UOB
Last:38.16
+0.1
UOB
Post Reply
2301-2320 of 2610
I like this stock. Owned by good Hokkien businessmen.
Honest with great integrity.
Compare to the other 2 banks, UOB really has a great fall.
I am queuing to catch at below $18
spore1 ( Date: 10-Jun-2016 22:16) Posted:
Uob seems rather weak. It may cont to trend lower to test 18.00 soon.
http:// spore share . blog spot .sg/2016/06/uob.html
|
|
Uob seems rather weak. It may cont to trend lower to test 18.00 soon.
http:// spore share . blog spot .sg/2016/06/uob.html
Why uob drops a lot today? Dbs still up, any bad news for uob?
Expect strong opening for UOB, target 19.30
Botak growing more hair at 87 ....
verysteady.
19 coming.
2020
Big drop today. Hope it can stay above $18
Results Update
UOB&rsquo s 1QFY16 results were in line with our expectations, with the bank reporting a net profit of SGD766mn. Total income was SGD1,969mn, up 0.7% yoy (SGD1,956mn in 1QFY15), though down 5.4% qoq (SGD2,081mn in 4QFY15) as lower non-interest income weighed on the bank&rsquo s performance in 1QFY16. We maintain our HOLD recommendation, with our target price unchanged at SGD17.37.
Expect flattish NIMs going ahead. UOB&rsquo s NIM was down 1bps in 1QFY16 to reach 1.78% (versus 1.79% in 4QF15), as the increase in average rate earned on its assets (up 9bps qoq) was offset by a similar increase in its cost of funds (up 8bps qoq). While the recent surprise shift by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to a neutral policy stance of zero percent appreciation could have positive implications for Singapore&rsquo s domestic interest rates (SIBOR/SOR), SIBOR/SOR has been weakening in recent weeks instead, which could cap NIMs in the near term. We expect any potential improvement to come from a more efficient funding mix as the bank copes with the slower pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Weighed down by non-interest income. Non-interest income was disappointing in 1QFY16 as UOB saw its fee and commission income fell 4.5% yoy (9.8% qoq) to reach SGD433mn in 1QFY16. Contributions from wealth management was hit the hardest, with income falling from SGD110mn in 1QFY15 to SGD81mn this quarter, a hefty 26.1% decline. While we expect non-interest income to rebound in the next quarter on the back of better market sentiments compared to 1QFY16, we believe overall non-interest income contribution for 2016 would likely be weak as market conditions remain volatile.
Maintain hold with TP unchanged as we stay cautious on UOB&rsquo s near-term performance. While UOB remains a defensive play among its local peers with its lower exposure to both China and the commodities sector (as of last year), we believe potential upside may be limited due to the weaker loan growth and expected flattish NIMs in 2016.
Key downside risks include deterioration in asset quality, sustained low interest rate environment and worse than expected economic data.
Over n over again, analysts have erred on the negative side abt the bks' results during downturns. This is another one. NPAT ahead of street by 2%, concerns abt loan growth, etc not borne out. Weakness from non-interest income probably not factored in. My take has been, n will continue to be, that do analysts really know, n that all the doom n gloom factored in research rpts will not be accurate yet again.
The selling resume again.
| United Overseas Bank | PDF |
| Asset quality fine, for now |
UOB SP / UOBH.SI | HOLD - Maintained | S$18.88 tp:S$18.74▼
Mkt.Cap:US$22,485.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$38.29m | Free Float:80.00%
Banks
Author(s):Kenneth NG, CFA +65 6210 8610, Jessalynn CHEN |
| |
■ 1Q16 net profit of S$766m in line at 27% of our FY16 forecast and consensus.
■ NII in line, but topline and PPOP dragged by lower WM and loan-related fees.
■ NIM fell 1bp qoq to 1.78% but due to strong deposit growth (+6%) vs. loans (+1%).
■ Asset quality better than expected, with NPL ratio stable at 1.4%. S$30m of SPs recognised for commodity-related NPLs, offset by S$23m write-back of GPs.
■ Maintain Hold, with a lower GGM-based target price of S$18.74 (0.98x CY16 P/BV) We tweak our EPS on lower fees and deferment of provisions to FY17-18.
|
|
|
Lower provisions offset by lower fee income and associate losses
1Q16 net profit of S$766m was smack in between ours (S$765m) and consensus (S$767m). NII (-0.2% qoq) was in line, but topline (-5% qoq) was below on lower fees (-10% qoq) as loan-related and wealth management fees dried up. The key positive surprise was lower provisions of S$117m (-39% qoq) as UOB wrote back S$23m of GPs on its debt portfolio. This was, however, doused by $30m MTM losses on a legacy investment in an ASEAN-focused fund, bringing net profit in line with our estimate.
Loans +1% qoq, deposits +6% qoq, LDR -4% pts
Lacklustre loan growth (+1% qoq) was no surprise, with mortgages and building & construction driving the increase. Deposits rose faster at 6% qoq (mainly S$ and US$), due to a temporary blip in fund flows into escrow accounts, while fixed deposits also rose. LDR fell to 80.7% (4Q: 84.7%) as a result. UOB controlled wholesale lending in 1Q, but will look to grow its book by improving utilisation of credit lines when it is more comfortable with the environment. This should improve loan-related fees as well.
NIM -1bp qoq on lower LDRs, though loan spreads improved
NIM fell 1bp qoq to 1.78%, largely due to the lower LDR. Customer loan spreads actually improved 2bp qoq, even with expensive fixed deposit collection which brought CASA ratio down to 42.8% (4Q: 44.6%). Management guided for flat NIMs in FY16, with headwinds from: 1) falling SOR (c.25% of S$ loans), 2) scaling back of higher-margin commercial banking loans, and 3) limited rate hikes by the Fed.
Asset quality surprises on upside but likely to be transitory
NPL ratio was stable at 1.4%, while coverage ratio rose to 133% (4Q: 131%). New NPL formation was c.S$300m, which was almost equally netted off by restructuring and write-offs to keep NPLs at S$2.8bn. New NPLs were mainly from commodity exposures in Canada and Australia relating to the mining industry, and UOB also recognised S$31m of SPs for the customer. Guidance was for 32bp of provisions to be enough but we take a more cautious view and expect provisions to increase to 42-50bp in FY16-17.
Maintain Hold
We keep our Hold call with a lower GGM-based target price of S$18.74 (0.98x CY16 P/BV) as we tweak our EPS to factor in lower fees and associates, and as we defer loan loss provisions to FY17-18. While stable asset quality in 1Q lent some comfort, we think it is still early in the credit cycle and deterioration will start to show up. Little NIM upside and lacklustre loan and fee income growth make it difficult for us to take a positive view.
Previous [ United Overseas Bank ] reports...
16/2/16 Co.Note The credit cycle starts (HOLD, S$17.85 tp:S$19.31▼ )
30/10/15 Co.Note Plenty of positives but seemingly one-off (HOLD▲ , S$20.04 tp:S$20.00▲ )
2/9/15 Co.Flash Growth engine limited by size (REDUCE, S$19.20 tp:S$18.23) |
28 Apr 2016
UOB | HOLD
SOFT OUTLOOK AHEAD
- 1Q net earnings of S$766m
- Lower Non-interest Income
- Cut to Hold
UOB posted 1Q16 net earnings of S$766m this morning, in line with market expectations. Net Interest Margin (NIM) came off QoQ from 1.79% in 4Q15 to 1.78% in 1Q16. NPL ratio was stable QoQ at 1.4%. Its exposures to China and Commodity remained fairly stable QoQ. While oil price and regional equity markets have rebounded from recent lows, headwinds remain, including a lackluster domestic real estate market, which could impact certain segment of its operations. NIM is likely to stay flat. Since our last report, UOB has done well and gained some 6%. We have cut our earnings projections for FY16 and FY17 and using the same valuation peg, our fair value estimate drops marginally from S$20.15 to S$20.05. We are downgrading UOB to a HOLD.
(Please see attached file: UOB-160428-OIR.pdf)
Carmen Lee
+65 6531 9802
[email protected]
www.ocbcresearch.com
It is wise to keep it at least till to XD or sell it at 19.7-19.8? Any suggestions?
Only for chartist. Not always correct prediction.
john_ric ( Date: 30-Mar-2016 17:05) Posted:
solid xia. > $19..... where got downtrend xia.
|
|
Yes, great, thanks for prediction. What is target price in your opinion?
As I predicted, it continue to rise and rise.
investshare ( Date: 18-Mar-2016 10:07) Posted:
Yes. As I predicted, it continue to rise.
john_ric ( Date: 17-Mar-2016 19:51) Posted:
|
|
|
did muddy get its karma later ?
john_ric ( Date: 31-Mar-2016 15:48) Posted:
moody, moody not always correct one. like muddy, muddy.
do your own research.
|
|
moody, moody not always correct one. like muddy, muddy.
do your own research.
