CapitaLand   

Capitaland

To those investors who think suggesting selling CICT is DUMB, feel free to skip my posting. Thanks Why sell CICT? Typically a good  REIT  like CICT trades somewhere from 1.05x to 1.5x NTA. Most analysts give an Target price of $2.532 for CICT for about      22%  upside  from the current share price of $2.05 to $2.10. Whereas for  REIMS  (Reits manager), the  average  for all the REIMS is  2.9x NTA. So if u sell CICT at $2.05 and buy CLI at $3 (assuming you need to pay $3, although technical it should start trading at $2.82(NTA) ) Potential upside for CICT if u wait for it to hit target price is 22% Potential upside for CLI if u wait for it to hit REIMS average of 2.9x = $2.82 x 2.9 = almost $8.2 for a almost 300% upside. So one stragety is to sell CICT and buy CLI when trading starts for CLI on 20th Sept if you want to earn more for ur capital gain. BUT if u like CICT for it' s dividend or whatever reasons u might have, then sure keep the CICT, u may even consider selling CLI to buy more CICT if that is the case. All the information given above are based on ACTUAL REAL information. Sources of the above information is given below. Sources : 1)    https://sginvestors.io/analysts/singapore-s-reit-target-price                 2)    https://investor.capitaland.com/newsroom/20210322_104741_C31_0SBERMKZPV36Z7OR.3.pdf

 

The current price is fine - it' s people selling because they don' t want to 
go through the delisting process - many will use the funds from the sale
to  buy CLI on 20th September- once this selling of CapitaLand is completed 
then the price will head to $4.10 and beyond 

 

invest8      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 12:13) Posted: According to CL, CLI implied consideration is $4.102 ..$(0.328+0.951+2.823). CL and CICT current trading prices $4.04 and $2.04 respectively, 1.5  more trading days (incl. today) for CL. I think the current lacklustre CL trading is due to the weak CICT performance, in addition to the not-so-favourable market sentiment and the shortists activities some forummers here have stated. Nevertheless, regardless of CL closing price tomorrow.. I think CLI to perform well on introductory day and trade above the implied consideration. If otherwise, a good opportunity for one to buy and accumulate..

 

According to CL, CLI implied consideration is $4.102 ..$(0.328+0.951+2.823).
CL and CICT current trading prices $4.04 and $2.04 respectively, 1.5  more trading days (incl. today) for CL.
I think the current lacklustre CL trading is due to the weak CICT performance, in addition to the not-so-favourable market sentiment and the shortists activities some forummers here have stated.
Nevertheless, regardless of CL closing price tomorrow.. I think CLI to perform well on introductory day and trade above the implied consideration. If otherwise, a good opportunity for one to buy and accumulate.. 

 

No

I mean what I say

93% of contra player are retail investors ( institutions also contra )

A contra does not have a short position 

A contra player is simply a person who buys and sells before the due date
and thus pockets the profit or pays the losses without picking up the share

A short player sells something he does not own ( possibly borrows share ) or is a naked
short in that he does not borrow the share )  in the hope of buying back later at a lower price 
so that he csn pocket the difference 

 

Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 11:23) Posted: Thanks for the clarification.  I guess you meant to say Shortist are 93% of Capitaland retail investors. Adrianinsing      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:38) Posted: Not correct  Those short far outweigh contra players  Contra players in CapitaLand are 93% retail investors

 

This is a normal situation where the storm comes before the calm. 

 

Just to clarify I am neither a shortist nor contra player.  Giving my 2 cents on why the price is hovering around the current range (would say between 4.00 to 4.10) ...

For me, there will always be these kinds of players in the market for all kinds of stocks...  I look at fundamentals and both CLI and CICT are fundamentally sound counters.  They are both keepers.
 

Lobster      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 10:54) Posted: Err.. if contra, assuming you bought at the last few days and including today, at the lowest $4.01, your price has to be at least $4.08 just to break even. You contra only, when you thinking the price will go up the next few days. Surely you don' t want to contra at a loss. As for your last sentence on CICT, is exactly what I know of what most shareholders are thinking, until some blind people ( can' t use the word dumb, or else people can get sensitive) Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I guess you meant to say Shortist are 93% of Capitaland retail investors.

Adrianinsing      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:38) Posted: Not correct  Those short far outweigh contra players  Contra players in CapitaLand are 93% retail investors    Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

Dear Adrian, 
I believe that the short sellers and traders are taking advantage of the negative sentiments of the Dow to price down CAPLAND.   Therefore your forecast of $4.10 at the last day of trading tomorrow, would be difficult to achieve.  

Nevertheless these absolutely " negative" minded people are probably the last to buy or sell their CAPLAND holdings to make gains.   They also realise that this opportunity to take gains only happens once in a long time.  

Those retail investors like some of us would have bought earlier and hold on to hopefully make gains out of CLI on and after 20 Sep, would steer clear of the current downwards volatility trap to play safe. 

There would probably some institutional investors, like Temasek with deep pockets might just buy off everything at tomorrow' s closing in order to maximise their CLI holdings. 
 

 

last sentence I meant to say, " unless you are blind and can' t see....."

Lobster      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 10:54) Posted: Err.. if contra, assuming you bought at the last few days and including today, at the lowest $4.01, your price has to be at least $4.08 just to break even. You contra only, when you thinking the price will go up the next few days. Surely you don' t want to contra at a loss. As for your last sentence on CICT, is exactly what I know of what most shareholders are thinking, until some blind people ( can' t use the word dumb, or else people can get sensitive) Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

Err.. if contra, assuming you bought at the last few days and including today, at the lowest $4.01, your price has to be at least $4.08 just to break even. You contra only, when you thinking the price will go up the next few days. Surely you don' t want to contra at a loss. As for your last sentence on CICT, is exactly what I know of what most shareholders are thinking, until some blind people ( can' t use the word dumb, or else people can get sensitive)

Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

CapitaLand will surge by market close tomorrow 

Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

Not correct 

Those short far outweigh contra players 

Contra players in CapitaLand are 93% retail investors 

 

Kandee      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 09:28) Posted: Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.) The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility.  As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

Most of the shortist will be covering their positions on Thursday for sure.    There are also contra players who would have bought this week and have to close their positions by tomorrow.  This could put the price under pressure and close at a lower price.    Looking at the price today, I think there are more contra players to shortist... (correct me if I am wrong.)

The shortist and contra players are different types of investors who hope to make gains in short term based on their assessment of market volatility. 

As for CLI and CICT, while there will be swings on the first day of listing, I expect both to grow based on fundamentals.  For me, CLI is a growth stock and CICT is an income stock.  I don' t own CICT but might consider keeping them for the long term.

 

 

And yes - it will close $4.10 or higher Thursday market close

Spike18      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 00:23) Posted: You are up late : also trading the Dow ? When someone say " I don' t dislike you ..." , it usually mean the opposite.  But, it is fine as the post is professional. Well, we have only to wait for  two days to see if it closes at 4.10 which I understood is the minimu price you guarantee (which may be a strong word and inappopriate but I do not have a better word as Wall Street is quite exciting tonight). See you Thursday evening      Adrianinsing      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 00:00) Posted: I don' t dislike you Spike18 and I like that you put a counterpoint    In fact, I welcome your open and direct approach. But I feel that your analysis is flawed on many counts    1. The NAV is rarely indicative of price globally in any counter    I' m sure you appreciate that share buying is more than that -   it is a mixture of market sentiment and the willing buyer / willing  seller conundrum - as such, beyond NAV CapitaLand and thereby    CIT overall has built a positive sentiment in the market and has    many many many institutional buyers ready to buy abd hold - these    buyers as you will soon discover ( after September 20th ) will    overwhelm the sellers and CIT will rise accordingly. This is not    me being bullish or a figment of my imagination- it comes from me  holding CapitaLand since it was DBS Land and when it joined with  Pidemco - I have seen this type of company structural change play  out again and again - enough to be able to assure you that you will discover  that CapitaLand' s ' baby' CLI will be robust and will go up 15-20%  soon after listing. 2. As for the $4.10 point you made - it has visited $4.10 on multiple occasions    and even $4.12 and as such, I can assure you will close HIGHER than that    on Thursday 5pm ( final price - after post market trading ) - just watch ! 3. Yes the champions of this counter COULD be wrong in the short term  and that' s what makes a market  - but we won' t be wrong if we hold  LONG TERM  - many of us have urged investors to buy and hold - but some insist on watching  minute by minute and holding for days or hours insteadof months and years ! 4. While the CICT price is definitely an unknown- nevertheless it' s a very small fraction    of the overall CapitaLand delisting package and has minimal impact. 5. You are correct it' s institutional money that is short not retailers - but in the end    they will have to cover before Thursday close - it' s the SGX rule.

 

In my case it means what is written and not the opposite 

Spike18      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 00:23) Posted: You are up late : also trading the Dow ? When someone say " I don' t dislike you ..." , it usually mean the opposite.  But, it is fine as the post is professional. Well, we have only to wait for  two days to see if it closes at 4.10 which I understood is the minimu price you guarantee (which may be a strong word and inappopriate but I do not have a better word as Wall Street is quite exciting tonight). See you Thursday evening      Adrianinsing      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 00:00) Posted: I don' t dislike you Spike18 and I like that you put a counterpoint    In fact, I welcome your open and direct approach. But I feel that your analysis is flawed on many counts    1. The NAV is rarely indicative of price globally in any counter    I' m sure you appreciate that share buying is more than that -   it is a mixture of market sentiment and the willing buyer / willing  seller conundrum - as such, beyond NAV CapitaLand and thereby    CIT overall has built a positive sentiment in the market and has    many many many institutional buyers ready to buy abd hold - these    buyers as you will soon discover ( after September 20th ) will    overwhelm the sellers and CIT will rise accordingly. This is not    me being bullish or a figment of my imagination- it comes from me  holding CapitaLand since it was DBS Land and when it joined with  Pidemco - I have seen this type of company structural change play  out again and again - enough to be able to assure you that you will discover  that CapitaLand' s ' baby' CLI will be robust and will go up 15-20%  soon after listing. 2. As for the $4.10 point you made - it has visited $4.10 on multiple occasions    and even $4.12 and as such, I can assure you will close HIGHER than that    on Thursday 5pm ( final price - after post market trading ) - just watch ! 3. Yes the champions of this counter COULD be wrong in the short term  and that' s what makes a market  - but we won' t be wrong if we hold  LONG TERM  - many of us have urged investors to buy and hold - but some insist on watching  minute by minute and holding for days or hours insteadof months and years ! 4. While the CICT price is definitely an unknown- nevertheless it' s a very small fraction    of the overall CapitaLand delisting package and has minimal impact. 5. You are correct it' s institutional money that is short not retailers - but in the end    they will have to cover before Thursday close - it' s the SGX rule.

 

Last chance to buy CapitaLand at a low price 😊

CapitaLand will rally strongly before market closes on Thursday 

 

You are up late : also trading the Dow ?

When someone say " I don' t dislike you ..." , it usually mean the opposite.  But, it is fine as the post is professional.

Well, we have only to wait for  two days to see if it closes at 4.10 which I understood is the minimu price you guarantee (which may be a strong word and inappopriate but I do not have a better word as Wall Street is quite exciting tonight).

See you Thursday evening     

Adrianinsing      ( Date: 08-Sep-2021 00:00) Posted: I don' t dislike you Spike18 and I like that you put a counterpoint    In fact, I welcome your open and direct approach. But I feel that your analysis is flawed on many counts    1. The NAV is rarely indicative of price globally in any counter    I' m sure you appreciate that share buying is more than that -   it is a mixture of market sentiment and the willing buyer / willing  seller conundrum - as such, beyond NAV CapitaLand and thereby    CIT overall has built a positive sentiment in the market and has    many many many institutional buyers ready to buy abd hold - these    buyers as you will soon discover ( after September 20th ) will    overwhelm the sellers and CIT will rise accordingly. This is not    me being bullish or a figment of my imagination- it comes from me  holding CapitaLand since it was DBS Land and when it joined with  Pidemco - I have seen this type of company structural change play  out again and again - enough to be able to assure you that you will discover  that CapitaLand' s ' baby' CLI will be robust and will go up 15-20%  soon after listing. 2. As for the $4.10 point you made - it has visited $4.10 on multiple occasions    and even $4.12 and as such, I can assure you will close HIGHER than that    on Thursday 5pm ( final price - after post market trading ) - just watch ! 3. Yes the champions of this counter COULD be wrong in the short term  and that' s what makes a market  - but we won' t be wrong if we hold  LONG TERM  - many of us have urged investors to buy and hold - but some insist on watching  minute by minute and holding for days or hours insteadof months and years ! 4. While the CICT price is definitely an unknown- nevertheless it' s a very small fraction    of the overall CapitaLand delisting package and has minimal impact. 5. You are correct it' s institutional money that is short not retailers - but in the end    they will have to cover before Thursday close - it' s the SGX rule. Spike18      ( Date: 07-Sep-2021 23:17) Posted: Do you think that retailers can short in millions ? Do you think I am a retailer ?  All the positions are covered.  This tells you that all the champions of this counter could be wrong. If you look at the equation some jokeman put up : X times of CLI NAV + 0.951 cents +  0.155 (CICT) = minimum 4.10.  The only certainty is 0.951 cents.  There are two unknowns  X and the price of CICT.  In fact, 3 unknowns - the big one being NAV of CLI.  If anyone has some vague ideas in accounting/finance.  NAV is actually very subjective - many factors influence its value.  Just follow some company annual reports for a few years, a company NAV can fluctuates significantly.  At least, there are sufficient of investors (be in short or long term), believes that we can  get CLI cheaper.  There are alot of smart money out there : if it is worth 4.10 or more, the share price would not have languish at this level.

 

Thanks for all your replies and feedbacks.. 

a).  So if the shortist need to cover such hugh amount of shares by Thursday then clearly it looks like the price will shoot up much higher for sudden rush for 40 million outstanding short position shares..

b).    But on the contrary, if the shortist decided to keep this short position then they will have to cough out the new shares (CLI), and in such a case  where will they get this new shares as it is not listed yet..?? 

I am still very doubtful on what confidence do this Instituitions are holding such big short positions as the last day of trading is nearing  or  Is there something else in the trading rules that we retailers are not aware off.. Thanks.. 

 

I don' t dislike you Spike18 and I like that you put a counterpoint   

In fact, I welcome your open and direct approach.

But I feel that your analysis is flawed on many counts   

1. The NAV is rarely indicative of price globally in any counter    I' m sure you appreciate
that share buying is more than that -   it is a mixture of market sentiment and the willing
buyer / willing  seller conundrum - as such, beyond NAV CapitaLand and thereby    CIT overall
has built a positive sentiment in the market and has    many many many institutional buyers
ready to buy abd hold - these    buyers as you will soon discover ( after September 20th ) will   
overwhelm the sellers and CIT will rise accordingly. This is not    me being bullish or a figment
of my imagination- it comes from me  holding CapitaLand since it was DBS Land and when it
joined with  Pidemco - I have seen this type of company structural change play  out again and
again - enough to be able to assure you that you will discover  that CapitaLand' s ' baby' CLI
will be robust and will go up 15-20%  soon after listing.

2. As for the $4.10 point you made - it has visited $4.10 on multiple occasions    and even $4.12
and as such, I can assure you will close HIGHER than that    on Thursday 5pm ( final price - after
post market trading ) - just watch !

3. Yes the champions of this counter COULD be wrong in the short term  and that' s what makes
a market  - but we won' t be wrong if we hold  LONG TERM  - many of us have urged investors to
buy and hold - but some insist on watching  minute by minute and holding for days or hours insteadof months and years !

4. While the CICT price is definitely an unknown- nevertheless it' s a very small fraction    of the overall CapitaLand delisting package and has minimal impact.

5. You are correct it' s institutional money that is short not retailers - but in the end    they will have to cover before Thursday close - it' s the SGX rule.

Spike18      ( Date: 07-Sep-2021 23:17) Posted: Do you think that retailers can short in millions ? Do you think I am a retailer ?  All the positions are covered.  This tells you that all the champions of this counter could be wrong. If you look at the equation some jokeman put up : X times of CLI NAV + 0.951 cents +  0.155 (CICT) = minimum 4.10.  The only certainty is 0.951 cents.  There are two unknowns  X and the price of CICT.  In fact, 3 unknowns - the big one being NAV of CLI.  If anyone has some vague ideas in accounting/finance.  NAV is actually very subjective - many factors influence its value.  Just follow some company annual reports for a few years, a company NAV can fluctuates significantly.  At least, there are sufficient of investors (be in short or long term), believes that we can  get CLI cheaper.  There are alot of smart money out there : if it is worth 4.10 or more, the share price would not have languish at this level.          happy2020      ( Date: 07-Sep-2021 21:37) Posted: Hi Friends..  Can anyone explain how the shortist will cover their positions if the last date of trading is on 9 Sep 2021.  As per last report from last week, the short position outstanding is still at 40 515 860 shares.  And looking at the last one week trading, the volume does not add up to this 40 million.. So I cant understand how the shortist would cover their shorts.. Pls enlighten me. Thanks for your replies.

 

They will have to deliver the new shares and cash, just reverse of what shareholders will receive.

happy2020      ( Date: 07-Sep-2021 21:37) Posted: Hi Friends..  Can anyone explain how the shortist will cover their positions if the last date of trading is on 9 Sep 2021.  As per last report from last week, the short position outstanding is still at 40 515 860 shares.  And looking at the last one week trading, the volume does not add up to this 40 million.. So I cant understand how the shortist would cover their shorts.. Pls enlighten me. Thanks for your replies.