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There is no place in the world where property prices rise indefinitely without major corrections. Even in historically strong markets like Hong Kong, Singapore, London, and New York, real estate cycles experience downturns due to economic shocks, interest rate hikes, government policies, or external crises.
The idea that tariffs benefit only the U.S. while hurting the rest of the world is also misleading. Tariff wars create inefficiencies, disrupt supply chains, and ultimately raise costs for everyone, including American consumers and businesses. The 2018?2019 U.S.-China trade war, for example, led to higher prices for U.S. importers, retaliatory tariffs on American exports, and slowed global economic growth.
If you're thinking about real estate as an inflation hedge or a long-term investment, it's essential to recognize that while prime locations may appreciate over time, there will always be periods of correction or stagnation. Would you say you're more concerned about global real estate bubbles or broader economic policies affecting wealth distribution?
The idea that tariffs benefit only the U.S. while hurting the rest of the world is also misleading. Tariff wars create inefficiencies, disrupt supply chains, and ultimately raise costs for everyone, including American consumers and businesses. The 2018?2019 U.S.-China trade war, for example, led to higher prices for U.S. importers, retaliatory tariffs on American exports, and slowed global economic growth.
If you're thinking about real estate as an inflation hedge or a long-term investment, it's essential to recognize that while prime locations may appreciate over time, there will always be periods of correction or stagnation. Would you say you're more concerned about global real estate bubbles or broader economic policies affecting wealth distribution?
China?s property market remained sky-high for nearly 20 years before it started to decline in 2019 due to several key factors. The implications of this prolonged boom and subsequent downturn are significant both for China and the world.
Why China?s Property Market Stayed Sky-High for Nearly 20 Years
1. Urbanization & Demographics ? Rapid urbanization from the early 2000s led to massive housing demand as millions of rural residents moved to cities. The government encouraged this as part of economic growth plans.
2. Property as a Store of Wealth ? Chinese households had limited investment options (due to capital controls), so they poured their savings into real estate, driving up prices.
3. Government Policies & Support ? The government often used real estate as an economic driver, offering incentives for developers and allowing easy credit access.
4. Speculative Buying & Leverage ? Many buyers purchased multiple properties, assuming prices would keep rising. Developers took on excessive debt to fund aggressive expansion.
5. Local Government Dependency on Land Sales ? Local governments relied on land sales to fund budgets, creating an incentive to keep land prices high.
6. State-Backed Banking System ? Chinese banks, often state-controlled, kept lending to developers and homebuyers, fueling the property boom.
Why It Started Crashing in 2019
1. Government Crackdowns on Leverage ? The "Three Red Lines" policy (2020) restricted excessive borrowing by developers, squeezing their liquidity.
2. Slowing Economy & Population Trends ? Economic growth slowed, and China?s aging population led to weaker housing demand.
3. Overbuilding & Oversupply ? Developers built more homes than the market could absorb, leading to ghost cities and unsold inventory.
4. Evergrande & Developer Defaults ? Heavily indebted developers like Evergrande collapsed, triggering a confidence crisis in the property market.
5. Weakening Consumer Confidence ? Homebuyers lost trust, causing pre-sales (a major funding source for developers) to decline sharply.
Implications for China
1. Economic Slowdown ? Real estate contributed 25?30% of China?s GDP (directly & indirectly), so the slowdown hit economic growth hard.
2. Local Government Debt Issues ? Since land sales revenue dropped, local governments faced funding shortfalls, risking fiscal crises.
3. Wealth Erosion ? Property values dropping meant household wealth shrank, affecting consumer spending and economic activity.
4. Banking System Risks ? Chinese banks held massive property-related loans, raising concerns over financial stability.
5. Policy Dilemmas ? The government struggled to balance controlling financial risks while preventing a total property market collapse.
Implications for the World
1. Lower Demand for Commodities ? China?s property boom fueled global demand for steel, copper, cement, etc. The slowdown hurt commodity-exporting countries.
2. Impact on Global Growth ? As China?s economy slowed, global growth projections weakened, especially for economies linked to China.
3. Foreign Investor Losses ? Global investors with exposure to Chinese developers and bonds saw heavy losses.
4. Trade & Supply Chain Effects ? A weaker Chinese economy affected global trade and demand for foreign goods and services.
5. Shift in Global Capital Flows ? The property crisis made Chinese investors move more capital abroad, affecting real estate and financial markets in places like Singapore, the US, and Australia.
What?s Next?
China is trying to stabilize the property market through policy easing, interest rate cuts, and liquidity support, but structural issues (like oversupply and demographics) mean real estate may never return to its past boom levels. The government may have to shift focus to new growth drivers like technology, manufacturing upgrades, and domestic consumption.
if the crashed happened again in sg we will have to bring back money from money invested in india
Why China?s Property Market Stayed Sky-High for Nearly 20 Years
1. Urbanization & Demographics ? Rapid urbanization from the early 2000s led to massive housing demand as millions of rural residents moved to cities. The government encouraged this as part of economic growth plans.
2. Property as a Store of Wealth ? Chinese households had limited investment options (due to capital controls), so they poured their savings into real estate, driving up prices.
3. Government Policies & Support ? The government often used real estate as an economic driver, offering incentives for developers and allowing easy credit access.
4. Speculative Buying & Leverage ? Many buyers purchased multiple properties, assuming prices would keep rising. Developers took on excessive debt to fund aggressive expansion.
5. Local Government Dependency on Land Sales ? Local governments relied on land sales to fund budgets, creating an incentive to keep land prices high.
6. State-Backed Banking System ? Chinese banks, often state-controlled, kept lending to developers and homebuyers, fueling the property boom.
Why It Started Crashing in 2019
1. Government Crackdowns on Leverage ? The "Three Red Lines" policy (2020) restricted excessive borrowing by developers, squeezing their liquidity.
2. Slowing Economy & Population Trends ? Economic growth slowed, and China?s aging population led to weaker housing demand.
3. Overbuilding & Oversupply ? Developers built more homes than the market could absorb, leading to ghost cities and unsold inventory.
4. Evergrande & Developer Defaults ? Heavily indebted developers like Evergrande collapsed, triggering a confidence crisis in the property market.
5. Weakening Consumer Confidence ? Homebuyers lost trust, causing pre-sales (a major funding source for developers) to decline sharply.
Implications for China
1. Economic Slowdown ? Real estate contributed 25?30% of China?s GDP (directly & indirectly), so the slowdown hit economic growth hard.
2. Local Government Debt Issues ? Since land sales revenue dropped, local governments faced funding shortfalls, risking fiscal crises.
3. Wealth Erosion ? Property values dropping meant household wealth shrank, affecting consumer spending and economic activity.
4. Banking System Risks ? Chinese banks held massive property-related loans, raising concerns over financial stability.
5. Policy Dilemmas ? The government struggled to balance controlling financial risks while preventing a total property market collapse.
Implications for the World
1. Lower Demand for Commodities ? China?s property boom fueled global demand for steel, copper, cement, etc. The slowdown hurt commodity-exporting countries.
2. Impact on Global Growth ? As China?s economy slowed, global growth projections weakened, especially for economies linked to China.
3. Foreign Investor Losses ? Global investors with exposure to Chinese developers and bonds saw heavy losses.
4. Trade & Supply Chain Effects ? A weaker Chinese economy affected global trade and demand for foreign goods and services.
5. Shift in Global Capital Flows ? The property crisis made Chinese investors move more capital abroad, affecting real estate and financial markets in places like Singapore, the US, and Australia.
What?s Next?
China is trying to stabilize the property market through policy easing, interest rate cuts, and liquidity support, but structural issues (like oversupply and demographics) mean real estate may never return to its past boom levels. The government may have to shift focus to new growth drivers like technology, manufacturing upgrades, and domestic consumption.
if the crashed happened again in sg we will have to bring back money from money invested in india
Like our properties in 1998
If asset prices in Singapore, particularly S-REITs and other key investments, correct drastically after being inflated post-2009 and staying high for over two decades, voters could feel a mix of frustration, betrayal, and financial insecurity.
1. Wealth Effect Reversal ? Many Singaporeans have tied their wealth to property and REITs. A sharp correction would erode perceived and actual wealth, affecting spending confidence and retirement plans.
2. Erosion of Retirement Security ? CPF investments, REIT-heavy portfolios, and property investments could suffer, making many feel their financial planning was undermined.
3. Distrust in Economic Policies ? If voters believe policies fueled excessive asset inflation without adequate risk management, they may blame policymakers for allowing an unsustainable financial environment.
4. Political Backlash ? Rising financial distress could lead to electoral consequences, especially if home values decline while cost of living pressures persist.
5. Market Confidence Shock ? A drastic asset correction might trigger wider economic fears, affecting job security and business investments.
Would you be looking at hedging against this potential risk, or do you see it as an opportunity to buy quality assets at lower valuations?
If asset prices in Singapore, particularly S-REITs and other key investments, correct drastically after being inflated post-2009 and staying high for over two decades, voters could feel a mix of frustration, betrayal, and financial insecurity.
1. Wealth Effect Reversal ? Many Singaporeans have tied their wealth to property and REITs. A sharp correction would erode perceived and actual wealth, affecting spending confidence and retirement plans.
2. Erosion of Retirement Security ? CPF investments, REIT-heavy portfolios, and property investments could suffer, making many feel their financial planning was undermined.
3. Distrust in Economic Policies ? If voters believe policies fueled excessive asset inflation without adequate risk management, they may blame policymakers for allowing an unsustainable financial environment.
4. Political Backlash ? Rising financial distress could lead to electoral consequences, especially if home values decline while cost of living pressures persist.
5. Market Confidence Shock ? A drastic asset correction might trigger wider economic fears, affecting job security and business investments.
Would you be looking at hedging against this potential risk, or do you see it as an opportunity to buy quality assets at lower valuations?
DFI Retail Group is selling its network of Cold Storage and Giant supermarkets in Singapore for $125 million to a Malaysian company Macrovalue.
As part of the deal, Macrovalue will take over 48 Cold Storage stores, 41 Giant stores and also two distribution centres.
Following the sale, DFI will focus on its chain of Guardian and 7-Eleven businesses.
DFI shares extended gains today after the announcement was made during the lunch break. As at 2.30 pm DFI shares were up 12 cents, or 5.33% to trade at U$2.37.
?In today?s environment of rising food costs and inflation, it is essential to leverage scale and operational efficiencies to protect customers from price volatility while maintaining quality and service standard,? says DFI's CEO Scott Price.
The deal is expected to be completed in the second half this year.
As part of the deal, Macrovalue will take over 48 Cold Storage stores, 41 Giant stores and also two distribution centres.
Following the sale, DFI will focus on its chain of Guardian and 7-Eleven businesses.
DFI shares extended gains today after the announcement was made during the lunch break. As at 2.30 pm DFI shares were up 12 cents, or 5.33% to trade at U$2.37.
?In today?s environment of rising food costs and inflation, it is essential to leverage scale and operational efficiencies to protect customers from price volatility while maintaining quality and service standard,? says DFI's CEO Scott Price.
The deal is expected to be completed in the second half this year.
As of now, Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited (DFI), part of the Jardine Matheson Group, has not announced any plans to list its 7-Eleven franchise on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). DFI operates the 7-Eleven convenience stores in several regions, including Singapore, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia, as part of its retail portfolio.
DFI occasionally reorganize or divest parts of their business. Listing 7-Eleven as a separate entity could be a potential strategy to unlock value, but such decisions depend on market conditions and the company&rsquo s broader strategy.
chartistkao3 ( Date: 04-Dec-2024 11:49) Posted:
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Investing in Dairy Farm International (DFI), a unit of the Jardine Group, after its recent restructuring could be compelling for several reasons:
1. Focus on Core Profit Drivers
&bull The restructuring has allowed Dairy Farm to focus on its high-margin core businesses, particularly health and beauty, grocery retail, and convenience stores, while streamlining underperforming segments.
&bull This repositioning could improve operational efficiencies and profitability.
2. Improved Financial Position
&bull Divesting non-core assets and simplifying its portfolio has likely strengthened its balance sheet. A healthier financial position allows DFI to reinvest in growth areas, pay down debt, or increase shareholder returns.
3. Exposure to Asia&rsquo s Growth Markets
&bull Dairy Farm operates in high-growth markets like China, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong. Rising disposable incomes and urbanization trends in these regions could boost retail demand, benefiting its business units.
4. Potential Synergies within Jardine Group
&bull As part of the Jardine Group, DFI can leverage synergies with other group companies, including supply chain advantages, better access to capital, and real estate opportunities.
5. Turnaround Potential
&bull Recent restructuring might signal the start of a turnaround. With new management strategies, DFI could unlock value in underperforming segments, attracting long-term investors seeking growth.
6. Attractive Valuation Post-Restructuring
&bull Restructuring often results in temporary market skepticism, creating opportunities for value investors to buy shares at a discount. If the transformation proves successful, valuations may increase significantly.
7. Dividend Yield and Stability
&bull DFI has a history of paying dividends, appealing to income-focused investors. Post-restructuring, the group may stabilize its cash flows, ensuring consistent payouts.
Risks to Consider:
&bull Execution risk in implementing the restructuring plan.
&bull Market challenges in its operating regions, such as inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions.
&bull Competition from e-commerce and other retailers.
If you believe in the success of the restructuring and the long-term growth of Asian consumer markets, DFI could be a solid addition to a diversified portfolio.
chartistkao3 ( Date: 05-Nov-2024 09:42) Posted:
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Jardine Dairy Farm International Holdings (DFI Retail Group) has faced some challenges, but a turnaround is possible with strategic adjustments. Here are several pathways it could take to revitalize growth and profitability:
1. Streamline Operations and Improve Efficiency
&bull Cost Optimization: DFI could benefit from reducing overhead costs, particularly in high-cost regions. This might involve automation, streamlining logistics, and consolidating resources across stores.
&bull Supply Chain Enhancement: Focusing on enhancing supply chain efficiency, particularly in logistics and inventory management, would help reduce wastage and improve stock availability, leading to better customer satisfaction and cost savings.
2. Focus on Core Markets and Brands
&bull Selective Market Presence: DFI could consider divesting underperforming assets or withdrawing from low-margin markets to focus on areas with higher potential.
&bull Strengthening Key Brands: DFI owns brands like Cold Storage, Wellcome, and Giant. Investing in these brands&rsquo reputations, product offerings, and customer loyalty programs could help cement their presence in profitable markets.
3. Leverage E-commerce and Digital Transformation
&bull Expand Online Sales Channels: Given the shift to online shopping, DFI could boost its e-commerce capabilities, integrating online delivery and curbside pickup options where possible.
&bull Data Analytics: Utilizing data analytics for customer insights can drive targeted marketing and personalized offers, optimizing sales and customer engagement.
4. Enhance Customer Experience
&bull Store Modernization: Revamping store layouts, introducing a wider variety of fresh and organic products, and creating a more engaging in-store experience can attract more foot traffic and enhance brand perception.
&bull Customer Loyalty Programs: Expanding or refining loyalty programs could drive repeat business, especially if these programs reward high-spend and long-term customers.
5. Sustainable Practices and Brand Differentiation
&bull Environmental Initiatives: By adopting sustainable practices, such as reducing plastic usage and sourcing from sustainable farms, DFI can align with consumer preferences for environmental responsibility.
&bull Health and Wellness Focus: With rising demand for healthier food options, DFI could differentiate itself by emphasizing wellness products and introducing more organic, low-sugar, or low-sodium options.
6. Strategic Partnerships and Alliances
&bull Collaborations with Local Producers: Working with local suppliers can reduce logistics costs and appeal to customers looking for fresh, local options.
&bull Tech Partnerships for Retail Innovation: Collaborating with tech firms for innovations like smart carts, cashier-less checkouts, or app-based shopping could streamline the customer experience and attract tech-savvy consumers.
By honing in on these strategies, Jardine Dairy Farm International could potentially stabilize its financials and create a sustainable path forward, even in a competitive retail environment. The focus on efficiency, brand strength, digital transformation, and sustainability could help differentiate DFI in the evolving retail landscape.
MrBear12 ( Date: 05-Nov-2024 09:38) Posted:
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I hope the Keswicks are reading this
chartistkao3 ( Date: 05-Nov-2024 09:29) Posted:
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Jardine Dairy Farm International could enhance its profitability through several key strategies:
1. Operational Efficiency: Streamlining supply chain and logistics could reduce costs. By investing in technology to improve inventory management, automate processes, and optimize delivery routes, Dairy Farm could lower expenses and improve margins.
2. Digital Transformation: Expanding e-commerce capabilities and enhancing digital platforms would meet the rising demand for online grocery shopping. Investing in mobile apps, online marketing, and customer data analytics could drive sales and improve customer loyalty.
3. Product Diversification: Dairy Farm could broaden its product range to include high-margin items, like premium brands, organic foods, or private label products. Offering unique items not readily available elsewhere could also attract a more diverse customer base.
4. Cost Control in Real Estate: Dairy Farm could look to optimize its store locations and formats. By closing or resizing underperforming stores and focusing on smaller, more efficient stores in prime locations, they could reduce rental and operational costs.
5. Sustainability Initiatives: Investing in sustainable practices, like reducing plastic waste or sourcing locally, could align the brand with growing consumer preferences for eco-friendly options. This may not only enhance brand reputation but potentially lower supply chain costs over time.
6. Strengthening Brand Identity: Emphasizing a strong brand message around quality, convenience, or health can help Dairy Farm capture and retain a loyal customer base. Targeted marketing campaigns could highlight unique offerings and engage local markets.
7. Strategic Partnerships: Collaborating with tech companies or local suppliers to leverage their strengths could enhance operational capabilities or lower sourcing costs.
1. Operational Efficiency: Streamlining supply chain and logistics could reduce costs. By investing in technology to improve inventory management, automate processes, and optimize delivery routes, Dairy Farm could lower expenses and improve margins.
2. Digital Transformation: Expanding e-commerce capabilities and enhancing digital platforms would meet the rising demand for online grocery shopping. Investing in mobile apps, online marketing, and customer data analytics could drive sales and improve customer loyalty.
3. Product Diversification: Dairy Farm could broaden its product range to include high-margin items, like premium brands, organic foods, or private label products. Offering unique items not readily available elsewhere could also attract a more diverse customer base.
4. Cost Control in Real Estate: Dairy Farm could look to optimize its store locations and formats. By closing or resizing underperforming stores and focusing on smaller, more efficient stores in prime locations, they could reduce rental and operational costs.
5. Sustainability Initiatives: Investing in sustainable practices, like reducing plastic waste or sourcing locally, could align the brand with growing consumer preferences for eco-friendly options. This may not only enhance brand reputation but potentially lower supply chain costs over time.
6. Strengthening Brand Identity: Emphasizing a strong brand message around quality, convenience, or health can help Dairy Farm capture and retain a loyal customer base. Targeted marketing campaigns could highlight unique offerings and engage local markets.
7. Strategic Partnerships: Collaborating with tech companies or local suppliers to leverage their strengths could enhance operational capabilities or lower sourcing costs.
MrBear12 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 14:58) Posted:
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Shld have started that long ago.
chartistkao3 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 14:08) Posted:
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Time to cut capitaland invest Mapletree pan Asia and capitaland Ascendas and use the money to buy ocbc share
chartistkao3 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 09:58) Posted:
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When an offer is not deemed fair or reasonable in the context of a Singapore Exchange (SGX) listed company, complexity can indeed arise, particularly if it results in a significant reduction of the company&rsquo s free float. Free float refers to the portion of a company&rsquo s shares that are available for trading by the general public, excluding shares held by major stakeholders such as company executives or controlling shareholders.
If a buyout offer or takeover bid undervalues the company, minority shareholders may resist, leading to disagreements and delays in deal completion. When free float drops below a certain threshold (usually 10%), the stock may no longer meet SGX listing requirements, which could result in delisting. This reduces liquidity, making it harder for remaining shareholders to trade their shares.
This situation can lead to further legal, financial, and governance challenges, as regulatory authorities may need to assess whether the offer was conducted fairly.
If a buyout offer or takeover bid undervalues the company, minority shareholders may resist, leading to disagreements and delays in deal completion. When free float drops below a certain threshold (usually 10%), the stock may no longer meet SGX listing requirements, which could result in delisting. This reduces liquidity, making it harder for remaining shareholders to trade their shares.
This situation can lead to further legal, financial, and governance challenges, as regulatory authorities may need to assess whether the offer was conducted fairly.
chartistkao3 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 09:43) Posted:
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In business we do not practice Jia Liao bee management Only big company allow people that do not perform deliver bad earnings or results and get higher pay due to higher cost
chartistkao3 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 09:40) Posted:
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The share was shorted all the way to usd1.71 before it divested its entire stakes in Shanghai listed yong Huu superstores to Miniso for 4.5 billion yuan and removed all its management that are not up to the mark in 2023
chartistkao3 ( Date: 25-Oct-2024 09:35) Posted:
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A short squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted stock experiences a rapid price increase, forcing short sellers to buy shares to cover their positions. This buying pressure can drive the stock price even higher, leading to further losses for short sellers and intensifying the squeeze.
Short sellers bet that a stock&rsquo s price will fall, but if the stock price rises instead, they may be compelled to &ldquo cover&rdquo their shorts to limit their losses, which increases demand for the stock. This cycle of forced buying can lead to sharp price spikes, especially when many short sellers attempt to cover at once.
Short sellers bet that a stock&rsquo s price will fall, but if the stock price rises instead, they may be compelled to &ldquo cover&rdquo their shorts to limit their losses, which increases demand for the stock. This cycle of forced buying can lead to sharp price spikes, especially when many short sellers attempt to cover at once.