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Good call too. It hit intraday low of 39 when you posted and close 38 the next day yet you held on.
bandits272 ( Date: 15-Oct-2014 21:15) Posted:
Hold the Line!!!!!!!!!!
HVRRVH ( Date: 15-Oct-2014 20:38) Posted:
There was attempt to sell down this stock but it held well. Next important milestone is 3Q earnings, which is expected to see significant year on year improvement. It might be the catalyst for the stock to be re rated. Not a call to buy or otherwise, just talking to myself :)
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your view is vindicated by the event. It hit intraday low of 38 on that day
ash902 ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 12:40) Posted:
don' t sell cheaply please. just my 2c )
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Oic.. Thanks u for sharing..
But why isit a few months after the report?
Is it for the market to digest the report?
Or are there any reasons
domanic ( Date: 30-Oct-2014 19:09) Posted:
usually not so fast.. it should be 1 - 2 months after the report which is the bigget move
bandits272 ( Date: 30-Oct-2014 17:27) Posted:
hope to c more up volume in 2 wks time!!
since its almost time for reporting..
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usually not so fast.. it should be 1 - 2 months after the report which is the bigget move
bandits272 ( Date: 30-Oct-2014 17:27) Posted:
hope to c more up volume in 2 wks time!!
since its almost time for reporting..
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hope to c more up volume in 2 wks time!!
since its almost time for reporting..
i' ve been on this stocks ever since early aug. still my favourite stock by far... though i missed out on 800 super :S
| CHINA SUNSINE: " FY14 Profit To Triple, Dividends To Rise," Says AmFraser |
Tuesday, 28 October 2014 12:03
Excerpts from analyst' s report
AmFraser Research analyst: Renfred Tay
 China Sunsine independent director Koh Choon Kong (right) with Maybank Kim Eng analyst Benjamin Oh at the company' s factory. NextInsight file photo.We initiate coverage on China Sunsine with a BUY rating at a target price of S$0.69 based on 7x FY15F P/E.
One of the largest in the world in terms of capacity, this Chinese rubber chemical additives maker is now benefiting big time from its courage to treat environmental protection seriously during a time when enforcement was lax.
Quality S-Chip. Our faith in this counter is not guided by blind bravado. We drew our conclusion after making observations on its: 1) customers 2) receivables 3) reported sales, volume, ASPs and market prices 4) PPE trend 5) global market share 6) mentions in other reports 7) dividend track record and cash level.
 @ China Sunsine' s plant in Weifang. NextInsight file photo.
Elevated rubber accelerator (RA) prices. The tight RA supply in 2014 was caused by the shutting down of a number of factories as their waste discharge have failed to meet environmental standards. Strict enforcement is likely to remain under the current
regime in Beijing, with even stricter environment standards and laws set to kick-in come FY15. The booming automotive market will also continue to drive demand for tires and therefore, rubber chemicals.
Expect FY14 earnings to almost triple. Net profit for FY14F is expected to hit RMB216m from RMB77m in 2013, fuelled by a combination of higher ASPs, operating leverage and lower raw material costs. We also expect FY15F earnings to grow 8% to RMB234m, with the assumptions of 1) 7% fall in overall ASP, being offset by 2) higher capacity and sales volume, and 3) expected cost savings of RMB30m from its newly built heating plant but higher raw materials costs.
Still undervalued despite recent run potential dividend hike. Sunsine is currently trading at 4.3x FY15F P/E at a forward CAGR of 8% between FY14F - FY16F. Given its unprecedentedly strong prospects, we argue that Sunsine should at the very least be trading at the top of its historical trading P/E of 6-7x. We therefore ascribe a target price of S$0.69 to Sunsine, which is pegged at 7x FY15F P/E.
Capital appreciation aside, we also believe a dividend hike to c.1.4 Scts from 1 Sct is on the cards and we believe such a move will greatly boost investor confidence in this counter.
 @ China Sunsine' s HQ in Shanxian in Sept 2014: Singapore analysts, media and investors meet with CEO Liu Jing Fu and senior management. NextInsight file photo.
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Quality S-chip
We believe Sunsine is a quality S-chip that stands out against the rest. Our faith in this counter is premised upon a number of positive indications. Hence, we believe investors should not miss out on this gem just because of the &ldquo S-chip stigma&rdquo . The following are some of the positive observations that help strengthen our belief in this company.
Sales numbers matches up with volume and external market prices
Through our findings on the average market selling price of RAs and OAs in the Shandong region (from oilchem.net), our back-testing found that Sunsine&rsquo s reported sales numbers actually held up very well against our own estimated sales numbers. Our estimated back tested sales numbers were calculated using the average market selling price multiplied by Sunisne&rsquo s reported sales volume.
Reliable market share data
We also did a further cross-check on Sunsine&rsquo s announced global market share figures against our own approximate market share findings. We approximated Sunsine&rsquo s international RA sales volume (not disclosed) by assuming that it was sold at the same proportion as its total international sales volume (disclosed). By comparing this approximated international RA sales volume against UN Comtrade&rsquo s global RA exports, we were able to derive our own approximate calculation of Sunsine&rsquo s global RA market share.
We found that Amfraser&rsquo s derivation of Sunsine&rsquo s market share to be largely consistent with Sunsine&rsquo s reported RA global market share. Some deviations between the two numbers are expected as 1) Our RA sales volume is only an approximated figure, and 2) the base global export figures used could vary depending on data source (Sunsine used data from tirebusiness.com).
Dividend track record / cash levels
When investing in an S-chip, one of the key things to check out would be the company&rsquo s dividend track record and its cash levels. We believe it would be a red flag, if a S-chip company has high levels of cash but does not pay dividends (a red flag that the cash might not actually be there). Since its IPO, Sunsine has been constantly paying dividends of 1 Sct per share. We also did not detect any unusually high cash levels.
More dividends on the cards
We believe a dividend hike is on the cards given Sunsine&rsquo s expected impressive earnings. For FY14, we expect dividends to increase 40% to 1.4 Scts from 1 Scts in FY13, on an assumed dividend pay out ratio of 15%. While this 40% expected rise in dividends may not seem to match the 181% expected increase in FY14F earnings, we believe it is not unfair.
Over the last seven years of Sunsine&rsquo s listed history, it has been paying out dividends of 1 Sct per share, on negative free cash flows every year, except in FY08 and FY13. We therefore think that it will be more prudent for management to still reward shareholders with some increase in dividends but also start to conserve some cash at the same time. Given the turn in tide in Sunsine&rsquo s business, we are expecting free cash flow to remain positive in the foreseeable future and dividends to continue to increase.
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You are welcome. If China gets serious with environment issues and corruption and corporate governance then Sunsine is in good stead. The Chairman emphasized more than once that they paid taxes diligently and take issue of environment protection seriously. I know there are issues of s chip stigma but they have been paying dividend regularly and the cash must be there. With the recent field trip by analsysts, investors and broker houses, we are also assured that the company is not an empty shell... the factories, the materials, the workers, the products, the construction (of the heating plant) etc are all real! They also borrowed money from banks for expansion rather than issuing right issue or placement (which will dilute shareholders' existing shareholding esp placement). The banks wouldn' t anyhow lend money we all know. Nevertheless, we owe it to ourselves to keep tap of company' s affairs closely.., just in case if there is anything amiss, we still can act in time..
bandits272 ( Date: 25-Oct-2014 16:28) Posted:
tq for the link again...
this surely make china sunsine in a better position. hope the result his quarter is great too!!
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tq for the link again...
this surely make china sunsine in a better position. hope the result his quarter is great too!!
https://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=Vn0fexAdjE&n=434745.PDF
Try again?
Hi HVRRVH,
The link cant see... wat is it abt?
HVRRVH ( Date: 24-Oct-2014 22:01) Posted:
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Sunsine in good position but can' t expect more than double yoy earnings, 50% maybe?
www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pd...fexAdjE& n=434745.PDF
Results out next month. If less than double, it would be disappointing.
bandits272 ( Date: 24-Oct-2014 15:13) Posted:
these two days like no trading on this counter?
is there any result?
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these two days like no trading on this counter?
is there any result?
see on news or weakness on this counter again?
I always like how they announce " positive profit alert"
Will buy this if only i have spare cash.
Damn it Stats C and SinoG!
This stock gapped up today and may start to run again
See the entry and exit price at my blog
masterstocktrader blog spot sg
gapped up :)
Company just announced positive profit alert through SGX. Good news. 3q result to be released before 14.11.14. Net profit could be 50% more yoy based on current trend.
looks like some hidden buying going on.
