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DJ MARKET TALK: JPM Advises Long SGX, Short HKEx, Eyes 10% Upside

0624 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan advises long Singapore Exchanges (S68.SG) / short HKEx (0388.HK) trade, for 10% upside in a 4-6 weeks time. It expects SGX to outperform HKEx over next 4-6 weeks for three reasons: trading volumes at SGX are up 18% in last three months, while down 33% at HKEx SGX share price is factoring in 11% lower volumes vs 30-day moving average turnover, while HKEx is factoring in 20% higher than current volumes, and " we think street expectations for 2012 HKEx earnings are at higher risk of downgrades." JPM adds, the HKEx/SGX price ratio is at 15.45X right now, which it expects to move down to 14X, with a stop loss at 16X. HKEx is down 0.8% at HK$106.00. ([email protected])

 

Uncle comment: Nomura always behind the curve with SGX n KepCorp. Always call sell when stock starts going up, say all the bad things, then after stock go up alot n price peak, change to buy call, say all the good things. Then stock price go down alot.

Sometimes uncle feel as if certain  house traders  may  influence research to issue a sell call, then house traders accumulate stock when retailers sell, then ramp up, later on somehow a buy call issued when price gone up a lot......

Nothing is so straight forward in the markets, many tricksters around. The things nomura say abt SGX, who doesn't know alrdy? Question is, r these things discounted in the price, and is the situation getting better from here onwards? Uncle's opinion is 'yes'.

Many, many times, uncle made big money buying n holding stocks while houses  call sell on them.

 

 

SGX expecting some big ticket IPOs
By Millet Enriquez | Posted: 23 August 2012 1802 hrs

	Photos 1  of 1 Singapore Exchange

		inShare0

 

 

SINGAPORE: Singapore Exchange CEO Magnus Bocker said he expects a few big ticket initial public offerings (IPOs) to come into Singapore for the rest of 2012.

These listings are expected to come from local and regional companies.

Mr Bocker was speaking at the sidelines of an investment week launch to educate retail investors.

He said well-subscribed initial public offerings in July and August are encouraging more companies to list.

But market sentiment in the second half of the year will still be driven by events in Europe and the US.

And the listing of new IPOs are all a question of timing.

When asked if SGX will be able to surpass the success of the Malaysian bourse, Mr Bocker said he is happy with Bursa Malaysia's two big IPOs this year (Felda and IHH Healthcare), which have attracted investors to come into the market - especially for retail and long-term investors.

Mr Bocker said: " We see there are a lot of... regional and local companies of very good size that need to come to the market to raise funds for their investments, for growing and for creating jobs which is really why we are here.

" And that goes for both Singaporean companies as well as the regional ones, whether it's Indonesia where we've had some companies from."

Robson Lee, partner at law firm Shooklin & Bok, believes the resurgence in interest for IPOs is a result of good earnings expectations from companies.

" Some of these companies envisage they would have a good set of results this year. It takes six to nine months to prepare (for an IPO), so it would be a good time now for them to start the preparation, in case the market picks up, they are ready to go," he said.

These firms are likely to come from sectors such as minerals and resources, property and construction, and food and beverage, Mr Lee added.

Meanwhile, the Securities Investors Association (Singapore) launched the first Singapore Investment Week from August 25 to 31 and has lined up seminars and workshops to educate retail investors.

Experts from banking, brokerage and investment firms are slated to speak on the basics of stock trading, investment products, investment tools and the market outlook.

These seminars will be held in various locations like the SGX Auditorium, the MND Auditorium and UOB Kay Hian's Investor Centres in Jurong East and Bedok.

David Gerald, president and CEO of Securities Investors Association (Singapore), said: " This whole campaign is about bringing the message: Learn how to invest. Do not invest if you do not know anything about investment. And if you don't want to know anything about investment, walk away."

- CNA/cc

 

As long as peolpe are willing to believe, no one can blame any guru, or teacher, or whatever...

    As long as people like to believe, even though it is pure nonsense, they can't blame anyone.

        The weakest trait of many humans is they just like to believe in something... esp. what they like...         .

 

superoldfart      ( Date: 13-Aug-2012 22:41) Posted: Regarding whether SGX will go down after ex-div middle next month, uncle prob take a wait n see attitude first. Uncle don't mind holding SGX as long as think can go higher. If general market is getting better, SGX might go up continue into next year. Maybe next year SGX above $10. If so, throw next month may miss out if don't buy back. Usually uncle try hold on to stock until some point where uncle think market or stock  have potential to  reverse so much that uncle not willing to hold n ride thru correction n uncle want to crystallize profit first. Let's say SGX go to $10-11 in 2013, then look like general market correction come. If SGX up $5 from $6 bottom  to $11, easily can fall back $2-3 or more. Since uncle hold 300+ lots, $3 pullback is $900K lost. No point to hold thru such a loss. Uncle say: when to sell is an art, when to buy is an art. Don't ever follow Warren Buffet who tell u don't try to time market. U must always try to time market. Maybe u don't succeed sometimes, but does not mean u must not try. In fact, uncle give honest opinion, Warren Buffet teaching poison investment hopes of many young sinkaporean investor. They all start follow Buffet style, after 5-10 years lose money/never make money, give up never invest again. Just buy property and keep FD in bank. Say buy shares sure lose money one. Don't know if Warrren teach wrong thing on purpose so he can chiak u or maybe it just work for him but cannot work for average investor. Uncle know Warren Buffet style will never work for uncle.

 

Regarding whether SGX will go down after ex-div middle next month, uncle prob take a wait n see attitude first. Uncle don't mind holding SGX as long as think can go higher. If general market is getting better, SGX might go up continue into next year. Maybe next year SGX above $10. If so, throw next month may miss out if don't buy back.

Usually uncle try hold on to stock until some point where uncle think market or stock  have potential to  reverse so much that uncle not willing to hold n ride thru correction n uncle want to crystallize profit first. Let's say SGX go to $10-11 in 2013, then look like general market correction come. If SGX up $5 from $6 bottom  to $11, easily can fall back $2-3 or more. Since uncle hold 300+ lots, $3 pullback is $900K lost. No point to hold thru such a loss.

Uncle say: when to sell is an art, when to buy is an art. Don't ever follow Warren Buffet who tell u don't try to time market. U must always try to time market. Maybe u don't succeed sometimes, but does not mean u must not try.

In fact, uncle give honest opinion, Warren Buffet teaching poison investment hopes of many young sinkaporean investor. They all start follow Buffet style, after 5-10 years lose money/never make money, give up never invest again. Just buy property and keep FD in bank. Say buy shares sure lose money one. Don't know if Warrren teach wrong thing on purpose so he can chiak u or maybe it just work for him but cannot work for average investor. Uncle know Warren Buffet style will never work for uncle.

 

Uncle is still uncle, experience beats talent! I have been bite before last year August during the America crisis, cut loss and lost 1k.  After that  don't dare to touch share for one whole year.  But during this one whole year, i have been observing the market closely and decided to come back to market during late June 2012. Currently trying to learn shorting! so in the event if the  financial crisis hit, i will quickily cut loss and play shorting (reverse gear). No matter market good or bad there is always opportunity!  Is whether you have the knowledge to take advantage of it and have the guts to continue to play with  what you believe will happen! Still have alot to learn from Uncle old fart. My journey is still very long... 

superoldfart      ( Date: 13-Aug-2012 20:55) Posted: Well said, young man! When  you young man, gun very powderful but sometimes fire target miss one, becos experience no enuh. When  you old man your gun not so powderful, but accurate jun jun, becos more experience. Fire target sometimes  hit bullseye! Uncle remember play shares in 80s, 90s, early 2000, make $$$ like hell, but when market start vomit blood, must quickly run road or else lose like hell also. Secret how to make money in investment, is not how to leverage, what financial degree u have, but is: 1) know when to cut loss(even if very painful), 2) know when u must not touch(even if everyone say good) If u don't know, don't touch. This  super  important basic of investment sial. This one no school teach u. Even u scholar u gangan chiong u also die die one if u don't follow this basic rule, sial. Last time see so many uncle aunty kenah persuaded by bank manager use life-saving buy lehman minibond, pinnacle note all these kind of rubbishes. Every week bank manager call up uncle ask uncle buy Minibond, equity/currency-linked notes etc etc. Uncle always say no politely. They  say, capital back guaranteed. Uncle say, young lady bank manager, please  dont talk kork. No such thing capital back guaranteed unless sinkapore gahment promise capital back. Then even no money can print money return capital sial. Then subprime come, Lehman busted, all the minibond, pinnacle note suddenly become zero. Good thing many old folks got return money by bank or else lose life savings--then how? Cry and jump off flat? Or complain Tan Kin Lian website, Temasek Review website  n vote Worker's Party? Some old folks don't eat lunch, save money, don't take MRT walk save money, now suddenly lose all lifesavings few 100K like dat sial. Why? Becos they never follow investment basic. If u don't know, don't touch. Never mind bank manager say capital guaranteed back plus  high interest. If u lose money will bank manager pay u? Many bank also make these chaokar product becos want to pass risk to u(retail customer). U think bank want to help u? Fren, bank to  squeeze u dry! Bank is not yr fren, ok!!!!    Next, always cut loss. If your investment wrong, must know how to throw, whether is property or shares. The faster u throw the better. Painful nevermind.  Cut loss always is risk like buy one. Sometimes turn out wrong. Price recover go up higher, u cut loss for nothing, bang balls one. But when u don't cut loss one day u kenah subprime or asian crisis, yr investment jatoh 90% n never recover, or u forced to sell at bottom cos cashflow problem. Some gullible youngster say Warren Buffet teach u don't cut loss if yr investment is fundamentally sound, don't try to time market, etc. But I see Warren Buffet everytime try to time market but only sometimes successful. Also how u know yr investment is fundamentally sound? Maybe u made mistake? U r not Warren Buffet. U r just Joe Sinkapore, ok? Cut loss there protect yr capital, even u make mistake u won't die. That is logic of cutting loss. Even u don't now why u wrong, u sure u r right, even more u must cut loss. That's why all the youngster I see follow Warren Buffet as role model, not ONE ever made money in stockmarket. Uncle say: investment lifelong journey one, so many things can learn, so many interesting round to play, better than gambling horse, go geylang, call underage escort.....all these cannot  fight " game of investment" . Is for sure,  most challenging  game in the world. When u got it right, u make so much money u also dunno what to do with it(uncle pay off all bank loans on uncle's properties--no debt), when u lose, the most chiobu escort jump on your lap u also no mood do anything, horse stay in starting gate sial. Hope all young men n young ladies have good investment this round. Cheers!

 

Well said, young man!

When  you young man, gun very powderful but sometimes fire target miss one, becos experience no enuh. When  you old man your gun not so powderful, but accurate jun jun, becos more experience. Fire target sometimes  hit bullseye!

Uncle remember play shares in 80s, 90s, early 2000, make $$$ like hell, but when market start vomit blood, must quickly run road or else lose like hell also. Secret how to make money in investment, is not how to leverage, what financial degree u have, but is:

1) know when to cut loss(even if very painful),

2) know when u must not touch(even if everyone say good)

If u don't know, don't touch. This  super  important basic of investment sial. This one no school teach u. Even u scholar u gangan chiong u also die die one if u don't follow this basic rule, sial.

Last time see so many uncle aunty kenah persuaded by bank manager use life-saving buy lehman minibond, pinnacle note all these kind of rubbishes. Every week bank manager call up uncle ask uncle buy Minibond, equity/currency-linked notes etc etc. Uncle always say no politely.

They  say, capital back guaranteed. Uncle say, young lady bank manager, please  dont talk kork. No such thing capital back guaranteed unless sinkapore gahment promise capital back. Then even no money can print money return capital sial.

Then subprime come, Lehman busted, all the minibond, pinnacle note suddenly become zero. Good thing many old folks got return money by bank or else lose life savings--then how? Cry and jump off flat? Or complain Tan Kin Lian website, Temasek Review website  n vote Worker's Party? Some old folks don't eat lunch, save money, don't take MRT walk save money, now suddenly lose all lifesavings few 100K like dat sial. Why? Becos they never follow investment basic. If u don't know, don't touch. Never mind bank manager say capital guaranteed back plus  high interest. If u lose money will bank manager pay u? Many bank also make these chaokar product becos want to pass risk to u(retail customer). U think bank want to help u? Fren, bank to  squeeze u dry! Bank is not yr fren, ok!!!!   

Next, always cut loss. If your investment wrong, must know how to throw, whether is property or shares. The faster u throw the better. Painful nevermind.  Cut loss always is risk like buy one. Sometimes turn out wrong. Price recover go up higher, u cut loss for nothing, bang balls one. But when u don't cut loss one day u kenah subprime or asian crisis, yr investment jatoh 90% n never recover, or u forced to sell at bottom cos cashflow problem.

Some gullible youngster say Warren Buffet teach u don't cut loss if yr investment is fundamentally sound, don't try to time market, etc. But I see Warren Buffet everytime try to time market but only sometimes successful. Also how u know yr investment is fundamentally sound? Maybe u made mistake? U r not Warren Buffet. U r just Joe Sinkapore, ok? Cut loss there protect yr capital, even u make mistake u won't die. That is logic of cutting loss. Even u don't now why u wrong, u sure u r right, even more u must cut loss.

That's why all the youngster I see follow Warren Buffet as role model, not ONE ever made money in stockmarket.

Uncle say: investment lifelong journey one, so many things can learn, so many interesting round to play, better than gambling horse, go geylang, call underage escort.....all these cannot  fight " game of investment" . Is for sure,  most challenging  game in the world.

When u got it right, u make so much money u also dunno what to do with it(uncle pay off all bank loans on uncle's properties--no debt), when u lose, the most chiobu escort jump on your lap u also no mood do anything, horse stay in starting gate sial.

Hope all young men n young ladies have good investment this round. Cheers!

 

Hi uncle old fart, have been following sgx since enlighten by you words "when you say market will not be forever be down, one day sgx will be good again" and I decide to enter sgx at 6.48. I must say, ginger is still old better haha. Anw I think after ex div, I believe sgx will come down again during December. Can cash out b4 ex div and enter again at dec at lower price

superoldfart      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:43) Posted: Uncle waiting waiting see how Far East Hospt Trust IPO n Berjaya Sports Toto IPO affect volume n sentiment.  SGX priceaction looks steady....many  uncle n auntie  starting interested  buy SGX, but still hesitant to buy sial....I olledy buy 5 lot for my grandson....I tell him  gangan safe at this price, also got one siaobeh inside SGX called Magnus Prime, like " Optimus Prime" in his favorite movie " Transformer" --this one sometimes do " Buyserker" , sometimes save earth one...... Uncle wonder if we have a better market, will SGX ever go back to its high of $17.90 before subprime crisis sial.......

 

Don'ch need $17.90 lah......got 10 bucks I sor stomach liao.

superoldfart      ( Date: 10-Aug-2012 17:43) Posted: Uncle waiting waiting see how Far East Hospt Trust IPO n Berjaya Sports Toto IPO affect volume n sentiment.  SGX priceaction looks steady....many  uncle n auntie  starting interested  buy SGX, but still hesitant to buy sial....I olledy buy 5 lot for my grandson....I tell him  gangan safe at this price, also got one siaobeh inside SGX called Magnus Prime, like " Optimus Prime" in his favorite movie " Transformer" --this one sometimes do " Buyserker" , sometimes save earth one...... Uncle wonder if we have a better market, will SGX ever go back to its high of $17.90 before subprime crisis sial.......

 

Uncle waiting waiting see how Far East Hospt Trust IPO n Berjaya Sports Toto IPO affect volume n sentiment.  SGX priceaction looks steady....many  uncle n auntie  starting interested  buy SGX, but still hesitant to buy sial....I olledy buy 5 lot for my grandson....I tell him  gangan safe at this price, also got one siaobeh inside SGX called Magnus Prime, like " Optimus Prime" in his favorite movie " Transformer" --this one sometimes do " Buyserker" , sometimes save earth one......

Uncle wonder if we have a better market, will SGX ever go back to its high of $17.90 before subprime crisis sial.......

 

Resistance at 6.82 break liao and it's brewing with improved daily turnover.

Above 7 bucks is around the corner.

TradeChancellor      ( Date: 06-Aug-2012 01:58) Posted: looks like a mini up trend mirroring STI but got resistance at around $6.80 - $6.82... in this climate, good to quick-in quick-out

 

 

With all the good news SGX shud open in 6 hrs' time with a big bang!

SGX cheong argh!

superoldfart      ( Date: 06-Aug-2012 01:18) Posted: SGX july market stats not bad. If got a few IPOs every month(this month got some coming), volume pickup might sustain at a higher level liao.

 

looks like a mini up trend mirroring STI but got resistance at around $6.80 - $6.82... in this climate, good to quick-in quick-out

 

So tomorrow buy ah?

 

SGX july market stats not bad. If got a few IPOs every month(this month got some coming), volume pickup might sustain at a higher level liao.

 

Uncle is vested so maybe biased, but share look quite resilient. Go down but come back up....now we wait for sgx monthly stats next week. See how price reacts. Hear more IPOs coming, M'sia want to list Berjaya Sports Toto here sial under biz trust like Hutchison Port sial.....if market supported here, think 7.50 easily achievable

 

 

MAYBANK KIM ENG results review for SGX     30July 2012

Analyst--James Koh

In line with expectations. FY6/12 reported net profit came in at $292. Underlying net profit of $304m was down only 3% yoy, which we believe reflects a commendable set of results given the challenging market conditions. Management proposed an unchanged final dividend of SGD 15 cents/ share (full year unchanged at SGD 27 cent/ share), which represents a 99% payout.

Derivatives revenue held up performance. SDAV fell from %1.6b to $1.3b for the year, which was a familiar story for most exchanges around the world. As a result, securities revenue declined 16% yoy. Results were again held up by derivatives revenue, which were up 18% yoy. This segment posted another record quarter and has now shown steady growth over the past 12 quarters. Derivatives now account for 26% of total group revenue vs Securities which contribute 38%.

Good cost control was another factor. Operating expenses were kept under control, declining 1% in line with the revenue decline. Between FY10-FY12, there were significant investments in new systems, which we believe has come to the end of a cycle. Importantly, we believe the lower capex going forward ($30-$35m per annum guidance) will be conducive for generous dividend payouts.

Partnerships may be a better avenue than M& As.

Going forward, we expect management to continue pursing organic initiatives as well as partnerships with other exchanges to grow. SGX recently signed a memorandum of understanding with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to enable cross-trading of their most actively traded stocks. Management believes this platform, will make both exchanges more attractive for companies seeking a listing.

SDAV at cyclical lows, maintain BUY. We believe SDAV is currently at cyclical lows. An uptick in trading volumes, combined with a growing derivatives business will bring SGX earnings to greater heights. With a cashed-up balance sheet, we believe sustainable dividend yield will remain healthy at around 4-5% at current price. Maintain BUY with a target price of SGD7.50 pegged at 23x FY6/13F PER. Singapore Exchange – Summary Earnings Table
FYE Jun (SGD m)	2011		2012	2013F		2014F		2015F
Revenue	660.7		647.9	692.9		726.2		757.4
EBITDA	411.1		404.4	442.7		467.3		490.3
Recurring Net Profit	312.9		302.5	331.7		348.9		364.7
Recurring EPS (SGD cts)	27.5		27.2	31.0		32.5		34.0
DPS (SGD cts)	27.0		27.0	28.8		30.3		31.6
PER (x)	24.1		24.4	21.5		20.4		19.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	15.6		15.9	14.5		13.7		13.0
Div Yield (%)	4.1		4.1	4.3		4.6		4.8
P/BV (x)	8.7		8.5	8.3		8.1		7.9
ROE (%)	35.8		35.0	38.7		39.6		40.2
ROA (%)	15.5		16.9	18.7		19.0		19.3
Consensus Net Profit		332.7			379.3		na