YZJ Fin Hldg    Last:0.24    +0.005

YZJFH - potentially rewarding

Price action and seemingly relentless selling can be unnerving, if one' s investment horizon is short term. We all know T Rowe must get rid of their shares, so there is no short supply. Even then, it doesn' t appear that they are selling indiscriminately at any price. So if we think ther share price represent value, we sholld buy if our invest horizon is long. Previously I have held a few counters when they were in ' slumber' , the like of Nordic (below 20 cents to above 60 cents), ChinaSunsine (20 plus cents to above $1- pre split) but there were nothing compare to the like of iFast, AEM, UMS which I monitored but missed. Heck, I missed HourGlass too recently! Now, I don' t know whether YZJF will be a hit or miss but I am willing to wait a few years to find out. I mitigate my risk by buying when everyone is selling and also to collect the dividends.  

 

Dividend investing appears to give unexciting low-returns compared to big flashy gains from trading. But the returns can snowball. My dividend income so far for this year is already 150% of my annual earned income.

I am waiting for my next batch of dividends to be credited. Going to re-invest them into YZJFH to add to the snowballing. :)

 

Yes, will not go wrong if hold for long term. 
Good to invest in a company whose management is clear on what its actual job is, which  is  building up value in the long term for investors. So it does not waste precious energy, time and resources on propping up share price in the short term.
When its strategies are implemented successfully, long term investors will be rewarded by stable/increasing dividends and share price increase. 

Dannkh      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 10:29) Posted: It is a fact that SSHs ( Substantial Share Holders like T Rowe & Vanguard) are selling to reduce their holdings which may not fit into their investment strategy. Must know when they have finished their selling. Appreciate those who have bot today share their counter-parties. Can accumulate slowly for long term. Dont " show hand" and reseve some " bullets" . Dyodd. ss2017.      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 10:02) Posted: May be because of a major share holder downloading at this price, we are able to collect it that cheap.  Having nva @ $1.075 with almost half a billion cash on hand this company can launch any good projects

 

It is a fact that SSHs ( Substantial Share Holders like T Rowe & Vanguard) are selling to reduce their
holdings which may not fit into their investment strategy. Must know when they have finished their selling.
Appreciate those who have bot today share their counter-parties.
Can accumulate slowly for long term. Dont " show hand" and reseve some " bullets" . Dyodd.

ss2017.      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 10:02) Posted: May be because of a major share holder downloading at this price, we are able to collect it that cheap.  Having nva @ $1.075 with almost half a billion cash on hand this company can launch any good projects. Dannkh      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:56) Posted: With the result, the picture is clearer now. I am prepared to hold this longer term now. good luck

 

May be because of a major share holder downloading at this price, we are able to collect it that cheap. 
Having nva @ $1.075 with almost half a billion cash on hand this company can launch any good projects.

Dannkh      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:56) Posted: With the result, the picture is clearer now. I am prepared to hold this longer term now. good luck. ss2017.      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:45) Posted: Activate our buy back engines when company starts to buy back.  In the way we can prevent price being forced down further

 

With the result, the picture is clearer now.
I am prepared to hold this longer term now. good luck.

ss2017.      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:45) Posted: Activate our buy back engines when company starts to buy back.  In the way we can prevent price being forced down further. Dannkh      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:15) Posted: Got some at 38.5c. Counter-party is OCBC. See whether SSH finished selling their holding. Hope BUYback shares by company soon.

 

Activate our buy back engines when company starts to buy back. 
In the way we can prevent price being forced down further.

Dannkh      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 09:15) Posted: Got some at 38.5c. Counter-party is OCBC. See whether SSH finished selling their holding. Hope BUYback shares by company soon.

 

SBB resumes today. Saw at least 2mil transactions

 

Fully agree with you. It is a matter of different expectations.
Those who expected big profits that they can cash out on within a short timeframe will feel conned.

The company just started implementing their strategies, so not reasonable to expect instant huge profits. We need to be patient. In any case, it is still on track to achieve its target of 8~10% return on invested capital since there is no downward revision of the target in the 1H report.

pasttime      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 08:49) Posted: yes if feel kena corn. please sell down. others who feel profitable with projected dividend good, will be waiting.  after all market is about different expectations and sentiment. else no trade.  after release of report on 11 Aug as related shows that management keep to their words. a good start. say what one going to do, do what one said is a good practise. it builds confident over time. sure.can.work      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 08:20) Posted: All kena corned...that' s why the selling was so heavy since month ago

 

Got some at 38.5c. Counter-party is OCBC.
See whether SSH finished selling their holding.
Hope BUYback shares by company soon.

 

want to push down must dare to shorts la. like that only 0.005c not soup not water. how to buy?

pasttime      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 08:49) Posted: yes if feel kena corn. please sell down. others who feel profitable with projected dividend good, will be waiting.  after all market is about different expectations and sentiment. else no trade.  after release of report on 11 Aug as related shows that management keep to their words. a good start. say what one going to do, do what one said is a good practise. it builds confident over time. sure.can.work      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 08:20) Posted: All kena corned...that' s why the selling was so heavy since month ago

 

yes if feel kena corn. please sell down.
others who feel profitable with projected dividend good, will be waiting. 
after all market is about different expectations and sentiment. else no trade. 
after release of report on 11 Aug as related shows that management keep to their words. a good start.
say what one going to do, do what one said is a good practise. it builds confident over time.

sure.can.work      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 08:20) Posted: All kena corned...that' s why the selling was so heavy since month ago

 

All kena corned...that' s why the selling was so heavy since month ago 

 

Like this long term investors who is young and working in industry can continue holding...

GoldenPig      ( Date: 12-Aug-2022 02:04) Posted: No interim dividend, as I expected. 1H2022 net profits is lower than I expected. But on further thought, should have anticipated it. With the drop in global stock markets, its investments in listed equities would be affected as well.  Let' s see how well it executes its business development strategies in the next few years. Share price will be further depressed for a while, likely a long while. Long term investors who see increased value in the price drops will likely accumulate. Well, it is said that the stock markets is where wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient ones.

 

No interim dividend, as I expected.

1H2022 net profits is lower than I expected. But on further thought, should have anticipated it. With the drop in global stock markets, its investments in listed equities would be affected as well. 

Let' s see how well it executes its business development strategies in the next few years.

Share price will be further depressed for a while, likely a long while. Long term investors who see increased value in the price drops will likely accumulate. Well, it is said that the stock markets is where wealth is transferred from the impatient to the patient ones. 

 

Excerpts from media release on 1H2022 results 

Yangzijiang Financial Aims to Boost Offshore Investments And Fee Income In Next Five Years to Optimize Returns
&bull On track to achieve a long-term target of allocating 50% of AUM for deployment to offshore investments has about S$480 million worth of assets in Singapore as at 30 June 2022
&bull Decrease in 1H2022 total income mainly due to fair value changes on equity financial assets following weakness in financial markets interest income eased slightly on portfolio reshuffling
&bull Net asset value per share of S$1.07 as of 30 June 2022

1H2022 Highlights
As the Group continues to reshuffle its portfolio, the Group also unveiled its unaudited financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2022 (&ldquo 1H2022&rdquo ).
  S$ million (except for per share items)       1H2022         1H2021       y-o-y change
  Total Income                                                 173.8               239.2         -27.3%
Interest Income                                             184.9             190.6           -3.0%
Non-Interest Income                                       (11.1)*             48.5           N.M.^
Profit before allowances                                 158.2             225.9         -29.9%
Profit after allowances                                   170.2             260.0         -34.5%
Net profit to equity holders of the company   136.4             196.5         -30.6%​ ​ ​ ​
Basic and Diluted EPS in cents                       3.45                 4.97       -30.6%
  *Decline in non-interest income in 1H2022 vs a year ago is mainly due to change in fair value of the Group&rsquo s investments in financial assets, at fair value through profit or loss. Most of the fair-value loss recorded was due mainly to fair-value movement of listed shares, which are retained by the Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Group after the spin-off. The remaining loss is attributable to overall market losses from listed shares within the PE funds which the Group has invested in.
^N.M. denotes not meaningful

Net Profit
Profit after allowances decreased by 34.5% to S$170.2 million. Such allowances relate to the expected credit losses of debt investments (at amortised costs) and loans to non-related parties &ndash microfinance. Consequently, net income decreased by approximately 30.6% year- on-year to S$136.4 million for 1H2022.

Business Outlook
In view of the current macro uncertainty, the Group is adopting a more cautious approach in deploying its capital, preferring to diversify across vintages (i.e. deploying capital over a period) to ensure it remains competitive across economic cycles. Nevertheless, the Group remains on track in achieving its long-term target of allocating 50% of its AUM in Singapore for offshore investments.

Mr Ren Yuanlin, Executive Chairman of Yangzijiang Financial Ltd., commented: &ldquo Yangzijiang Financial remains focused on long-term value creation. We seek to create a diversified portfolio with a focus on growth opportunities to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns while providing a steady stream of dividends to shareholders through income generated from our Investment Management and Fund/Wealth Management Businesses.&rdquo

Mr Vincent Toe, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer &ndash (Singapore) of Yangzijiang Financial Ltd., said: &ldquo Since the spin-off in April 2022, the Group has grown its Singapore team to more than 20 professionals, including several key investment and risk professionals, as we seek to strengthen our network and investment competence. On asset allocation, more than 10% of the Group&rsquo s assets are currently in Singapore, ready for  deployment. We will continue to explore investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets and global developed markets.&rdquo

The Group announced in May 2022 that it will set up and manage a new fund, GEM Asia Growth Fund, with an initial AUM of S$100 million, of which S$80 million will be funded by the Group and the remainder raised from other parties.

Tapping on the Group&rsquo s competitive advantage and strategic network in the shipping industry, the Group is also looking to set up a new maritime fund with an initial target fund size of US$250 million. The proposed maritime fund aims to generate steady income and returns from investments in maritime assets (including vessels) for the purposes of leasing, chartering and/or sale, and providing financing for small to medium sized shipping companies.


 

 

Thanks for sharing your research and observations - all very sensible deductions. Looking forward to their upcoming 1HFY22 results.

volvo125      ( Date: 23-Jul-2022 02:55) Posted: I have this observation. While I cannot exactly confirm but I think it has happened and is still happening. YFH deep and persistent sell off in the past weeks are not exactly due to shorts. There were Shorts, but they only participated on a peripheral basis riding on the main Seller TR (Rowe). 1)  If you check the Circular for SBB mandate dated 24 May, TR holding was 295.981mil (7.5%).  TR 1st disposal report (mandatory as SSH > 5%) to SGX dated 28 Jun, disposed [email protected], holdings dropped from 277.86mil to 269.28mil. Question :- what happened to the gap between 295mil~277mil ? There was a disposal of 18mil but TR did not report to SGX. TR 2nd disposal report to SGX dated 5 Jul, [email protected], holdings dropped from 238.59 to 233.497.  Question :- what happened to the gap between 269mil to 238mil ? There was a disposal of 31mil and TR also did not report. 2.1)  If you check the latest MAS short reports dated 8Jul and 15 Jul, You will realise the Shorts outstanding for YFH has already come down to quite a low level since 6 May at its height. 6 May - 33.7mil shares or 0.85% of float. 8 Jul - 12.9mil shares or 0.33% of float 15 Jul - 14.74mil shares or 0.37% of float YFH outstanding shorts came down significantly during the period immediately after spin off to 15 Jul MAS latest report. Accumulated outstanding shorts were only 14.74mil to date 15 Jul. 2.2)  Now compare with YZJ immediately after the spin off :- 22 Apr - 40.8mil or 1.03% of float (Just before spin off)  6 May - 71.1mi or 1.8% of float 8 Jul - 108.4mil or 2.74% of float 15 Jul - 96.8mil or 2.54% of float YZJ outstanding shorts increased from 1.03% just before spin off to 1.8% immediately after spin off and further increased to 2.54% on MAS latest 15 Jul report. YZJ was the one that was being heavily shorted on, not YFH. In fact, if you look through the MAS short report, you will realise only a handful of coy has short outstanding ~2% (SIA, Frenken, EZRA-suspended ..). In fact, anything higher than 1% outstanding shorts is likely considered as high.  3)    So the persistent sellings in YFH are not likely due to Shorts effect but someone(s) with a significant amount of shares to dispose. Shorts just added to the fuel. TR disposed 62mil shares by 1 Jul (from 299mil to 233mil) and only reported twice (5.17+8.58 = 13.75mil). TR did not bother to report, and I read that TR was planning to further dispose (may be all) the 233mil from 1 Jul, and this explains why we are seeing so many weeks of huge volume and persistent selling while the shorts outstanding actually remain quite low. TR could really be selling for various reasons not neccessarily mean YFH biz is in trouble. a)    TR is a long time SSH of YZJ due to the Shipbuilding biz, and not the DI or fund/wealth mgt biz. b}    capital flight due to USD appreciation as a result of the accelerating interest hikes. c)    TR may not be comfortable with the transformation of DI to fund/wealth mgt biz on its transition, degree of success, pace .... etc. d)    TR may not be comfortable on the yet to matured DI, such as bad debt risks due to China slowdown, lockdown, property crisis ... etc. I do not think TR has the intention to run down YFH share prices but its EXIT will definitely have deep negative impact due to its huge 233mil holding and likely TR has a time pressure or schedule for the disposal. If TR were to dispose 5~10mil per day, 233mil will likely take 46~23 trading days or 2~1 months from 1 Jul. Until TR is done with the disposal, YFH will have to tahan this chilling winter before any reversal can sustainly happen. One positive observation to note is that there are Big Hands absorbing the huge volume selling in the past 3~4 weeks although the price still declined due to continuous huge volume disposal. 4)    I am still of the opinion that Toe should continue to conduct regular SBB to minimise this massive disposal impact so that YFH could regain its reversal faster. The YFH webinar given on 12 Jul through Lim & Tan seems reasonably positive and Toe guided the NPAT at $221mil NPAT (lower than the ~$340mil norm) with anticipated cash drags, which I think is reasonably expected as the maturig DI are recycling out to new fund/wealth biz and there will be a twilight zone where the recycling funds are pending for suitable investments to deploy to. The above interpretations are drawn from the observations that I have made from SGX announcements, MAS shorts reports and daily price volumre actions. You may think otherwise and so just ignore my post.

 

From competitive high-tech manufacturing sector to higher than expected trade growth, China' s economy managed to secure a positive growth in the second quarter against tough headwinds and achieve a V-shaped rebound with 2.5 percent growth in the first half of the year, a hard-won achievement considering the country' s arduous fight with the most serious outbreaks of coronavirus since 2020 and a harsh external environment, officials and experts said as they further underlined the economic resilience and abilities of the nation of 1.4 billion people to brave challenges ahead. 

Although the impact of recent ordeal continues to linger in certain economic sectors, experts were generally upbeat about accelerating growth in the second half of this year as the effects of stimulus packages gradually come into force, which will provide momentum for the country' s efforts to strive toward its economic growth target, they stressed. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, China' s GDP expanded 0.4 percent on a yearly basis in the second quarter, the slowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2020, when the domestic economy was battered by a ferocious outbreak of COVID-19 cases in Central China' s Wuhan. The country' s GDP growth was 4.8 percent in the first quarter. 

In the first half of 2022, China' s GDP expanded by 2.5 percent from a year ago, the NBS data showed.
China' s economic slowdown came in the wake of Omicron outbreaks in some major metropolises including Shanghai which directly led to a shutdown of the city' s activities for more than two months. The preventive measures also spilled over into surrounding areas in China' s Yangtze River Delta, causing growth to slow in the region considered to be China' s economic engine. 

Both experts and officials said that that China has experienced challenges and uncertainties, but the first half data, which showed a recovery trend, was proof that China has withstood these tests as it navigates through a tougher than ever environment which sees the global economy mired in a series of troubles, ranging from the pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine conflict to looming economic crises in many countries around the world, including the US.

Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the NBS, said on Friday that China' s economy has overcome the negative impact of unexpected factors to show a stabilizing and improving trend. " In particular, China has achieved positive economic growth in the second quarter and stabilized the economic situation. This is a hard-won outcome to have achieved," he said. 

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counselors' Office of the State Council, said on Friday that China has experienced the test and achieved an economic rebound. " This showed that China' s economic abilities are strong," he noted. 

Specifically, China' s economy showed stronger growth momentum, and presumably the most stable characteristics when compared with some other major world economies. The US economy, for example, is showing gloomy prospects amid problems like rising inflation, which have prompted overseas institutions to lower economic forecasts and even expressed concerns over a possible recession.

Economists from Goldman Sachs have slashed their outlook for the US' Q2 GDP to just 0.7 percent from its previous estimate of a 1.9 percent increase, CNBC reported. The Atlanta Fed' s GDPNow measure also saw the US' second-quarter output contract by 2.1 percent, another CNBC report showed. 

Japan' s GDP growth shrank 0.9 percent in January-March from the previous quarter, as shown by revised Cabinet Office data.V-shaped recovery 

Interpreting China' s recent economic trend, economists interviewed by  China' s economy presented a healthy V-shaped recovery in the second quarter, which showed that the darkest period has now passed and the domestic economy is heading for further recovery in the second half of the year." China' s economy entered a state of stabilization and rebound in May and June after experiencing a steep fall in April. This was triggered by policy efforts to stabilize economic operations, as well as by easing of uncertain factors such as COVID-19 prevention measures and external geopolitical frictions,"

Yao also stressed that China' s economy experienced a V-shaped recovery in the first six months, as domestic GDP continued to see relatively good growth in January and February, sloped down in March, slipped abruptly in April, and saw marginal improvement in May, while major economic indicators picked up in June.Looking closely at the Q2 economic figures, economists and organizations saw a divided situation in China' s economy, with some sectors showing a trend of stabilization or even higher than expected performance, while others are still languishing after taking a severe blow from the recent woes. 

In Q2, the primary industry and the secondary industry of industrial production did much of the heavy lifting for the economy. The primary industry, mostly referring to agriculture, grew 4.4 percent in added value in Q2, the NBS data showed. This sector' s steady growth provides a good foundation for China' s economy, including many primary products' supplies and grain safety, Liu said.

The rebound in industrial production also constituted a positive factor in China' s recent economic operations. The value-added industrial output of major industrial enterprises rose 3.4 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year. It grew 3.9 percent in June, compared with 0.7 percent in May and a 2.9 percent decline in April. 

In particular, the surge of high-tech manufacturing industries was a bright spot for the domestic economy amid the pressures and uncertainties. In the first half of the year, China' s high-tech manufacturing added value surged 9.6 percent, outpacing the average industrial growth by 6.2 percentage points. Production of new-energy vehicles, solar batteries and mobile telecom base station equipment surged by 111.2 percent, 31.8 percent and 19.8 percent respectively, according to the NBS. 

" The above-average growth speed of high-tech related industries when China' s general economic situation was taking a relatively large blow shows that the sector has become a core and relatively certain momentum for economic growth," Liu said. 

Cong Yi, a professor at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, also told the Global Times on Friday that China' s economic rebound in June was largely due to the fundamentals of China' s economy and the stability of China' s production system. 

" Once we can get production back in order, an economic rebound will follow," Cong said.

Meanwhile, the trade sector also showed a brighter-than-expected growth trend. China' s trade sector resumed a double-digit growth of 14.3 percent in June, compared with 9.5 percent growth in May, customs data showed on Wednesday. 

The strong economic performance in the aforementioned sectors has successfully offset contradictions in other sectors such as consumption and the housing market, and managed to push China' s economy to a positive growth in the second quarter despite the challenges it experienced, experts said.

 

China Tech Stock and China Enterprises index past 5 years performance
HSTECH 1-Yr -40.28%, 3-Yr +27.34, 5-Yr +7.57%, YTD -14%
HSCEI  1-Yr -28.10%, 3-Yr -29.54%, 5-Yr -26.03%, YTD -6.91%

ss2017.      ( Date: 24-Jul-2022 12:27) Posted: A reasonable write up. 👍 If China follows western ways of governance, the covid-19 dead toll should at least reaching 5 millions given China a densely populated country. However China adopts zero covid tolerance policy by itself is a higher form of protecting human right and freedom. Over a long run, China economy will surpass the western world. kcs1107      ( Date: 24-Jul-2022 09:50) Posted: Why Western Media predictions on China were mostly wrong in past decade??&lsquo Ideological bias, problematic political science&rsquo cause failed forecast.When commenting on China, some in the West only see a country constantly at the cusp of crisis, ranging from predictions of a " China hard landing" or " China collapse," to " COVID is China' s Chernobyl moment" and " the end of Communist Party of China' s (CPC) rule." Over the past decade, whenever China encountered difficulties and challenges, some Western politicians, scholars and so-called China experts always repeat wild prophecies about the fate of China and the CPC. Needless to say, none was even remotely right. Far from it, China under the leadership of CPC has overcome various challenges, become stronger than ever and is closer to the center of the global stage than ever. Even under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has showed a much better performance than the West in saving lives and controlling the epidemic since the beginning, and its economic growth is still faster than most major economies, Chinese experts said. The wrong predictions about China in the past decade have shown an interesting trend of Western understanding of China: from downplaying China' s development and exaggerating the problems that China has, to recognizing the fact of China' s rise, and now to the anxiety of how to deal with a powerful China with a unique political system and culture that is very different from the West. In other words, from the China Collapse Theory to the China Threat Theory, said analysts. The " China collapse theory" is a typical example of wrong Western predictions about China, and there are quite a number of Western scholars who used to or still hold these opinions. A representative prediction of such kind was made by Francis Fukuyama in 2012: China' s top-down political system, under pressure from a growing middle class empowered by wealth and social networks, is likely to blow up at some point. " China has always been a country with a big information problem where the emperor cannot figure out what is going on at a grassroots level" [&hellip ] and " this is in so many respects exactly the Communist Party' s problem. Because they do not have a free media, they do not have local elections, they cannot really judge what their people are thinking." Fukuyama is not alone in this regard. There were some other " famous" Western proponent of the hilarious theory that used their biased knowledge to predict China' s course in the past 10 years, such as when former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said in 2011 that the " Chinese system is doomed." In an interview with the Atlantic, Clinton said Beijing' s human rights record is " deplorable" and it is " trying to stop history" by opposing the advance of democracy. Gordon Chang, a " well-known" " China Collapse" theory fanatic, has frequently prognosticated on " China' s collapse," but despite all indications to the contrary, he just kept changing the time of the " collapse" again and again. Why do Americans want the CPC out, when in fact the CPC and vested interests is what is keeping China from advancing ahead of the USA?Why do Americans want the CCPC out, when in fact the CCP and vested interests is what is keeping China from advancing ahead of the USA?Some years ago before the global financial crisis, I began to develop a habit of grinning at almost every piece of supposedly serious journalism on China, whether it was Time, NYT, or the Economist. I was oblivious to the surrounding and subconscious bubbling to the surface until my friend asked worriedly &ldquo why are you smiling at the laptop?" " Many Chinese including myself came to the realization I was reading about China in English" , and it was a far different picture from the one painted in Chinese, a rusty language I had brushed up in my two years stateside.I was tickled by the absurd gap between the two, further reinforced by the dismantling of the China in my mind with the reality of modern China I had witnessed with my own eyes. I have slowly come around to the conclusion that the freedom loving west loves communist China for the same reason they hate her.I kid you not.You see, the west loves doing business with China because she is huge and delivers.But the west also hates competing with China because she is so massive but delivers. The west used to dismiss and laugh off Chinese competition.Today, they still dismiss Chinese efforts, but there is no laughter. The rhetoric is designed to stir up anger instead.China delivers, but that is because the evil communists government has turned the poor Chinese people into a monolithic army of spying zombies.Anyone who wakes up from the zombie apocalypse will be caught and delivered to Tiananmen square to die under passing tank tracks. Evil must be opposed.Cue heroic music and the entrance of the white hero with guns blazing to save the day.On a more serious note, the CCP leadership over the past 70 years since its founding has led China from an agrarian, feudal, war-ravaged and exhausted society to a confident, peaceful and modern nation state that has landed on the far side of the moon and launched her own Beidou GPS system with global coverage. China is behind because she squandered a century and three generations whilst the west industrialized.She is closing the gap, because a stable China at peace is a formidable proposition.Why are there protests in China right now? Something about a bank?How it began. In Henan Province - Four Banks - Primarily Rural Farmers Banks misused Peoples money and made bad fraudulent investments.Normally they gambled on the fact that Chinese rarely dipped into Life savings - and so they could recover it fast and make it up Sadly COVID 19 happened and People panicked and began to rush to the bank to withdraw their money.Of course when there is a Panic to rush to withdraw their money - no bank can have the cash to pay the depositors. Even if its the safest bank in the world. Most of the money is loaned out.So under normal circumstances the Banks will appeal to the Monetary Authority (China Central bank in China, RBI in India) for emergency cash.Foreign exchange reserves in China declined only $56.5 billion to $3.071 trillion in June of 2022, the lowest since March of 2020 and compared to market forecasts of $3.113 trillion, mainly due to general dollar strength amidst aggressive Fed' s tightening expectations and looming recession risks. Meanwhile, gold reserves fell to $113.82 billion at the end of June from $115.18 billion at the end-May.It must be noted that Trillions bond is kept in reserve with Treasury of USA.So,even a trillions short Gap problems cannot be an issue for China when America haven debt of 30 Trillions!!

 

A reasonable write up. 👍

If China follows western ways of governance, the covid-19 dead toll should at least reaching 5 millions given China a densely populated country.

However China adopts zero covid tolerance policy by itself is a higher form of protecting human right and freedom. Over a long run, China economy will surpass the western world.

kcs1107      ( Date: 24-Jul-2022 09:50) Posted: Why Western Media predictions on China were mostly wrong in past decade??&lsquo Ideological bias, problematic political science&rsquo cause failed forecast.When commenting on China, some in the West only see a country constantly at the cusp of crisis, ranging from predictions of a " China hard landing" or " China collapse," to " COVID is China' s Chernobyl moment" and " the end of Communist Party of China' s (CPC) rule." Over the past decade, whenever China encountered difficulties and challenges, some Western politicians, scholars and so-called China experts always repeat wild prophecies about the fate of China and the CPC. Needless to say, none was even remotely right. Far from it, China under the leadership of CPC has overcome various challenges, become stronger than ever and is closer to the center of the global stage than ever. Even under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has showed a much better performance than the West in saving lives and controlling the epidemic since the beginning, and its economic growth is still faster than most major economies, Chinese experts said. The wrong predictions about China in the past decade have shown an interesting trend of Western understanding of China: from downplaying China' s development and exaggerating the problems that China has, to recognizing the fact of China' s rise, and now to the anxiety of how to deal with a powerful China with a unique political system and culture that is very different from the West. In other words, from the China Collapse Theory to the China Threat Theory, said analysts. The " China collapse theory" is a typical example of wrong Western predictions about China, and there are quite a number of Western scholars who used to or still hold these opinions. A representative prediction of such kind was made by Francis Fukuyama in 2012: China' s top-down political system, under pressure from a growing middle class empowered by wealth and social networks, is likely to blow up at some point. " China has always been a country with a big information problem where the emperor cannot figure out what is going on at a grassroots level" [&hellip ] and " this is in so many respects exactly the Communist Party' s problem. Because they do not have a free media, they do not have local elections, they cannot really judge what their people are thinking." Fukuyama is not alone in this regard. There were some other " famous" Western proponent of the hilarious theory that used their biased knowledge to predict China' s course in the past 10 years, such as when former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said in 2011 that the " Chinese system is doomed." In an interview with the Atlantic, Clinton said Beijing' s human rights record is " deplorable" and it is " trying to stop history" by opposing the advance of democracy. Gordon Chang, a " well-known" " China Collapse" theory fanatic, has frequently prognosticated on " China' s collapse," but despite all indications to the contrary, he just kept changing the time of the " collapse" again and again. Why do Americans want the CPC out, when in fact the CPC and vested interests is what is keeping China from advancing ahead of the USA?Why do Americans want the CCPC out, when in fact the CCP and vested interests is what is keeping China from advancing ahead of the USA?Some years ago before the global financial crisis, I began to develop a habit of grinning at almost every piece of supposedly serious journalism on China, whether it was Time, NYT, or the Economist. I was oblivious to the surrounding and subconscious bubbling to the surface until my friend asked worriedly &ldquo why are you smiling at the laptop?" " Many Chinese including myself came to the realization I was reading about China in English" , and it was a far different picture from the one painted in Chinese, a rusty language I had brushed up in my two years stateside.I was tickled by the absurd gap between the two, further reinforced by the dismantling of the China in my mind with the reality of modern China I had witnessed with my own eyes. I have slowly come around to the conclusion that the freedom loving west loves communist China for the same reason they hate her.I kid you not.You see, the west loves doing business with China because she is huge and delivers.But the west also hates competing with China because she is so massive but delivers. The west used to dismiss and laugh off Chinese competition.Today, they still dismiss Chinese efforts, but there is no laughter. The rhetoric is designed to stir up anger instead.China delivers, but that is because the evil communists government has turned the poor Chinese people into a monolithic army of spying zombies.Anyone who wakes up from the zombie apocalypse will be caught and delivered to Tiananmen square to die under passing tank tracks. Evil must be opposed.Cue heroic music and the entrance of the white hero with guns blazing to save the day.On a more serious note, the CCP leadership over the past 70 years since its founding has led China from an agrarian, feudal, war-ravaged and exhausted society to a confident, peaceful and modern nation state that has landed on the far side of the moon and launched her own Beidou GPS system with global coverage. China is behind because she squandered a century and three generations whilst the west industrialized.She is closing the gap, because a stable China at peace is a formidable proposition.Why are there protests in China right now? Something about a bank?How it began. In Henan Province - Four Banks - Primarily Rural Farmers Banks misused Peoples money and made bad fraudulent investments.Normally they gambled on the fact that Chinese rarely dipped into Life savings - and so they could recover it fast and make it up Sadly COVID 19 happened and People panicked and began to rush to the bank to withdraw their money.Of course when there is a Panic to rush to withdraw their money - no bank can have the cash to pay the depositors. Even if its the safest bank in the world. Most of the money is loaned out.So under normal circumstances the Banks will appeal to the Monetary Authority (China Central bank in China, RBI in India) for emergency cash.Foreign exchange reserves in China declined only $56.5 billion to $3.071 trillion in June of 2022, the lowest since March of 2020 and compared to market forecasts of $3.113 trillion, mainly due to general dollar strength amidst aggressive Fed' s tightening expectations and looming recession risks. Meanwhile, gold reserves fell to $113.82 billion at the end of June from $115.18 billion at the end-May.It must be noted that Trillions bond is kept in reserve with Treasury of USA.So,even a trillions short Gap problems cannot be an issue for China when America haven debt of 30 Trillions!! fatpig      ( Date: 24-Jul-2022 08:49) Posted: China finacial crisis - https://youtu.be/N57doBGQTNY