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yap.. but if u itchy fingers want to trade, perhaps can load CDL Htrust in late Oct and then sell when it rises in
Nov/Dec. :)
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 18:33) Posted:
| I suppose we buy and hold for long time. Half year movements are not so relevant unless we want to just trade. But I recommend this for long term dividend investing. |
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I suppose we buy and hold for long time. Half year movements are not so relevant unless we want to just trade. But I recommend this for long term dividend investing.
The exception is 2021: Nov share price rose but dropped in Dec. That time was Covid circuit breaker implementation if i am not wrong.
So a new pattern may develop if
1) FED decides no more rate cuts
or
2) Covid version 2 returns with circuit breaker
If not I quite confident share price will follow the pattern and rise until next year Jan.. But by the time we confirm the pattern, will be too late
to load already.
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 18:26) Posted:
U have a knack for patterns. Luckyguy3
I think you can be a pattern investor.
Provided, we understand that new patterns are being developed all the time.
A new pattern may develop for 2024.
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U have a knack for patterns. Luckyguy3
I think you can be a pattern investor.
Provided, we understand that new patterns are being developed all the time.
A new pattern may develop for 2024.
Yes u are right. This pattern occurs becos 2H dividend is higher... wow huat liao.. so I buy end of Oct every year and then sell in Nov/Dec I huat every
year is it? haha
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 13:20) Posted:
I guess more to travel related reits only. Other reits less cyclical compared to this.
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:56) Posted:
Ya i was wondering for CDL Htrust , 100% hit rate that October for the past few years, is the month that share price
dropped to a low then recovered in November, 100% all the time since year 2020.
Whether this pattern applies to Hospitality reits only due to year end where more ppl travel and thus
help the hotel business or this pattern applies to all reits?
Pattern means Near the end of October dropped to low then recovers in November with 100% possibility for
the past 4-5 year |
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If u look at the chart, 2020 - 2023 all the years , the share price did jumped in September until started to dropped
in October then start rising again... eg: Look at 2023 for example, it touched $1.05 in late September/Early Oct before dropping to
93.5 cents in late october then started rising to $1.05 again in November.
Same patter this year.. Touched $1.02 in late September/Early Oct before dropping to 90 cents now (late october), so
assuming same pattern, we should expect it to go back to $1 to $1.02 in November/December again ..
Maybe I attached a clearer picture.
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 17:33) Posted:
One point to note is that for 2024, the share price did rise to near 100 before falling back towards 90. So the rise may already have taken place and any rise may be delayed. Also note the highs are getting lower.
I guess high interest rates do not help
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 16:58) Posted:
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One point to note is that for 2024, the share price did rise to near 100 before falling back towards 90. So the rise may already have taken place and any rise may be delayed. Also note the highs are getting lower.
I guess high interest rates do not help
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 16:58) Posted:
Cadence88 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 14:10) Posted:
| I think it' s not about the month .. more about interest rate cut expectation has cooled down .. and Trump' s chance has increased since the recent Reit rally after Fed interest rate cut |
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Cadence88 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 14:10) Posted:
I think it' s not about the month .. more about interest rate cut expectation has cooled down .. and Trump' s chance has increased since the recent Reit rally after Fed interest rate cut.
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:46) Posted:
So October is the month when reits dropped? November is the month the reits recover?
I only based on my observation on CDL HTrust. 100% of the last 5 years, November is the
month when share price recovered. Cannot be coincidence right? |
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I think it' s not about the month .. more about interest rate cut expectation has cooled down .. and Trump' s chance has increased since the recent Reit rally after Fed interest rate cut.
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:46) Posted:
So October is the month when reits dropped? November is the month the reits recover?
I only based on my observation on CDL HTrust. 100% of the last 5 years, November is the
month when share price recovered. Cannot be coincidence right?
Cadence88 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 11:17) Posted:
| Almost all Reits are dropping .. it is not just about CDL |
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I guess more to travel related reits only. Other reits less cyclical compared to this.
luckyguy3 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:56) Posted:
Ya i was wondering for CDL Htrust , 100% hit rate that October for the past few years, is the month that share price
dropped to a low then recovered in November, 100% all the time since year 2020.
Whether this pattern applies to Hospitality reits only due to year end where more ppl travel and thus
help the hotel business or this pattern applies to all reits?
Pattern means Near the end of October dropped to low then recovers in November with 100% possibility for
the past 4-5 years
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:49) Posted:
| Nov will have a recovery of travel for year end. More business |
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Ya i was wondering for CDL Htrust , 100% hit rate that October for the past few years, is the month that share price
dropped to a low then recovered in November, 100% all the time since year 2020.
Whether this pattern applies to Hospitality reits only due to year end where more ppl travel and thus
help the hotel business or this pattern applies to all reits?
Pattern means Near the end of October dropped to low then recovers in November with 100% possibility for
the past 4-5 years
MrBear12 ( Date: 31-Oct-2024 12:49) Posted:
| Nov will have a recovery of travel for year end. More business |
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Nov will have a recovery of travel for year end. More business
DBS: $1.20
http://www.minichart.com.sg/2024/10/30/cdl-hospitality-trust-navigating-market-challenges-with-strategic-acquisitions-and-resilient-performance/
CDL Hospitality Trust Overview
Date: October 29, 2024
Broker: CGS International
Performance Summary
CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT) experienced a decline in its 3Q revenue and net property income (NPI), with a year-over-year decrease of 3.7% and 6.8%, respectively. For the first nine months of FY24 (9M24), revenue and NPI increased by 2.9% and 1.0%, respectively, largely supported by performance in Singapore, Australia, Japan, and Germany. Among the eight geographical markets, seven outperformed 2019 levels in 3Q24, with New Zealand being the only exception.
RevPAR Analysis
In 3Q24, RevPAR performance varied significantly across the portfolio. Australia saw a notable increase of 17.5% YoY, while Germany experienced a 12.4% YoY rise. Japan&rsquo s RevPAR grew by 16.5% YoY, and the Maldives reported an increase of 12.3% YoY. Conversely, Singapore faced a 10.3% YoY decline in RevPAR due to lower average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy levels, stemming from a high base in 3Q23. Other regions such as New Zealand and Italy also reported declines of 17.2% and 7.4% YoY, respectively.
Financial Metrics
The cost of debt for CDREIT increased by 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 4.4% as of 3Q24, with gearing rising from 37.7% in 2Q to 38.8% in 3Q. Management projects that gearing will reach approximately 39.5% following the acquisition of Hotel Indigo Exeter. The interest coverage ratio (ICR) showed a slight improvement to 2.55x, compared to 2.66x in the first half of FY24.
Recent Acquisition
On October 15, 2024, CDL Hospitality Trust announced the acquisition of Hotel Indigo Exeter along with two retail units for £ 19.4 million (approximately S$33.2 million), representing about 1.1% of its assets under management (AUM). The upscale lifestyle boutique hotel, which features 104 rooms, reopened in October 2023 after renovation. The management anticipates a stabilised net property income (NPI) yield of around 8%, with stabilization expected in FY26F. This acquisition is viewed as a strategic opportunity to enhance operational performance.
Market Outlook
For FY24, CDREIT expects the cost of debt to remain stable in the low-4% range. Management is confident that the company is not constrained by its gearing levels and will continue to pursue acquisition opportunities. The outlook remains optimistic despite mixed performance across various markets, primarily due to ongoing asset enhancement initiatives and positive trends in key regions.
Investment Recommendation
CGS International maintains an &ldquo Add&rdquo recommendation for CDL Hospitality Trust, with a DDM-based target price of S$1.16. This reflects a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of S$0.925. Key risks identified include lower-than-expected leisure and corporate travel demand, which could impact occupancy rates and room pricing.
I believe history often repeats itself. So I hold cdl
I will queue behind Alignment.
He wants 90
luckyguy3 ( Date: 30-Oct-2024 13:57) Posted:
90 liao.. bought? 90.5 can just buy from queue
MrBear12 ( Date: 30-Oct-2024 09:49) Posted:
Hotel business very hard. Competition stiff.
But see if can buy this below 90.
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90 liao.. bought? 90.5 can just buy from queue
MrBear12 ( Date: 30-Oct-2024 09:49) Posted:
Hotel business very hard. Competition stiff.
But see if can buy this below 90.
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