Super Group   

Super Coffee

good to pick up at 4.00

 

Rebound at key support suggests further recovery

By Philip Teo 

Rebound at key support suggests further recovery

Immediate hurdles crossed. 
Super Group could see more upside ahead after rebounding at its key 1-year uptrend support recently this was followed by a bullish break above the $4.50 and 1-month downtrend resistance on significant volume yesterday. 

Indicator turning bullish. 
The MACD is converging bullishly towards its signal line at the moment, suggesting that the downside momentum has waned.

Next resistance at $5. 
The counter is likely to head towards the $5 next key obstacle (key peak) in the weeks ahead.

Immediate support at $4.50. 
Meanwhile, we advocate a stop-loss exit around $4.30, which is slightly below the newly established resistance-turned-support at $4.50.

...last: $4.47...


 

 

Super Group - Deja-Brew! Time to Buy Again

Date: 20/08/2013

Source	:	Maybank Kim Eng
Stock	:	SuperGroup		Price Target	:	6.10	|	Price Call	:	BUY
				Last Price	:	4.75	|	Upside/Downside	:	+1.35 (28.42%)

Share price gain has more legs. We maintain our positive view on Super. Recent 2Q13 results affirmed our investment thesis that the company will continue to be a major beneficiary of lower commodity prices. While share price has gained 47% YTD, we see further reasons to be optimistic because of (1) good traction in new markets which may become new growth pillars and (2) increasing importance as an ingredients supplier.

Good traction in new markets. While Super?s branded consumer revenue growth of 6% YTD appears to be lagging behind some peers, we believe this is due to revenue mix and market specific reasons (such as rioting in Myanmar earlier this year) rather than a loss of market share. Encouragingly, we see good traction in new markets which may become new growth pillars. For example, Philippines sales grew more than 25% YoY and it has just overtaken Singapore as the fifth largest geographical contributor.

Competition intensifying, but more than one way to make money. We are cognizant of the intensifying competition across ASEAN, but expect this to play out mostly in new product variations rather than price wars. This is also where Super?s increasing prominence as an ingredient supplier allows the company to benefit from the overall market growth even in countries where it does not have a strong brand yet. This quarter, soluble coffee sales almost doubled as the company has started to supply major players in South-East Asia.

A major beneficiary of lower commodity prices. While gross margins have improved from 29% in 3Q11 to 39% last quarter, a part of this is due to in-house manufacturing and economies of scale. As a fully integrated player and direct buyer of commodities, we believe the full potential of margin enhancement from softer commodity prices is still underestimated by the market. In our opinion, gross margins can surpass the heights of 40% achieved in 2010.

Reiterate BUY. We have raised our FY13-FY14 estimates by 11-13% mainly on higher margin assumptions and also tweaked our DCF assumptions (higher risk-free rate). This yields a TP of SGD6.10, implying 28.8x FY14F and upside of 28% from current levels. Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research

 

$6 soon

 

Super Group: On the release of its 2Q13 results, OSK DMG maintain NEUTRAL, lowers TP to $4.58 due to higher WACC. Super Group?s overall revenue rose 23% y-o-y to $138m. Branded consumer (BC) sales gained 10% y-o-y to $92m on double-digit growth in Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand. Food ingredient (FI) surged by 65% to $46m as sales to South-East Asia tripled to $32m, mitigating a 17% dip in contribution from East Asia. 2Q13 gross profit margin widened to 38.8% on lower raw material prices and higher operating efficiency. Coffee, sugar and palm oil input costs per tonne in 2Q13 were estimated at USD2,000, USD530 and USD700 (2Q12: USD1,940, USD620 and USD1,000) respectively. OSK DMG note that 2Q13 gross profit margins at the BC and FI divisions stood at 40-45% and 25-30% respectively. Given the recent increase in interest rates, its WACC -now a higher 4.5% (from 3.7% previously) ? leads to a lower TP of $4.58 (vs $4.88 previously). OSK DMG believe a better debt-equity structure to facilitate a higher dividend payout or earnings accretion from potential M& As may warrant a higher valuation.

 

Superb

 

Singapore Stock Tip: Our short term target for Supergroup is reached at $5

 

Hi Sir

What is the fair price to buy ?....just repeat the announcement only can help to give target price ?....

Thanks

 

Super: 2Q13 earnings spiked 106% y/y to $37.4m, which included a gain of $17.1m from the disposal of the Company?s 35.3% interests in Sun Resources Holdings Pte Ltd, an associated company involving in property development projects in China.

Otherwise, core earnings improved 12% y/y.

Revenue improved 23% to $138.3m as branded consumer sales had a robust y/y growth and recovery from 1Q13?s marginal growth of 1%. 2Q13 posted 10% sales growth to $92.4m y/y compared to 2Q12?s $84.3m.

Higher sales were registered from key Southeast Asian markets of Myanmar, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand.

The increase was further boosted by higher sales to other Southeast Asian markets like Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Further, food ingredient segment achieved 65% growth for 2Q13 to $46m from 2Q12?s $27.8m.

The growth was supported by increased production capacity and continued robust demand for soluble coffee powder and non-dairy creamer from the Asian markets.

Gross profit margin for 2Q13 improved 3 percentage points YoY to 39% due to effective cost management and enhanced operational efficiencies arising from increased production capacity.

Management is optimistic that the Group?s on-going efforts to stay ahead of the competition will generate positive contributions to its operating performance.

The Group?s balance sheet remains healthy with cash and bank balances of $94.9m as at 30 Jun 2013. Counter will continue trading at 1345 hours.

 

Trading halt

 

It is always uptrend

 

 

Today news that NZ dairy products got infection  with baterias, is good news to Super ? Ang Mo will switch to drink Asian ex-China milk products loh... Supper kopi  powders up up away...

 

Ya, what is your LDL level?

 

krisluke      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 22:17) Posted: Yes !! six packets 3 in 1 low fat per day. Kensonic77      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 13:00) Posted: Anybody drink  more than 1  packet of Super 3in1 per day? NB: Health Survey

 

That quite high consumption

What is your LDL reading?

krisluke      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 22:17) Posted: Yes !! six packets 3 in 1 low fat per day. Kensonic77      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 13:00) Posted: Anybody drink  more than 1  packet of Super 3in1 per day? NB: Health Survey

 

Yes !!

six packets 3 in 1 low fat per day.

Kensonic77      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 13:00) Posted: Anybody drink  more than 1  packet of Super 3in1 per day? NB: Health Survey

 

How to compare F& N they have share return $3.8 from their profit sale of a company!  Super don't have & no   jealous one ,   ...Super up up away ...long long..

CSH123      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 12:12) Posted: F& n 5.76vs super 4.76? (diff of 17%?) super man for sooo long??? chinastar      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 13:06) Posted: teh or kopi:

 

Kindly provide your survey .

Thanks in advance !!!

Kensonic77      ( Date: 03-Aug-2013 13:00) Posted: Anybody drink  more than 1  packet of Super 3in1 per day? NB: Health Survey

 

Anybody drink  more than 1  packet of Super 3in1 per day?

NB: Health Survey

 

F& n 5.76vs super 4.76? (diff of 17%?) super man for sooo long???

chinastar      ( Date: 04-Jul-2013 13:06) Posted: teh or kopi:) ysh2006      ( Date: 28-Jun-2013 23:09) Posted: This is super stock, last time I have a similar thinking but the longer one wait , I need to take lift to chase the price $ 2, $3, $ 4 , $ 5 ?...if not can't get it leh..

 

Super Group, Singapore’s largest instant-coffee maker, is seeking its first acquisition in a decade as it battles Nestle SA for a bigger share of the market in Southeast Asia and China.

“We are building our war chest for acquisitions,” Darren Teo, Super’s head of corporate strategy and business development, said in an interview on July 23. “Organically, the company is doing well, but we are looking at ways we can expand faster. We are at the right time of the growth story.”

The seller of the Owl and Super Coffeemix brands wants to add “fast-growing” coffee producers with established labels, Teo said. The Singapore-based company also wants to buy beverage makers to expand its repertoire of non-coffee brands, he said.

Coffee consumption in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines surged by at least 55% from 2008 to 2011, more than 10 times quicker than the world average, according to the International Coffee Organization. A total of US$4.2 billion ($5.3 billion) of food and beverage purchases in Southeast Asia were completed this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The stock climbed 0.4% to $4.77 at 9:35 a.m. in Singapore trading, set for the highest in almost two months. The increase pushed the advance this year to 47%, compared with the 2.8% gain in the Singapore benchmark Straits Times Index.

NESCAFE COMPETITION
Super, whose coffee mix sachets compete with Nestle’s Nescafe, a key product for the world’s biggest foodmaker, is interested in companies with production facilities with ready- made ingredients and a distribution network, said Teo, who makes key strategic decisions at the company on behalf of his father David Teo Kee Bock, the company’s chairman.

Super made its last purchase in 2003 when it bought Owl International Pte, a closely held instant-coffee maker, for about $20 million, said Teo, 30. Along with Owl, the company’s Super Coffeemix brand competes with Nestle in eight Asian countries including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, said Teo, whose family has the biggest stake with about a third of Super.

“Consumers have their own preferences and freedom to choose many products in the markets, and we are confident on our competitiveness in the market,” Brata Hardjosubroto, Nestle Indonesia’s head of public relations, said in an e-mailed response to queries yesterday.

Super may seek an acquisition of a closely held coffee producer in Indonesia, the Philippines or China that’s worth as much as $100 million, said James Koh, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Holdings.


NEW MARKETS
“Super might be keen to acquire brands that would help them expand their market presence in these places where it is not so strong, or in new markets,” he said.

Super had $96.1 million in cash and securities investments as of March 31, according to its statement in May.

Most of the region’s 650 million people will be middle class by 2020, and spending on food and beverages may climb at least 75% from 2000 levels, according to Accenture Plc.

Successful consumer retail deals often require a known brand name to sell products through its distribution channels, said Tan Han Meng, an analyst at RHB Research. That gives Super the “pan-Asian branding with the potential to be a Nestle in Asia,” and expand market share, he said.

Super may struggle to find a suitable company as valuations aren’t cheap, with the average price-earnings ratio of potential targets exceeding 10 times, RHB’s Tan said.

MYANMAR DRINKS
Shares of Super trade at 31.7 times earnings, compared with the 20 times average of its 12 closest peers in Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The company also plans to introduce new products such as cereal and malt drinks in Myanmar, where it said it’s the market leader. This will help push its annual sales growth to as much as 15% over the next five years, Teo said.

For coffee, the focus will still be on Nestle, which Deutsche Bank AG said in a report last year controls half of the global market for the instant beverage.

“When it comes to coffee, you’ll think of Nescafe, but we’re probably the second name that comes to mind” in Asia, Teo said. “We are not afraid of competition.”