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DBS reprot
M1&rsquo s key shareholders &ndash Keppel T& T, Axiata Group Bhd (Axiata), and SPH &ndash have confirmed that they are in the midst of conducting a strategic review of their respective shareholdings, which may or may not result in a transaction. The three major shareholders &ndash who respectively have 19%, 29%, and 13% stake in M1 for a combined 61% stake &ndash have appointed a financial adviser to assist in the strategic review. While it may be possible that Axiata could look at buying out the stakes of the other smaller partners for full control of M1, all three shareholders may be considering a block sale as well, though identifying a buyer amid the competitive telecom market dynamics in Singapore could be tough.
M1&rsquo s last closing price on Thursday (before the news broke) was S$2.03, not far from our fundamental target price of S$1.97. Based on data of previous buyouts and privatisations for Singapore Exchange-listed companies, we believe the takeover premium could range anywhere between 10-35% over last close, which implies the transaction price, if any, could range between S$2.23 to S$2.74 per share. Given M1&rsquo s current market cap of around S$2 billion, any third-party acquirer would thus require around S$1.3-1.6 billion for the 61% stake held by the three existing major shareholders. Of course, such a move will also lead to a General Offer (GO) for minority shareholders, but if the acquirer intends to keep M1 listed, it may not be incentivised to offer a premium to minority shareholders during a GO.
Given that M1 is not a large proportion of the market caps of SPH and Axiata, the disposal of their stakes in M1 may not have a major impact on their valuations. In contrast, Keppel T& T will see the biggest impact as its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value. We estimate that every 10% upside to M1&rsquo s share price could lift Keppel T& T&rsquo s value (last close of S$1.71/share) by 3.8% or 6.5 Singapore cents per share. We believe a sale of Keppel T& T&rsquo s stake in M1 will also lead to renewed expectations of privatisation by parent Keppel Corp. We believe this fits into Keppel Corp&rsquo s strategy to keep the main subsidiaries privately-owned for ease of management and resource allocation. We estimate Keppel T& T&rsquo s fair value to be around S$1.80-2.23. The lower band assumes 10% holding company discount and no M1 sale, implying 5% upside to current level.
guess shortists already close their position.... now less ppl interest go long or short on M1...
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 20:04) Posted:
15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
22 Mar 2017 - 549,300
23 Mar 2017 - 323,200
ranger109 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 20:21) Posted:
15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
22 Mar 2017 - 549,300
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most of them talking shit only~
whatever they say buy you sell and vice versa.. you sure win~
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 12:43) Posted:
OCBC Investment Research lead analyst Eugene Chua suggest Singtel worth 4.25 two days ago. now Singtel trading at 3.89. does it mean a good buy now. haha
john_ric ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 11:41) Posted:
a very good buy if you can get at 1.75.
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15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
22 Mar 2017 - 549,300
23 Mar 2017 - 323,200
ranger109 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 20:21) Posted:
15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
22 Mar 2017 - 549,300
TMW1986 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 07:59) Posted:
| M1 still abit weak, I don't think it will rise further, the fair value is around 2 dollar or less. |
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OCBC Investment Research lead analyst Eugene Chua suggest Singtel worth 4.25 two days ago. now Singtel trading at 3.89. does it mean a good buy now. haha
john_ric ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 11:41) Posted:
a very good buy if you can get at 1.75.
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TPG predicts SG$300m spend on Singapore mobile network
TPG has made a ' strong start' to its Singaporean mobile network in terms of recruitment and network planning, with the network forecast to cost between SG$200 and SG$300 million, it said during its results presentation.
a very good buy if you can get at 1.75.
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Is it a good ' buy' for M1 amid potential stake sale?
20/03/17, 12:44 pm
SINGAPORE (March 20): M1 on Friday saw its share price surge by 8% before trading was suspended, ahead of an announcement of a strategic review by shareholders Axiata Group, Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation (Keppel T& T), and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH).
Holding a collective 61.1% stake in M1 worth about $1.2 billion, the three shareholders have jointly appointed Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) as financial advisor to assist in the strategic review.
They have stressed that there is no assurance that any transaction will materialise from the strategic review, or that any binding agreement will be reached.
&ldquo We gather from our industry sources that the review involves the potential rationalisation of their shareholdings in M1 that could lead to a complete exit or sell-down. This was triggered by concerns over the competitive landscape arising from a new mobile entrant,&rdquo says RHB in a Monday report.
RHB is keeping its &ldquo neutral&rdquo call on M1 with a target price of $2.05.
RHB says it &ldquo does not rule out&rdquo a potential merger with StarHub as the two smaller incumbents could benefit from joining forces to fend off fourth mobile entrant TPG Telecom.
The strategic review comes amid expectations that M1 could face the largest earnings impact among the incumbents with the impending entry of TPG.
&ldquo Based on M1&rsquo s FY16 results, approximately 90% of its revenue is exposed to the Singapore mobile market, which we define as the sum of mobile service revenue, handset sales and international call services revenue,&rdquo says OCBC Investment Research lead analyst Eugene Chua.
On top of the threat from TPG, Chua notes that Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) Circles.Life recently pushed out an aggressive promotion offering new customers an additional 20GB of mobile data at only $20.
This will &ldquo put even greater pressure on the incumbents to respond with similarly attractive data-focused price plans as well,&rdquo says Chua.
Chua forecasts that M1&rsquo s post-paid average revenue per unit (ARPU) will decline by 16% over the next five years.
&ldquo The weaker earnings outlook also translates to lower dividends over the next five years based on 80% payout ratio,&rdquo he says.
In a report on Friday before the announcement of the strategic review by M1&rsquo s shareholders, Chua had downgraded M1 to &ldquo sell&rdquo from &ldquo hold&rdquo , with a lower fair value of $1.75, from $2.03 previously.
Both RHB and OCBC reiterate that their preferred pick for the Singapore telco sector is Singtel.
RHB has a &ldquo buy&rdquo recommendation on Singtel with a target price of $4.00.
OCBC&rsquo s Chua also has a &ldquo buy&rdquo call on Singtel, with a fair value estimate of $4.25.
&ldquo We remain positive over Singtel&rsquo s long-term outlook given its growing presence in the cyber security segment, and exposure to regional mobile associates,&rdquo says Chua in a separate sector report on Friday.
OCBC is keeping its &ldquo neutral&rdquo stance on the telco sector, with Singtel as its only &ldquo buy&rdquo .
As at 12.25pm, shares of M1 are trading 1 cent higher at $2.20.
Meanwhile, shares of Singtel are trading 1 cent lower at $3.98.
seanpent ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 11:12) Posted:
will be nice if one day Vodafone-Idea also set eyes on the telecom market here .....
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 10:50) Posted:
PETALING JAYA: Axiata Group Bhd, the regional telecommunications firm that is controlled by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, has been the subject of quite a bit of newsflow in the past few days.
News has emerged that Mumbai-based Idea Cellular Ltd, in which Axiata has a 20% stake, would merge with London-based Vodafone Group plc&rsquo s Indian business to create India&rsquo s biggest cellular company while on the home front, a merger between Axiata and Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) could be brewing.
Axiata said in a stock exchange filing in relation to the Idea Cellular-Vodafone merger that the company&rsquo s shareholders&rsquo position &ldquo are best addressed through among others, any industry consolidation or development&rdquo . The company will also analyse all potential impact arising from the proposed merger and its next course of action will be based on the outcome of the analysis.
Kenanga Research said the TM-Axiata merger would create more doubt than confidence whereas analysts preferred Axiata to exit both the India and Singapore markets as they see them as non-performing assets.
The merger between Idea and Vodafone will see Axiata&rsquo s stake being diluted to 10% with the merged entity having over 400 million users and a 35% market share of India&rsquo s 1.2 billion cellular subscribers.
Earlier Axiata&rsquo s head honcho Tan Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim told StarBiz that &ldquo we will stay...its so dynamic and it has been our best performer (before), why leave? We know it is extremely competitive, it will balance out and we want to be with our partners in India.&rdquo
While Axiata has not said what its next move for Idea would be, the company announced last Friday that it and other substantial shareholders of M1 Ltd, Singapore Press Holdings Ltd and Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd, were exploring options including a sale in M1 as Singapore gears up for a new entrant into the wireless market, aimed at introducing more competition to drive down rates and increase service quality. Axiata has 28.32% stake in M1.
Kenanga Research remained positive on a disposal in M1, which it believed could potentially drag the company&rsquo s future earnings momentum while raising additional cash to reduce the high net debt.
AmInvesmtent Bank estimated that a sale of stakes in M1 and Idea could raise RM7bil cash for Axiata, RM1.8bil from M1 and RM5.1bil from Idea. This could &ldquo lead to significant earnings enhancement of 20% to Axiata&rsquo s FY18F earnings.&rdquo
But Affin Hwang Investment Bank believed Axiata could be raising its stake rather than selling in M1, as being a regional player, Axiata needed to be among the top two players in a country. If true, it could end up with 60% stake in M1.
However, it could also use the money from the sale to pare down debts, which stood at RM22.3bil as at end 2016.
On the TM-Axiata merger reported by StarBiz, some experts said the promoters should leave the companies as they are. TM was demerged in 2008 to create Axiata.
&ldquo They will just complicate matters in a highly competitive market as a merger will create a monopoly.
&ldquo This will not be healthy for the market as other players have invested billions of ringgit in their infrastructure and rely on TM for the fibre feed.
&ldquo A merger will give TM clear advantages, which is not in the spirt of competition,&rdquo said an industry observer.
Khazanah has 26.2% and 37.6% stakes in TM and Axiata respectively.
Kenanga Research believed finding synergies would not be too complicated, but remained doubtful that the synergies, besides the usual merger-associated benefits, such as staff, network and marketing rationalisation, could be material enough to create further value to shareholders.
Shares of Axiata gained 11 sen to close at RM5.08 a share, while TM added eight sen to RM6.40 in yesterday.
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will be nice if one day Vodafone-Idea also set eyes on the telecom market here .....
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 10:50) Posted:
PETALING JAYA: Axiata Group Bhd, the regional telecommunications firm that is controlled by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, has been the subject of quite a bit of newsflow in the past few days.
News has emerged that Mumbai-based Idea Cellular Ltd, in which Axiata has a 20% stake, would merge with London-based Vodafone Group plc&rsquo s Indian business to create India&rsquo s biggest cellular company while on the home front, a merger between Axiata and Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) could be brewing.
Axiata said in a stock exchange filing in relation to the Idea Cellular-Vodafone merger that the company&rsquo s shareholders&rsquo position &ldquo are best addressed through among others, any industry consolidation or development&rdquo . The company will also analyse all potential impact arising from the proposed merger and its next course of action will be based on the outcome of the analysis.
Kenanga Research said the TM-Axiata merger would create more doubt than confidence whereas analysts preferred Axiata to exit both the India and Singapore markets as they see them as non-performing assets.
The merger between Idea and Vodafone will see Axiata&rsquo s stake being diluted to 10% with the merged entity having over 400 million users and a 35% market share of India&rsquo s 1.2 billion cellular subscribers.
Earlier Axiata&rsquo s head honcho Tan Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim told StarBiz that &ldquo we will stay...its so dynamic and it has been our best performer (before), why leave? We know it is extremely competitive, it will balance out and we want to be with our partners in India.&rdquo
While Axiata has not said what its next move for Idea would be, the company announced last Friday that it and other substantial shareholders of M1 Ltd, Singapore Press Holdings Ltd and Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd, were exploring options including a sale in M1 as Singapore gears up for a new entrant into the wireless market, aimed at introducing more competition to drive down rates and increase service quality. Axiata has 28.32% stake in M1.
Kenanga Research remained positive on a disposal in M1, which it believed could potentially drag the company&rsquo s future earnings momentum while raising additional cash to reduce the high net debt.
AmInvesmtent Bank estimated that a sale of stakes in M1 and Idea could raise RM7bil cash for Axiata, RM1.8bil from M1 and RM5.1bil from Idea. This could &ldquo lead to significant earnings enhancement of 20% to Axiata&rsquo s FY18F earnings.&rdquo
But Affin Hwang Investment Bank believed Axiata could be raising its stake rather than selling in M1, as being a regional player, Axiata needed to be among the top two players in a country. If true, it could end up with 60% stake in M1.
However, it could also use the money from the sale to pare down debts, which stood at RM22.3bil as at end 2016.
On the TM-Axiata merger reported by StarBiz, some experts said the promoters should leave the companies as they are. TM was demerged in 2008 to create Axiata.
&ldquo They will just complicate matters in a highly competitive market as a merger will create a monopoly.
&ldquo This will not be healthy for the market as other players have invested billions of ringgit in their infrastructure and rely on TM for the fibre feed.
&ldquo A merger will give TM clear advantages, which is not in the spirt of competition,&rdquo said an industry observer.
Khazanah has 26.2% and 37.6% stakes in TM and Axiata respectively.
Kenanga Research believed finding synergies would not be too complicated, but remained doubtful that the synergies, besides the usual merger-associated benefits, such as staff, network and marketing rationalisation, could be material enough to create further value to shareholders.
Shares of Axiata gained 11 sen to close at RM5.08 a share, while TM added eight sen to RM6.40 in yesterday.
seanpent ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 08:41) Posted:
Starhub and M1 can also learn and take heed from the Vodafone-Idea mega telecom merger .....
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KUALA LUMPUR: Shares in Axiata Group Bhd and Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) rose higher on news of a potential merger between the two telecommunication giants.
Axiata&rsquo s shares gained 8 sen to at RM5.05 while TM rose three sen to RM6.35 at noon.
StarBiz reported that a merger between TM and Axiata is on the cards, sources say, as a means to strengthen the former in an increasingly converged market.
Sources say that both companies have already hired advisors, with CIMB Investment Bank advising TM while Goldman Sachs is working for Axiata on the deal.
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 10:50) Posted:
PETALING JAYA: Axiata Group Bhd, the regional telecommunications firm that is controlled by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, has been the subject of quite a bit of newsflow in the past few days.
News has emerged that Mumbai-based Idea Cellular Ltd, in which Axiata has a 20% stake, would merge with London-based Vodafone Group plc&rsquo s Indian business to create India&rsquo s biggest cellular company while on the home front, a merger between Axiata and Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) could be brewing.
Axiata said in a stock exchange filing in relation to the Idea Cellular-Vodafone merger that the company&rsquo s shareholders&rsquo position &ldquo are best addressed through among others, any industry consolidation or development&rdquo . The company will also analyse all potential impact arising from the proposed merger and its next course of action will be based on the outcome of the analysis.
Kenanga Research said the TM-Axiata merger would create more doubt than confidence whereas analysts preferred Axiata to exit both the India and Singapore markets as they see them as non-performing assets.
The merger between Idea and Vodafone will see Axiata&rsquo s stake being diluted to 10% with the merged entity having over 400 million users and a 35% market share of India&rsquo s 1.2 billion cellular subscribers.
Earlier Axiata&rsquo s head honcho Tan Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim told StarBiz that &ldquo we will stay...its so dynamic and it has been our best performer (before), why leave? We know it is extremely competitive, it will balance out and we want to be with our partners in India.&rdquo
While Axiata has not said what its next move for Idea would be, the company announced last Friday that it and other substantial shareholders of M1 Ltd, Singapore Press Holdings Ltd and Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd, were exploring options including a sale in M1 as Singapore gears up for a new entrant into the wireless market, aimed at introducing more competition to drive down rates and increase service quality. Axiata has 28.32% stake in M1.
Kenanga Research remained positive on a disposal in M1, which it believed could potentially drag the company&rsquo s future earnings momentum while raising additional cash to reduce the high net debt.
AmInvesmtent Bank estimated that a sale of stakes in M1 and Idea could raise RM7bil cash for Axiata, RM1.8bil from M1 and RM5.1bil from Idea. This could &ldquo lead to significant earnings enhancement of 20% to Axiata&rsquo s FY18F earnings.&rdquo
But Affin Hwang Investment Bank believed Axiata could be raising its stake rather than selling in M1, as being a regional player, Axiata needed to be among the top two players in a country. If true, it could end up with 60% stake in M1.
However, it could also use the money from the sale to pare down debts, which stood at RM22.3bil as at end 2016.
On the TM-Axiata merger reported by StarBiz, some experts said the promoters should leave the companies as they are. TM was demerged in 2008 to create Axiata.
&ldquo They will just complicate matters in a highly competitive market as a merger will create a monopoly.
&ldquo This will not be healthy for the market as other players have invested billions of ringgit in their infrastructure and rely on TM for the fibre feed.
&ldquo A merger will give TM clear advantages, which is not in the spirt of competition,&rdquo said an industry observer.
Khazanah has 26.2% and 37.6% stakes in TM and Axiata respectively.
Kenanga Research believed finding synergies would not be too complicated, but remained doubtful that the synergies, besides the usual merger-associated benefits, such as staff, network and marketing rationalisation, could be material enough to create further value to shareholders.
Shares of Axiata gained 11 sen to close at RM5.08 a share, while TM added eight sen to RM6.40 in yesterday.
seanpent ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 08:41) Posted:
Starhub and M1 can also learn and take heed from the Vodafone-Idea mega telecom merger .....
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PETALING JAYA:
Axiata Group Bhd, the regional telecommunications firm that is controlled by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, has been the subject of quite a bit of newsflow in the past few days.
News has emerged that Mumbai-based Idea Cellular Ltd, in which Axiata has a 20% stake, would merge with London-based Vodafone Group plc&rsquo s Indian business to create India&rsquo s biggest cellular company while on the home front, a merger between Axiata and
Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) could be brewing.
Axiata said in a stock exchange filing in relation to the Idea Cellular-Vodafone merger that the company&rsquo s shareholders&rsquo position &ldquo are best addressed through among others, any industry consolidation or development&rdquo . The company will also analyse all potential impact arising from the proposed merger and its next course of action will be based on the outcome of the analysis.
Kenanga Research said the TM-Axiata merger would create more doubt than confidence whereas analysts preferred Axiata to exit both the India and Singapore markets as they see them as non-performing assets.
The merger between Idea and Vodafone will see Axiata&rsquo s stake being diluted to 10% with the merged entity having over 400 million users and a 35% market share of India&rsquo s 1.2 billion cellular subscribers.
Earlier Axiata&rsquo s head honcho Tan Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim told
StarBiz that &ldquo we will stay...its so dynamic and it has been our best performer (before), why leave? We know it is extremely competitive, it will balance out and we want to be with our partners in India.&rdquo
While Axiata has not said what its next move for Idea would be, the company announced last Friday that it and other substantial shareholders of M1 Ltd, Singapore Press Holdings Ltd and Keppel Telecommunications & Transportation Ltd, were exploring options including a sale in M1 as Singapore gears up for a new entrant into the wireless market, aimed at introducing more competition to drive down rates and increase service quality. Axiata has 28.32% stake in M1.
Kenanga Research remained positive on a disposal in M1, which it believed could potentially drag the company&rsquo s future earnings momentum while raising additional cash to reduce the high net debt.
AmInvesmtent Bank estimated that a sale of stakes in M1 and Idea could raise RM7bil cash for Axiata, RM1.8bil from M1 and RM5.1bil from Idea. This could &ldquo lead to significant earnings enhancement of 20% to Axiata&rsquo s FY18F earnings.&rdquo
But Affin Hwang Investment Bank believed Axiata could be raising its stake rather than selling in M1, as being a regional player, Axiata needed to be among the top two players in a country. If true, it could end up with 60% stake in M1.
However, it could also use the money from the sale to pare down debts, which stood at RM22.3bil as at end 2016.
On the TM-Axiata merger reported by
StarBiz, some experts said the promoters should leave the companies as they are. TM was demerged in 2008 to create Axiata.
&ldquo They will just complicate matters in a highly competitive market as a merger will create a monopoly.
&ldquo This will not be healthy for the market as other players have invested billions of ringgit in their infrastructure and rely on TM for the fibre feed.
&ldquo A merger will give TM clear advantages, which is not in the spirt of competition,&rdquo said an industry observer.
Khazanah has 26.2% and 37.6% stakes in TM and Axiata respectively.
Kenanga Research believed finding synergies would not be too complicated, but remained doubtful that the synergies, besides the usual merger-associated benefits, such as staff, network and marketing rationalisation, could be material enough to create further value to shareholders.
Shares of Axiata gained 11 sen to close at RM5.08 a share, while TM added eight sen to RM6.40 in yesterday.
seanpent ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 08:41) Posted:
Starhub and M1 can also learn and take heed from the Vodafone-Idea mega telecom merger .....
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 08:21) Posted:
Keppel T& T to benefit the most from M1 stake review
Its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value.
Following the announcement that M1&rsquo s key shareholders &ndash Keppel T& T, Axiata Group Bhd (Axiata), and SPH &ndash are currently conducting a strategic review of their respective shareholdings, DBS Group Research said Keppel T& T has more to gain.
" Given that M1 is not a large proportion of the market caps of SPH and Axiata, the disposal of their stakes in M1 may not have a major impact on their valuations. In contrast, Keppel T& T will see the biggest impact as its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value," explained DBS.
It estimates that every 10% upside to M1&rsquo s share price could lift Keppel T& T&rsquo s value by 3.8%. Further, DBS believes a sale of Keppel T& T&rsquo s stake in M1 will also lead to renewed expectations of privatisation by parent Keppel Corp.
Here' s more from DBS:
Based on data of previous buyouts and privatisations for SGX-listed companies, we believe the takeover premium could range anywhere between 10-35% over last close, which implies the transaction price, if any, could range between S$2.23 to S$2.74 per share.
Given M1&rsquo s current market cap of around S$2b, any third-party acquirer would thus require around S$1.3-1.6b for the 61% stake held by the three existing major shareholders.
Of course, such a move will also lead to a General Offer (GO) for minority shareholders, but if the acquirer intends to keep M1 listed, it may not be incentivised to offer a premium to minority shareholders during a GO.
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Starhub and M1 can also learn and take heed from the Vodafone-Idea mega telecom merger .....
ranger109 ( Date: 23-Mar-2017 08:21) Posted:
Keppel T& T to benefit the most from M1 stake review
Its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value.
Following the announcement that M1&rsquo s key shareholders &ndash Keppel T& T, Axiata Group Bhd (Axiata), and SPH &ndash are currently conducting a strategic review of their respective shareholdings, DBS Group Research said Keppel T& T has more to gain.
" Given that M1 is not a large proportion of the market caps of SPH and Axiata, the disposal of their stakes in M1 may not have a major impact on their valuations. In contrast, Keppel T& T will see the biggest impact as its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value," explained DBS.
It estimates that every 10% upside to M1&rsquo s share price could lift Keppel T& T&rsquo s value by 3.8%. Further, DBS believes a sale of Keppel T& T&rsquo s stake in M1 will also lead to renewed expectations of privatisation by parent Keppel Corp.
Here' s more from DBS:
Based on data of previous buyouts and privatisations for SGX-listed companies, we believe the takeover premium could range anywhere between 10-35% over last close, which implies the transaction price, if any, could range between S$2.23 to S$2.74 per share.
Given M1&rsquo s current market cap of around S$2b, any third-party acquirer would thus require around S$1.3-1.6b for the 61% stake held by the three existing major shareholders.
Of course, such a move will also lead to a General Offer (GO) for minority shareholders, but if the acquirer intends to keep M1 listed, it may not be incentivised to offer a premium to minority shareholders during a GO.
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Keppel T& T to benefit the most from M1 stake review
Its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value.
Following the announcement that M1&rsquo s key shareholders &ndash Keppel T& T, Axiata Group Bhd (Axiata), and SPH &ndash are currently conducting a strategic review of their respective shareholdings, DBS Group Research said Keppel T& T has more to gain.
" Given that M1 is not a large proportion of the market caps of SPH and Axiata, the disposal of their stakes in M1 may not have a major impact on their valuations. In contrast, Keppel T& T will see the biggest impact as its investment in M1 accounts for 38% of its market value," explained DBS.
It estimates that every 10% upside to M1&rsquo s share price could lift Keppel T& T&rsquo s value by 3.8%. Further, DBS believes a sale of Keppel T& T&rsquo s stake in M1 will also lead to renewed expectations of privatisation by parent Keppel Corp.
Here' s more from DBS:
Based on data of previous buyouts and privatisations for SGX-listed companies, we believe the takeover premium could range anywhere between 10-35% over last close, which implies the transaction price, if any, could range between S$2.23 to S$2.74 per share.
Given M1&rsquo s current market cap of around S$2b, any third-party acquirer would thus require around S$1.3-1.6b for the 61% stake held by the three existing major shareholders.
Of course, such a move will also lead to a General Offer (GO) for minority shareholders, but if the acquirer intends to keep M1 listed, it may not be incentivised to offer a premium to minority shareholders during a GO.
Interesting analysis, only said who and who can afford to buy, but never what's the benefit to buy.
ranger109 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 20:39) Posted:
UOB Kay Hian foresees two possible scenarios that could trigger a general offer for M1. The first scenario is the possibility that Axiata Group could acquire more M1 shares from either Keppel T& T or SPH, thus triggering a general offer.
&ldquo Axiata Group is able to finance the acquisition due to a strong cash balance of RM4.4b as of Sep 15, which serves as a war chest. In addition, 66.5%- owned subsidiary XL Axiata plans to sell 2,000-2,500 towers through an open tender to raise up to US$500m. XL Axiata is likely to utilise the proceeds from sale to repay a loan of US$500m from Axiata Group, further boosting Axiata Group&rsquo s cash holdings,&rdquo UOB Kay Hian said.
On the other hand, UOB Kay Hian said another foreign telco or a government-linked company (GLC) could also acquire the two blocks of M1 shares from Keppel T& T and SPH, thus creating a tussle for control of M1.
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👍
ranger109 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 17:09) Posted:
If after M& A will strengthen M1 capability. SingTel shrare price should correct downward.
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 16:55) Posted:
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UOB Kay Hian foresees two possible scenarios that could trigger a general offer for M1. The first scenario is the possibility that Axiata Group could acquire more M1 shares from either Keppel T& T or SPH, thus triggering a general offer.
&ldquo Axiata Group is able to finance the acquisition due to a strong cash balance of RM4.4b as of Sep 15, which serves as a war chest. In addition, 66.5%- owned subsidiary XL Axiata plans to sell 2,000-2,500 towers through an open tender to raise up to US$500m. XL Axiata is likely to utilise the proceeds from sale to repay a loan of US$500m from Axiata Group, further boosting Axiata Group&rsquo s cash holdings,&rdquo UOB Kay Hian said.
On the other hand, UOB Kay Hian said another foreign telco or a government-linked company (GLC) could also acquire the two blocks of M1 shares from Keppel T& T and SPH, thus creating a tussle for control of M1.
15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
22 Mar 2017 - 549,300
TMW1986 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 07:59) Posted:
M1 still abit weak, I don't think it will rise further, the fair value is around 2 dollar or less.
ranger109 ( Date: 21-Mar-2017 20:24) Posted:
Seem 2.15 is a support for this counter unless new information appear.
Short volume before and after the announcement
15 Mar 2017 - 263,300
16 Mar 2017 - 295,200
17 Mar 2017 - 1,457,100
20 Mar 2017 - 2,014,00
21 Mar 2017 - 509,800
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If after M& A will strengthen M1 capability. SingTel shrare price should correct downward.
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 16:55) Posted:
M1 now fast & furious
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 15:39) Posted:
Starhub & M1 ..... resilient .....
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M1 now fast & furious
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 15:39) Posted:
Starhub & M1 ..... resilient .....
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 15:35) Posted:
Looking at price action, M& A still very much alive ..... :)
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Starhub & M1 ..... resilient .....
seanpent ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 15:35) Posted:
Looking at price action, M& A still very much alive ..... :)
ranger109 ( Date: 22-Mar-2017 15:32) Posted:
Last year the Axiata CEO also said the following in the interview:
He said most countries can afford to have three operators so there?s enough competition. In regards to Singapore?s plan to have a fourth wireless carrier, he said that would result in "one too many? players in that market
The plan for next five years is to build Axiata into a ?digital generation" company
He?s looking to expand the number of telecom towers in Asean and South Asia to 26,000 from 16,000 within three years and to eventually IPO the assets
He?s comfortable with Axiata?s debt levels being 2.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Despite management guiding for lower earnings in 2016, he?s confident 2017 will be a different story. Axiata will probably post 2.03 billion ringgit ($496 million) in net income for 2016 and 2.31 billion ringgit in 2017, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg |
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