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Ascendas REIT: Expecting further upside
- 4QFY14 DPU up 16.0% YoY
- Positive revision of 14.8% achieved
- Aggregate leverage robust at 30.0%
Closing FY14 on positive note
Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) delivered a firm set of 4QFY14 results last evening. NPI grew by 12.2% YoY to S$112.3m, driven mainly by contribution from The Galen, Four Acres Singapore, Nexus@one-north and A-REIT City@Jinqiao. We note that no performance fee was payable for the quarter (versus S$7.0m fees registered in previous year), while a S$4.9m gain was clocked for the divestment of Block 5006 at Techplace II. In addition, A-REIT gained from distribution of income relating to its Ascendas Z-Link property in China. As a result, distributable amount and DPU increased by 23.9% and 16.0% YoY to S$85.3m and 3.55 S cents, respectively. This brings the full-year DPU to 14.24 S cents (+3.6%), largely in line with our projection of 14.13 S cents (consensus: 14.2 S cents).
Portfolio performance remained sturdy
We understand from management that there was a slowdown in leasing activity for the business/science park segment, while performance within the other property segments was generally stable. However, rents have been holding up well. Despite the impending increase in supply of industrial space in 2014, A-REIT expects the demand to remain healthy on the back of a tentative global recovery. As at 31 Mar, portfolio occupancy held steady at 89.6% (3Q: 89.7%). For FY14, positive rental reversion averaging 14.8% was also achieved. Going forward, A-REIT guided that positive reversion in the mid-to-high single digit is still anticipated, given that passing rents are below market rates.
Maintain BUY
A-REIT also announced two new asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) this quarter, with the objective of maximising the plot ratio and improving the marketability of the properties. To date, total cost of committed AEIs amounted to S$106.5m. We also note that the acquisition of Kallang Ave development (~40% space committed) may happen soon as TOP is expected in 2QCY14. We roll our valuation to FY15, while tweaking our assumptions to factor in potentially higher operating costs. Our fair value now increases to S$2.45 from S$2.40 previously. Maintain BUY.
Source: OCBC Research ...last:$2.34...
Post management meeting, Daiwa maintains its HOLD rating (6-month TP $2.23) on the back of the modest leasing progress on some of its recent acquisitions and investments, while downside risk is still present on the uncertainty of Singapore's industrial-property segment. Management expects some positive rental reversions in the overall portfolio in the coming quarters, underpinned by several of its development properties nearly on full occupancy. AREIT's gearing was 30% as at 31 Dec 2013. Management indicated that AREIT has about $1.2b of debt headroom (before 40% gearing level) to fund its asset-enhancement initiatives and acquisitions. It expects the gearing to rise to about 33-34% after funding all of its existing capital commitments.
Ascendas REIT is trading within a range.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/capitaland/why-most-investors-lose-money-in-real-estate-and-property-stocks-in-2013/
Ascendas Real Estate Inv Trt ST: the downside prevails as long as 2.21 is resistance
Trading Central | 2013-12-19 00:05:00
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 2.21 would call for 2.27 and 2.3.
Our pivot point stands at 2.21.
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 2.21 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 2.21 would call for 2.27 and 2.3.
Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the stock is trading under both its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 2.2 and 2.27). Ascendas Real Estate Inv Trt is currently trading near its 52 week l
Rebound at the current level but continue to be range bound.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/ascendas-reit/ascendas-reit-hammer-morning-star/
| marubozu1688 ( Date: 20-Oct-2013 15:50) Posted: |
Ascendas REIT is range bound.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/capitamall-trust/is-it-time-to-invest-in-singapore-reit-to-build-up-passive-i
Singapore REIT is still weak. Same to Ascendas REIT.
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-stocks/capitamall-trust/is-it-a-good-time-to-buy-singapore-reit-now/
Waiting patiently for the correction to over for this Ascendas REIT...
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-reits/singapore-reits-comparison-table-for-dividend-investing-as-passive-income-june-2013/
Macquarie is listing put warrants over CMA and AREIT this morning.
This is the first time Macquarie has listed a warrant over Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT). AREIT is the largest business and industrial trust listed on the SGX, with a portfolio of 101 properties in Singapore and a business park property in China.
Recently on April 15, it announced after market its full year 2013 results, which came in at $305.6mn, a 8.5% year-on-year increase and in line with analysts’ estimates. On the back of these results, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report on the same day stating that AREIT at $2.78 is trading at a Full year 2014E yield of 5.3% and price to book ratio of 1.45x, which appear expensive versus its 10-yr mean of 6.7% and 1.32x. Thus, while it continues to be the dominant player within Singapore’s industrial property sector, MER prefers office SREITs over AREIT and has a ‘Neutral’ view maintained on the stock, with a 12-month target price of $2.60 (Neutral). MER’s target price is 5.5% below AREIT’s closing price on Tuesday at $2.75.
Only AREIT put warrant in the market
Since the report, AREIT has pulled back 4.2%, but is nevertheless still trading at its highest level in almost 6 years, since July 2007. Investors who believe that AREIT will see a further pullback in the short term may consider today’s newly listed put warrant,
It is the only put available over AREIT in the warrant market. This warrant tend to gain in price when AREIT’s share price falls, as puts have an inverse relationship with the underlying share price movements.
CMA back above $2 on strong 1Q13 results
Another property name that recently announced its result earnings was CapitaMalls Asia, the retail property unit of CapitaLand that develops, owns and manages shopping malls in Asia. CMA had posted a “strong first quarter” result of $73.2mn in net profits, which was a 9.6% increase from the same period the previous year. CMA’s CEO attributed its strong results to record growth in key markets and continue to be positive about the long-term retail prospects in these key markets.
Buyers brought CMA’s share price back above the $2 mark on the back of its earnings announcement. The stock had on April 17 fallen below the $2 mark – a level it had hovered around for the most of this year, after crossing it for the first time in two years on January 3. It closed at $2.10 on Tuesday.
Investors holding the view that CMA might backtrack to trade below the $2 mark again may wish to consider this morning’s two new put warrants over CMA.
Source: Macquarie Research - 2 May 2013
This is the first time Macquarie has listed a warrant over Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT). AREIT is the largest business and industrial trust listed on the SGX, with a portfolio of 101 properties in Singapore and a business park property in China.
Recently on April 15, it announced after market its full year 2013 results, which came in at $305.6mn, a 8.5% year-on-year increase and in line with analysts’ estimates. On the back of these results, Macquarie Equities Research (MER) released a research report on the same day stating that AREIT at $2.78 is trading at a Full year 2014E yield of 5.3% and price to book ratio of 1.45x, which appear expensive versus its 10-yr mean of 6.7% and 1.32x. Thus, while it continues to be the dominant player within Singapore’s industrial property sector, MER prefers office SREITs over AREIT and has a ‘Neutral’ view maintained on the stock, with a 12-month target price of $2.60 (Neutral). MER’s target price is 5.5% below AREIT’s closing price on Tuesday at $2.75.
Only AREIT put warrant in the market
Since the report, AREIT has pulled back 4.2%, but is nevertheless still trading at its highest level in almost 6 years, since July 2007. Investors who believe that AREIT will see a further pullback in the short term may consider today’s newly listed put warrant,
It is the only put available over AREIT in the warrant market. This warrant tend to gain in price when AREIT’s share price falls, as puts have an inverse relationship with the underlying share price movements.
CMA back above $2 on strong 1Q13 results
Another property name that recently announced its result earnings was CapitaMalls Asia, the retail property unit of CapitaLand that develops, owns and manages shopping malls in Asia. CMA had posted a “strong first quarter” result of $73.2mn in net profits, which was a 9.6% increase from the same period the previous year. CMA’s CEO attributed its strong results to record growth in key markets and continue to be positive about the long-term retail prospects in these key markets.
Buyers brought CMA’s share price back above the $2 mark on the back of its earnings announcement. The stock had on April 17 fallen below the $2 mark – a level it had hovered around for the most of this year, after crossing it for the first time in two years on January 3. It closed at $2.10 on Tuesday.
Investors holding the view that CMA might backtrack to trade below the $2 mark again may wish to consider this morning’s two new put warrants over CMA.
Source: Macquarie Research - 2 May 2013
4QFY13 results below consensus- - NPI declined 4.3% q/q to $100.1m - 4QFY13 DPU declined 16% q/q to 3.06¢ FY13 DPU increased 1.3% y/y to 13.7¢ - Portfolio occupancy down 0.3ppt q/q to 94.0% - Gearing at 28.4% - Dividend yield 4.8% Weak results driven by higher i) property tax and ii) maintenance and conservancy costs 3 projects unveiled and funding of $408m committed (of which $206.5m yet to be funded) i) Development of DBS Asia Hub Phase II (7,000 sqm to be added to existing building) ii) AEI at Techpoint iii) AEI at 5 Toh Guan Road 21% of revenues is due for renewal and mgmt expects positive reversion with spot prices 9-35% above passing rents mgmt also guided that acquisitions in Singapore will be increasingly challenging and further growth opportunities may come in the form of Built-To-Suit (BTS) and development projects. Mgmt looking for growth opportunities in China’s Tier 1 cities (and cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou), as well as in Malaysia’s Iskandar (however, any acquisition will likely be in 2014). AREIT is currently trading at - 1.5x book value of $1.94/share as of end-March (vs. mean 1.35x) - 4.9% FY14e yield or 3.5ppts over the 10Y bond (vs. mean 4.5ppts) Broker recommendations- CS downgrades to UNDERPERFORM, TP of $2.48 DB downgrades to HOLD, TP of $2.76 Nomura maintains NEUTRAL, TP of $2.47 UOB Kay Hian maintains HOLD, TP of $2.86 CIMB maintains OUTPERFORM, TP of $3.05
... Married Deal: Vol: 100 Value: $254,000 ie $2.54 / share Prev Close: $2.54
Singapore Daily Singapore REITs: Rational Temperance NEUTRAL The stellar returns generated by S-REITs in 2005-2006 were buttressed by similarly outstanding DPU growth rates of 19-43% pa over 2005-2008 and strong growth in rents and capital values in 2005-2007 (in short, fundamentals-driven growth). However, the recent S-REITs 2012 rally was primarily fueled by QE-inflated asset values and ample liquidity, and not so much driven by underlying fundamentals such as strong DPU growth or rental upside, in our view. Unlike the “fundamentals-driven growth” experienced by S-REITs in 2005-2006, we expect the current “QE-inflated growth” to run out of steam once the “artificially compressed” interest rates in the US, and hence Singapore, start normalising sometime next year or early 2015. However, as markets are typically forward-looking, we expect S-REITs prices to rationalise probably in 2H13 or 2014. Reiterate NEUTRAL for overall S-REITs sector.
Look like this should let it pull back till 2.32 before showing interest for vesting.
Just personal view.
Short Ascendasreit.
http://sgxreports.blogspot.sg/2012/10/ascendas-reit_3487.html