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Sembcorp Drill Baby Drill

i wrote DRILL BABY DRILL SO LOUD. why you sold . apa ini

Battle123      ( Date: 21-Feb-2025 16:20) Posted: oh my, i sold too early morn today

 

oh my, i sold too early morn today 

 

 

Natural Gas Prices Surge As Arctic Blast Fuels Demand

On the supply side, U.S. dry gas production clocked in at 106.1 Bcf/d, slightly higher from last year but still vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather. 

U.S.  natural gas futures  surged to $4.25/MMBtu in Wednesday' s session as Arctic cold boosts heating demand while potential freeze-offs threaten supply. An incoming Arctic blast is driving a surge in heating demand and also fueling concerns over potential production freeze-offs. According to Maxar' s latest forecast models, colder-than-expected temperatures are expected across the central and eastern U.S. through early March. Natural gas demand has been surging, with consumption currently at 122.9 Bcf/d, good for a 21% Y/Y increase.



On the supply side, U.S. dry gas production clocked in at 106.1 Bcf/d, slightly higher from last year but still vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather. Storage remains tight, with the latest EIA report showing a 100 Bcf draw for the week ending February 7, higher than the expected draw of 91 Bcf. U.S. gas stocks remain 2.8% below the five-year seasonal average, adding to market tightness. Bullish traders expect gas prices to test the $4.442 resistance level, while any dip below the $4.020 support could shift momentum to the downside. Further upside pressure remains in play in gas markets unless production remains stable and LNG exports ease.

Meanwhile, European  natural gas futuresremain volatile, with prices hovering around â &sbquo ¬ 49 per megawatt-hour, as traders assess the urgent need to rebuild storage ahead of winter. Last week, Germany, France and Italy came up with a proposal to ease EU gas storage requirements in a bid to normalize the market. Under the current European Commission regulation mandates, all EU nations are required to refill their storage caverns to 90% capacity by November, with interim targets set for February, May, July, and September. EU gas storage is currently under 45% full, making it difficult to meet the requirement of 90% by November 1. That' s well below last year' s 67% mark at a corresponding point and the 10-year average of 51% for the same period. The continent' s seasonal draw has been bigger than in the previous two winters due to colder weather, lower wind power generation due to low wind speeds and the termination of Russian gas imports via Ukraine. 

 

There is spike in natural gas price 

COMMODITY PLAY!!!!

 

Ya

ruanlai      ( Date: 12-Feb-2025 11:39) Posted: disappointed result ahead, avoid from now. heading back below $5 soon before results. dyodd

 

disappointed result ahead, avoid from now.

heading back below $5 soon before results.

dyodd

 

BOUGHT TO YOU BY JUSTIN BIEBER

Baby Baby for baby drill baby   

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFjyg2UzLRm/?igsh=MXVzamZxdjQ2ZW5ycQ==

 

It looks like this is an analysis of SCI' s (Sembcorp Industries) business and their strategy for sustainable solutions in the context of the ongoing energy transition. The key takeaway is that SCI is adjusting its approach, possibly missing its sustainable profit targets for FY25 due to the continued strong performance of its gas sales and the demand-supply imbalance in renewables, especially in regions like China. This change is not entirely unexpected, and it seems that the company' s emphasis will shift more towards capital allocation and energy transition priorities, with a continued focus on gas sales for earnings visibility.

The main points include:

1. SCI may miss its target of 70% of net profit from Sustainable Solutions in FY25 and will no longer use that metric for FY28.
2. The shift comes due to the continued strength of gas sales, which are benefiting from high power prices and curtailment of renewable power.
3. SCI&rsquo s renewable capacity target for FY28 remains at 25GW, with an emissions intensity target of 0.15 tCO2e/MWh, but it will no longer tie financial targets to the profit mix.
4. The company is still pursuing energy transition goals but recognizes that it will be a gradual process, dependent on both policy and market conditions.

The analysis suggests maintaining a BUY recommendation, largely because gas sales are expected to provide reliable earnings in the near term, even as renewable energy growth may take longer than expected.

Upside:

1. Stronger-than-expected order wins: If SCI secures more contracts or orders than anticipated, particularly in key sectors like energy, water, and urban development, it could boost revenue and market confidence, leading to higher earnings.
2. Improved margins: If SCI successfully controls costs and leverages economies of scale, this could improve profit margins, even with the pressure of rising raw material or labor costs in the broader market.
3. Higher dividend payouts: If earnings or cash flow outlook improves, SCI may increase its dividend payout to shareholders. This would be seen positively by investors and could improve stock sentiment.

Downside:

1. Sharp reduction in energy prices: A significant drop in energy prices&mdash especially natural gas or electricity prices&mdash would likely affect SCI&rsquo s profitability, especially from its gas sales, which are a key revenue driver at the moment.
2. Slower contract wins and lower order book: If SCI struggles to secure new contracts, it could see a weaker order book, which would impact future growth and earnings visibility. This would signal slower expansion in its key sectors.
3. Unexpected margin pressure: Rising raw material and labor costs could squeeze margins if SCI is unable to pass these higher costs onto customers or find ways to mitigate them through cost efficiencies.
4. Execution missteps leading to delays or contract terminations: Project execution is critical for any infrastructure and energy company. If there are delays, cost overruns, or even contract terminations due to mismanagement or external factors, this could damage SCI&rsquo s reputation and financial performance.

 

 

COME ON BABY DRILLLLLLLLLL

 

Market Reaction: Likely Mixed, but Tilting Positive in the Short Term

The market&rsquo s response will depend on how investors prioritize profitability vs. ESG commitments. Here&rsquo s how different groups might react:

1. Traditional Investors (Short-Term Focus) &ndash Likely Positive ✅

• Since profits from Sembcorp&rsquo s gas business are outpacing renewables, investors focused on earnings and cash flow will likely see this as a positive sign.
• If Sembcorp&rsquo s stock has underperformed due to ESG pressures, investors may reassess its valuation and buy in, seeing stronger profitability.
• The overall market trend of ESG fund outflows suggests that investors are favoring traditional energy over renewables, further supporting a bullish reaction.

2. ESG-Focused Investors &ndash Negative ❌

• Investors committed to sustainability might lose confidence in Sembcorp, potentially leading to a sell-off from ESG funds.
• This could increase volatility if large institutional investors who favor ESG (e.g., pension funds, sovereign wealth funds) start reducing their holdings.
• If Sembcorp is seen as " greenwashing" (making sustainability claims but prioritizing fossil fuels), it could lead to long-term reputational risks.

3. Analysts & Institutional Investors &ndash Wait-and-See Approach ⚖ ️

• Analysts will likely scrutinize Sembcorp&rsquo s future plans&mdash if the company reaffirms its commitment to renewables while leveraging gas for financial stability, they may stay neutral or slightly positive.
• If Sembcorp signals a longer-term shift away from renewables, expect downgrades from ESG-focused analysts.

Stock Price Expectation 📈 📉

• Short-Term: Likely neutral to slightly positive, as investors react to strong gas profits and ESG outflows.
• Long-Term: If Sembcorp fails to pivot back to renewables, it may face sell-offs from ESG funds and long-term growth concerns.

Key Market Risks:

1. Government & Regulatory Backlash: If policymakers push stricter ESG regulations, fossil-fuel-dependent profits could face pressure.
2. Reputation Risk: A growing anti-ESG backlash might hurt long-term investor confidence.
3. Energy Transition Speed: If renewables become more profitable sooner than expected, Sembcorp may fall behind competitors.

Final Take

The market will likely reward profitability in the short term, but Sembcorp must carefully balance its long-term energy transition to avoid reputational and regulatory risks.

 

Here are the key details extracted from the document:

1. 
   
   Sembcorp&rsquo s Missed Sustainability Target
   • The article confirms that Sembcorp Industries will miss its sustainability profit target, which was aimed at increasing its renewable energy capacity.
   • Despite its commitment to sustainability, profits from its gas business have outpaced its renewable segment over the past two years.
2. 
   
   Investor Behavior: ESG Funds Outflows
   • The document highlights record outflows from ESG funds, suggesting that investors are pulling money out of sustainability-focused investments.
   • This may reflect disillusionment with ESG performance or a shift in market conditions favoring traditional energy investments.
3. 
   
   Financial Performance: Gas vs. Renewables
   • A chart in the document shows Sembcorp&rsquo s net profit per unit of power capacity, comparing gas and renewables from 2021 to 2025.
   • Gas profits have increased significantly, while renewables have struggled to match this performance.
   • This suggests that Sembcorp&rsquo s fossil fuel investments are more financially lucrative in the short term, despite its sustainability goals.

Interpretation:

• The document implies that Sembcorp may be prioritizing financial performance over aggressive renewable expansion.
• The phrase " Can missing a sustainability target be a good thing?" suggests that Sembcorp might frame this as a strategic or necessary delay rather than a failure.
• The trend of investors pulling out of ESG funds might indicate broader skepticism about green investments, which could be influencing Sembcorp&rsquo s direction.

 

Normally, companies announce whether they have missed or hit their profit guidance. However, for Sembcorp, it is quite unusual. They have tactically explained that they missed a KPI they set in 2021 and have subtly linked this with Donald Trump' s policies, aligning with his " old-school" mentality. As we know, Sembcorp excels in the gas sector, which ties in with Trump' s " drill, baby, drill" philosophy. This could also be seen as a response to the challenges of hitting Biden' s stricter environmental initiatives, which are harder to meet

behonest      ( Date: 09-Feb-2025 17:56) Posted: Here&rsquo s how Trump' s " Drill, Baby, Drill" policy could potentially benefit Sembcorp Industries, the global energy, water, and urban development company: Increased Energy Production: The " Drill, Baby, Drill" policy could lead to a surge in oil and gas production in certain regions, especially the U.S. If this translates into more energy supply or lower costs, Sembcorp could benefit as an energy company, either through cheaper raw materials or lower operational costs. Lower Fuel Costs for Power Generation: Sembcorp has a significant presence in the power generation sector, including natural gas. If oil and gas become cheaper or more plentiful, the cost of fuel for power plants could decrease, improving the profitability of Sembcorp&rsquo s energy generation operations. Infrastructure Investment: The push to develop more energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, storage, refineries) could create opportunities for Sembcorp to expand its business, especially in the areas of industrial infrastructure and energy management. Global Impact on Energy Prices: While primarily focused on U.S. oil, an increase in global oil and gas supply could have far-reaching effects on global energy prices. Sembcorp, with its international footprint, could see benefits if energy prices stabilize or become more competitive in the markets it serves. Strategic Partnerships: If the policy encourages more private-sector investment in energy infrastructure, Sembcorp could explore new partnerships or projects related to the development of energy solutions, particularly in renewable energy or energy efficiency initiatives. So, while Trump' s " Drill, Baby, Drill" focus on oil and gas doesn' t directly align with Sembcorp&rsquo s primary sectors, it could offer some strategic advantages through energy supply, cost reductions, and infrastructure opportunities. Does that help explain how Sembcorp might benefit?

 

Here&rsquo s how Trump' s " Drill, Baby, Drill" policy could potentially benefit Sembcorp Industries, the global energy, water, and urban development company:

1. 
   
   Increased Energy Production: The " Drill, Baby, Drill" policy could lead to a surge in oil and gas production in certain regions, especially the U.S. If this translates into more energy supply or lower costs, Sembcorp could benefit as an energy company, either through cheaper raw materials or lower operational costs.
2. 
   
   Lower Fuel Costs for Power Generation: Sembcorp has a significant presence in the power generation sector, including natural gas. If oil and gas become cheaper or more plentiful, the cost of fuel for power plants could decrease, improving the profitability of Sembcorp&rsquo s energy generation operations.
3. 
   
   Infrastructure Investment: The push to develop more energy infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, storage, refineries) could create opportunities for Sembcorp to expand its business, especially in the areas of industrial infrastructure and energy management.
4. 
   
   Global Impact on Energy Prices: While primarily focused on U.S. oil, an increase in global oil and gas supply could have far-reaching effects on global energy prices. Sembcorp, with its international footprint, could see benefits if energy prices stabilize or become more competitive in the markets it serves.
5. 
   
   Strategic Partnerships: If the policy encourages more private-sector investment in energy infrastructure, Sembcorp could explore new partnerships or projects related to the development of energy solutions, particularly in renewable energy or energy efficiency initiatives.

So, while Trump' s " Drill, Baby, Drill" focus on oil and gas doesn' t directly align with Sembcorp&rsquo s primary sectors, it could offer some strategic advantages through energy supply, cost reductions, and infrastructure opportunities.

Does that help explain how Sembcorp might benefit?