CDL HTrust Last:0.775 -

CDL HTrust - Nice breakout

This one is laggard.. I think will be in play after FED cuts on Wednesday.. Should trade around $1.05 at least as it' s NTA is around $1.47

alanchee ( Date: 16-Sep-2024 17:58) Posted:

Think will breach $1 if fed reduce rate by 50 basis pts, matter of time.. Will move even higher as rates are expected to fall further for this abd next year

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/s-reits-expected-rally-potential-rate-cuts

Once FED confirms cut rate on 17 Sept. This CDL Htrust easily $1. Eventually with the strong recovery
in visitors to Singapore and rate cuts, $1.20 next target.

When everything returns to normal as in tourism back to pre-covid and interest rate back to 2-3%, $1.40 next target

MrBear12 ( Date: 09-Sep-2024 14:05) Posted:

That's why it's share price is rising

Visitors to Singapore is improving strongly and once reached pre-covid level (expected within 1 year)
will also cause the rise in asset valuations too..

Goldfinger ( Date: 09-Sep-2024 07:30) Posted:

As rates are cut cut cutting, asset valuations will rise and gearing will fall sharply possibly.

luckyguy3 ( Date: 08-Sep-2024 20:28) Posted:

CDL HTrust gearing 37.7

As rates are cut cut cutting, asset valuations will rise and gearing will fall sharply possibly.

luckyguy3 ( Date: 08-Sep-2024 20:28) Posted:

CDL HTrust gearing 37.7%

ongkk96 ( Date: 08-Sep-2024 19:42) Posted:

Cdl has high gearing rati

CDL HTrust gearing 37.7%

ongkk96 ( Date: 08-Sep-2024 19:42) Posted:

Cdl has high gearing ratio

luckyguy3 ( Date: 07-Sep-2024 13:21) Posted:

July and August 2024 visitors arrival improved over the same period in 2023 and the trend is going to reach pre-covid soon.

&zwnj Jul 23 = 1.42million, Aug 23 = 1.31million

&zwnj Jul 24 = 1.6million, Aug 24 = 1.54million.

&zwnj Looks like tourism is recovering fast. Going back to pre-covid + interest rates cut with CDL Htrust as
one of the top beneficial from the rate cuts due to it' s majority of loans are floating loans.Looking good.

Cdl has high gearing ratio

luckyguy3 ( Date: 07-Sep-2024 13:21) Posted:

July and August 2024 visitors arrival improved over the same period in 2023 and the trend is going to reach pre-covid soon.

&zwnj Jul 23 = 1.42million, Aug 23 = 1.31million

&zwnj Jul 24 = 1.6million, Aug 24 = 1.54million.

&zwnj Looks like tourism is recovering fast. Going back to pre-covid + interest rates cut with CDL Htrust as
one of the top beneficial from the rate cuts due to it' s majority of loans are floating loans.Looking good.

MrBear too.

luckyguy3 ( Date: 02-Sep-2024 10:10) Posted:

Maybank also recommends CDL HT

RHB report: http://sginvestors.io/analysts/research/2024/08/singapore-reits-sub-sector-rhb-securities-research-2024-08-29
The part on CDL Htrust

http://sbr.com.sg/commercial-property/in-focus/which-reits-will-benefit-most-rate-cuts

luckyguy3 ( Date: 22-Aug-2024 13:47) Posted:

Which REITs will benefit most from rate cuts?

Experts expect two 25bps cuts in 2024.

Expected interest rate cuts in September are poised to benefit real estate investment trusts (REITs) because of their close correlation, though experts suggest the impact will be more immediate for those with fewer loans hedged to fixed rates.

&ldquo The protracted rate cuts will have an immediate impact on floating rates for REITs, with a more pronounced effect on those that had more than 20% of their loans left unhedged,&rdquo DBS experts said.

Among S-REITs, DBS identified CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) as the likely top beneficiaries of the rate reduction, alongside Suntec REIT (SUN), OUE Commercial REIT (OUECT), and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT), which have only 50-60% of their loan books hedged to fixed rates.

DBS also noted that S-REITs could see their average financing costs decrease by 30 basis points to 3.6%, down from the current average of 3.9%, assuming the three-month swap rate falls by 1 percentage point.

In terms of sectors, DBS stated that retail has the greatest potential to benefit from the interest rate cuts heading into Q4 2024 to 2025, followed by industrial, hotels, and office, citing their income resilience.

DBS added that growth momentum for retail, office, and warehouse sectors will remain robust in the second half of 2024.

However, DBS cautioned that investors should be careful when dealing with hotels, as demand is expected to soften in 2H24 due to increased price sensitivity among hoteliers, driven by a slower-than-expected recovery in China demand.

Which REITs will benefit most from rate cuts?

Experts expect two 25bps cuts in 2024.

Expected interest rate cuts in September are poised to benefit real estate investment trusts (REITs) because of their close correlation, though experts suggest the impact will be more immediate for those with fewer loans hedged to fixed rates.

&ldquo The protracted rate cuts will have an immediate impact on floating rates for REITs, with a more pronounced effect on those that had more than 20% of their loans left unhedged,&rdquo DBS experts said.

Among S-REITs, DBS identified CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) as the likely top beneficiaries of the rate reduction, alongside Suntec REIT (SUN), OUE Commercial REIT (OUECT), and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT), which have only 50-60% of their loan books hedged to fixed rates.

DBS also noted that S-REITs could see their average financing costs decrease by 30 basis points to 3.6%, down from the current average of 3.9%, assuming the three-month swap rate falls by 1 percentage point.

In terms of sectors, DBS stated that retail has the greatest potential to benefit from the interest rate cuts heading into Q4 2024 to 2025, followed by industrial, hotels, and office, citing their income resilience.

DBS added that growth momentum for retail, office, and warehouse sectors will remain robust in the second half of 2024.

However, DBS cautioned that investors should be careful when dealing with hotels, as demand is expected to soften in 2H24 due to increased price sensitivity among hoteliers, driven by a slower-than-expected recovery in China demand.

More chinese visitors to Singapore.
Is there a correlation with the increase of chinese visitors in Singapore and increase of RMB deposits?

RMB Statistics (mas.gov.sg)

RMB Statistics

This section contains information on the level of RMB deposits in Singapore.

End of Period	RMB Deposits (RMB billion)
2013 Jun*	133
2013 Sep*	149
2013 Dec*	186
2014 Mar*	205
2014 Jun*	224
2014 Sep*	223
2014 Dec*	230
2015 Mar*	196
2015 Jun*	234
2015 Sep	225
2015 Dec	189
2016 Mar	164
2016 Jun	142
2016 Sep	120
2016 Dec	126
2017 Mar	127
2017 Jun	138
2017 Sep	139
2017 Dec	152
2018 Mar	139
2018 Jun	136
2018 Sep	132
2018 Dec	130
2019 Mar	116
2019 Jun	115
2019 Sep	122
2019 Dec	118
2020 Mar	121
2020 Jun	102
2020 Sep	128
2020 Dec	134
2021 Mar	152
2021 Jun	161
2021 Sep	163
2021 Dec	175
2022 Mar	157
2022 Jun	173
2022 Sep	174
2022 Dec	176
2023 Mar	173
2023 Jun	202
2023 Sep	224
2023 Dec	235
2024 Mar *P	242

* Deposit data adjusted in December 2015, to reflect data re-submission by financial institution
* P - Preliminary Data

luckyguy3 ( Date: 15-Aug-2024 17:23) Posted:

Chinese visitor surge drove Singapore July arrivals: STB

Aug 15, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Singapore, Top of the deck

Singapore&rsquo s July visitor arrivals tallied 1.60 million, up 12.9 percent year-on-year. July was the best month volume-wise so far in 2024, with mainland China the main source market, said Singapore Tourism Board (STB).

The latest data took Singapore&rsquo s visitor arrivals for the first seven months this year to 9.78 million, up by 26.9 percent year-on-year. That represented a nearly 88-percent recovery from the equivalent period in the pre-pandemic trading year of 2019, when the city-state recorded 11.13-million visitor arrivals.

July brought 412,940 visitor arrivals from mainland China, up 78.5 percent year-on-year. The second- and third-most significant feeder markets in July were Indonesia, contributing 209,820 visitors, and Australia, providing 105,660.

Of those top-three source markets, tourists from the Chinese mainland had the highest average length of stay, at 3.84 days. The average stay across all international source markets was 3.66 days, showed tourism board data.

China has been the top source for Singapore&rsquo s visitors in the first seven months of this year, as it was during 2019. The January to July visitor aggregate from mainland China was 1.86 million, a nearly 85-percent recovery rate relative the same period in 2019, when Singapore received 2.2 million visits from China.

Singapore is home to a casino duopoly shared between Marina Bay Sands, controlled by United States-based Las Vegas Sands Corp and Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd.

Looks like very high chance FED going to cut interest rates for the next 1-2 years. CDL Htrust current dismay share price may have to do with it' s loans which consists of a larger portion of floating rates compared to fixed rates thus causing the cost of debts to be higher aka 4.2%.
BUT when interest rates reverse direction and start going down it will benefit floating rates more. With the July 2024 visitors to Singapore numbers hitting a new high since Covid, I think CDL Htrust got huge potential from the tailwinds.

Chinese visitor surge drove Singapore July arrivals: STB

Aug 15, 2024 Newsdesk Latest News, Singapore, Top of the deck

Singapore&rsquo s July visitor arrivals tallied 1.60 million, up 12.9 percent year-on-year. July was the best month volume-wise so far in 2024, with mainland China the main source market, said Singapore Tourism Board (STB).

The latest data took Singapore&rsquo s visitor arrivals for the first seven months this year to 9.78 million, up by 26.9 percent year-on-year. That represented a nearly 88-percent recovery from the equivalent period in the pre-pandemic trading year of 2019, when the city-state recorded 11.13-million visitor arrivals.

July brought 412,940 visitor arrivals from mainland China, up 78.5 percent year-on-year. The second- and third-most significant feeder markets in July were Indonesia, contributing 209,820 visitors, and Australia, providing 105,660.

Of those top-three source markets, tourists from the Chinese mainland had the highest average length of stay, at 3.84 days. The average stay across all international source markets was 3.66 days, showed tourism board data.

China has been the top source for Singapore&rsquo s visitors in the first seven months of this year, as it was during 2019. The January to July visitor aggregate from mainland China was 1.86 million, a nearly 85-percent recovery rate relative the same period in 2019, when Singapore received 2.2 million visits from China.

Singapore is home to a casino duopoly shared between Marina Bay Sands, controlled by United States-based Las Vegas Sands Corp and Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd.

At 83, Kwek Leng Beng confident of seizing opportunities, as CDL posts 32% rise in H1 profit

Special interim ordinary dividend halved to S$0.02 per share, net gearing climbs to 69%

Sherman Kwek plans to bring down CDL' s gearing to the high-50s by end-2025, from 69 per cent as at Jun 30, 2024. PHOTO: BT FILE

CITY Developments Ltd&rsquo s (CDL) executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng says he is confident of seizing opportunities and making acquisitions notwithstanding high interest rates and global uncertainties.

At a briefing after CDL posted a 32 per cent year-on-year rise in first-half net profit to S$87.8 million, the 83-year old said: &ldquo I seize the opportunity when everybody gets frightened, and I will zero in. You have to have the courage, have the instinct, and you must be a doer. It&rsquo s easier said than done, but I&rsquo ve done it for many years. Today I&rsquo m confident I can do it again and again.&rdquo

&ldquo I&rsquo m not afraid of the interest rate being high, because I believe it&rsquo s coming down. The world cannot sustain such high interest rates for a long time.&rdquo

The group announced it made S$1.1 billion of acquisitions and investments in H1 2024. The figure excludes the purchase of Delfi Orchard via a collective sale, which has yet to be completed. Also not counted in the H1 figure is the master developer site in Jurong Lake District CDL has a 25 per cent stake in a consortium that has submitted two bids at a dual-envelope, concept-and-price state tender that closed on Mar 26.

For the full year of 2023, CDL made S$2.4 billion of acquisitions and investments and S$632.5 million of divestments (including freehold residential land in Shirokane, Tokyo).

As for divestments, Kwek&rsquo s son and the group&rsquo s chief executive officer, Sherman Kwek, has revised downwards his earlier S$1 billion target for the whole of this year, to about S$400 million to S$500 million. This is because several big divestments underway, both in Singapore and overseas, are requiring more time to negotiate.

Year to date, CDL has managed to hit S$172 million in divestments, including the sale of strata units at Citilink Warehouse Complex, Cititech Industrial Building and Fortune Centre.

&ldquo We have already slowed down the pace of investments. I want to see the divestments kick into higher gear before we start to really deploy capital,&rdquo said the younger Kwek.

The group&rsquo s net gearing (including fair value on investment properties) climbed to 69 per cent as at Jun 30, 2024, from 61 per cent as at Dec 31, 2023. &ldquo If all things go smoothly&rdquo , Sherman Kwek plans to bring the figure down to the high-50s by end-2025, though this will also depend on whether the group makes any sizeable acquisitions along the way.

CDL has declared a special interim ordinary dividend of S$0.02 per share, half the S$0.04 payout for H1 FY2023. The cut is &ldquo out of prudence&rdquo , said Sherman Kwek. &ldquo We just want to see how things pan out.&rdquo

Since 2018, CDL has worked towards maintaining a one-third dividend payout ratio every year. &ldquo That&rsquo s not dependent on the divestments, but obviously with any outsized divestments, we&rsquo ll be happy to share with our shareholders&rdquo .

As part of its divestment strategy, CDL is looking at ways to do bulk disposals of some of its legacy UK residential sites for which it has either been unable to obtain planning approval or where sales of units in projects have been slow. These are located in the Greater London area.

&ldquo For some of these sites, we&rsquo ve already appointed agents, and offers are coming,&rdquo said Sherman Kwek.

He is also looking to accelerate the group&rsquo s fund management business, for instance, by seeding its UK commercial properties into either a private or listed vehicle, when interest rates start to ease and capital market conditions improve.

The group&rsquo s high gearing ratio has also caused it to pause its share buybacks. Responding to a query at the briefing, Sherman Kwek said: &ldquo We&rsquo ve never considered delisting CDL, and probably would have no intention of doing so.&rdquo

CDL&rsquo s revenue fell 42.2 per cent to S$1.6 billion in H1 FY2024 from S$2.7 billion in H1 FY2023 on weaker contributions from the property development segment. In the first half of the previous year, revenue was boosted by full recognition of S$1 billion for the executive condominium project Piermont Grand, which obtained its temporary occupation permit in January 2023.

The increase in net profit was supported by divestment gains as part of the company&rsquo s capital recycling efforts.

Earnings per share for the half-year period was S$0.092, an increase from S$0.066 in H1 FY2023.

Two out of three of the group&rsquo s segments recorded an increase in H1 revenue. Revenue for the investment properties and hotel operations segments rose 21.3 per cent and 10.8 per cent, respectively.

The increase in revenue for the investment properties segment was mainly due to acquisitions in 2023, such as St Katharine Docks and living-sector assets across markets such as the UK, Japan and Australia.

CDL said that it was confident in the resilience of its Singapore property development segment, with two residential projects planned for launch later this year.

Heavyweight office tenants for Union Square project

One will be the 348-unit Norwood Grand near the Woodlands South MRT station. The other is the 366-unit Union Square Residences at the former Central Mall and Central Square sites at Havelock Road. This project is part of a mixed-use redevelopment named Union Square, which comprises offices, residences, retail and a sizeable co-living component with a hotel licence. &ldquo We&rsquo ve been able to secure some heavyweight office tenants in advance,&rdquo said Sherman Kwek.

In H1 FY2024, the group continued its recovery in the hospitality sector. Its hotel revenue per available room grew 3 per cent on the year to S$156 from S$151.50. This was supported by the acquisition of Sofitel Brisbane Central hotel in December 2023.

In May 2024, the group acquired the 268-room Hilton Paris Opera. &ldquo This iconic, freehold hotel has seen strong demand with notable high occupancy and average room rate, especially during the Paris 2024 Olympics,&rdquo CDL said.

Commenting on CDL&rsquo s H1 performance, Sherman Kwek added: &ldquo The real estate sector faced considerable headwinds from macroeconomic conditions and higher financing costs, impacting the group&rsquo s financial performance.&rdquo

&ldquo The potential for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve will bring much relief and further strengthen our capital position,&rdquo he added.

ya.. now the price is a steal liao as FED is cutting rate and visitors hit high, going to reach pre-covid by end of the year

MrBear12 ( Date: 15-Aug-2024 07:26) Posted:

86 cents looks a good buy.

Yield is almost 6 percent.

MrBear12 ( Date: 03-May-2024 06:06) Posted:

I'd say, buy if under a dollar.

But be prepared to hold long term. 5 to 10 years at least.

Yield should be above 5 percent

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CDL HTrust - Nice breakout

Which REITs will benefit most from rate cuts?

Which REITs will benefit most from rate cuts?

RMB Statistics

Chinese visitor surge drove Singapore July arrivals: STB

Chinese visitor surge drove Singapore July arrivals: STB