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Technical Chart Analysis
Chart Pattern & Trend:
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Strong rally from S$1.00 (March 2025) to peak around S$1.89 (early September) -
Sharp pullback to current level of S$1.62 - representing a 14.3% decline from highs -
Price has broken below the rising channel support and is testing critical levels
Technical Indicators (Current Status):
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MACD: Clearly bearish - histogram turning negative, signal line crossing below -
RSI: Around 33% - approaching oversold territory -
ADX: Still elevated but momentum clearly weakening -
Volume: Elevated during the decline, suggesting institutional selling
Critical Technical Levels:
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Immediate Support: S$1.60 (psychological level) -
Key Support: S$1.56-1.58 (EMA50/EMA20 confluence zone) -
Strong Support: S$1.45-1.50 (previous consolidation area) -
Resistance: S$1.70 (now acting as resistance), S$1.89 (recent high)
Revised CAREIT Impact Analysis
Current Price Action Reflects:
1. " Sell-the-News" Post-CAREIT IPO
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Classic pattern: Rally on anticipation, sell-off after event -
CAREIT IPO launched successfully, but immediate catalyst exhausted -
Market may be re-pricing OU8 without the CAREIT premium
2. Profit-Taking After 89% Rally
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Massive run-up from S$1.00 to S$1.89 (89% gain in 6 months) -
Natural correction as early investors book profits -
Technical retracement to 61.8% Fibonacci level (~S$1.55)
3. Market Concerns:
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Valuation questions post-asset spin-off -
Uncertainty about OU8' s standalone prospects -
Broader market sentiment affecting growth stocks
Investment Outlook - Revised
Near-term (Technical):
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Critical juncture: S$1.60 support must hold to avoid further decline -
Downside risk: Break below S$1.60 could trigger slide to S$1.45-1.50 -
Oversold bounce potential if RSI reaches 30 or below
Key Catalysts to Watch:
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CAREIT trading performance when it lists (impacts parent company perception) -
Q3 2025 results showing post-spin-off financial structure -
Management guidance on capital allocation strategy
Risk Assessment:
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Higher risk at current levels due to technical breakdown -
Value opportunity if fundamentals remain intact despite CAREIT spin-off -
Wait for stabilization around S$1.55-1.60 before considering entry
The S$1.62 price suggests the market is re-evaluating Centurion' s intrinsic value post-CAREIT spin-off, creating both risk and potential opportunity for value investors. Not vested now but DYODD
stlimst ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 16:38) Posted:
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Thanks Whitelotus33.
If financed by debt alone, then Loudshout is right.
The NAV will be adjusted accordingly.
If financed by debt alone, then Loudshout is right.
The NAV will be adjusted accordingly.
Whitelotus33 ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 16:03) Posted:
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The larged portfolio refers to the Epiisod property, which is being acquired by debt alone.
No details at this juncture.
Likely financed by both.
Likely financed by both.
LoudShout ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 15:00) Posted:
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How are the additonal portion (enlarged portfolio) being financed? debt or equities? If debt, then nav would be lower than ipo price
stlimst ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 14:31) Posted:
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Pls note that most of their assets are less than 30 yrs in tenure, hence the high yield preiums
The NAV is alot higher if we consider the enlarged portfolio of $2.12 billion
Estimated NAV per unit = S$2,120,000,000 ÷ 1,719,331,000 = S$1.23 per unit.
Estimated NAV per unit = S$2,120,000,000 ÷ 1,719,331,000 = S$1.23 per unit.
LoudShout ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 13:55) Posted:
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There is good visibility on the 7-8% yield for the next two years, and i would argue until 2030.
There is very good visibility on the demand and supply of foreign worker beds. Cant speak to the student housing side.
There is very good visibility on the demand and supply of foreign worker beds. Cant speak to the student housing side.
Yes, wondering why?
cfdking ( Date: 23-Sep-2025 13:38) Posted:
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IPO price of 0.88 is higher tha NAV not cheap ...rather stick to big names sponsors like Capitaland, Mapletree or Kep reits
There are so many proven reits now trading at below NAV
There are so many proven reits now trading at below NAV
Given the strong cornerstone investors and the small retail allocation, I imagine there is a mad rush to get the shares before it chiongs
Today is closing date for subscribing CAREIT. and trading on 25th September.
According to announcement :
REIT Purchase Consideration is S$1,537.3 million for the Initial Portfolio and S$1,817.4 million for the Enlarged Portfolio.
REIT Purchase Consideration is S$1,537.3 million for the Initial Portfolio and S$1,817.4 million for the Enlarged Portfolio.
LoudShout ( Date: 22-Sep-2025 15:56) Posted:
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From Chat GPT
(So, if one assumed that the book value of the properties Centurion transferred is about S$1,836.3m, and that the liabilities or debt associated with those are negligible or stay, then the net effect could be:
Based on info that Chatgpt took from public info
(So, if one assumed that the book value of the properties Centurion transferred is about S$1,836.3m, and that the liabilities or debt associated with those are negligible or stay, then the net effect could be:
- Centurion&rsquo s assets drop by ~ S$1,836.3m (transferred out).
- Centurion receives ~ S$1,477.8m back (cash / shares).
Based on info that Chatgpt took from public info
The share price of CCL continues to bafffle me.
I thought the writeup by Dr Wealth was quite comprehensive.
It mentioned that CCL will retain 37 properties and only injecting 14 properties into CAREIT.
So with $1.40 per share for the divestment, it appears that the remaining assets in CCL only worth $0.22 cents (based on the current price of $1.62) ????
I think something is very wrong.
I thought the writeup by Dr Wealth was quite comprehensive.
It mentioned that CCL will retain 37 properties and only injecting 14 properties into CAREIT.
So with $1.40 per share for the divestment, it appears that the remaining assets in CCL only worth $0.22 cents (based on the current price of $1.62) ????
I think something is very wrong.
Whitelotus33 ( Date: 22-Sep-2025 14:06) Posted:
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Let' s put it this way, do you think the people who owned the majority of Centurion would try to spin off a Reit and sell it to new investors if it were a bad deal for them? This is something they chose to do.
See rule #1 - the insiders and BBs always win.
That is the simple reasoning. The math is that Centurion is receiving S$ 1.4 in consideration in REIT units and cash from the spin off. If you sell your shares at $1.62 do you think you are getting a good deal? Centurion will continue to receive distributions from the REIT and management fees and revenue from the assets it did not sell.
See rule #1 - the insiders and BBs always win.
That is the simple reasoning. The math is that Centurion is receiving S$ 1.4 in consideration in REIT units and cash from the spin off. If you sell your shares at $1.62 do you think you are getting a good deal? Centurion will continue to receive distributions from the REIT and management fees and revenue from the assets it did not sell.
The write-up is on the CAREIT. But nothng on what is left accruing to the Co' s shaeholders considering the transfer of assets, the receipt of the Reit share, etc.. So at the end of the day, does the Co' s shareholders b s enefit and if so, by how much? So at current price is the Co' s share fairly valued?
Whitelotus33 ( Date: 22-Sep-2025 09:42) Posted:
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Of course!
how else to account to their shareholders?
Big fund managers and the rest of the BBs, the likes of JPM, MS, etc.
They always win.
If you want to win too, follow them if you can,
how else to account to their shareholders?
Big fund managers and the rest of the BBs, the likes of JPM, MS, etc.
They always win.
If you want to win too, follow them if you can,
cowabunga ( Date: 22-Sep-2025 10:19) Posted:
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Big boys always win. Period.
I care about retirees selling to sophisticated finance ppl who do things like spin off reits, which the man on the street does not understand.
Sgvale ( Date: 19-Sep-2025 18:31) Posted:
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