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3 BIG Spore banks ....:))

WOW DBS is charging way ahead w coming result .....a National Day bonus ? 
$37 is given , when will it hit 38 ? end of Jul ? 
DYODD

 

44c max in line with payout ratio 53%.
46c would mean ocbc has to earn a lot of $. 

 

Q2 and hence 1H result should be good .....dont expect any major bad loan and hence provision minimum . 
DBS should be 55/60 ....I am expecting more on the high side per CEO promise 
UOB should still be 85/88 ( conservative stand ) 
OCBC is harder to guess as GE do cost them some $$ ......42/45 max   
DYODD

Echoes      ( Date: 01-Jul-2024 13:36) Posted: DBS 54 cts UOB 90 to 95 cts OCBC 42 to 44 cts Luckygal      ( Date: 01-Jul-2024 12:00) Posted: Any guess on the banks' interim dividend?

 

my take is 

dbs : 60 cts
uob : same as ur prediction
ocbc : ditto

earnings announcements:

uob : 1st aug
ocbc 2nd aug
dbs 8th aug

Echoes      ( Date: 01-Jul-2024 13:36) Posted: DBS 54 cts UOB 90 to 95 cts OCBC 42 to 44 cts Luckygal      ( Date: 01-Jul-2024 12:00) Posted: Any guess on the banks' interim dividend?

 

Beginning of 2H 2024 .....and STI is powered up by all three banks . 
Excluding the banks major move ....most counters ....kep ,  SCI , Wilmar are actually down .......

So interest rate are really the major play here. 

Result season coming up in 30 days .....so much of expectation .  One thing is it is going to be good. 
DBS is expected to lead again . UOB could be better w consolidation .  OCBC honestly is a little surprise to me . 
Anyway 12th Jul after the close of the offer ....wld be more interesting on OCBC ( what next ? .....IF it is to keep GE list it has to come out w over 10% float ..hmm) 2 major over 3% holder is most likely fighting till the end .  Time will tell.  ( I prefer to stay out lol ) 

DYODD

 

DBS 54 cts
UOB 90 to 95 cts
OCBC 42 to 44 cts

Luckygal      ( Date: 01-Jul-2024 12:00) Posted: Any guess on the banks' interim dividend?

 

Any guess on the banks' interim dividend?

 

For OCBC to ganna more than 90% and re do a private placement to ensure there is 10 % free float in the market is unlikely

 

There is another option for OCBC,
Step1 after the close of 12 Jul, they can give another FAIR and reasonable offer within 6 months.
Step 2 after the FAIR and reasonable offer, still cannot get the 100% which i think is quite likely to happen, then
Step 3 Apply for Compulsory acquistion for the remaining shares, which i think they ould succeed


 

FATABA      ( Date: 25-Jun-2024 08:47) Posted: On June 24,  Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC)  announced it had received a 1.48 million shares or 0.31% of acceptances from shareholders of  Great Eastern Holdings (GEH)  on June 24, taking the banking group' s total stake to 90.16%. On May 14, OCBC made an offer of $25.60 for the 11.56% of GEH it did not own. On June 14, GEH' s independent financial adviser (IFA) Ernst & Young stated that OCBC' s offer was " not fair but reasonable" and advised the independent directors of GEH to recommend to shareholders to accept the offer. Also on June 14, OCBC announced that its $25.60 offer price is final, and it extended the period for valid acceptances till July 12. It appears increasingly unlikely that OCBC is going to raise the offer price after July 12 with an exit offer as some market watchers including media outlets have suggested. Although OCBC has stated its intention to delist GEH, the understanding is, that the banking group is not likely to delist GEH at any cost. OCBC' s board have a duty of care to its own 125,000-plus shareholders. Acquisitions need to be accretive.  Interestingly, two conditions need to be met for a stock to be delisted from the Singapore Exchange. The first condition that has not been met is that the IFA has to recommend that the offer is fair and reasonable. The second condition is that 75% of the 11.56% of GEH' s minority shareholders need to accept the offer. This would mean that OCBC is required to own 97.17% of GEH to delist it. Given that some old time shareholders and the Wong family have indicated they do not plan to accept the offer, OCBC may not be able to get to 97.17%.  Should these two conditions not be met, GEH may have to issue new shares to restore the free float via a private placement. A general rule for the pricing of the new shares is that it should not be 10% lower than the last traded price of GEH. However, some market observers are now suggesting that the regulator may provide a bit of wriggle room on the 10% discount. GEH will announce its 1HFY2024 results on July 31, and closed at $25.70 on June 24. Takeover is definately successful BUT to delist it is another issue ......would it cost OCBC more to do this ? Time will tell.  DYODD

 

On June 24,  Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC)  announced it had received a 1.48 million shares or 0.31% of acceptances from shareholders of  Great Eastern Holdings (GEH)  on June 24, taking the banking group' s total stake to 90.16%. On May 14, OCBC made an offer of $25.60 for the 11.56% of GEH it did not own. On June 14, GEH' s independent financial adviser (IFA) Ernst & Young stated that OCBC' s offer was " not fair but reasonable" and advised the independent directors of GEH to recommend to shareholders to accept the offer. Also on June 14, OCBC announced that its $25.60 offer price is final, and it extended the period for valid acceptances till July 12. It appears increasingly unlikely that OCBC is going to raise the offer price after July 12 with an exit offer as some market watchers including media outlets have suggested. Although OCBC has stated its intention to delist GEH, the understanding is, that the banking group is not likely to delist GEH at any cost. OCBC' s board have a duty of care to its own 125,000-plus shareholders. Acquisitions need to be accretive.  Interestingly, two conditions need to be met for a stock to be delisted from the Singapore Exchange. The first condition that has not been met is that the IFA has to recommend that the offer is fair and reasonable. The second condition is that 75% of the 11.56% of GEH' s minority shareholders need to accept the offer. This would mean that OCBC is required to own 97.17% of GEH to delist it. Given that some old time shareholders and the Wong family have indicated they do not plan to accept the offer, OCBC may not be able to get to 97.17%.  Should these two conditions not be met, GEH may have to issue new shares to restore the free float via a private placement. A general rule for the pricing of the new shares is that it should not be 10% lower than the last traded price of GEH. However, some market observers are now suggesting that the regulator may provide a bit of wriggle room on the 10% discount. GEH will announce its 1HFY2024 results on July 31, and closed at $25.70 on June 24.

Takeover is definately successful BUT to delist it is another issue ......would it cost OCBC more to do this ? Time will tell.  DYODD

 

As of now GE is traded at 25.60 BUY .....with limited or very little sellers. 
The takeover is more of less confirmed .....w OCBC collecting close to 90% of shares now ... thereby allowing them to delist GE . 

With this , I personally think that OCBC share price might be drifting aro this range or lower ....taking some mths to digest this takeover. 
1H result wld be good per expectation of mkt . 
DYODD

 

Purely from a market point of view, its does not make sense. 
But there are other considerations, perhaps.
Accepting the fact that the offer price is unlikely to be raised.
But also, hoping that the offer might be raised in an unlikely event.

Echoes      ( Date: 16-Jun-2024 11:02) Posted: Thanks . Punting is understandable . But selling to OCBC at 25.60 instead of selling in the open market for $26+ doesnt make sense .  From the announcement : " As at end 13 June 2024, OCBC has received acceptances for 1,743,475 Great Eastern shares or 0.37% of the total number of Great Eastern shares from Great Eastern shareholders. This raises OCBC&rsquo s stake in Great Eastern to 88.80%, and to 89.01% if the number of shares held by OCBC&rsquo s concert parties is included. " Thats over a million dollars less collectively .    MrBear12      ( Date: 16-Jun-2024 10:31) Posted: These are punters hoping the exit price will be raised substantially. Several are on this forum. There are some GE shareholders who sold above the offer price. They immediately realise their investment slightly above offer price. Others hold on hoping for higher price. I would just accept the offer price, like those u said

 

Thanks .

Punting is understandable .

But selling to OCBC at 25.60 instead of selling in the open market for $26+ doesnt make sense . 
From the announcement :
" As at end 13 June 2024, OCBC has received acceptances for 1,743,475 Great Eastern shares or 0.37% of the total number of Great Eastern shares from Great Eastern shareholders. This raises OCBC&rsquo s stake in Great Eastern to 88.80%, and to 89.01% if the number of shares held by OCBC&rsquo s concert parties is included. "

Thats over a million dollars less collectively . 
 

MrBear12      ( Date: 16-Jun-2024 10:31) Posted: These are punters hoping the exit price will be raised substantially. Several are on this forum. There are some GE shareholders who sold above the offer price. They immediately realise their investment slightly above offer price. Others hold on hoping for higher price. I would just accept the offer price, like those u said. Echoes      ( Date: 15-Jun-2024 21:20) Posted: GE has been trading at $26+ since the takeover announcement on 10 May 24 . Two things I cannot understand : 1) Who are the people buying up GE at $26+ ? Are they betting that OCBC will up the takeover price ? It cannot be OCBC buying because under the takeover rules , OCBC will have to make announcements if they do the purchasing for which they have not done so .  2) There are already existing GE shareholders who have accepted OCBC' s offer , at $25.60 . Why do these shareholders elect to have OCBC aquire them at $25.60 , instead of selling them in the open market for $26 + ??  Anyone knows ?

 

These are punters hoping the exit price will be raised substantially. Several are on this forum.

There are some GE shareholders who sold above the offer price. They immediately realise their investment slightly above offer price. Others hold on hoping for higher price. I would just accept the offer price, like those u said.

Echoes      ( Date: 15-Jun-2024 21:20) Posted: GE has been trading at $26+ since the takeover announcement on 10 May 24 . Two things I cannot understand : 1) Who are the people buying up GE at $26+ ? Are they betting that OCBC will up the takeover price ? It cannot be OCBC buying because under the takeover rules , OCBC will have to make announcements if they do the purchasing for which they have not done so .  2) There are already existing GE shareholders who have accepted OCBC' s offer , at $25.60 . Why do these shareholders elect to have OCBC aquire them at $25.60 , instead of selling them in the open market for $26 + ??  Anyone knows ?

 

GE has been trading at $26+ since the takeover announcement on 10 May 24 .

Two things I cannot understand :
1) Who are the people buying up GE at $26+ ? Are they betting that OCBC will up the takeover price ? It cannot be OCBC buying because under the takeover rules , OCBC will have to make announcements if they do the purchasing for which they have not done so . 

2) There are already existing GE shareholders who have accepted OCBC' s offer , at $25.60 . Why do these shareholders elect to have OCBC aquire them at $25.60 , instead of selling them in the open market for $26 + ?? 

Anyone knows ?




 

 

DBS Group  plans to boost assets under management for its wealth business to S$500 billion by the end of 2026, said the unit&rsquo s head, as the top Singaporean bank bets on robust inflows into the country. Wealth assets at DBS grew 23 per cent to a record S$365 billion last year, as Singapore benefitted from strong inflows of wealth into Asia due to its relative political stability, low taxes, and policies favourable for setting up family offices and trusts. DBS is also aiming to double the number of wealthy clients with assets worth at least S$1 million and above by end-2026, he noted, adding the bank grew its affluent and high-net-worth clients by more than 50 per cent over the last two years. The state of New York will receive US$44 million of the settlement amount, which must be paid in four installments over three years.

aragosta      ( Date: 12-Jun-2024 21:51) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---

 

US May Consumer Prices Rise 3.3% Y/Y Est. 3.4%
Ranjeetha Pakiam

MrBear12      ( Date: 12-Jun-2024 12:51) Posted: watch tonite for clues in us Newcomer19707016      ( Date: 12-Jun-2024 12:50) Posted: Still holding ocbc shares hoping price will be higher in coming days

 

watch tonite for clues in us

Newcomer19707016      ( Date: 12-Jun-2024 12:50) Posted: Still holding ocbc shares hoping price will be higher in coming days

 

Still holding ocbc shares hoping price will be higher in coming days

 

Ocbc had been dropping for few days already. The target of $15.20 is far reached