Bumitama Agri    Last:1.47    -0.03

bumitama

Thanks for the advice, that was what i thought so too, 0.78 seems to be a very strong support. With last friday good performance report, and hopefully an increase in cpo in the coming days, this might see a good increase in price.

 

Rally will be started on Monday so long as 78 is supported.

Market worry a crash in U.S. Market after Germany sharp drop 1.8% in the afternoon. However, U.S. Dow recover mostly early loss and Germany index all recover half.

So, bumitama should go up on Monday. Cpo and soy oil price falling has flatten. Hopefully start to recover from here. North and South America planted too many soy bean affecting the price still 50% lower than the peak and still stay at low side.

smalltimeplayer      ( Date: 25-Feb-2017 19:18) Posted: From what i saw, it went up initially then it dropped, but at the same time, loads of counters dropped in the afternoon, wondering if its still good to enter? Looking for mid term gains.

 

From what i saw, it went up initially then it dropped, but at the same time, loads of counters dropped in the afternoon, wondering if its still good to enter? Looking for mid term gains. 

 

Bro, if I'm not mistaken from the release is in the morning instead of after market? Yet market respond opposite way.

smalltimeplayer      ( Date: 25-Feb-2017 17:45) Posted: Friday after closing, Bumitama Agri announced a 80% increased in gross profit, which is quite expected considering the large increased in yield in 2016. Is it time for price to break $0.86?

 

2.7 eps in 4th quarter, if assume the next year maintain same in every quarter, it will be 10.4 cents. It will be a impressive PE of 7.3. The gross margin is almost double compared to golden Agri and 50% of indofood Agri. With such margin even at current cpo price they still can deliver impressive result.

Big buy on this counter.

smalltimeplayer      ( Date: 25-Feb-2017 17:45) Posted: Friday after closing, Bumitama Agri announced a 80% increased in gross profit, which is quite expected considering the large increased in yield in 2016. Is it time for price to break $0.86?

 

Friday after closing, Bumitama Agri announced a 80% increased in gross profit, which is quite expected considering the large increased in yield in 2016. Is it time for price to break $0.86?

 

Cheap : PE 10X
HIGH GROWTH..YOUNG PLANTED TREES.
CPO PRICE TREND UP.
INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS INCLUDES TEMASEK.
Tgt price :1.20....(uob&vickers)

 

Substantial Shareholders	Number of shares held	Percent of shares held
Wellpoint Pacific Holdings Ltd	903,157,774	51.45%
IOI Corporation Berhad	556,672,070	31.71%
BNP Paribas, Private & Investment Banking Investments	17,730,400	1.01%
Temasek Holdings (Private) Limited	14,408,000	0.82%
Fullerton Lux Funds - Asian Small Cap Equities	11,488,000	0.65%

 

Q4 results shld be very good..
High growth plantation co..
Temasek is one of the shareholder..
Good luck

 

Poised for strong earnings rebound. Anticipated rebound in the group&rsquo s fresh fruit bunches (FFB) yields should drive Bumitama Agri (BAL) 2H16 earnings 44% higher than 1H16. We expect the group&rsquo s earnings to continue to expand at 20% CAGR between FY16F and FY19F, driven by a 9% expansion in crude palm oil (CPO) production over the same period. In this report, we reiterate our BUY call on the counter with a significant c.24% potential upside to our revised TP. At the current price, we believe there is an excessive discount placed on the counter&rsquo s low liquidity.

Expect strong 4Q16. BAL reported 3Q16 earnings of Rp206.4bn (+29% y-o-y +92% q-o-q), in line with Rp203bn-Rp216bn range we anticipated. This brought 9M16 earnings to Rp543.5bn (+24% y-o-y), representing 64%/69% of our/consensus full year expectations.The 25% sequential rebound in CPO output (-8% y-o-y) to 167.4k MT was not as strong as anticipated, as BAL did not procure enough external FFB to cover for the internal shortfall. However we understand output has rebounded strongly from October 2016, hence reducing the need for external FFB. 3Q16 CPO ASP expanded by 1% q-o-q (+16% y-o-y) to Rp7,823/kg, &ndash 10% below benchmark Astra Agro Lestari&rsquo s ASP due to dilution from forward sales. We trimmed FY16F/17F earnings by 3%/4% to account for slightly lower CPO sales volume forecasts.

Drop in planting not impacting volume growth. Aggressive expansion in FY05-13 has kept BAL&rsquo s tree-age profile younger relative to peers. This is forecast to deliver 11% CAGR in FFB output (including smallholder estates) between FY16F and FY19F.

 

Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)         BUY

Price/Tgt: S$0.84/1.30         Mkt Cap: US$1.1b         Avg Daily Val: US$0.6m         1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$1.06/S$0.67

1Q16: Production affected by dry weather Mitigated by higher OER

What' s News

·         Bumitama Agri (BAL) released its 1Q16 production data.  For 1Q16, BAL reported a total FFB nucleus production of 313,887 tonnes (-7.9% yoy, -37.1% qoq) and total CPO production of 152,995 tonnes

Production Summary

Year to 31 Dec	1Q15	4Q15	1Q16	Qoq chg	Yoy chg
	(Rpb)	(Rpb)	(Rpb)	(%)	(%)
Production(' 000 tonnes)
FFB	487.8	714.6	452.6	(36.7)	(7.2)
- nucleus	340.8	499.2	313.9	(37.1)	(7.9)
- plasma	147.0	215.4	138.8	(35.6)	(5.6)
FFB external	205.7	265.4	205.6	(22.6)	(0.1)
CPO	160.4	222.1	155.0	(30.2)	(3.4)
PK	30.6	43.2	32.8	(24.2)	7.3
Productivity
FFB Yield (tonne/ha)	4.1	5.1	3.1	(39.2)	(24.4)
OER (%)	23.3	22.4	23.4	4.5	0.4

Source: BAL

Comment

·         BAL&rsquo s 1Q16 production declined was one of the sharpest due to the dry weather in 2015. However, relatively to peers its yoy declined was not as severe thanks to the additional new mature areas (12% of mature area as at end-15) and also large areas enter into the prime production age (17% of prime area).

·         CPO production dropped at smaller quantum as BAL still managed to take in the similar FFB volume from third party. CPO production only dropped by 30.2% yoy and -3.4% qoq.

·         On positive note, BAL delivered better OER in 1Q16 of 23.4% yoy and qoq. This comes as a positive surprise give higher external FFB processed in 1Q16 (31% of total production vs 1Q15: 30% and 4Q15: 27%).

 

FFB Production  Source: BAL

CPO Production  Source: BAL

 

Recommendation

Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.30, based on 15x 2017F PE.  BAL will outperform its peers in term of production for 2016 with a mid-single digit growth as the dry weather impact is mitigated by young age profile, large addition from new mature areas and consistently deliver higher OER, which attributable to its hands-on estate management. 




Regards,
Leow Huey Chuen
GL: 603-2147 1988/DL: 603- 2147 1990
Email:  [email protected]

 

N perhaps take a look at this one too.  But already up > 10% last two days. 

Qanghoo      ( Date: 22-Mar-2016 15:47) Posted: Wah, this one like shiok shiok up n up ..... Qanghoo      ( Date: 21-Mar-2016 17:16) Posted: Chng kay on this table today - up 5c, best of the agri stocks.

 

Wah, this one like shiok shiok up n up .....

Qanghoo      ( Date: 21-Mar-2016 17:16) Posted: Chng kay on this table today - up 5c, best of the agri stocks.

 

Chng kay on this table today - up 5c, best of the agri stocks. 

 

Think this one kena triple witched today.  4.59 pm, some trades done at 75c.  Matched at 72.5 at close. 

 

 

This stock is coming back. watch for it tomorrow !!!

The EL Nino hot weather will cause a lower supply of palm this yr.

Indonesian palm counters have started running last week. 

This week, singapore' s ones may follow..

 

 

Now $1.235. Let' s go for the uptrend train, everyone.

 

Yes. From $1.195 to $1.225. I believe it will up to $1.29 since momentum bound back. Let' s take the ride together.

 

It will uptrend like YZJ very soon. Line going to cross up soon. can up to $1.26 to $1.29 in short term.