higher eps in absolute dollar term )
5. TV = 0.05433 / ( 3.2% - 1.8% ) = 3.88 ( the higher ER in yr 2 will give a higher TV )
6. YFH value = 1.13184 + 3.88 = $5.01 per share
Observations and Implications
1. YOY, the NAV will go up to the amount equivalent to the ER being ploughed back into the asset pool for reinvestment.
2. eps in absolute dollar term will go up yoy at the same 8% ROE, die die only 40% payout from NPAT.
3. ER will also go up yoy.
4. TV must go up yoy if ER is going up yoy on a constant 3.2% kE.
5. YFH equity value can only go up going forward
Now, someone here may ask what exactly the Yr 1 value $4.78 and Yr 2 $5.01 mean or imply ? Now, if YFH so decide to sell away the business and find a buyer in Yr 1 now, the $4.78 will be used as a reference for negotiation. If this happens in Yr 2, then $5.01 will apply because the coy asset base has grown.
Conclusions :-
1. So, NAV yoy higher + TV yoy higher will give a 2 prones value increase on YFH equity value yoy.
2. You will get more dividend in cash term yoy even though the payout is capped at a constant 40% NPAT or a translated 3.2% kE.
3. YFH will become an infinitely growing cash machine ....
The valuations worked out above are drawn from ERM (not me ...), the financial model used by the professional valuers to appraise Asset Mgt Coy in the Capital mkt. In the short run when little is known or not clear on how the YFH internal mechanics works, the stock market will accord a discount to the coy ..... some times very steep as in what we see today at 0.415 close. In the long run, the full effect on how all the above numbers will play out based on Mgt (Ren and Toe) committed 8% ROE ( i vaguely remember he mentioned target 8~10% ROE) and 40% payout policy.
This post very long ... so likely a lot of typo .... pardon.
Kindly ignore this post if you do think I am talking nonsense .....
|
|
|
|
Based on 1H earning, the eps is 3.45 cents. If 2H earning remain the same, we can expect around 2.8 cents minimum dividend. It is 7% yield based on current share price. If we assess that the earning is going to maintain or increase in future, this is a good candidate for long term investment. I welcome short sellers to short sale this stock, the more aggressive the better because it is a solid test how low the price can go and how much faith the buyers have for this stock in the long term. [whoever they are other than SBB - the high daily volume for a non STI component stock in itself should set us thinking, where is Emperator lol]
Up the post for sharing again. Don' t be too immersed in daily price actions. Occasionally must read such posts and take action accordingly. Appreciate some forumers who really made efforts in their analysis rather than shouting here and there.
GoldenPig ( Date: 12-Jul-2022 23:29) Posted:
Below is a post by volvo125 in the deleted 2022 Superstar thread. Had saved it as I found it very useful. Hope volvo will not mind that I reproduce it here in case others want to read it again.
YFH Valuation 1
volvo125 17-May-2022 23:29
Contact Follow Quote!
This ERM is actually new to me when I first saw it in Simplywall.st just days ago but I am familar with DCF, WACC and TV as I was involved in M& A activities. But their concepts are similar. DCF is for conventional coy while ERM is for asset mgt coy. By the way, I am also learning so we learn together.
The 1.8% risk free rate taken from the 5yr Govt bond is a given, meaning anyone can just buy the bond and sure get this 1.8% pa coupon return no risk. There are certainly 10yr, 20yr, 30yr Govt Bond but no investment appraisal decision will use the higher risk free rate for the longer period bond for reference. This 1.8% risk free rate for 5yr Govt bond is suffice to be use as a perpeture growth rate reference ( note : assumption of growth rate to perpecturity, not just 5 years. )
Ignore the the 1.44 valuation by Simplywall.st because Simplywall.st was using a kE [or required rate of return on equity, or discount rate] computed with the prevailing S& P equity risk premium adjusted for the " supposedly" relevant Capital mkt beta (or risk), giving a kE 6.19%. But Ren is not paying us an equity return of 6.19%. Ren is paying us much less. And Simplywall.st certainly not aware Ren has intention to pay out only 40% of NPAT as dividend ( you may take the receipt of this dividend as the return that you get on the equity, meaning this is the kE for you and me)
I shall lay this numbers out to you ( and all our friends here in this thread ) again using 40% payout policy, 8% ROE and 1st year NAV 1.08.
1. eps = 0.08*1.08 = 0.0864
2. 40% payout = 0.4*0.0864 = 0.03456 or 0.03456/1.08 = 3.2% [ this is the kE that you and I get, not 6.19% but 3.2% ]
3. ER (excess returns) = 0.0864 - 0.03456 = 0.05184 [ this excess value will go back into the asset pool [supposedly ... ideally] to capture new investments, meaning your NAV will go up by this amount.]
4. TV (terminal value) = 0.05184 / ( 3.2% -1.8% ) = 3.7 [ ok .... this is a another technical formula similar to the Gordon growth model, using dividend and cost of equity to determine the price. In this case, this sub model or formula within the ERM is trying to give a valuation to this Excess returns yoy (year on year) to perpetuity. The valuation (or terminal value) of this future stream of excess returns based 8% ROE, 3.2% kE will worth $3.7 per share today. Why use 3.2% minus 1.8% because 1.8% is a given, so the model wants to take the true return less risk free ]
5. YFH value = 1.08 + 3.7 = $4.78 per share
To help you understand even better, now I shall lay out the Yr 2 numbers for you on the same 8% ROE, 40% payout :-
1. NAV yr 2 = 1.08 + 0.05184 = 1.13184 [ see ... the NAV has just increased due to the plough back of excess returns. The asset backing per share has strengthened. For an asset mgt coy, it also means that you have more cash to deploy for new investments. ]
2. eps = 0.08 * 1.13184 = 0.09055 ( still 8% ROE but your eps in absolute dollar term is higher )
3. 40% payout = 0.03622 or 0.03622/1.13184 = 3.2% ( see ... still 3.2%, but your dividend on yr 2 is higher in absolute dollar term )
4. ER = 0.09055 - 0.03622 = 0.05433 ( the excess returns value is also higher due to the higher eps in absolute dollar term )
5. TV = 0.05433 / ( 3.2% - 1.8% ) = 3.88 ( the higher ER in yr 2 will give a higher TV )
6. YFH value = 1.13184 + 3.88 = $5.01 per share
Observations and Implications
1. YOY, the NAV will go up to the amount equivalent to the ER being ploughed back into the asset pool for reinvestment.
2. eps in absolute dollar term will go up yoy at the same 8% ROE, die die only 40% payout from NPAT.
3. ER will also go up yoy.
4. TV must go up yoy if ER is going up yoy on a constant 3.2% kE.
5. YFH equity value can only go up going forward
Now, someone here may ask what exactly the Yr 1 value $4.78 and Yr 2 $5.01 mean or imply ? Now, if YFH so decide to sell away the business and find a buyer in Yr 1 now, the $4.78 will be used as a reference for negotiation. If this happens in Yr 2, then $5.01 will apply because the coy asset base has grown.
Conclusions :-
1. So, NAV yoy higher + TV yoy higher will give a 2 prones value increase on YFH equity value yoy.
2. You will get more dividend in cash term yoy even though the payout is capped at a constant 40% NPAT or a translated 3.2% kE.
3. YFH will become an infinitely growing cash machine ....
The valuations worked out above are drawn from ERM (not me ...), the financial model used by the professional valuers to appraise Asset Mgt Coy in the Capital mkt. In the short run when little is known or not clear on how the YFH internal mechanics works, the stock market will accord a discount to the coy ..... some times very steep as in what we see today at 0.415 close. In the long run, the full effect on how all the above numbers will play out based on Mgt (Ren and Toe) committed 8% ROE ( i vaguely remember he mentioned target 8~10% ROE) and 40% payout policy.
This post very long ... so likely a lot of typo .... pardon.
Kindly ignore this post if you do think I am talking nonsense .....
|
|
Surprised that price hold at current level when US markets were rather negative since released of CPI on Tuesday. Have increased my positions at 36, 37.5 and 38.5 in the past month and mentally prepared for it to revisit such levels again. Would not add any further for the time being while awaiting Fed rate decision next week. They should set for .75% hike but it may surprise a few with a 1% hike. If marekt react negatively, it may present opportnity to add more shares to the holding.
You might want to check out Samudera Shipping. It is the star contributor to my dividends income this year. The thing is, it will give me even better dividends next year!
The price has run up over the past year but there is still more headroom due to big dividends expected for end FY2022. I expect the price to go above 1.60 at least. No guarantee. Just my gut feel.
I shared my story about investing in Samudera in the Samudera Shipping thread on 5 Aug 22.
HVRRVH ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 15:30) Posted:
| Price action and seemingly relentless selling can be unnerving, if one' s investment horizon is short term. We all know T Rowe must get rid of their shares, so there is no short supply. Even then, it doesn' t appear that they are selling indiscriminately at any price. So if we think ther share price represent value, we sholld buy if our invest horizon is long. Previously I have held a few counters when they were in ' slumber' , the like of Nordic (below 20 cents to above 60 cents), ChinaSunsine (20 plus cents to above $1- pre split) but there were nothing compare to the like of iFast, AEM, UMS which I monitored but missed. Heck, I missed HourGlass too recently! Now, I don' t know whether YZJF will be a hit or miss but I am willing to wait a few years to find out. I mitigate my risk by buying when everyone is selling and also to collect the dividends. |
|
When our mindset is tuned to view an undervalued company as generating recurring income for us, we will not see the depressed share price is causing us to lose capital but as giving us oppotunities to buy more of that future income at even lower cost.
Even if YZJFH share price never ever goes up again, it does not bother me so long as it can me give a good dividend yield on my historical cost every year.
i m ready to buy 20 - 30 x small small each time. in this way then can buy even if the price go very low.
value of this stock is obviously very good. price is very low as big holders are selling. overall market sentiment is low as evident by the low price traded each day. so buyers can buy slowly. slower better. buy already must be able to hold. there will be a time when seller has done their selling.or when buyers exceed sellers. then only price can go up. buy backs buy backs. wait until the bears enter the valley then burn them chao tar chao tar.
