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Many analysis from broker flims had stop their buy call to hold.
Also some had given a " sell" rating.
The main point are below :
1) Major consumer segment - Thailand drop.
2) Major Food ingredient division - Indonesia drop.
3) Commodity prices rise - coffee beans, sugar all went up.
Sales for Super Group' s branded consumer segment ‐ which sells
instant coff ee, tea and cereal ‐ had been aff ected by the civil unrest in Thailand,
which it said has dampened consumer spending and
discouraged businesses from stocking up their inventories. The
country is Super Group' s largest market for the branded consumer division.
For its food ingredient division ‐ which manufactures soluble coffee
powders and non‐ dairy creamers for other beverage makers ‐ lower sales into
Indonesia was only partially offset by higher sales into
markets in the East Asia region.
Super Group' s branded consumer segment
For Thailand (sales -11% yoy), management guided that half of the sales
decline is due to forex effects, with a real slowdown in consumption driving the
other half. Not only are retailers and wholesalers pulling back orders in
anticipation of lower demand, but wholesalers are also facing rising bad debt
risks and have cut out some distributors. We also understand that sales
performance would have been even worse, if not for Super Group' s success in
breaking into the new markets in the northern states. Thailand is a big worry.
Food ingredient division
For SE Asia, Indonesia (largest market) saw sales declining 30% yoy.
This was partly due to:
1) the effects of a weaker Rp,
2) customers' pre-emptive stocking up in 4Q, in anticipation of rising commodity costs.
3) some customers losing end-market market shares for some products.
The latter two reasons crop up as new worries for Super Group' s investment thesis as
they imply that the strong 4Q13 performance for FI was due to the effects of pent-up
demand and the prior high-growth years for food ingredients might have hit a ceiling.
Commodity prices, parƟ cularly those for robusta coffee beans, sugar and crude palm oil
‐ key ingredients for Super' s instant beverages ‐ have risen over the fi rst quarter.
" Rising raw material costs will affect the F& B industry and the group' s operating performance.
Just my point of view. For those whose want to buy more to average do see the market direction first.
It may drop further but don' t blame me if it went up. I totally don' t have any share on this but just want your to be careful.
Given how super stock has fallen on previous quarter downgrades, where it fell from $4.46 to $3.11, I don't think it is still safe to accumulate. Base on charts, it looks like free fall with hardly any base because the 2 to 3 dollar range is very steep back then. Nevertheless, capital group accumulated the stock back then at about $2. I wld think that wld be a gd support.
That gave a good reason or excuse for short sellers to short Super Group.
danytan ( Date: 14-May-2014 18:43) Posted:
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I think i m in deep trouble... I bought at 3.02.........This time jialat liao
Interesting. CIMB posted a SELL call, a swing from its BUY call last month.
Aberdeen123 ( Date: 14-May-2014 17:28) Posted:
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must thank shorties for giving us the opportunity to buy cheap :)
Its the 30% that are playing cat and mouse game, until the 70% owners start to sell, I' d be really fearful. But unlikely, just a drop a profits, still making money.
Next 2-3days many will cover their Short Sell.
I will buy more to average my current holdings.I believed that its shares price will rebound soon since its company still making money and it has no cash flow problem.
Daiwa initiated with a BUY...TP of 3.95(2 May 14).Think their analysis is the most accurate so far.
Though we expect 1H14 core EPS to decline by about 12% YoY due to high commodity prices and slower economic growth in ASEAN, we believe these headwinds are cyclical and expect earnings to trough in 2Q14. We forecast a robust 15% YoY core EPS turnaround in 2H14, mainly supported by additional production capacity of soluble coffee powder and the gradual normalisation of gross margins, assuming easing commodity-price pressure.
Those who naked short caught naked :)
views r good, thats why we r here... to share. i wun be entering based on own views but this does not mean i do not see merits in other views aired.
Just bought some to avg.
Forgot to add. It is also a good takeover bid. Talk may have died down but it' s not dead! , It' s only a matter of time. Thai bev, kirin,F& N.......yr quess is as good as mine.
Relax........ One camp trying to make the other sell........ the other camp scarying the S*** out of ignorant investors.
Explained simply.
Simply put- A bonus is a free additional share.Usually companies accumulate it&rsquo s earnings in reserve funds instead of paying it to share-holders in form of dividend. This accumulated reserve fund is then converted into share-capital and allotted to share-holders as bonus shares in proportion to their existing holding. So, Share-capital of the company increases with a concomitant decrease in its Reserve profits. Share-holders get bonus shares in compensation of dividend.
One of the major reasons why companies declare bonus issues is that a higher number of shares improves float and liquidity and thereby traded volumes of the stock. A lower price also makes the stock seem more affordable to small retail investors, who might otherwise give it a miss at high price levels. Another aspect of a bonus issue is that it reflects the confidence of the company in its ability to service a larger equity base. Thus, bonus issues are said to be a good signaling mechanism on the company&rsquo s capacity to deliver future benefits to shareholders in terms of increased dividend.
Not all is positive with a bonus issue. In some cases, a bonus share ploy is used by companies to mask flagging performance and to perk up sentiment. But then again with Super it is doing well. Good anchor tenants. Do your own due deligence. Good Luck.
sure. time will tell, not looking great to me that' s all.
Else, how can we get a good and discounted stock ... value for money .. in any case, it' s normal or biz to encounter headwinds ... just ensure u have a good safety of margin? :)
danytan ( Date: 14-May-2014 15:45) Posted:
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Buy Liao. More than 15% Discount, Huat ah!!!!!!!!
Shorties please look at the SUPER GROUP chart, you would have noticed the black bar down and the nxt day White Bar Up..
So please continue to short :-)
2.96 left 10 lots. who is buying UP?
true ..so enter at a price that makes it value for money ... all stocks are gd buy at the right price ...