Seatrium    Last:0.091   -

SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.

The Worse is over. After a few more strokes, the forward march will continue.

 

Whatever the case, the bottom line is how utilisation and charter rates translate into the demand for drill ships. At the moment, the demand is picking up rapidly. So, you don't have to waste your time looking at so many variables, just look at the demand will do, it reflects the interaction of all the variables

MANFREDTMK      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 16:43) Posted: The historical charter rates for drill ships average around $180k to $550k at the rare extreme. For instance, in 2006, the average day rate is $180k. The normal range is $200k to $350k. Your figure of $750k to $1m is highly exaggerated. chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:36) Posted: The chartered rate is so low, do you know 2017-2018, utilisation rate and chartered rate were much higher. drill ship used to be 750k to 1 mio day rate in 2006-2010 which trigger the order book. These are not good news at all. No earning money, no contracts mean burning money daily. Keppel o&m 5.5bil order book merely breakeven. Sembmar 1.4bil burn cash only

 

The historical charter rates for drill ships average around $180k to $550k at the rare extreme. For instance, in 2006, the average day rate is $180k. The normal range is $200k to $350k.
Your figure of $750k to $1m is highly exaggerated.

chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:36) Posted: The chartered rate is so low, do you know 2017-2018, utilisation rate and chartered rate were much higher. drill ship used to be 750k to 1 mio day rate in 2006-2010 which trigger the order book. These are not good news at all. No earning money, no contracts mean burning money daily. Keppel o&m 5.5bil order book merely breakeven. Sembmar 1.4bil burn cash only. kkhhoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:16) Posted: Yes, there are some good news, but not SCM but industry. The drill ship utilisation rate up from 60% to 75% in a year. the rental rate average is 180K/day to 250K/day from a year ago as well as jackup rig. The inquiry for the related equipment, more than 100% compare to a year ago. This trend will keep going up as long as the oil price can maintain USD60/barrel and above. The situation now is very different compare to last year. Whether this will convert to SCM contract? I believe when the industry is booming, while so many shipyard either closed or reduce their size. No reason SCM will not get the order as we are limited supply now. Unless it really suck or no credibility or near on going to bankrupt.  For the losing money, could you tell me any shipyard or construction who got their order < = 2020 are earning money? We all know that raising in cost on raw materials/ labour/ transportation/ electricity. It is not only SCM issue alone. Perhaps no order actually is an advantages for SCM now? As the orders have no profit at all

 

I partially agreed with you, it may be happen like Container ship in 1 year. but the company which may achieve that will be transocean instead of SCM.

hen, we shall know that oil and gas usage is different. Oil is mainly for transportations, Gas is for electric power generation and Winter Heating. Drill ship and Semisub are for deep sea drilling for oil only. Gas is available at shallow water which gas well at shallow water was abandoned past decades due to high cost in storage and transportation and boomed now, that' s why a lot of platform and jacketting projects in region, unfortunately, as i mentioned before, Keppel O& M and SCM are no longer price competitive to compete with other shipyards in region for shallow water related offshore constructions.

With the shale oil and gas in US which crude oil production are ramping out fast in US now when oil price is 80 plus, i really doubt if Oil price will be up further, plus Iran is selling crude oil to China now which was restricted previously due to US and Europe punishment. So the world is not really lacking of Crude Oil but Natural gas, especially in Europe for this winter heating and electric generation purpose. So there is really no demand for deep water rigs and construction ships in current market. SCM mentioned move to Green is nonsense as well since there is not advantage when compete with regional shipyards especially, windfarm is built at shallow water, Taiwan Wind farm biggest contracts for substation platforms contract already awarded to PTSC in vietnam, SCM has no related track record at all, so once vietnam completed this substation platforms, they may be the only one having such track record in region.

Furthermore, i limit my tp of 4-5cents is till 1Q 2022 only. I believe Merge deal will come in around this period. no like what you said " in 1 day" or 10 years may happen once and may not happen as well.

 

kkhhoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:59) Posted: Yes Is true, I were work in a deep sea drill rig with 1m/day in 2010. It all depend on oil price and the supply. after 2008 oil boom, the oil rig over supply and the oil price slip. from 2014 until now, a lot of offshore oil rigs have been abandon or cold/warm stack. if the oil price is high enough to support, this rental will come back very fast when the utilisation is full. obviously, USD80/day is enough to support the exploration already. And expected the oil price will continue to rise due to reduced dilling activity (other than middle east) in the last few years. So no doubt that the rig rental and utilisation will be continue rising. Just like the container ship now. Die for 6 years,  earn back 10 years profit within 1 year Do you agree with me?  chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:36) Posted: The chartered rate is so low, do you know 2017-2018, utilisation rate and chartered rate were much higher. drill ship used to be 750k to 1 mio day rate in 2006-2010 which trigger the order book. These are not good news at all. No earning money, no contracts mean burning money daily. Keppel o&m 5.5bil order book merely breakeven. Sembmar 1.4bil burn cash only

 

Kids like you should be banned from this forum.

stanleytay      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:06) Posted: Mental case getting mad.. better run. Ckmpd, you can win this thread. I dont really care. But do rem to see a doc ckmpd1      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:01) Posted: who asked you to read

 

Another potential mental case up.. said short b4 MGO, then after that said dont take his words for real here. I get you.

weekaykee      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:23) Posted: Kids should be banned from this forum. stanleytay      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:06) Posted: Mental case getting mad.. better run. Ckmpd, you can win this thread. I dont really care. But do rem to see a do

 

Mental case getting mad.. better run. Ckmpd, you can win this thread. I dont really care. But do rem to see a doc

ckmpd1      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:01) Posted: who asked you to read? ahboy8      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:00) Posted: What i trying to say, feel free to share. Problem is, your sharing is always just words and talk, no facts. I don' t see any facts from you so far. Only thing i saw from all previous post, negative comment and commenting about how this will go 5,4,3c when MGO end. Today is already 16 Nov, just a little drop, u came in again with your negative comment with no facts again. Since you so good at just talking, why don' t talk and show us some counter that it will only go up

 

who asked you to read?

ahboy8      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 15:00) Posted: What i trying to say, feel free to share. Problem is, your sharing is always just words and talk, no facts. I don' t see any facts from you so far. Only thing i saw from all previous post, negative comment and commenting about how this will go 5,4,3c when MGO end. Today is already 16 Nov, just a little drop, u came in again with your negative comment with no facts again. Since you so good at just talking, why don' t talk and show us some counter that it will only go up? ckmpd1      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:53) Posted: If you dont like to read other opinions, I suggest you stop reading those you dont like to read.  This forum is for sharing experiences and opinions.  No one is compelled to come in to rea

 

What i trying to say, feel free to share. Problem is, your sharing is always just words and talk, no facts. I don' t see any facts from you so far. Only thing i saw from all previous post, negative comment and commenting about how this will go 5,4,3c when MGO end. Today is already 16 Nov, just a little drop, u came in again with your negative comment with no facts again. Since you so good at just talking, why don' t talk and show us some counter that it will only go up?

ckmpd1      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:53) Posted: If you dont like to read other opinions, I suggest you stop reading those you dont like to read.  This forum is for sharing experiences and opinions.  No one is compelled to come in to read ahboy8      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:51) Posted: Seriously since you are so negative about this counter, why don' t you just stop coming into this topic. You are wasting everyone time and data reading your negative comment. I think we will appreciate more constructive comment to better improve our view on this counter so to decide on the next move. Not your kind of, always negative comment with no facts.

 

Yes Is true, I were work in a deep sea drill rig with 1m/day in 2010. It all depend on oil price and the supply. after 2008 oil boom, the oil rig over supply and the oil price slip. from 2014 until now, a lot of offshore oil rigs have been abandon or cold/warm stack. if the oil price is high enough to support, this rental will come back very fast when the utilisation is full. obviously, USD80/day is enough to support the exploration already. And expected the oil price will continue to rise due to reduced dilling activity (other than middle east) in the last few years. So no doubt that the rig rental and utilisation will be continue rising. Just like the container ship now. Die for 6 years,  earn back 10 years profit within 1 year

Do you agree with me? 

chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:36) Posted: The chartered rate is so low, do you know 2017-2018, utilisation rate and chartered rate were much higher. drill ship used to be 750k to 1 mio day rate in 2006-2010 which trigger the order book. These are not good news at all. No earning money, no contracts mean burning money daily. Keppel o&m 5.5bil order book merely breakeven. Sembmar 1.4bil burn cash only. kkhhoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:16) Posted: Yes, there are some good news, but not SCM but industry. The drill ship utilisation rate up from 60% to 75% in a year. the rental rate average is 180K/day to 250K/day from a year ago as well as jackup rig. The inquiry for the related equipment, more than 100% compare to a year ago. This trend will keep going up as long as the oil price can maintain USD60/barrel and above. The situation now is very different compare to last year. Whether this will convert to SCM contract? I believe when the industry is booming, while so many shipyard either closed or reduce their size. No reason SCM will not get the order as we are limited supply now. Unless it really suck or no credibility or near on going to bankrupt.  For the losing money, could you tell me any shipyard or construction who got their order < = 2020 are earning money? We all know that raising in cost on raw materials/ labour/ transportation/ electricity. It is not only SCM issue alone. Perhaps no order actually is an advantages for SCM now? As the orders have no profit at all

 

If you dont like to read other opinions, I suggest you stop reading those you dont like to read.  This forum is for sharing experiences and opinions.  No one is compelled to come in to read

ahboy8      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:51) Posted: Seriously since you are so negative about this counter, why don' t you just stop coming into this topic. You are wasting everyone time and data reading your negative comment. I think we will appreciate more constructive comment to better improve our view on this counter so to decide on the next move. Not your kind of, always negative comment with no facts.

 

Seriously since you are so negative about this counter, why don' t you just stop coming into this topic. You are wasting everyone time and data reading your negative comment. I think we will appreciate more constructive comment to better improve our view on this counter so to decide on the next move. Not your kind of, always negative comment with no facts.

 

The chartered rate is so low, do you know 2017-2018, utilisation rate and chartered rate were much higher. drill ship used to be 750k to 1 mio day rate in 2006-2010 which trigger the order book. These are not good news at all. No earning money, no contracts mean burning money daily. Keppel o&m 5.5bil order book merely breakeven. Sembmar 1.4bil burn cash only.

kkhhoo      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 14:16) Posted: Yes, there are some good news, but not SCM but industry. The drill ship utilisation rate up from 60% to 75% in a year. the rental rate average is 180K/day to 250K/day from a year ago as well as jackup rig. The inquiry for the related equipment, more than 100% compare to a year ago. This trend will keep going up as long as the oil price can maintain USD60/barrel and above. The situation now is very different compare to last year. Whether this will convert to SCM contract? I believe when the industry is booming, while so many shipyard either closed or reduce their size. No reason SCM will not get the order as we are limited supply now. Unless it really suck or no credibility or near on going to bankrupt.  For the losing money, could you tell me any shipyard or construction who got their order < = 2020 are earning money? We all know that raising in cost on raw materials/ labour/ transportation/ electricity. It is not only SCM issue alone. Perhaps no order actually is an advantages for SCM now? As the orders have no profit at all. chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:18) Posted: What is good? Show us.

 

Yes, there are some good news, but not SCM but industry. The drill ship utilisation rate up from 60% to 75% in a year. the rental rate average is 180K/day to 250K/day from a year ago as well as jackup rig. The inquiry for the related equipment, more than 100% compare to a year ago. This trend will keep going up as long as the oil price can maintain USD60/barrel and above. The situation now is very different compare to last year.

Whether this will convert to SCM contract? I believe when the industry is booming, while so many shipyard either closed or reduce their size. No reason SCM will not get the order as we are limited supply now. Unless it really suck or no credibility or near on going to bankrupt. 

For the losing money, could you tell me any shipyard or construction who got their order < = 2020 are earning money? We all know that raising in cost on raw materials/ labour/ transportation/ electricity. It is not only SCM issue alone. Perhaps no order actually is an advantages for SCM now? As the orders have no profit at all.

chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:18) Posted: What is good? Show us. pkli899      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:03) Posted: As I said earlier. they choose to show the bad stuff, ignoring the good entirely. Just to oppose la.

 

Chart_expert123.
I' m peace loving.
I don' t like to create hatred.
My bad if u think I have made u angry.
But don' t say I scam la. What scam I did?
Very serious allegation u know.

 

7.9 support --> 8.9 resistance --> 8.2 support --> 8.6-8.7 resistance--> support???

4-5coming after 8.2 and 7.9 by 1Q 2022

 

no say no lah.

don' t scam lah

pkli899      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:28) Posted: Aiyo, said by many and many times liao. No repeat la...... Just like the bad stuff, u all also said many times already. U think company no hope, so be it. Why want to agitate people who believe in the company? Or u so good, want to help us avert losses? Not the case right? So, can leave us alone? chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:18) Posted: What is good? Show us.

 

exactly.  SMM needs a merger.  SMM needs big profitable contracts.  These are hopes.

What if these do not materialise?

bankaiz      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:05) Posted: I feel SMM definitely needs a merger with KOM. Many brothers here also waiting for it to happen, thats why all holding now Temasek not so stupid to let it die after dumping in so much cash also. They will push both sides to make it happen If merger fails, share price of SMM should drop unless they get big contracts / new opportunities for growth Im guessing even in a merger, lets say for they offer a premium price.. doubt it will be high like 12cents as estimated by the IFA.. probably around 9-10cents?

 

Aiyo, said by many and many times liao.
No repeat la......
Just like the bad stuff, u all also said many times already.
U think company no hope, so be it.
Why want to agitate people who believe in the company?
Or u so good, want to help us avert losses?
Not the case right?
So, can leave us alone?

chart_expert123      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:18) Posted: What is good? Show us. pkli899      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:03) Posted: As I said earlier. they choose to show the bad stuff, ignoring the good entirely. Just to oppose la.

 

By now if you still think ckmpd is mentally sound.. then i have nothing to say. I think he need serious help. 

MANFREDTMK      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:16) Posted: The reason why you continue to talk down SM is because you advise others to short at 7.9 cents while you stay on the sidelines and hence doesn't feel the pain. If you match your words with deeds, you will be licking your wounds and won't talk down anymore. The pain will wake you up. Equally, the ones who dare to buy at 8 cents will feel the pain and the joy. Given they are right, they will not stop to educate you MANFREDTMK      ( Date: 16-Nov-2021 13:09) Posted: You changed the topic. You said to Short at 7.9 cents and buy back at 4 to 5 cents. Not short at 30 or 20 cents. Cannot constantly shift the goal poles lah. Like that, forever you are right and those who dares to go in at 8 cents are wron