ESR-REIT

Cambridge Ind Trust Results Announcement

They always OVERPAID for AEIs.. then when fund raising they always issue shares at low low price.. Then when acquire assets or merger, they also overpaid.. In the end, the more merger/AEIs they do, the more the NTA and DPU tanked.

Thats why Sabana shareholders deny ESR manager from issueing shares (for AEIs or acquiring assets)...

Alignment ( Date: 05-Oct-2023 18:22) Posted:

At the current share price they should be buying back shares rather than doing further AEI - better returns.

received long time ago.. 27 Sept for cash and 28 Sept for CPF

whereru ( Date: 05-Oct-2023 18:27) Posted:

I have not received the dividends which is supposed to be payable on 27/28 Sep in my CPF investment account. Anyone in the same situation? My agent bank is OCBC.

At the current share price they should be buying back shares rather than doing further AEI - better returns.

2Y treasuries at 5.2% and 30yr crossed 5%. If we stay higher for longer, that is going to cause a lot of pain not just for REITs but for businesses, mortgages, etc

Trader$1 ( Date: 04-Oct-2023 12:53) Posted:

US government bond yield hits new high 4.86 %. Bloodbath in all reits....

DBS keeps ' buy' call on ESR-LOGOS REIT following sale of Tuas property at above valuation

DBS Group Research has kept its " buy" call and 38 cents target price on ESR-LOGOS REIT J91U -1.79% , following news of its divestment of one of its properties.

On Oct 2, the REIT announced it has sold 2 Tuas South Avenue 2 for $53 million. The property has a NLA of 20,192 sqm and is currently master-leased to LHN Group.

" The divestment at a 35.2% premium to valuation is also a welcome sign, especially as interest rates remain high and we understand that there are more industrial assets put on the market for sale," says DBS in its Oct 2 note.

DBS estimates the exit yield at a very attractive at around 4%, especially as interest rates remain high and as there is competition from more assets put up for sale on the market.

" The divestment will also help to reduce EREIT&rsquo s lease expiry exposure to single-tenanted buildings, and allow them to continue benefiting from the strong positive rental reversions seen at its high-specs industrial and logistics spaces," adds DBS.

If proceeds are used to repay loans, gearing could improve by around 0.8% to 32.8% - assuming divestment proceeds from earlier announced divestments are also utilised to repay loans. The impact to DPU will be minimal as all-in borrowing costs are also close to 4%.

" Overall, we see this as a positive for EREIT as they continue to carry out their portfolio rejuvenation and repositioning," says DBS, adding that including this divestment, EREIT would have completed around $400 million in divestments this year, on target of their earlier announced plans to divest up to $450 million.

With gearing brought down to 33%, the REIT will have ample headroom to embark on their planned AEIs and redevelopments, as well as to embark on further accretive acquisitions.

With less than $200 million that will be due for refinancing in FY24, ESR-LOGOS REIT will only have around 10% of all its loans due for refinancing next year, says DBS.

" Following the unexpected trading volumes and share price weakness last week, this divestment reaffirms the REIT&rsquo s ability to continue on its portfolio rejuvenation and repositioning exercise," reasons DBS, which is keeping its " buy" call and 38 cents target prices, and estimating that at current levels, the REIT is generating a forward yield of around 9%.

Based on today' s closing price of 27c and Bloomberg consensus estimates, the stock is now yielding 10.4%. Of course this is likely to come off after their recent divestments however it still marks quite a significant yield spread of c.300 bps) vs other industrial peers such as Sabana REIT (7.7% yield) and AA REIT (7.4%).

DBS reiterates 38c TP with their update note today.

Smallinvestor ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 21:11) Posted:

Yup market sentiment is very bad. Even Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis. However if got holding power, I believed now is a good time to slowly(not all at once) accumulate, yield can be 10% or more if price is lower. To me 8-9% dividend is already very good. When interest rate fall maybe next year, cost of debt will be lower and reits return shall be higher with higher share price then. US debt already 33 trillion. If fed keep hiking the interest, they are just killing themselves faster. Now the interest they are paying for their debt is already very high and this will eventually add on to their debt.

Trader$1 ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 10:50) Posted:

market sentiment is really bad. with UST 10y climbing to almost 4.70%, a high since 2007, markets are spooked. Reits is so highly sensitive to yield moves now. Markets were too optimistic with FED rate cuts 2024. Since Jerome Powell stressed " higher for longer" , markets are struggling to digest

Selling assets and then over pay for AEIs/Assets/merger. No wonder NTA drop and drop.
1) Revised costs for one of the AEIs is S$53million compared to expected costs of S$35.7million.
2) Another one revised costs is S$32million compared to expected costs of S$25.9million.

Their coming $240million AEI they may overpay. All these assets sold but the money anyhow use and overpay then throw money away. No wonder DPU and NTA keep dropping every year.

Trader$1 ( Date: 02-Oct-2023 15:45) Posted:

ESR-Logos Reit divests Tuas asset at 35.2% premium to valuation

A lot of Singapore shares are still quite undervalue. Don't understand why institutional investors don't start scoping undervalue stocks in Singapore. Lol

Smallinvestor ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 21:11) Posted:

Yup market sentiment is very bad. Even Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis. However if got holding power, I believed now is a good time to slowly(not all at once) accumulate, yield can be 10% or more if price is lower. To me 8-9% dividend is already very good. When interest rate fall maybe next year, cost of debt will be lower and reits return shall be higher with higher share price then. US debt already 33 trillion. If fed keep hiking the interest, they are just killing themselves faster. Now the interest they are paying for their debt is already very high and this will eventually add on to their debt.

Trader$1 ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 10:50) Posted:

market sentiment is really bad. with UST 10y climbing to almost 4.70%, a high since 2007, markets are spooked. Reits is so highly sensitive to yield moves now. Markets were too optimistic with FED rate cuts 2024. Since Jerome Powell stressed " higher for longer" , markets are struggling to digest

That is an eye-catching premium. Pity it is only one relatively small asset.

ESR-Logos Reit divests Tuas asset at 35.2% premium to valuation

Yup market sentiment is very bad. Even Ray Dalio says the U.S. is going to have a debt crisis. However if got holding power, I believed now is a good time to slowly(not all at once) accumulate, yield can be 10% or more if price is lower. To me 8-9% dividend is already very good. When interest rate fall maybe next year, cost of debt will be lower and reits return shall be higher with higher share price then. US debt already 33 trillion. If fed keep hiking the interest, they are just killing themselves faster. Now the interest they are paying for their debt is already very high and this will eventually add on to their debt.

Trader$1 ( Date: 29-Sep-2023 10:50) Posted:

market sentiment is really bad. with UST 10y climbing to almost 4.70%, a high since 2007, markets are spooked. Reits is so highly sensitive to yield moves now. Markets were too optimistic with FED rate cuts 2024. Since Jerome Powell stressed " higher for longer" , markets are struggling to digest.

Smallinvestor ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 11:24) Posted:

Today sell down again. A lot of short selling from sgx shortselling data. Hope past few days buyers are not those who contra or margin, if not more sell off after 3 trading days and if share prices lower. Over 50klots traded when down. Yesterday also trapped quite a lot buyer.

market sentiment is really bad. with UST 10y climbing to almost 4.70%, a high since 2007, markets are spooked. Reits is so highly sensitive to yield moves now. Markets were too optimistic with FED rate cuts 2024. Since Jerome Powell stressed " higher for longer" , markets are struggling to digest.

Smallinvestor ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 11:24) Posted:

Today sell down again. A lot of short selling from sgx shortselling data. Hope past few days buyers are not those who contra or margin, if not more sell off after 3 trading days and if share prices lower. Over 50klots traded when down. Yesterday also trapped quite a lot buyer.

after the sharp rebound you more or less know is fear mongering that led to the sell off

but no choice. in this market everyone is scared of REITs coming out hat in hand asking unitholders for more money

Trader$1 ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 01:00) Posted:

good point.
From Biz time article june 23,

" The manager expects net proceeds after divestment costs for all seven properties to be S$322.4 million.

The net proceeds may also be recycled to fund higher-quality new-economy assets and upcoming asset-enhancement initiatives and redevelopment works, said the manager"

n3wbie ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 00:20) Posted:

Thanks for helping to extract the relevant for everyone' s benefit. Just a thought - if the expected construction will take 29 months, wouldn' t that cost be in phases and potentially there could be planned asset monetizations to help offset some of those expected milestone payments?

They had earlier this year recapitalized their balance sheet with a $300M EFR, wouldnt quite expect another one again so soon at least

good point.
From Biz time article june 23,

" The manager expects net proceeds after divestment costs for all seven properties to be S$322.4 million.

The net proceeds may also be recycled to fund higher-quality new-economy assets and upcoming asset-enhancement initiatives and redevelopment works, said the manager"

n3wbie ( Date: 28-Sep-2023 00:20) Posted:

Thanks for helping to extract the relevant for everyone' s benefit. Just a thought - if the expected construction will take 29 months, wouldn' t that cost be in phases and potentially there could be planned asset monetizations to help offset some of those expected milestone payments?

They had earlier this year recapitalized their balance sheet with a $300M EFR, wouldnt quite expect another one again so soon at least.

luckyguy3 ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 17:58) Posted:

They are going to announce the $240million cold facilities AEI. I bet another fund raising coming .. $240million is no joke.

If they borrow $240million, now interest rate so high, their debt burden going to increase, thats why most likely another round of
fund raising.. scary la

Thanks for helping to extract the relevant for everyone' s benefit. Just a thought - if the expected construction will take 29 months, wouldn' t that cost be in phases and potentially there could be planned asset monetizations to help offset some of those expected milestone payments?

They had earlier this year recapitalized their balance sheet with a $300M EFR, wouldnt quite expect another one again so soon at least.

luckyguy3 ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 17:58) Posted:

They are going to announce the $240million cold facilities AEI. I bet another fund raising coming .. $240million is no joke.

If they borrow $240million, now interest rate so high, their debt burden going to increase, thats why most likely another round of
fund raising.. scary la

Trader$1 ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 14:37) Posted:

thanks. issuing share below NAV is bad indeed. also divestment below valuation. but on the positive note, i thought they were repairing balance sheet. short term pain long term gain

My own view is that they won' t have to do a rights issue, at least for this disclosed AEI. The total estimated cost on that slide is similar to the S$337m non-core disposal proceeds they have raised which is not yet included the 1H23 results, so these basically net off to get you back to just under 40% gearing. In the meantime they will probably do a few more asset sales to get that ratio back diown a bit, and in any event the capex for that cold storage faciliity is some way out so they have time.

Then going forward beyond their disclosed AEI in that slide, if they want to execute further future AEI or acquisitions then I agree they likely will need an equity raise. If they had sense though they would wait till they showed a couple of years' worth of growing DPU which would boost the share price thus facilitating an accretive equity funded investment. Otherwise the downward cycle will continue..

They are going to announce the $240million cold facilities AEI. I bet another fund raising coming .. $240million is no joke.

If they borrow $240million, now interest rate so high, their debt burden going to increase, thats why most likely another round of
fund raising.. scary la

Trader$1 ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 14:37) Posted:

thanks. issuing share below NAV is bad indeed. also divestment below valuation. but on the positive note, i thought they were repairing balance sheet. short term pain long term gain.

Alignment ( Date: 27-Sep-2023 13:54) Posted:

Depends on what you mean by recent, but over time there have been several share issuances priced below NAV per share. Also declines in values of investment properties

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Cambridge Ind Trust Results Announcement

ESR-Logos Reit divests Tuas asset at 35.2% premium to valuation

ESR-Logos Reit divests Tuas asset at 35.2% premium to valuation