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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock

On Noble Group

This should be good news ..

The Company is pleased to announce that the Notes have been fully placed to institutional and/or accredited investors (or their equivalent in jurisdictions outside Singapore).

Pricing and Principal Terms of the Notes The Notes were priced on 6 March 2017 and the principal terms of the Notes are as follows: Aggregate Principal Amount : U.S.$750,000,000 Maturity Date : 9 March 2022

 

No more Liao. TA rely on yourself since I don't have isdn chart.

Daxtheman      ( Date: 07-Mar-2017 01:04) Posted: Early bird, any updates on ISDN analysis? earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 07:19) Posted: So penny stock is also a shell company. Sgx has a lot. From time to time, some bbs or people will borrow shell to run business, 借 壳 上 市 . But how many of them are real, we don't know. So the 3 penny stock all like that. Isdn too in 2012-2013 when penny stock run crazy. I always say stock market is FA TA and experience. Only through experience you can know what old story they want to cook. From time to time generation to generation, people tend to forget and new batch of generation join stock market, so old story still useful. U ask experience people, they know what is going on, just smile and don't want to talk more since they can't ask you to sell since price may in rally mode, ask you to sell miss boat, you blame them. But 1 day something happen free fall till the ground. So no much FA to tell about shell company

 

Oh ya Sabana' s debt to equity also 78%... 

I am only holding Vibrant... not the reit... Sabana also moved up 10+% yesterday.

Thanks bro

ehclim      ( Date: 07-Mar-2017 00:56) Posted: SGX ruling for REIT is not exceeding 40% gearing. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 07-Mar-2017 00:07) Posted: Yes. Actually I don' t know 97% consider high or low.. KepCorp is 70+% SembCorp Ind is 140+% SembCorp Marine is 160+% Any expert can comment?

 

Early bird, any updates on ISDN analysis?

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 07:19) Posted: So penny stock is also a shell company. Sgx has a lot. From time to time, some bbs or people will borrow shell to run business, 借 壳 上 市 . But how many of them are real, we don't know. So the 3 penny stock all like that. Isdn too in 2012-2013 when penny stock run crazy. I always say stock market is FA TA and experience. Only through experience you can know what old story they want to cook. From time to time generation to generation, people tend to forget and new batch of generation join stock market, so old story still useful. U ask experience people, they know what is going on, just smile and don't want to talk more since they can't ask you to sell since price may in rally mode, ask you to sell miss boat, you blame them. But 1 day something happen free fall till the ground. So no much FA to tell about shell company. earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 07:13) Posted: No wonder sound familiar for isdn. This was the 4th penny stock avoid Mas and sgx investigation for speculation from penny to 1 dollar plus. Chart not in ig chart list. Only 2 type of stock not in IG list low cap and penny stock. So it is a penny stock, casino machine. You only can deal with them with TA. Their FA or balance sheet are always the same, flat flat flat. Flat in profit or loss, flat in cash flow generation. Mean? Fake fake fake

 

SGX ruling for REIT is not exceeding 40% gearing.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 07-Mar-2017 00:07) Posted: Yes. Actually I don' t know 97% consider high or low.. KepCorp is 70+% SembCorp Ind is 140+% SembCorp Marine is 160+% Any expert can comment? ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:27) Posted: Based on AR2015, their net gearing was about 97%.

 

Yes. Actually I don' t know 97% consider high or low..

KepCorp is 70+%

SembCorp Ind is 140+%

SembCorp Marine is 160+%

Any expert can comment?

ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:27) Posted: Based on AR2015, their net gearing was about 97%. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:09) Posted: Vibrant' s debt is not considered high...

 

Agree, there are not many options available for them going concern. However, they have to be prudent and manage their cashflow going forward or otherwise they will in for deeper shit.
 

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 23:11) Posted: Bond Issued by Noble. (point 5 added) What are the options open to Noble? Bank borrowing --- interest rate is rising. High cost. May have other restrictions attached. Share placement --- dilution of existing share value. Although the cost is almost zero. Negative impact on sentiment. Bond issue --- fixed cost. Long-term. Not affected by interest rate hike. Strategic Investor/s --- Is there any? Sell assets --- again? Should be last option since commodity price is turning around. So, after all, bond issue by Noble, IMO, is not a bad option, provided Moody is not going to down grade its rating. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 23:07) Posted: Bond Issued by Noble. What are the options open to Noble? Bank borrowing --- interest rate is rising. High cost. May have other restrictions attached. Share placement --- dilution of existing share value. Although the cost is almost zero. Negative impact on sentiment. Bond issue --- fixed cost. Long-term. Not affected by interest rate hike. Strategic Investor/s --- Is there any?   So, after all, bond issue by Noble, IMO, is not a bad option, provided Moody is not going to down grade its rating.

 

Bond Issued by Noble. (point 5 added)

What are the options open to Noble?

1. Bank borrowing --- interest rate is rising. High cost. May have other restrictions attached.
2. Share placement --- dilution of existing share value. Although the cost is almost zero. Negative impact on sentiment.
3. Bond issue --- fixed cost. Long-term. Not affected by interest rate hike.
4. Strategic Investor/s --- Is there any?
5. Sell assets --- again? Should be last option since commodity price is turning around.

So, after all, bond issue by Noble, IMO, is not a bad option, provided Moody is not going to down grade its rating.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 23:07) Posted: Bond Issued by Noble. What are the options open to Noble? Bank borrowing --- interest rate is rising. High cost. May have other restrictions attached. Share placement --- dilution of existing share value. Although the cost is almost zero. Negative impact on sentiment. Bond issue --- fixed cost. Long-term. Not affected by interest rate hike. Strategic Investor/s --- Is there any?   So, after all, bond issue by Noble, IMO, is not a bad option, provided Moody is not going to down grade its rating. ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 22:49) Posted: I saw the broker' s call too and I share the same sentiment. 60% bearish vs 40% bullish.

 

Bond Issued by Noble.

What are the options open to Noble?

1. Bank borrowing --- interest rate is rising. High cost. May have other restrictions attached.
2. Share placement --- dilution of existing share value. Although the cost is almost zero. Negative impact on sentiment.
3. Bond issue --- fixed cost. Long-term. Not affected by interest rate hike.
4. Strategic Investor/s --- Is there any?

 

So, after all, bond issue by Noble, IMO, is not a bad option, provided Moody is not going to down grade its rating.

ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 22:49) Posted: I saw the broker' s call too and I share the same sentiment. 60% bearish vs 40% bullish. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 22:45) Posted: This was the broker' s call issued on monday (today) before market open.. Noble Group Broker:  DBS Group Research Call:  Hold Target price:  23 cents Noble Group' s core loss in the fourth quarter last year was US$118 million (S$167 million), which was worse than expected.     While Noble' s share price has rallied on a potential investment by Sinochem, a further re-rating beyond the current level is unjustified without details over Sinochem' s potential investment and/or a material improvement in free cash-flow generation. It is still too early to ascribe a value to the balance-sheet items which the market has been questioning for the past two years, given the risk that Sinochem may withdraw. Questions still remain over earnings quality and cash flow. Noble is expected to return to profitability this year as it is no longer constrained by the need to preserve liquidity.

 

any insights on avi-tech? cash rich, little debt consistent earnings.

 

I saw the broker' s call too and I share the same sentiment. 60% bearish vs 40% bullish.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 22:45) Posted: This was the broker' s call issued on monday (today) before market open.. Noble Group Broker:  DBS Group Research Call:  Hold Target price:  23 cents Noble Group' s core loss in the fourth quarter last year was US$118 million (S$167 million), which was worse than expected.     While Noble' s share price has rallied on a potential investment by Sinochem, a further re-rating beyond the current level is unjustified without details over Sinochem' s potential investment and/or a material improvement in free cash-flow generation. It is still too early to ascribe a value to the balance-sheet items which the market has been questioning for the past two years, given the risk that Sinochem may withdraw. Questions still remain over earnings quality and cash flow. Noble is expected to return to profitability this year as it is no longer constrained by the need to preserve liquidity.

 

This was the broker' s call issued on monday (today) before market open..

Noble Group

Broker:  DBS Group Research

Call:  Hold

Target price:  23 cents

Noble Group' s core loss in the fourth quarter last year was US$118 million (S$167 million), which was worse than expected.

While Noble' s share price has rallied on a potential investment by Sinochem, a further re-rating beyond the current level is unjustified without details over Sinochem' s potential investment and/or a material improvement in free cash-flow generation.

It is still too early to ascribe a value to the balance-sheet items which the market has been questioning for the past two years, given the risk that Sinochem may withdraw.

Questions still remain over earnings quality and cash flow.

Noble is expected to return to profitability this year as it is no longer constrained by the need to preserve liquidity.

 

Oh,,, almost miss the possibility of head and shoulders... thanks... will take note...

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 19:05) Posted: 40, 45, next 40? I won't say confirm but seem like forming since today gonna blocked again at 40 earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 19:02) Posted: Freight link Hor before change name to vibrant, share price is stagnant. You shall see if this round is head and shoulder forming or not, if this round cannot hit higher than last high, better take profit

 

40, 45, next 40? I won't say confirm but seem like forming since today gonna blocked again at 40

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 19:02) Posted: Freight link Hor before change name to vibrant, share price is stagnant. You shall see if this round is head and shoulder forming or not, if this round cannot hit higher than last high, better take profit. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:09) Posted: Vibrant' s debt is not considered high...

 

Freight link Hor before change name to vibrant, share price is stagnant.

You shall see if this round is head and shoulder forming or not, if this round cannot hit higher than last high, better take profit.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:09) Posted: Vibrant' s debt is not considered high...  ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:01) Posted: Agree, Vibrant NAV is high but their debts are equally high. Thay have invested heavily in China properties.

 

Based on AR2015, their net gearing was about 97%.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:09) Posted: Vibrant' s debt is not considered high...  ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:01) Posted: Agree, Vibrant NAV is high but their debts are equally high. Thay have invested heavily in China properties.

 

Thanks for your views. I had missed the boat to unload my holdings at average price of 30c. I tot it continued to run up the share price until the IB attacked that spoilt my plan.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:06) Posted: 1. range-bounded with slighly downward baised....  2. but these few days looked more like accumulation than distribution...  3. I have no desire to buy for long term at this point of time since no green signal/s.  What I had been doing daily is: a. join the queues to buy at low, sell at high.  b. buy quatity is always slightly more than sell quantity... c. So every round i am making profit and accumulating at the same time.  ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 17:59) Posted: What is your take on Noble? Distribution or accumulation?

 

Vibrant' s debt is not considered high... 

ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 18:01) Posted: Agree, Vibrant NAV is high but their debts are equally high. Thay have invested heavily in China properties. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 12:38) Posted: I don' t hold Sabana.... Vibrant sold properites to Sabana at high price with lease-back arangement. So off course buy the party that is taking the advantage...provided Vibrant will not go into trouble with this. Anyway, Vibrant' s NAV is high.

 

1. range-bounded with slighly downward baised.... 

2. but these few days looked more like accumulation than distribution... 

3. I have no desire to buy for long term at this point of time since no green signal/s. 

What I had been doing daily is:

a. join the queues to buy at low, sell at high. 

b. buy quatity is always slightly more than sell quantity...

c. So every round i am making profit and accumulating at the same time. 

ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 17:59) Posted: What is your take on Noble? Distribution or accumulation? TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 17:47) Posted: 1. Banks have stable closing... as i mentioned yesterday, the longer OCBC can drag, the more likely it is near bottom. 2. Noble continues range-bounded..... made two rounds of sell-buy-sell-buy. 3. Yangzijiang looking tired.... also did a sell-buy-sell..expecting it to consolidate  4. Many penny stocks under SGX watchlist are badly hitted. I am also holding a few.. But small holings only.. no worry (consoling myself).. Good Luck to me.. Frankly speaking, some of them have shown signs of turning-around.. SGX should give them more time.

 

Agree, Vibrant NAV is high but their debts are equally high. Thay have invested heavily in China properties.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 12:38) Posted: I don' t hold Sabana.... Vibrant sold properites to Sabana at high price with lease-back arangement. So off course buy the party that is taking the advantage...provided Vibrant will not go into trouble with this. Anyway, Vibrant' s NAV is high. ehclim      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 12:32) Posted: EB, I think you are referring to their REIT arm, Sabana which has a new SSH. According to filings posted on SGXNet on March 3, e-Shang Redwood (ESR) now holds a 5.01% stake in Sabana REIT. A Chinese developer who also owns sunstantial units in Cambridge REIT.