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We maintain our previous technical BUY (featured on 18 Mar 14) with the same target price of S$0.83 as the stock has gained 3.3% since then. The stock may continue to break out of its Bollinger squeeze as the stock appears to be well supported above its mid Bollinger band with higher comparative trading volume in the last trading session and may trade towards its 100-day EMA. +DI has hooked up and its MACD indicator looks poised to move above its centreline. Protective (trailing) stops could be placed at S$0.735.
...last:$0.770...
Albedo morning show over, come
back to this counter.Going higher
and higher.
cheers.
BUY with a target price of S$0.83 as the stock could break out from its Bollinger squeeze as prices have closed above its mid Bollinger band.
The stock is likely to rebound further should it be able to close above its declining 50-day EMA. Its 14-day Stochastics indicator has formed a bulllish crossover and it has attempted to move above its oversold region. Watch to see if a +DI/-DI crossover could form over the next few trading sessions.
Protective stops could be placed at S$0.71. ...last:$0.755... more
price edging up and volumn also increase.
good time to accumulate more.
Their 3Q PATMI is $12.1 million. BUT if take away one time gain from the sale of Iskandar, $12.1 - $12.9 = $-0.8million
Does it mean is making a loss if we dun consider the one time gain?
Note: In their presentation:
3QFY2014 PATMI included:
?A gain of S$12.9 million from the nomination and assignation of purchases rights for a 25-acre plot of industrial land in Iskandar, Malaysia
?Net foreign exchange loss of S$1.2 million compared with a gain of S$1.7 million in 3QFY2013
what happen, so weak meh.
drop so much.
good post deserve a thumb up not down. don't be so naughty.
looks like a gem to me.. great biz
TAT HONG HOLDINGS (TAT SP)
Key takeaways from investor?s meeting
VALUATION
?
its 12-month target price at S$1.10. Tat Hong has underperformed the FSSTI, with
share price declining 35.1% ytd against the index?s -3.6%, as several brokers
downgraded their earnings forecasts and target prices following two quarters of
weak earnings.
Tat Hong is trading at forward PE of 11.1x and P/B of 0.83x. Bloomberg estimatesINVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
?
services. It is the largest crane company in the Asia-Pacific region, supplying cranes
ranging from under 50 tonnes to 1,600 tonnes. Tat Hong has also aggressively
expanded its tower crane rental business in China and is the second-largest tower
crane company in the country.
Tat Hong provides crane rental, heavy lift, heavy haulage and equipment sales?
51%, 2Q14: -53%) as weaker economic outlook in Indonesia and Australia eroded
revenue from the crane rental and distribution businesses. These two segments
contributed 78.4% of the company?s top-line.
Tat Hong reported two sequential declines in quarterly net profits in FY14 (1Q14: -?
market and transportation expenses increase for the relocation of cranes under the
tower crane rental division. The company is also affected by unrealised foreign
exchange losses arising from inter-company loans and payables related to its
Indonesian operations due to a steep devaluation of the rupiah. Net profit of
S$16.4m in 1HFY14 made up only 23.3% of FY13 earnings.
The company faces cost pressures as wages continue to rise due to the tight labour?
transport income from Australia?s subdued mining and infrastructure activities.
Gross margin from the segment retreated to 52.0% from 56.6% in 1QFY14 on
higher labour costs despite an improvement of utilisation rate in the quarter.
Revenue from the distribution segment (40.5% of 2QFY14 revenue) also fell 17%
yoy to S$75.0m due to an economic slowdown in Australia and reduced excavator
sales in Indonesia.
Crane rental?s revenue fell 14% yoy to S$70.3m in 2Q14 due to weaker specialisedOUR VIEW
?
0.98x, any increase in earnings will largely be dependent on the Australian?s
economic growth, which has remained muted after reporting a seasonally adjusted
0.6% in 3Q13. Its Reserve Bank also revised down the country?s growth forecasts
for 2014 and 2015 after it said mining investment was set to fall off at a faster-thanexpected
pace next year.
While Tat Hong is now trading at a 15.7% discount to its 3-year average P/B ofKEY FINANCIALS
Year to 31 Mar (S$m) FY11 FY12 FY13 2Q13 2Q14
Net Turnover 584.2 719.8 836.9 216.0 185.3
Gross Profit 208.5 263.0 314.9 80.3 68.1
EBITDA 122.2 153.5 192.5 48.8 44.0
EBIT 62.9 83.9 111.3 28.8 22.5
Net Profit 26.0 42.3 70.4 17.3 8.2
EPS (cts) 4.56 7.42 11.62 3.01 1.28
P/E (x) 19.3 11.9 7.6 - -
P/B (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.7 2.8 - -
Net Margin (%) 4.4 5.9 8.4 8.0 4.4
Net Gearing (%) 60.8 63.4 60.1 56.9 55.8
Interest cover (x) 3.3 3.7 4.4 - -
ROE (%) 23.6 23.0 29.3 - -
Source: Tat Hong, Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
Tat Hong?s 2QFY14 results remained weak as expected. Revenue fell 14.2% YoY to S$185.3m while operating profit declined by 33.9% to S$18.6m.
Despite the poorer showing, management declared an interim dividend of 1 S cent vs. 1.5 S cents last year. Entering 2HFY14, we expect Tat Hong?s performance to stay weak. Its Australian operations are unlikely to produce any turnaround until early FY15 (at its earliest) as sentiment remains poor. ...
Nonetheless, some positives from stability in Singapore, Hong Kong and China operations should help to cushion some of the declines. As the street had factored in expectations for a weakened performance, we should not see sustained selling pressure on the counter.
Adjusting our forecasts downwards slightly, our fair value falls to S$0.90 (S$0.96 previously). Maintain HOLD.
relax.. every expanding company has debt. Even Singtel has debt..
And the management are trying to bring the debt down, at least the management is responsible. :)
They are generating positive cash flow, so no worries. UNLESS, one day we find that they are burning the cash away with high debt, then alarm bear will sound, and that will only happens if the world goes into recession affecting their crane business.
nicely closed above important resistance line @0.92 , this week sure see above $1. hahahha.....
my policy: Buy at near 52 weeks low and buy when everyone is selling :)
Just 3 mths ago, some brokerage are recommending a buy with around TP of $1.50. So if we bought based on the buy recommendation, we are doomed.
Now they are recommending a sell with TP from 78 cents to $1.12. So buy when everyone is selling and when price has reached almost 52 weeks low.
Dun forget the recent announcement of restructuring of Singapore operation and the impending one off gain from disposal of land at 11 Gul Ave and confirmation of JV in Myanmar..
relax pal, I dun look at the Tech side, I look at the fundamental.. :)
For me, I dun mind waiting for a few mths. But I believe in Vertikal comments. Wow.. a few hundred lots? as in 500 lots?
http://www.vertikal.net/en/news/story/18102/
Quote: Vertikal Comment
While the numbers do not look great for the quarter, a good deal of this is timing related, although Australia is a significant part of the business and with the Chinese economy slowing, Australia is likely to be affected.
Tat Hong has very good geographic spread across Asia and will almost certainly benefit from buoyancy in other parts of the region and is likely to meet its full year forecasts in spite of the slow start.
TH is now down trend....hard to attract ppls to buy....
Nowadays are group retailers trade together with the brokers cum SHIFU......
They only buy when they believe are Uptrend.....unless a sudden push up cross the 92cents....strong resistant and break the 50MA....
Let's hope....vested since 87cents.........few hundred lots.......accumulated
Tat Hong has been bashed down due to one quarter of bad results. This is not the first time Tat Hong having bad quarters. In Feb 2011, also bad quarter but eventually results return to normal and so did the share price.
Is always a better choice to buy when everyone else is selling than buying when everyone is buying. :)
I forsee their results will return to normal based on
1) Management taking pro-active steps to remedy the drop in profit
- Shifting some operations to Johor
2) A one time gain from disposal of a piece of land at 11 Jul Ave.
3) The company bought 2 land parcel in Iskandar Malaysia, may see capital appreciation later
4) Australia new PM Abbott has promised to spend billions in infrastructure which will benefit Tat Hong
5) China economy is getting better
6) Venturing into Myanmar , which is a growth monster
As and when results return to normal level, share price will go back to $1.20 easily.
Anyway there is a article that is positive on Tat Hong. http://www.vertikal.net/en/news/story/18102/
Quote: Vertikal Comment
While the numbers do not look great for the quarter, a good deal of this is timing related, although Australia is a significant part of the business and with the Chinese economy slowing, Australia is likely to be affected.
Tat Hong has very good geographic spread across Asia and will almost certainly benefit from buoyancy in other parts of the region and is likely to meet its full year forecasts in spite of the slow start.
Of course there are a few analyst which issue sell recommendation due to the one bad quarter. Maybank and one other I cant remember.
I think overall is a risk worth to take to buy Tat Hong under 90 cents..