Japfa   

Japfa IPO 15 August

A very strong stock.

 

 

Last:0.62      Vol:684k        +0.015

reaching target soon 66.5c 

dyodd gd luck

ozone2002      ( Date: 04-Mar-2016 10:36) Posted: Last:0.535     Vol:1773k     +0.005            Moving slowly but surely MY TP is book value of 66.5c gd luck dyodd ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Mar-2016 15:15) Posted:   Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01            good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd BUY Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39) Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside) Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery Where we differ: No comparison available Growth drivers intact 4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations of US$44m Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time, the group continued to deliver steady contribution from poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m (-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q). Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA (excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses) CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income. Valuation: Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY rating for the counter is reiterated. Key Risks to Our View: Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair value, and vice versa.

 

moving...

 

 

Last:0.595      Vol:809k        -0.015

nearing book value.. Gd luck DYODD 

ozone2002      ( Date: 14-Mar-2016 18:40) Posted: Last:0.565      Vol:2355k        +0.01 reaching Book value soon

 

Any news if there would be dividend for this stock?  Was told in the FY 2015 report that it will be announced during AGM.

 

A nice trendy stock.

 

 

Last:0.565      Vol:2355k        +0.01

reaching Book value soon

 

Last:0.535     Vol:1773k     +0.005           

Moving slowly but surely

MY TP is book value of 66.5c

gd luck dyodd

ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Mar-2016 15:15) Posted:   Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01            good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd BUY Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39) Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside) Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery Where we differ: No comparison available Growth drivers intact 4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations of US$44m Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time, the group continued to deliver steady contribution from poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m (-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q). Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA (excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses) CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm production capacity in China by constructing another five farm hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by population growth and rising per capita income. Valuation: Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY rating for the counter is reiterated. Key Risks to Our View: Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair value, and vice versa. ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c

 

IMO, pennies tend to be irrational and subjected to BB movements usually. Not too sure if I wanna go all fundamentals on this particular stock.

 

analyst are suck, nvr believe them, a analyst from nextinsight say that resource prima tg px 29c, when it was something trading at 15c, today it is just 4c.

u trust them with a spinch of salt. They always behind the curve and look backward when the mkt is driving forwrd.

u drivr car look back dont see front, and see what happen?

 

  Last:0.515     Vol:2060k     +0.01           

good to see this going up, from the low 40c when 1st introduced. Targetting it to hit book value of 66.5c Gd luck dyodd

BUY

Last Traded Price: S$0.51 (STI : 2,682.39)

Price Target : S$0.90 (78% upside)

Potential Catalyst: Consistent quarterly earnings delivery

Where we differ: No comparison available

Growth drivers intact

4Q15 earnings ahead of expectations. Excluding changes in

fair value of biological assets (net of tax) and one off gain from

bonds buyback, the group posted 4Q15 net earnings of

US$34m (+227% y-o-y +141% q-o-q) &ndash substantially ahead of

US$14.5m that was expected. For the year, Japfa&rsquo s core net

profit came in at US$64m (+11% y-o-y) against expectations

of US$44m

Japfa Comfeed delivered strong results. 4Q15 EBITDA of

US$65m (+93% y-o-y -2% q-o-q) indicated better-thanexpected

ASP for both DOC and broilers. At the same time,

the group continued to deliver steady contribution from

poultry feed business, despite lower than expected 3.301k MT

of output &ndash against our forecast of 3.641m MT. The strong

results from Japfa Comfeed were partly offset by sequentially

weaker contribution from Vietnam, Myanmar and India

operations, which collectively booked 4Q15 EBITDA of US$7m

(-47% y-o-y -11% q-o-q).

Growth drivers intact. Japfa is forecast to book EBITDA

(excluding biological asset gains/loss and FX gains/losses)

CAGR of 23% between FY15 and FY18F &ndash mainly driven by

higher dairy volumes. Japfa intends to double dairy farm

production capacity in China by constructing another five farm

hubs in Inner Mongolia. In the Animal Protein segment, we

expect Japfa&rsquo s combined regional DOC output to expand less

aggressively by 6% CAGR over the same period, given curbs in

DOC capacity. Demand will continue to be driven by

population growth and rising per capita income.

Valuation:

Our SOP-based TP (pegged to forward EV/EBITDA) is

unchanged at S$0.90. Japfa Comfeed will remain the largest

contributor, although the group&rsquo s Dairy segment will

increasingly have a more meaningful contribution. Our BUY

rating for the counter is reiterated.

Key Risks to Our View:

Japfa&rsquo s share price is driven by DOC, broiler and China raw

milk price movements and to a certain extent, by USD/IDR

exchange rate. A strong recovery in the group&rsquo s ASP and/or

Rupiah would boost Japfa&rsquo s share price higher than our fair

value, and vice versa.

ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.

 

For partial profits now.

 

dont believe what dbs v recommends.... they projected .90... above ipo price.  i doubt so given it being overpriced from the start...

spore1      ( Date: 06-Jan-2016 23:11) Posted: Japfa may cont to head further North. http://sporeshare.blog   spot.sg/2016/01/japfa.html

 

Japfa may cont to head further North.

http://sporeshare.blog   spot.sg/2016/01/japfa.html

 

Technically, this stock looks bullish

I will put it in my watchlist to look for an entry signal.

 

 

mgmt not so great.... high cost of operation

ozone2002      ( Date: 03-Dec-2015 13:28) Posted: Dbs target price at 90c very bullish. Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.

 

Dbs target price at 90c very bullish.

Believe this can run up to book value of 66.5c

ozone2002      ( Date: 02-Jul-2015 11:23) Posted: Japfa price at all time low @ 40c. Facts 2015 BV is 56.9c, PE expected to be single digit in 2016. Looks like a good entry point gd luck dyodd Light at the end of the tunnel?   FY15F/16F earnings cut by 29%/37% on reduced broiler/DOC ASP cuts in volume   Expect weaker y-o-y Indonesia contribution in 2H15 on oversupply concerns but proposed cut among industry players is a first step in tackling DOC oversupply   Impact from breeding losses is diminishing, given low base, but other segments&rsquo contributions are growing   HOLD call maintained with lower TP of S$0.46 Cutting forecasts. We made further cuts to FY15F/16F earnings by 29% and 37%, on lowered expectations for both live broiler and day-old chick (DOC) prices YTD. We cut FY15F/16F broiler ASP by 4%/8% to Rp14,790/Rp15,000 per kg, and cut FY15F/16F DOC ASP by 12%/16% to Rp3,958/Rp4,015 per bird. We also tempered our expectations on FY16F sales volumes for both broilers (-2%) and DOC (-2%), mainly to reflect early retirement of parent stock (PS) since late last year and culling on unhatched eggs (industry-wide) YTD. While FY15F capex was unchanged at US$192m, we lowered FY16F capex by 21% to US$210m to conserve cash. Diminishing y-o-y impact from JPFA. These revisions cut JPFA&rsquo s FY15F/16F EBITDA by 12%/24%. Our previous forecasts had assumed that the industry had started culling their PS early this year &ndash which should have resulted in higher ASP. This did not happen, while the Rupiah and purchasing power continued to weaken YTD. The impact is less significant on y-o-y basis as it was already coming from a loss, while China Dairy' s contribution continues growing. A 23% cut in Parent Stock (PS) could boost profits. According to Tempo (a weekly magazine), Indonesia&rsquo s poultry players had in Jun- 15 agreed to cut 8m PS &ndash representing c.23% of total population &ndash post post-Lebaran in an effort to stem the precipitous drop in DOC prices. While there remains a debate as to which players should undertake a bigger share of the cut, the resultant impact could well tackle the oversupply situation and boost prices through next year. But uncertainties still linger with regards to weakening purchasing power, which may necessitate a deeper cut. Based on preliminary sensitivity, a 23% cut on Japfa&rsquo s PS would lift Japfa Limited&rsquo s FY15F/16F earnings by 33%/19% on the assumption that DOC and broiler ASP would recover by 5% y-o-y (i.e. still less than inflation). HOLD call maintained. Employing SOP methodology, our TP is cut to S$0.46 &ndash implying c.15% upside. We imputed a steep DOC price drop post-Lebaran &ndash though less severe than 2014, given ongoing industry-wide 30% cut in hatched eggs YTD. Upside catalyst will be triggered if proposed 23% cut in PS industry-wide is implemented.

 

Japfa at 50c vs book value of 66.5c FY16. Still some upside 

Gd luck DYODD 

 

 

another dead one....

spore1      ( Date: 18-Nov-2015 12:21) Posted: Japfa rally.Top form going up spore1      ( Date: 03-Nov-2015 21:27) Posted: It could be BB's are pushing up the price.Tdy vol is high may cont to move up to test 50 cents