CDL HTrust
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-0.005
CDL HTrust - Nice breakout
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241-260 of 596
86 cents looks a good buy.
Yield is almost 6 percent.
MrBear12 ( Date: 03-May-2024 06:06) Posted:
I'd say, buy if under a dollar.
But be prepared to hold long term. 5 to 10 years at least.
Yield should be above 5 percent |
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Inflation cools.. Fed almost 100% cutting rates.. CDL Htrust with more floating loans gain to benefit immediately once the interest
rate drops as floating rates mirrors current interest rates
luckyguy3 ( Date: 14-Aug-2024 18:46) Posted:
CDL Htrust is under shortist attack based on the daily sgx short report.
When they have to cover back their short position the share price will rocket.
Loaded CDL Htrust as I believe CDL Htrust' s floating loan will be an advantage when FED cut rates in September. CDL Htrust having more floating rate loans mean any rate cuts will immediately translate to immediate cut in costs of debt.
Next the latest visitors arrival in July has hit high, to pre-covid level.
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CDL Htrust is under shortist attack based on the daily sgx short report.
When they have to cover back their short position the share price will rocket.
Loaded CDL Htrust as I believe CDL Htrust' s floating loan will be an advantage when FED cut rates in September. CDL Htrust having more floating rate loans mean any rate cuts will immediately translate to immediate cut in costs of debt.
Next the latest visitors arrival in July has hit high, to pre-covid level.
CDL Hospitality Trusts reports unchanged H1 DPS of S$0.0251
Net property income rises 5.9% to S$66.5 million
CDL Hospitality Trusts : J85 -1.03%&rsquo (CDLHT) net property income (NPI) for the first half ended Jun 30, 2024, rose 5.9 per cent to S$66.5 million, from S$62.9 million in the year-ago period.
On Tuesday (Jul 30), the managers of the stapled group reported an unchanged H1 distribution per stapled security (DPS) of S$0.0251, which was affected by higher interest costs.
Total distribution to stapled securityholders after retention was up 0.7 per cent year on year to S$31.4 million, from S$31.2 million. The distribution will be paid on Aug 30, after the closure of books on Aug 7.
The stapled group also reported a 6.8 per cent higher revenue of S$127.3 million, from S$119.2 million.
The managers noted that NPI increased in tandem with the rise in gross revenue, with the former posting an improvement in almost all of its portfolio markets.
However, NPI in its New Zealand market was down 13.9 per cent to S$3.1 million, from S$3.7 million in H1 FY2023.
NPI in its UK market remained almost unchanged at S$6.2 million.
Interest costs for H1 FY2024 increased mainly due to higher funding costs on floating rate loans and interest rate expenses from additional amounts drawn.
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth was recorded across all of the group&rsquo s portfolio markets, even as pent-up demand post-pandemic tapered off in most markets.
The managers noted a 7.7 per cent increase in its Singapore hotels&rsquo RevPAR to S$193, from S$179 in H1 FY2023. This comes as the average occupancy rate rose 9.2 percentage points to 78.4 per cent.
NPI for its Singapore portfolio increased 6.8 per cent to S$41.3 million in H1 FY2024.
The managers said that RevPAR for its Singapore portfolio &ndash which represents a core market for the stapled group &ndash was driven by an increase in occupancy.
First-quarter performance was boosted by Singapore&rsquo s concert calendar and the start of visa-free travel between China and Singapore.
However, this was weighed down in the second quarter by falling demand. This came after several weekday public holidays, an increase in hotel supply and the recent oil spill near Sentosa, among others.
Chief executive officer of CDLHT&rsquo s managers Vincent Yeo said: &ldquo As there is still a gap of visitor arrivals to pre-pandemic levels, there is still a runway for growth ahead.&rdquo
Among the stapled group&rsquo s various geographical segments, the Japan market recorded one of the more notable performances with 17.7 million visitors in H1 FY2024. This marks a 65.9 per cent year-on-year increase.
NPI in the Japan market also rose 24.1 per cent on the year to S$2.2 million, while RevPAR increased 25.4 per cent to 10,410 yen (S$90).
The managers expect positive trends in the country&rsquo s tourism sector to continue this year, supported by its appeal as a tourism destination and weaker currency.
They noted that international tourism is on its recovery path towards pre-Covid level as flights continue to be restored.
&ldquo Eventual widespread return of the Chinese visitors will be a key determinant of the recovery trajectory,&rdquo the managers added.
As at Jun 30, CDLHT&rsquo s gearing ratio was 37.7 per cent. It had a debt headroom of S$783.3 million, with cash reserves of S$64.9 million and S$648.5 million of credit facilities.
The group posted a weighted average cost of debt of 4.2 per cent and an interest coverage ratio of 2.66 times at the end of the first half of FY2024.
Yeo said: &ldquo With ample debt headroom, we will continue to rejuvenate our portfolio hotels to strengthen their positions in the marketplace for the medium to long term.&rdquo
china in recession. people there still travel seems like more to local destinations.
if cost of airfare + hotel is lower may help. stpb work harder.
a shift from luxury goods like bag, diamond to perfume, lipsticks etc may work.
overall good 1/2h results. 2nd half has f1, xmas. additonal income from completed pbr.
potential interest rate cut.
I'd say, buy if under a dollar.
But be prepared to hold long term. 5 to 10 years at least.
Yield should be above 5 percent
IMhO,
No need to monitor so tightly one.
Visitor arrivals will certainly increase.
yes my calculation is actually very simplified one.. there are some assumptions, but got a feeling becos of their high costs of debt
we may see drop in DPU this 1H/24 results if Apr-Jun period does not super outperform.
Have to monitor Apr-Jun closely for tourists arrival stats. If I see disappointing tourists arrival and REVPAR then I will switch..
The website to monitor the tourists stats.
http://stan.stb.gov.sg/content/stan/en/tourism-statistics.html
MrBear12 ( Date: 02-May-2024 21:09) Posted:
Lucky you are heading in the right direction. You consider what happens when cost of debt goes up 100 basis points. For a more accurate analysis on interest rates risk, pls refer pg 256 of annual report 2023.
Look also for 2023 cf 2022 statement of total return on page 6. The relation between Npi and dpu is not as what you make out. Its more complex and out of lay expertise. An accountant for cdl trust may be able to tell you.
Your analysis highlites in a crude way, the overall negative effects of interest rates hikes on dpu even if npi may rise.
Invest with Lucky calculations
luckyguy3 ( Date: 02-May-2024 20:15) Posted:
I made some calculation. BUT after reading through the Q1/24 results and comparing it to Q1/23, I' m a bit worried for the H1/24 results and the H1 DPU. But I not really expert in analysing the financial. Maybe some expert can help me out?
Refer to the diagram: Q1/23 Costs of debt was 3.8% and Q1/24 costs of debt is 4.3%, an extra 0.5%.
Then as shown, for every 1% increase in costs of debt, DPU will decrease by 0.89 cents (per year) so extra 0.5% cost of debt means (-0.445) cents to the DPU per year. So 1Q DPU will be reduce by 0.445/4 = 0.111 cents
H1/23 DPU was 2.51 cents. Assume half for 1Q, so Q1/23 will be 1.255 cents.
Since Q1/24 NPI is 6.8% better compard to Q1/23. So I assume Q1/24 DPU to be 1.255 + 6.8%x1.255 = 1.34 cents. BUT becos of higher cost of debt, the DPU for Q1/24 would therefore reduce by 1.34 - 0.111 = 1.229 cents
Compare Q1/24 DPUP of 1.229 cent to Q1/23 DPU of 1.255 cents, it means the DPU will drop for 1H/24 when they announce the DPU somewhere in July?
If DPU drops usually share price will drop upon announcement of results. Apri-June no more Taylor Shift to support the hotel performance.
I worried that when they announce the H1/24 dividend, there will be a drop compared to H1/23..As you know whenever there is a drop in DPU, share price also drops
Anyone can point out whether my calculation is correct?
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Lucky you are heading in the right direction. You consider what happens when cost of debt goes up 100 basis points. For a more accurate analysis on interest rates risk, pls refer pg 256 of annual report 2023.
Look also for 2023 cf 2022 statement of total return on page 6. The relation between Npi and dpu is not as what you make out. Its more complex and out of lay expertise. An accountant for cdl trust may be able to tell you.
Your analysis highlites in a crude way, the overall negative effects of interest rates hikes on dpu even if npi may rise.
Invest with Lucky calculations
luckyguy3 ( Date: 02-May-2024 20:15) Posted:
I made some calculation. BUT after reading through the Q1/24 results and comparing it to Q1/23, I' m a bit worried for the H1/24 results and the H1 DPU. But I not really expert in analysing the financial. Maybe some expert can help me out?
Refer to the diagram: Q1/23 Costs of debt was 3.8% and Q1/24 costs of debt is 4.3%, an extra 0.5%.
Then as shown, for every 1% increase in costs of debt, DPU will decrease by 0.89 cents (per year) so extra 0.5% cost of debt means (-0.445) cents to the DPU per year. So 1Q DPU will be reduce by 0.445/4 = 0.111 cents
H1/23 DPU was 2.51 cents. Assume half for 1Q, so Q1/23 will be 1.255 cents.
Since Q1/24 NPI is 6.8% better compard to Q1/23. So I assume Q1/24 DPU to be 1.255 + 6.8%x1.255 = 1.34 cents. BUT becos of higher cost of debt, the DPU for Q1/24 would therefore reduce by 1.34 - 0.111 = 1.229 cents
Compare Q1/24 DPUP of 1.229 cent to Q1/23 DPU of 1.255 cents, it means the DPU will drop for 1H/24 when they announce the DPU somewhere in July?
If DPU drops usually share price will drop upon announcement of results. Apri-June no more Taylor Shift to support the hotel performance.
I worried that when they announce the H1/24 dividend, there will be a drop compared to H1/23..As you know whenever there is a drop in DPU, share price also drops
Anyone can point out whether my calculation is correct?
MrBear12 ( Date: 01-May-2024 14:26) Posted:
Good set of results.
Below $1 is inexpensive |
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I made some calculation. BUT after reading through the Q1/24 results and comparing it to Q1/23, I' m a bit worried for the H1/24 results and the H1 DPU. But I not really expert in analysing the financial. Maybe some expert can help me out?
Refer to the diagram: Q1/23 Costs of debt was 3.8% and Q1/24 costs of debt is 4.3%, an extra 0.5%.
Then as shown, for every 1% increase in costs of debt, DPU will decrease by 0.89 cents (per year) so extra 0.5% cost of debt means (-0.445) cents to the DPU per year. So 1Q DPU will be reduce by 0.445/4 = 0.111 cents
H1/23 DPU was 2.51 cents. Assume half for 1Q, so Q1/23 will be 1.255 cents.
Since Q1/24 NPI is 6.8% better compard to Q1/23. So I assume Q1/24 DPU to be 1.255 + 6.8%x1.255 = 1.34 cents. BUT becos of higher cost of debt, the DPU for Q1/24 would therefore reduce by 1.34 - 0.111 = 1.229 cents
Compare Q1/24 DPUP of 1.229 cent to Q1/23 DPU of 1.255 cents, it means the DPU will drop for 1H/24 when they announce the DPU somewhere in July?
If DPU drops usually share price will drop upon announcement of results. Apri-June no more Taylor Shift to support the hotel performance.
I worried that when they announce the H1/24 dividend, there will be a drop compared to H1/23..As you know whenever there is a drop in DPU, share price also drops
Anyone can point out whether my calculation is correct?
MrBear12 ( Date: 01-May-2024 14:26) Posted:
Good set of results.
Below $1 is inexpensive |
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Good set of results.
Below $1 is inexpensive
CDL Hospitality Trusts reports 6.8% higher Q1 net property income of S$34.9 million
Gross revenue rises 7.3 per cent to S$65.3 million
CDL Hospitality Trusts&rsquo (CDLHT) net property income (NPI) for the first quarter ended Mar 31, 2024, rose 6.8 per cent to S$34.9 million, from S$32.7 million in the year-ago period.
This came on the back of a 7.3 per cent higher gross revenue of S$65.3 million, based on the stapled group&rsquo s business update on Tuesday (Apr 30).
The managers of the group, comprising CDL Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust and CDL Hospitality Business Trust, highlighted higher revenue per available room (RevPAR) across all geographical markets, largely driven by increased occupancies.
NPI of the group&rsquo s core market in Singapore improved by 12.8 per cent on the year to about S$22.1 million. RevPAR for the Singapore hotels was up 16.6 per cent at S$205, led by a 14.2 percentage-point increase in occupancy.
&ldquo Q1 2024 saw the return of significant demand drivers from a robust concert calendar, as well as a 30-day mutual visa exemption agreement between China and Singapore that commenced from Feb 9, 2024,&rdquo said the managers, adding that a &ldquo volume strategy&rdquo was adopted for the seasonally weaker quarter for the Singapore hotels.
Meanwhile, an earlier Easter this year tampered demand during the last week of the quarter, compromising performances of both Singapore and overseas properties.
The stapled group&rsquo s properties in New Zealand, Australia, the UK and Germany all registered lower NPI despite higher RevPAR.
The New Zealand property &ndash Grand Millennium Auckland &ndash posted a marginal RevPAR increase of 0.8 per cent year on year, with food and beverage revenues affected by the closure of its ballroom for refurbishments in Q1.
&ldquo Increased operating expenses, compounded by a weaker New Zealand dollar against Singapore dollar, led to a decline of 17.3 per cent or S$500,000 year on year in NPI for Q1 2024,&rdquo said the managers.
The Perth hotels in the Australia portfolio registered a 6.4 per cent higher RevPAR. Similarly, higher operating costs, on top of unfavourable foreign exhange rates, led to a 9.5 per cent lower NPI for the quarter.
The manager highlighted that two of the three UK hotels &ndash Hilton Cambridge City Centre and The Lowry Hotel &ndash experienced lower profit margins due to higher operating costs, particularly in payroll and utilities. Overall NPI of the UK hotels was dragged down 5 per cent to S$2.1 million.
Pullman Hotel Munich in Germany recorded an 8.6 per cent higher RevPAR, but a 5.8 per cent lower NPI as only accounting base rent on a straight-line basis was recognised, said the manager. This came as higher repair, maintenance and utilities expenses from the commercial component weighed on the NPI.
Japan hotels posted a 32.6 per cent growth in RevPAR, the highest since 2014, on robust inbound demand. Correspondingly, NPI for the Japan hotels improved 46.2 per cent to S$1.1 million, despite the depreciation of the yen against the Singapore dollar.
As at Mar 31, CDLHT&rsquo s gearing stood at 37.8 per cent with about S$66.5 million of cash reserves and S$196.9 million of committed revolving credit and term loan facilities available.
The stapled group&rsquo s interest coverage ratio stood at 2.73 times, and weighted average cost of debt was 4.3 per cent, as at the end of Q1.
&ldquo With access to short-term uncommitted bridge loan facilities of S$400 million, CDLHT will continue to pursue suitable acquisitions to augment and diversify its income streams, while working closely with its lessees and operators to execute strategic asset enhancement opportunities to bolster the portfolio&rsquo s competitiveness,&rdquo said the managers.
Should have some nice food
Come experience the hospitality of CDL
MrBear12 ( Date: 26-Apr-2024 12:27) Posted:
Reminder for AGM
M hotel , Banquet suite lvl. 10
230pm
TODAY |
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Reminder for AGM
M hotel , Banquet suite lvl. 10
230pm
TODAY
I think short term wise, CDL Htrust may not do very well becos of the high interest rate for it' s loan. Think need to wait until 2025 to see
improvement IF there is cut in interest rate at end of the year.
Find out why visitor arrivals is not the only criteria for CDL Hosp. Trust and others to do well today.
Look, I found this REITS Symposium on investingnote
and there are discounts for early birds 1 or 2 pax.
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While places last.
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What are you waiting for?
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You will love the exciting programme.
March visitor arrivals reach high again compared to last year.
Yes I agree. This is CDLHT thread and we should focus on CDLHT here. That was why I mentioned CDLHT in all my posts. My mentioning of Cromwell was because first Mr Bear12 and then yourself responded to my posts focusing on my Cromwell comments.
I would suggest that if you want to continue to ask about Cromwell it would be better for you to do that over at Cromwell thread.
This is CDLHT thread. If u want to talk about Cromwell, it would be better for u to do that over at Cromwell thread. Regards
Alignment ( Date: 11-Apr-2024 09:37) Posted:
Saying that higher yields indicates higher risk is level 1 thinking. It is true in aggregate, but not necessarily true at the individual stock level especially for a market like Singapore with less sophisticated investors and less liquidity. The challenge for investors is to determine which shares are mispriced relative to the risks. I have already stated in my previous posts what I think the risks are and why I think they are not as concerning as the market is pricing in.
In fact l was buying in at around E1.16 about 6 months ago when the implied yield was 13.5% so I am already up 35% (including the recent dividend) in the last 6 months. The market recognised during that time that this was not a 13.5% DPU yield risk, so the share price has moved up to now make it a 10.5% DPU yield. The question now is whether it is a 10.5% DPU risk, or less.
Meanwhile bringing it back to CDLHT, is CDLHT' s risk appropriately priced at 5.7% DPU? And is CDLHT at 5.7% a better investment than Cromwell at 10.5% given their respective risks? These are the questions one should be asking oneself, rather than simply saying higher yield = higher risk.
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