Viva Ind Tr   

Viva Industrial Trust

Yes, not much meat left. Insiders who do it last week will have more meat.

tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 12:44) Posted: Assuming  I have 100 lots  ESR and I sell now instantly. ==> $515 x 100 = $51500. Then i use this $51500 to buy Viva at 91 cents ==> $51500/910 = 56.59 lots If I wait for the deal, I get  56.59 x 1.6 =  90.544 lots ESR + 56.59 x $96 cash = $5432. Assuming sell now price: ESR = 51.5 cents. ==> Viva  90.544 lots total worth if wait for deal  = (90.544 x 515) + $5432 = $52062 So profit is around $500. Then minus commission for selling ESR around $200+ and commission for buying Viva = $200+,  assuming commission = 0.25% + tax + admin fee + misc fee. hahaha not much meat liao.   handyman      ( Date: 21-May-2018 12:00) Posted: Earlier post was deleted due to calculation error. For every 100,000 shares arbitrage... selling ESR at 0.515 and buying back VIT at 0.91, the gain is only 625 before brokage fees. Not much meat

 

Assuming  I have 100 lots  ESR and I sell now instantly. ==> $515 x 100 = $51500.
Then i use this $51500 to buy Viva at 91 cents ==> $51500/910 = 56.59 lots

If I wait for the deal,
I get  56.59 x 1.6 =  90.544 lots ESR + 56.59 x $96 cash = $5432. Assuming sell now price: ESR = 51.5 cents.
==> Viva  90.544 lots total worth if wait for deal  = (90.544 x 515) + $5432 = $52062

So profit is around $500. Then minus commission for selling ESR around $200+ and commission for buying Viva = $200+,  assuming commission = 0.25% + tax + admin fee + misc fee.

hahaha not much meat liao.

 

handyman      ( Date: 21-May-2018 12:00) Posted: Earlier post was deleted due to calculation error. For every 100,000 shares arbitrage... selling ESR at 0.515 and buying back VIT at 0.91, the gain is only 625 before brokage fees. Not much meat . Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

For more clarity and base on current bid price of 0.515 for ESR and offer price of 0.91 for  VIT.
Sell 100,000 ESR  @0.515. procced before brokerage = 51500
Buy 62,500 VIT @ 0.91. Cost before brokerage  = 56875
Cash top up = 56875 minus 51500 = $5375
When scheme  goes thru, holders of 62500 VIT shares will received 62500 x 1.6 = 100,000 ESR shares AND 62,500 x $0.096 = $6000 in cash.
Gain be4 brokerage  > $6000 - $5375 = $625.

handyman      ( Date: 21-May-2018 12:00) Posted: Earlier post was deleted due to calculation error. For every 100,000 shares arbitrage... selling ESR at 0.515 and buying back VIT at 0.91, the gain is only 625 before brokage fees. Not much meat . Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

Earlier post was deleted due to calculation error. For every 100,000 shares arbitrage... selling ESR at 0.515 and buying back VIT at 0.91, the gain is only 625 before brokage fees. Not much meat .

Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

Haha..lol.. at the male female and reproduction analogy

Starship      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:47) Posted: But very soon when the chio bu start to give birth will be in pain.  tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:14) Posted: Is like a man(ESR) trying to marry a chio bu (viva trading at  premium even before deal annoucement), short term he has to pay/spend more and also more  dowry to attract the chio bu to become his wife. BUT long term wise whole life have a chio bu as wife. So short term pain , long term gain. Now Viva shareholders (chio bu) are the happier lot , ESR shareholders (man) are the painful lot , but short term la.

 

market not reacting as i would have expected for first day post announcement. 

both viva and esr are trading about 5% below implied theoritical swap price: viva at 91c vs 96c esr at 51c vs 54c. Since 90% of viva will be swapped for esr, so viva and esr should move lockstep. 

first reit M& A, good to see what comes next and when a re-rating happens.   

Starship      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:47) Posted: But very soon when the chio bu start to give birth will be in pain.  tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:14) Posted: Is like a man(ESR) trying to marry a chio bu (viva trading at  premium even before deal annoucement), short term he has to pay/spend more and also more  dowry to attract the chio bu to become his wife. BUT long term wise whole life have a chio bu as wife. So short term pain , long term gain. Now Viva shareholders (chio bu) are the happier lot , ESR shareholders (man) are the painful lot , but short term la.

 

But very soon when the chio bu start to give birth will be in pain. 

tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:14) Posted: Is like a man(ESR) trying to marry a chio bu (viva trading at  premium even before deal annoucement), short term he has to pay/spend more and also more  dowry to attract the chio bu to become his wife. BUT long term wise whole life have a chio bu as wife. So short term pain , long term gain. Now Viva shareholders (chio bu) are the happier lot , ESR shareholders (man) are the painful lot , but short term la.. Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

Combined dpu/new share at 54cts = 8%
52cts lagi must buy 😄

tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:11) Posted: Infact  I think I am unhappy now hahaha compared to viva shareholders like u :) But think long term then i agree with the terms of the merger laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:09) Posted: There will always be unhappy esr unit holder. But it's buying opportunity.

 

Is like a man(ESR) trying to marry a chio bu (viva trading at  premium even before deal annoucement), short term he has to pay/spend more and also more  dowry to attract the chio bu to become his wife. BUT long term wise whole life have a chio bu as wife. So short term pain , long term gain.

Now Viva shareholders (chio bu) are the happier lot , ESR shareholders (man) are the painful lot , but short term la..

Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

Infact  I think I am unhappy now hahaha compared to viva shareholders like u :)

But think long term then i agree with the terms of the merger

laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:09) Posted: There will always be unhappy esr unit holder. But it's buying opportunity.

 

Contra players selling becos last fri halted then some contra players bought before 15 May thinking annoucement to be made but later discussion  pushed to 31 May meaning 16 May onwards contra players (those  who bought  on 14th and earlier)  start selling when no news was annouced. Then suddenly on 18 May  trading was halted so those supposed to sell on Fri all selling today.

Marko1975      ( Date: 21-May-2018 10:00) Posted: Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

There will always be unhappy esr unit holder. But it's buying opportunity.

 

Strange esr dropped.. viva slightly up.. market consensus dont like the deal?

 

Accumulating opportunity

tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 09:16) Posted: Bro, think for the next 4 mths no need to monitor liao.. share price will be stagnant liao.. can go for holiday and watch world cup 2018. Come back in 4 mths time aka September and maybe August when the EGM is held.   laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 09:09) Posted: I too was sceptical at first but am convinced at 96cts it's a good deal for both ESR and VIva unitholders. Win-Win both immediate and long term. Will hold and wait for dpu to rise even further thru cost saving, transparent tax benefit, index inclusion, more tenancy. And potential merger with Sabana which have been scrubbing clean by the new CEO. Cabana metric are getting better in each quarter.

 

Bro, think for the next 4 mths no need to monitor liao.. share price will be stagnant liao.. can go for holiday and watch world cup 2018. Come back in 4 mths time aka September and maybe August when the EGM is held.

 

laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 09:09) Posted: I too was sceptical at first but am convinced at 96cts it's a good deal for both ESR and VIva unitholders. Win-Win both immediate and long term. Will hold and wait for dpu to rise even further thru cost saving, transparent tax benefit, index inclusion, more tenancy. And potential merger with Sabana which have been scrubbing clean by the new CEO. Cabana metric are getting better in each quarter. Clipper      ( Date: 21-May-2018 08:55) Posted: I am sure the enlarged entity have benefits and potential in the future. I suppose I am speaking only from VIT shareholder point of view at this moment and of course, I wish to maximise my investment in VIT. I may or may not hold ESR REITs in the future.

 

hahaha.. looks like ESR shareholders not very happy with the deal too cos today share price 52 cents. Think ESR shareholders think we are paying too much for Viva.

Think share price will be stagnant for the next 4 mths for both ESR and Viva until September when all the unknowns are cleared and merged confirmed.

In the meantime just collect dividends liao and watch world cup 2018. :)

Cheers

 

Clipper      ( Date: 21-May-2018 09:05) Posted: sure bro, on the hindsight... As investor, we have our own responsibilities to maximise our investment. I am vested in VIT, and may or may not choose to invest in ESR. From VIT shareholder point of view the 96 cents is on the low side. Shareholders who bought VIT at say 95 cents or higher during the past 6 months may not find the 96 cents attractive. This is just my opinion and concern.  tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 07:53) Posted: Using soccer example is like Everton merge with Newcastle to become one of the 4 big clubs. Then everton insists of having 1 more  player  in the new team and then vote down against the merger becos  Everton not willing to compromise on that  1 more player request. In the end, deal unsuccessful and Everton remains forever middle table club and fighting for survival instead of fighting for champions league against teams like Real Madrid and having huge crowd every match. Compare to willing to  compromise and let the merger go ahead and become the new liverpool and in the long run become top team in england and challenge for champions league  and  racking in  tons of $$$..

 

I too was sceptical at first but am convinced at 96cts it's a good deal for both ESR and VIva unitholders. Win-Win both immediate and long term. Will hold and wait for dpu to rise even further thru cost saving, transparent tax benefit, index inclusion, more tenancy.
And potential merger with Sabana which have been scrubbing clean by the new CEO. Cabana metric are getting better in each quarter.

Clipper      ( Date: 21-May-2018 08:55) Posted: I am sure the enlarged entity have benefits and potential in the future. I suppose I am speaking only from VIT shareholder point of view at this moment and of course, I wish to maximise my investment in VIT. I may or may not hold ESR REITs in the future.   laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 08:34) Posted: Forgot to add that beside immediate rise in new ESR share yield, subsequent saving in leaner mgmt, better loan rate, lower maintenance contract, etc will drive dpu higher.Potential index inclusion. 65cts for new esr quite conservative lia

 

sure bro, on the hindsight...
As investor, we have our own responsibilities to maximise our investment. I am vested in VIT, and may or may not choose to invest in ESR. From VIT shareholder point of view the 96 cents is on the low side. Shareholders who bought VIT at say 95 cents or higher during the past 6 months may not find the 96 cents attractive. This is just my opinion and concern. 

tonylim70      ( Date: 21-May-2018 07:53) Posted: Using soccer example is like Everton merge with Newcastle to become one of the 4 big clubs. Then everton insists of having 1 more  player  in the new team and then vote down against the merger becos  Everton not willing to compromise on that  1 more player request. In the end, deal unsuccessful and Everton remains forever middle table club and fighting for survival instead of fighting for champions league against teams like Real Madrid and having huge crowd every match. Compare to willing to  compromise and let the merger go ahead and become the new liverpool and in the long run become top team in england and challenge for champions league  and  racking in  tons of $$$..  Clipper      ( Date: 21-May-2018 01:55) Posted: VIT share price was trading 95 cents, there about, before the merger annoucement. A day after the annoucement broke it started to fall to eventually settle at the 88-89 region. IMO, there is little incentive, if any, for VIT shareholder to accept the 96 cents merger offer. A higher, say 8-10% more, to the 96 cents offer will be reasonable and makes the offer attarctive for VIT shareholders to accept, ...IMO

 

I am sure the enlarged entity have benefits and potential in the future. I suppose I am speaking only from VIT shareholder point of view at this moment and of course, I wish to maximise my investment in VIT. I may or may not hold ESR REITs in the future.  

laksaman57      ( Date: 21-May-2018 08:34) Posted: Forgot to add that beside immediate rise in new ESR share yield, subsequent saving in leaner mgmt, better loan rate, lower maintenance contract, etc will drive dpu higher.Potential index inclusion. 65cts for new esr quite conservative liao laksaman57      ( Date: 20-May-2018 17:06) Posted: 96cts offer provide opportunity for new ESR price growth. By combining present dpu, yield for new ESR share at 54cts should be 8%. Re-rating should boost the price to 65cts with competitive yield of 6.6% as compare to Mapletree Ind trust at only 5.9%.

 

Forgot to add that beside immediate rise in new ESR share yield, subsequent saving in leaner mgmt, better loan rate, lower maintenance contract, etc will drive dpu higher.Potential index inclusion. 65cts for new esr quite conservative liao

laksaman57      ( Date: 20-May-2018 17:06) Posted: 96cts offer provide opportunity for new ESR price growth. By combining present dpu, yield for new ESR share at 54cts should be 8%. Re-rating should boost the price to 65cts with competitive yield of 6.6% as compare to Mapletree Ind trust at only 5.9%. Clipper      ( Date: 20-May-2018 16:14) Posted: bro, long time no chat, hope you huat huat so far in 2018 ! I suppose you still vested with VIT shares. I thought the 96 cents offer (10% cash and 90% ESR shares) is on the low side. Imagine those shareholders who enter just before or after its flagship Viva Business Park opening on 16 Aug 2017, the 96 cents offer is no better than what most would have paid from Aug 2017 to just before the merger news. IMO, I thought Viva management could have negotiated a more convincing deal than this current offer.