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Haha. You sound like you know nuts about the watch game.
RichardTeo ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 12:33) Posted:
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I just joined on bandwagon, lets play together
You mean wait for a few more days of share buyback, to confirm the upward direciton, then jump in to join?
or
wait for a few more days of share buyback, then short?
or
wait for a few more days of share buyback, then short?
muifan ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 13:44) Posted:
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hopefully there will be more sharebuybacks in the next few days...
then the game begin haha
then the game begin haha
choonoohc ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 13:42) Posted:
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Wny not take part in the game?
Fundamentally, its very cheap.
Fundamentally, its very cheap.
muifan ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 13:37) Posted:
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relax....let the bb play it out...
enjoy the game..
enjoy the game..
RichardTeo ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 13:33) Posted:
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RichardTeo,
Care to share which stock you looking at / buying now that is less than 15X?
Care to share which stock you looking at / buying now that is less than 15X?
RichardTeo ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 12:33) Posted:
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thank you for info..
public float of only 20%
public float of only 20%
choonoohc ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 13:27) Posted:
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In my memory, the one and only time THG bought back shares from the market was during the worst of the COVID crisis (1st half-2020), that was bought very cheaply around 60 cents.
That the company is buying back at $1.32 yesterday - is indeed very interesting.
That the company is buying back at $1.32 yesterday - is indeed very interesting.
The risk of brands integrating forward and selling straight to customers has always been there and will always be there.
One has to make his own assessment and judgement.
This risk was loudest 5-10 years ago when the listed watch brands emabrked on opening their own mono-brand boutiques. And then a glut of inventory flood the industry and then the brands have since receded.
Unitl today, the big three, Rolex, PP, AP have not indicated an interest to open their own mono-brand boutiques. These brands are non-listed, family-owned. They do not have pressure to open retail shops to boost short-term profits.
Will brands really benefit if they integrate forward? Would they not earn a higher ROE if they focus on their core business of maunfacturing watches and maintaing their brands? Why not just leaev the less profitable, more competitive part of the value chain to be done by other partners?
One has to make his own assessment and judgement.
This risk was loudest 5-10 years ago when the listed watch brands emabrked on opening their own mono-brand boutiques. And then a glut of inventory flood the industry and then the brands have since receded.
Unitl today, the big three, Rolex, PP, AP have not indicated an interest to open their own mono-brand boutiques. These brands are non-listed, family-owned. They do not have pressure to open retail shops to boost short-term profits.
Will brands really benefit if they integrate forward? Would they not earn a higher ROE if they focus on their core business of maunfacturing watches and maintaing their brands? Why not just leaev the less profitable, more competitive part of the value chain to be done by other partners?
Hello, thank you for sharing. Have you received any insider news about Rolex?s plan to cancel distribution rights to THG? I believe the cancellation of any distribution rights to any company will also hurt the company.
RichardTeo ( Date: 17-Jun-2021 12:00) Posted:
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The ccompany is also adding freehold properties to their portfolio recently
When is the last time the chairman and company buyback shares ?
Might be another hongfok play
When is the last time the chairman and company buyback shares ?
Might be another hongfok play
The company began to buy back its own company shares, something is brewing
If analysts start covering The Hour Glass, what could valuations look like?
Perhaps:
Perhaps:
- FY2021 underlying earnings = S$92M (with adding back of S$10M fair value loss on investment properties)
- But investing/valuation should be about one' s belief about where the company will be in the future
- So assuming 3% earnings growth per year, Year10 net profit would be S$124M, average net profit over 10 years would be ~S$110M (for a round number)
- As an owner, THG would earn me on average S$110M per year for next 10 years
- Ascribing 15X PE to S$110M = the business has a value of = S$1,650M
- Why 15X? I don feel that one should use 15X when one is considering to BUY (margin of safety considerations). But I don think that one should sell unless it reaches at least 15X (let a good business/investment compound and enjoy the ride considerations)
- Adding net cash of ~S$140M (as at Mar2021) to S$1,650M = the company is worth = S$1,800M (for a round number)
- I do not add the value of THG' s investment properties because THG does not have a intention to realise their value through selling them, rather THG would likely covert them into boutiques for its core business.
- S$1,800M divide by 704M shares = $2.50 per share.
Another cover article by The Straits Times on The Hour Glass today.
The last time it happened in March, the stock jumped by about 10cents on the day.
The last time it happened in March, the stock jumped by about 10cents on the day.
For Jan-April 2021, swiss watch exports to Singapore was CHF 407M. Singapore ranked 5th in the world for swiss watch exports!
- Recovered sharply from the same period in 2020
- Even surpassing the pre-covid period in 2019 (+4.6%) !!
- Recovered sharply from the same period in 2020
- Even surpassing the pre-covid period in 2019 (+4.6%) !!
The Hour Glass
On May 24, The Hour Glass executive chairman Henry Tay Yun Chwan acquired 120,000 shares of the company for a consideration of S$127,000.
At an average price of S$1.06 per share, this increased his total stake in the company from 62.94 per cent to 62.95 per cent.
He has been the executive chairman of the specialist retailer of luxury watches since October 1987 and has served as an executive director since August 1979.
Correction, even at S$1.50 (20% upside from current S$1.25), trailing PE is a low 9.9X.
As its market capitalisation increases and the stock attracts more attention, the low PE will pulls in value/fundamental analysis investors.
As its market capitalisation increases and the stock attracts more attention, the low PE will pulls in value/fundamental analysis investors.
| Share price (S$) | 1.50 | |
| No. of shares (M) | 704 | 703,981,880 shares as at 31Mar2021. |
| Mkt cap (S$' M) | 1,056 | |
| Net cash (S$' M) | (143) | Net cash of S$143M as at 31Mar2021. |
| Mkt cap less Net cash (S$' M) | 913 | |
| PE | ||
| FY2021 PATMI (S$' M) | 82 | 11.1X |
| FY2021 Underlying PATMI (S$' M) (Add back ~S$10M fair value loss on investment properties) |
92 | 9.9X |
If you thought The Hour Glass stock had a good year, Watches of Switzerland is trading at PE of 50X.
To value The Hour Glass at 15X (about S$1.50) would not be demanding at all.
As its market capitalisation and daily trading volumes expand, it could attract the attention of institutions, and it would not be surprising for the stock to be rerated to 15X.
To value The Hour Glass at 15X (about S$1.50) would not be demanding at all.
As its market capitalisation and daily trading volumes expand, it could attract the attention of institutions, and it would not be surprising for the stock to be rerated to 15X.
Popular watches are sold even before they reach the display case. The demand is crazier than ever.