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ThaiBev: After falling -50%, is it time for me to buy?
It is 2016. You are lying on the beach in Phuket. Hot sweltering heat. Cold refreshing beer. Paradise on earth.Back in your office, you discovered ThaiBev brews your favourite beer in Thailand. Chang and its rival Singha form a cosy duopoly.
Your heart skipped a beat when you realised ThaiBev is listed in Singapore. Despite its seemingly expensive NTM P/E of 20x, you bought a significant block.
After all, you know the product well. The company has steadily grown its revenue by ~6% p.a. over the past 10 years.
Surely, 20x P/E is not that expensive for such a quality stable stock?
Fast forward 10 years, you have suffered a total loss of -20%. What happened?
More importantly, with its NTM P/E at an all-time low of 9x, is ThaiBev finally cheap enough to buy?
I decided to pass because near-term demand looks weaker than expected, but capex continues to increase.
While management has a great track record in Thailand, their capital allocation outside Thailand has delivered disappointing returns so far.
I discuss in detail here: https://angsanaanderson.substack.com/p/thaibev-after-falling-50-is-it-time?r=5rl2u5
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-thai-beverage-at-bbb-aa-tha-outlook-negative-withdraws-ratings-21-04-2026
The above link gives the full story. Fitch has BBB- with a negative outlook, so there was a risk of a downgrade which would have meant a junk rating for Thaibev. So management may have chosen to pre-empt that risk by sacking Fitch from providing a rating. Not a good sign.
The above link gives the full story. Fitch has BBB- with a negative outlook, so there was a risk of a downgrade which would have meant a junk rating for Thaibev. So management may have chosen to pre-empt that risk by sacking Fitch from providing a rating. Not a good sign.
11:39 PM EDT, 04/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92) decided to withdraw its credit rating service with Fitch Ratings, according to a Tuesday filing with the Singapore Exchange.
Shares of the beverage company were up over 1% in Wednesday trading.
The ratings provider has withdrawn its long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating, national long-term rating and ratings on the company's senior unsecured Thai Baht debentures.
Meanwhile, the company is slated to maintain its existing rating agreements with Moody's Investor Service and TRIS Rating.
The company is currently rated Baa3 with a stable outlook by Moody's and AA with a stable outlook by TRIS.
Shares of the beverage company were up over 1% in Wednesday trading.
The ratings provider has withdrawn its long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating, national long-term rating and ratings on the company's senior unsecured Thai Baht debentures.
Meanwhile, the company is slated to maintain its existing rating agreements with Moody's Investor Service and TRIS Rating.
The company is currently rated Baa3 with a stable outlook by Moody's and AA with a stable outlook by TRIS.
Perhaps Fitch did not give a rating the company liked?
Thailand in a bad way.
Thailand in a bad way.
Withdrawal of Fitch ratings.
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QQ84SI0U2PBE4HIH/884986_Withdrawal_Fitch_Rating.pdf
https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QQ84SI0U2PBE4HIH/884986_Withdrawal_Fitch_Rating.pdf
Too much negativity priced into the stock, decided to buy more today.
Buy now, June get dividend.... quite good.
The hot weather could actually drive more beer and beverage consumption.
Hopefully Mgmt will announce good news of beer or spirits IPO
Buy now, June get dividend.... quite good.
The hot weather could actually drive more beer and beverage consumption.
Hopefully Mgmt will announce good news of beer or spirits IPO
Stormrider - Next time i just mind my business, u can be the advisor
JurongW ( Date: 21-Apr-2026 16:36) Posted:
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oh..i wasn' t clear, not anyhow hum tam
it' s ex-dividend date,, apologies as I was multi-tasking
Payment date is indeed june as Pat mentioned.
it' s ex-dividend date,, apologies as I was multi-tasking
Payment date is indeed june as Pat mentioned.
Stormrider ( Date: 21-Apr-2026 16:28) Posted:
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Don' t anyhow hum-tam.
From the SGX website:
Announced on 2025-05-09
Announced on 2024-05-13
Announced on 2023-05-11
All the while second week of May.
From the SGX website:
Announced on 2025-05-09
Announced on 2024-05-13
Announced on 2023-05-11
All the while second week of May.
JurongW ( Date: 21-Apr-2026 15:54) Posted:
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Around last week May every year. Yet to be announced on SGX website
Share price making new lows....
Share price making new lows....
Patkeane ( Date: 21-Apr-2026 15:46) Posted:
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any one know this June got divident ? this share everday drop.......
Saw that DBS removed the stock from the " Growth" category in their model portfolio today:
Thai Beverage: Remove from Growth @ SGD0.435
Stock&rsquo s performance has been lackluster since inclusion two months ago, despite having a dividend yield in excess of 5%. Shares exited at a 5% loss (including dividends collected).
Thai Beverage: Remove from Growth @ SGD0.435
Stock&rsquo s performance has been lackluster since inclusion two months ago, despite having a dividend yield in excess of 5%. Shares exited at a 5% loss (including dividends collected).
vicloo ( Date: 30-Mar-2026 20:50) Posted:
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Still have hope?
vivacious ( Date: 19-Feb-2026 20:51) Posted:
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Thai Beverage&rsquo s share price impact from Fitch&rsquo s withdrawal is expected to be limited in the short term, but the negative outlook attached to the rating before withdrawal could weigh on investor sentiment, especially among debt-focused investors. Equity value itself is not directly altered by the withdrawal, but confidence and liquidity may be affected.
📌 What Happened
- Fitch Ratings announced on 16 March 2026 that it will withdraw Thai Beverage&rsquo s ratings by 15 April 2026 for commercial reasons.
- The company&rsquo s Issuer Default Rating was BBB- with a Negative Outlook before withdrawal.
📊 Impact on Share Price
-
Direct Effect:- A rating withdrawal does not mechanically change share price. It only removes one source of external credit assessment.
- Market capitalization remains unaffected by the withdrawal itself.
-
Indirect Effect:- The negative outlook signals Fitch&rsquo s concerns about Thai Bev&rsquo s leverage and financial trajectory.
- Investors may interpret the withdrawal as reduced transparency, which can dampen confidence.
- Bond investors may be more affected than equity holders, but equity sentiment can soften if debt concerns persist.
-
Short-Term Trading:- Share price may see minor volatility as investors digest the news.
- Liquidity could tighten if institutional investors who rely on Fitch ratings reduce exposure.
-
Long-Term Considerations:- If Thai Bev addresses leverage concerns and maintains strong operating performance, the withdrawal&rsquo s impact will fade.
- If leverage remains high, the absence of Fitch&rsquo s monitoring could amplify uncertainty, potentially pressuring the stock.
⚖ ️ Investor Takeaways
-
Equity Investors:- No immediate loss in value, but monitor Thai Bev&rsquo s quarterly results and debt management.
- Market perception matters&mdash negative outlook before withdrawal may linger.
-
Bondholders:- More directly impacted, as Fitch ratings are often used to assess credit risk.
- May need to rely on other agencies or internal analysis.
🚨 Risks & Considerations
- Reduced Transparency: Investors lose one external check on Thai Bev&rsquo s credit health.
- Debt Concerns: Fitch highlighted leverage above 3.5x EBITDA as a risk.
- Market Confidence: Withdrawal for &ldquo commercial reasons&rdquo is neutral in theory, but paired with a negative outlook, it can raise questions.
PiRPiR ( Date: 16-Mar-2026 18:14) Posted:
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05:16 AM EDT, 03/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Fitch Ratings looks to withdraw Thai Beverage's (SGX:Y92) rating in or about April due to commercial reasons, according to a recent release.
The company currently has a BBB- long-term issuer default rating with a negative outlook.
The rating agency last took a rating action on the company earlier in March, in which the rating was affirmed.
The company currently has a BBB- long-term issuer default rating with a negative outlook.
The rating agency last took a rating action on the company earlier in March, in which the rating was affirmed.
Thailand one of the more exposed economies to the US war with a big reliance on oil imports and a big proportion of those imports coming from the gulf. A double whammy with the currency as well.
Scooped a bit at 43.5-44c, lets see.
Sgvale ( Date: 04-Mar-2026 15:31) Posted:
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Buy at 0.43 and keep. Won't lose $$
SDEXXXXD ( Date: 04-Mar-2026 15:24) Posted:
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SUPER JIA LAT
vivacious ( Date: 27-Feb-2026 09:42) Posted:
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